Skip to main content

Reassessing the New Hampshire Senate Race Odds, Who's Really Ahead?

On October 27, I was mocked for suggesting Donald Bolduc could beat Democrat  incumbent Maggie Hassan in the New Hampshire Senate election. Let's check in on that race.
  • Author:
  • Publish date:
538 New Hampshire Senate Forecast as of Nov. 4, 2022, AT 12:43 PM

538 New Hampshire Senate Forecast as of Nov. 4, 2022, AT 12:43 PM

Did Republican Odds of Winning the Senate Jump By One Seat or Three?

What's changed since my October 27 post Did Republican Odds of Winning the Senate Jump By One Seat or Three?

Quite a bit actually.

  • Nate Silver had Democrats winning the Senate 54-46, now Republicans 54-46
  • Nate Silver had Democrats winning Pennsylvania 60-40, now Democrats winning 53-47
  • Nate Silver had Democrats winning Georgia 51-49, now Republicans winning 57-43

Spotlight New Hampshire 

Regarding New Hampshire, I am up from saying "Really!?" three times then to five times now.

Incredibly, Nate Silver has only moved slightly from Hassan 78-22 favorite to Hassan 73-27 despite a massive shift in the polls.

October 26: Which Polls Are Influencing New Hampshire

538 New Hampshire Polls as of OCT. 26, 2022, AT 8:43 PM

538 New Hampshire Polls as of OCT. 26, 2022, AT 8:43 PM

I brought New Hampshire into my radar based on the then most recent poll. 

Check out what has happened since.

November 4: Which Polls Are Influencing New Hampshire

538 New Hampshire Polls as of Nov. 4, 2022, AT 12:43 PM

538 New Hampshire Polls as of Nov. 4, 2022, AT 12:43 PM

I believe it's important to take note of trends and shifts heading into the final days. So does Silver, in theory, but not so much in practice. 

If you average those latest polls you get Hassan +0.75. Does that really translate to 73-27 odds for Hassan?

I suggest not. But let's dig further into that A- Nate Silver Rating for Emerson College

Emerson College 2020 Polls vs Results 

Polls vs results from 538 Nate Silver

Polls vs results from 538 Nate Silver

I weeded out primaries and special elections taking the first 8 general election results for Emerson College posted by 538.

Scroll to Continue

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

Emerson College Synopsis 

  • In 7 of 8 general election results, Emerson overestimated performance by Democrats.
  • The average overall estimate by Emerson, including ME-1 is 5.5 percentage points in favor of Democrats.
  • The average of the 7 Republican misses is 6.9 percentage points.

This translates into an A- rating for Emerson College.

On the "strength" of that "accuracy", Nate Silver says the odds are 73-27 for Hassan.

When I brought up this on October 27, someone on Twitter told me the odds of Donald Bolduc winning was zero. Unfortunately, that Tweet is now missing in action.

I did find this one.

"Libertarians & Free Staters will not be voting for Bolduc, no matter how full of crap Hassan is."

Really?!

The WSJ notes "Mr. Bolduc still doesn’t have any money. His campaign has raised a paltry $2.2 million and spent $1.9 million. Ms. Hassan’s campaign has raised $38.2 million and spent $36 million. Despite being outgunned financially, Mr. Bolduc has managed to tie the race going into the final weekend."

I was discussing this possibility over a week ago.

I do not know what the odds are, but I do know they are not 73-27 against Bolduc given these trends. 

Nate Silver Admits He's a Lagging Indicator, Declines a Bet on Senate Outcome

In case you missed it, please note Nate Silver Admits He's a Lagging Indicator, Declines a Bet on Senate Outcome

This is not a question of "Really?!" anymore. Rather it's clear BS by Nate Silver's model.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

Please Subscribe!

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish