In the U.K. the Tories were crushed in the UK at the hands of Labour. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party wins 13 first ever seats.
The Wall Street Journal reports U.K. Labour Party On Track for Landslide Victory, Says Exit Poll
Britain’s Labour Party is on course to win a landslide election victory, according to an exit poll published Thursday, as voters look set to hand its leader Keir Starmer one of the biggest parliamentary majorities in British history and place a center-left government into Downing Street for the first time in 14 years.
The exit poll predicted that Labour will win 410 of the 650 seats in parliament. The ruling Conservative Party is on course to win just 131 seats, likely the worst result in its 190-year history and a massive reversal on its victory in the last election in 2019. A clutch of other, smaller parties are also tipped to do well, as voters become disillusioned with mainstream politics.
While final results won’t be known until Friday morning, exit polls have proved an accurate guide in past elections—down to within a few seats for each party. The poll, commissioned by Britain’s leading broadcasters, asked up to 20,000 voters at a sample of 133 polling stations to fill in a replica ballot of how they just voted.
The exit poll also suggested that the upstart anti-immigration party Reform UK siphoned a substantial number of votes from the Tories and won 13 seats. The party, led by Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage, is due to have more seats in parliament than the Scottish National Party, whose vote share appears to have collapsed. Farage has said he would use what would be his first ever seat in parliament to try to draw like-minded lawmakers from what is left of the Conservative Party and form a new right-wing voting bloc.
While Reform got far fewer seats than the Tories, pre-election polls showed it could capture about 15-17% of the popular vote, only a few points shy of the Tories at about 20%. That split the Conservative vote and likely cost the Tories dozens of seats, analysts said.
“Much of the damage to the Conservative Party tonight is being done by Reform, even if Labour is the beneficiary of that,” said John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde who managed the exit poll.
For the first time since records began in 1955, British households are, when adjusted for inflation, on average poorer after a parliamentary term, according to the Resolution Foundation, a London think tank. Brexit, meanwhile, has proved a disappointment to many of its supporters. It ended the free movement of other Europeans allowed to move to the U.K. for work, but immigration rose anyway to record highs in 2022 and 2023 and is only slowly falling back.
Unlike some countries in Europe such as France and Germany that are seeing the rise of far-right parties, Britain will tilt to the left. Not that people may notice a major shift: Starmer has moved the party sharply toward the center in recent years, shedding its more radical policies and members, and has promised to continue Britain’s pro-U.S. foreign policy, including continued support for Ukraine and Israel.
“I think the British public, now, is fed up with lies, deceit, corruption, the establishment,” said Peter Lee, a 73-year-old in southern England. Lee said he planned to vote for Reform to see if the party can deliver lower immigration, which reached record levels under the Conservatives, despite their pledge to bring it down. “Whether it’s to do with Brexit, Covid, the Ukraine war. It’s just lies after lies,” Lee said.
Record Victory With Low Approval
Despite being on track for a record victory, Starmer’s approval ratings are negative in many polls, as trust in politicians more widely sits at record lows. A YouGov poll showed 48% of those who planned to vote for Labour said it was to get rid of the Conservatives. The next most popular answer was to make way for change at 13%. Just 5% said it was because of Labour’s policies.
Now What?
A big challenge for Starmer and Labour is they won’t have much money to spend to improve public services such as the healthcare system and an aging network of railways.
“You’re stuck with a cake that isn’t growing, so how do you cut up the cake to give people more of what they want?” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics.
Starmer, trying to shed Labour’s image as a party that taxes and spends too much, has offered only targeted tax increases to patch up the nation’s public services and is pledging to keep government debt in check. He and the likely next chancellor, Rachel Reeves, are planning to cut red tape to build more houses; reduce immigration; create a fund to accelerate the build-out of green-energy infrastructure; and make it easier for people to get appointments in the health system.
Throw the Bums Out
The overriding theme in the UK, just as we saw in the European Parliament elections and especially in France, is “Throw the Bums Out”.
For discussion of the European Parliament elections please see Marine Le Pen Set for Record Win, Macron Calls Snap French Election
For discussion of French elections, please see President Macron’s Party Blown Out in First Round of French Parliament Elections
I expect a similar throw the bums out event in the US in November, at least for the top spot. If there are coattails, it could be widespread.
Farage won 5 seats, not 13, you are quoting the exit poll.
The real story is this:.
1. Labour didn’t win; the Tories lost:
Labour won with only 34% of the vote, and the turnout was down to 59.9%, meaning that Labour was voted for by only 20% of the population, which is less than Blair in 1997.
In both cases they didn’t do that well in terms of actual votes, but the Tory vote collapsed.
2. Distorted disenfranchisement:
Farage got 5 MPs with just over 4 million votes. Labour got over 400 MPs with just over 9 million votes.
Farage got just over 14%, with 5 MPs
The LibDems got 12%, with 71 MPs
And on ot goes, the disenfranchisement of Reform voters is huge.
3. Reform is the real opposition in England:
Reform took a lot of votes in Northern and Eastern working class constituencies, over 100 seats they are second place, within striking distance of Labour in its heartlands.
The Tories are more vulnerable to LibDems in the South and West. It is very realistic for Reform to increase their number of MPs to LibDem levels in the next election. Many Labour MPs have small majorities.
4. Scottish & Welsh nationalists are dead:
The SNP collapsed after years of obnoxious misrule culminating in a corruption scandal.
This plays a large part in Labour’s return.
5. The Tories are on life support:
Most of the remaining Tories are the ones whose “one nation” garbage the voters rejected. There is not much incentive for the Tories to continue. Half are LibDems, and half are Reform, and none will have a career in government. There’s not much point in the Tory party any more since it moved to the left of Labour! Defections are a real possibility.
Keir Starmer is a neoliberal much like Tony “the poodle” Blair. Blair is viewed as a failed politician in the UK.
The conservatives, i.e., the “Right” are not only the group to split apart with Farage. Labour has also split because Starmer has basically said to the “Left” within Labour it is my way or the highway so Corbyn and others have done a Snagglepuss and exited stage left (pun intended). For those too young and inclined to get the Snagglepuss line, try your favorite search engine for edification.
Since the Brits have a winner-take-all in the parliamentarian elections, this split by Labour is more devastating than the proportional representation in the French elections. Why? Labour may need to coalition build to form a government. Normally the Tories and Labour secure enough votes on their own without requesting the Green, Liberal, etc., parties to form a coalition and join the cabinet in the process.
Starmer is a covert “Pabloist” Marxist, and a Davos minion.
Actually just listening to Alex Mercouris
The takeaway here is that the Conservatives who used to get 13.5 million votes got HALF that number. Something jjust over 6.5 million in this election
Labor, which won a landslide number of seats in the last 3 elections won 12.8, 10.6 and now 9.6 million votes or something like that
In other words, a landslide in seats while they got nearly a MILLION FEWER votes
Yes, exactly like Blair.
2024 and 1997 results were a result of vote collapse.
A progressive, liberal Government in Britain.
What could possibly go wrong.
Given that France and much of the rest of the EU is heading in Farage’s direction, the next 5 years are going to be an interesting challenge. Labour is a coalition, and under attack from Farage. Labour does not have the support it appears to have. They could face a death of a thousand cuts.
Robert La Follette, a progressive farmer from WI, got 17% of the votes. In WWI farmers expanded capacity. When the war was over commodities plunged. La Follette chewed up the D, when famers were 1/3 of the labor force on the way down to 1/6 and below, when farm lands were confiscated by the banks.
Industrial labor was rising. After 85 ballots in Madison Sq Garden the D chose Al Smith. It was : Al Smith of NY and senator Couzen vs Ford, Edison, Firestone, Dawes and Coolidge, who lost a son in July 1924.
“Thrown” is the incorrect word which was correctly spelled in the piece. But, it is irritating to see typos in a TITLE.
Reminds of the the US election of 1992 where Ross Perot ran as a third party and sucked enough votes from George Bush Sr. that Bill Clinton was able to win the presidency with only 42% of the votes.
Also in France the Left was able to use Le Pen as a spoiler to keep the Right divided and impotent. It started with Mitterrand and has continued to this day.
Walk me through what would have happened from January 1993 to today if Poppy had been re-elected.
Can’t know since it didn’t happen. Maybe it would be a paradise now or maybe a complete hell or even somewhere between.
The US would have had a lot more charts and graphs informing the public of every step while the Congress continued borrowing the country into oblivion.
I thought the 1990’s were a pretty good decade for the US. There were no major wars, Russia was a very weak and corrupt country in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union and President Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich were able to negotiate a “Contract with America”. Federal deficits started going down and there was a small annual surplus by the time Clinton left office. Some economists were predicting the end of the National Debt by 2010.
Clinton was a neoliberal that extended the neoliberal policies started originally by Carter but went on steroids with Reagan.
Peak earning years for the ‘baby boom’ generation (SSDI output at a minimum relative to tax input) combined with a housing boom and commercialization of “the internet” made the surplus. There was no chance for it to last.
Some economists, like some scientits, weren’t/aren’t very good.
‘I thought the 1990’s were a pretty good decade for the US..”
Decade X always appear pretty good from the vantage point of Decade X+n, for any n, in any society in free falling decay.
“Walk me through what would have happened from January 1993 to today if Poppy had been re-elected.”
Meaningfully: Exactly the same as happened when he did not get reelected.
Government bigger, more intrusive and totalitarian; debt higher; Americans poorer; American industry disappearing; the rankest of entirely Fed dependent clinical idiots being handed an ever greater share of the smaller and smaller pie of American real wealth which is left every year. Just so they; being incapable of anything else; can waste and destroy that too.
This shows you the problem with a 3rd party. Let’s say the LP had a strong candidate. You pull votes away from the Republicans and the Democrats get an easy win.
A problem with first past the post voting. But only immature or corrupt democracies use that
LOL
The Weimar Republic in Germany lasted less than 14 years. In its last 2 elections that could be considered reasonably fair, over a dozen political parties won representation in the Reichstag in1932.
Hitler, a rabble rouser, and general Ludendorff trial was in 1925. Ludendorff wasn’t charged. In the trial Hitler gained international fame pointing at the Weimar hyperinflation caused by France, GB and the US. Never the less he was sentenced to 5 years in jail. When he got out he decided to use elections to gain power. Within a few years Hitler turned Germany into an army with a country financed by wall street. Stalin did the same.
He got out of jail after 1 year. It was in jail that he wrote “Mein Kampf”. Weimar governments were very weak and divided. Any political party that received at least 1% of the vote was entitled to at least 1 seat in the Reichstag.
“But only immature or corrupt democracies use that..”
It worked real well back in the civilized era, when governance was almost entirely local. That’s the kind of environment it arose from; and the kind of environment for which it makes sense: Each, largely autonomous and independent, district sends a representative to a central government which does virtually nothing with anything resembling any direct local effects.
But to retain it in countries where even what one has for breakfast on any given day has to be approved by Dear Leader in Westminster Washington, is just yet another idiotic trait of failed states with populations singularly indoctrinated to now fail at anything and everything in every way always without any exception whatsoever.
Of course: The fundamental issue is not with 1st past the post………
So Lincoln and the 1860 election was a problem? The Republicans started out as 3rd party in 1856. By 1860 four parties contested for the presidency.
This a more of a problem with society and the political parties. That is to say the Left, Right and Independents all split and there is no consensus per se within the institutional Parties. It also a sign that both Parties are not aligned with the vast majority of the rank and file.
The consequence of 24/7 negative news is elections that are bad for the incumbent.
Compare today to the 1980s or 1960s. The world is safer, richer, and more stable. The news is a carnival of negativity.
Most people don’t actually pay much attention to reality, so we get a negative worldview from divisive negative news.
The world is more deeply indebted, the other side of richer, in a debt based system. The global Covid response was not an act of stability, nor is talk of a potential WW3. In local negative news this morning, a man in Huntington Beach jumped out of a car and started stabbing people waiting for the fireworks show. Two killed and four wounded, according to KNX News. Speaking of reality, i walked up to the end of the block to watch city fireworks show. There was a young homeless woman with a tent sitting in front of the corner business. Without solicitation i gave her a twenty. For her, currently, reality bites.
Obviously, the solution is background checks for knife purchasers, and registration and licensing.
Safer? In the 60’s or 80’s I never heard concerns about WWIII. Many boomers may now feel wealthier than their parents did a generation ago. But I doubt that the same can be said for young people today.
The 60s had the Cuban Missile Crises. If not for JFK and Khrushchev, both moderately liberal in their respective country, negotiations wouldn’t have been able to take place and the World most likely would’ve been blown up.
The 80s were not divided. There were protests but nothing close to the riots in the streets major urban centers and the women’s, civil, and antiwar protests in the 60s.
You can have any soft drink you want as long as it is Coke or Pepsi.
Until the fiat currency system is changed or fixed, it makes no difference who’s in charge.
Victoria Starmer is Jewish.
So?
So, what that supposed to be a plus or a minus for Labor?
“what” should read “is”.
A smart Jewish Lawyer behind the scene : a plus
Are you saying that without a smart Jewish lawyer behind the scenes, Labour would not have won? It is true that the Tories have a smart Jewish lawyer deficit. Everyone knows this.
The voters ousted Sunak. The pendulum shifted to the middle. They
Chose two smart lawyers to run the UK : a plus !
The Tories have a Smart Jewish Lawyer Gap that they must fill asap. We won the Cold War because our German scientists were better than the Russian German scientists. Tories should remember that.
Sputnik 1956 caused panic. Ike got heart attack. The Dow plunged, but took off like a rocket in 1957/58. Yuri Gagarin followed Laika in 1958. Valentina Tereshkova was the first female in space, in June 1963. She made fun of JFK, who was assassinated in Nov 1963.
After general Marshall lost China we blamed Stalin. We beefed up NATO against the USSR and expanded it. We tried communist spies. Joseph McCarthy told us that Stalin was running the white house. We owned the west and Stalin got the rest. He built the largest RE empire in the world, between Tokyo and Berlin. Both sides were happy with a tie. The “progressive” leaders adopted William Bullitt vaccine: socialism against communism.
UK voters sunk Sunak, a 5’7” Hindu and his wife Akshata Murty, and voted for an English gentleman that looks like them, psyched the foreigners out.
It’s very true that nobody wants a foreigner on that position. He only got there bu bring appointed not elected, and being wealthy and well-connected, and obedient doesn’t hurt.
Labour described as centre-left? That description fits the Tories as both parties support socialist policies like taxpayer funded welfare, healthcare, council housing etc.
True conservatives support minimal government, low taxes and private charity provided by family, friends and churches.
Open borders and social welfare at the same time are a recipe for high taxes and societal disorder. Let’s hope Farage can build a decent opposition to the current mess.
Labour’s policy announcement on borders is yo the right of the Tories, but don’t be fooled, they are only trying to bring Farage voters back in.
Try to go back to Mish posting from like 5 years ago. He was fully in Brexit camp supporting this every step and how this is going to benefit UL. Now 2024 we see results. People see that Brexit was a mistake and want blood. Check any UK polls, wast majority regret brexit and how this made them poorer.
Don’t expect anybody to admit being wrong though 🙂
Except the EU is no panacea itself. Look at what’s going on there (farmer protests in Holland, protests all over France, both France and Germany also radically changing their governments, run away immigration etc).
Whether or not they remained in the EU would have had no effect on their standard of living because it’s collapsing all over Europe too. Most of the backlash is against runaway immigration (a common theme everywhere in Europe now).
Just back from Europe after four weeks there. No signs of collapse to be seen. Those bloody Europeans have much better (and cheaper) food, walkable and crime free cities full of interesting monuments, and people seemed to enjoy life in a way that makes you wonder what’s wrong with us over here.
The European cities are not crime free but there is a lower percentage of racial minorities, at least for the time being. Europe, like the US has lost control of its immigration system. I doubt that the British Labor party will be able to fix this problem.
It’s very enjoyable.
There was a near recession in Europe in 2023 provoked by the energy disruptions caused by the Ukraine war and this year will have weak growth for the same reason but a slowdown does not mean a collapse, far from it.
It will be interesting to see what happens going forward over the next few years.
The rise of protectionism against Chinese EVs and other goods, the boondoggle that is the Green energy projects all over Europe etc and unchecked immigration. All those are going to be a drag on the European economy and the standard of living and none are going to be ‘over’ anytime soon.
Correction.
The “near” recession in Europe is caused by the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Had the pipelines been put into production Europe would be in much better condition. Europe would also have a future.
Currency devaluation is the real culprit since Brexit. Sovereignty is usually a bonus.
Misha was correct. Brexit was never a magic solution. What Brexit did is offer a choice of options not available while in the E.U. Unfortunately, Britain decided to stick with all the smothering policies and regulations imposed by the E.U. and then added an additional layer of homegrown regulations and bureaucracy on top. Of course that made things worse.
The U.K. voted for Brexit and then left a government in power that was opposed to it and all it represented. Stupidity will prevail whenever it is the choice that is made.
EG: When Germany began to deindustrialize because of its goofy energy policies, the U.K. said ….hey if you want to see really, really goofy energy policies just take a look at us. …..So the departing energy intensive industries moved to the U.S. despite their own pretty goofy policies because it was orders of magnitude better than what the U.K. imposed on itself after Brexit.
And not only will the U.K. continue to do so but under the government just elected will deliberately impoverish the country so as to double down on the current soul crushing energy policies. All the foregoing is not on Brexit or Misha. It’s on you.
My main point here is that 5 year ago we could see in this blog lots of articles on how Brexit is great and Mish took victory lap for being strong supported when it happened. Now 5 years later we see this post how election is to throw bums out. It is not true. It is about people discontent with Brexit.
But Mish is not mentioning it as he would have to admit to be wrong. I would expect more honesty with readers of this blog. If you are wrong, admit it or explain why you still think you are right, just this
Sorry, it’s not Brexit.
It’s rampant socialism avoiding necessary taxation and excessively borrowing other people’s (and children’s) money.
Brexet and policy decisions afterwards are mutually exclusive.
You need to consider the possibility that elements who opposed Brexit are in position to make decisions that will negatively affect the country in an effort to show how misguided it was to leave the EU.
As has been often noted – you can’t fix stupid.
And it doesn’t matter on which side of the ocean you reside.
Brexit was not a mistake, and the people don’t think that. They resent the betrayal of Brexit and the constant campaigning against the result by elites and their lackeys.
People voted Brexit to stop immigration, the Tories didn’t stop immy, and if Labour don’t, then Farage’s party will get bigger and take working class voters from Labour, rendering it a complete middle class party, not worthy of the name it bears. The EU is in decline.
I guess hope springs eternal that the next set of bums will be better than the last.
Seems like the Tories (or Conservatives) were very similar to the Labor Party as far as immigration, taxes, and spending.
So what does the Labor Party do now ? I recall how Bill Clinton had campaigned as a moderate in 1992 and in January 1995 the Republicans had a mandate in both houses of Congress.
If the Labor Party goes further left of how the Tories (or Conservatives) governed, then it may be as unpopular as the Tories now.
Seems like in a way the Labor Party is stuck at (or very close to) the center of the political spectrum, which Mister Mish alludes to within his article.
Maybe the Reform Party further aligns (or combines) with the Tories and in the next few years, they defeat the Labor Party.
Throw the bumbs out, exponentially increase the national debt, wash then repeat.
The contract between the political/oligarchy ruling class, and the ‘run over’ class, has been violated.
Elections,if they ever did, offer no hope.
Yea!
What’s happening is that working people are searching for leadership. And they’ll go thru the usual electoral suspects first, then start looking beyond that, and start the process of building a leadership in struggle, in the workplace, in schools, in their neighborhoods, on the street. This is an age of wars and revolution.
Billions and trillions in a country’s debt cannot be wished away even by the most able leader.
Disagree. First thing the Labour Party can do is tell the American Govt to F off. Second, prosecute Boris Johnson for war crimes. That disorderly drunken psychopath should be tried and hung.
You think a left wing party of the United Kingdom can tell the Democrat Party of the United States to go fuck off that easy (without any reprisals or hell to pay) ? Just hope that Trump wins because Kamala Harris would be worse for Europe than Biden.
Now go back and finish your Bass Ale, mate.
I think JK should be hung and tried.
Surely they should prosecute Blair first?!
How much did Tony Blair spend on the war in Iraq as Bush 43’s “poodle”.
“I think the British public, now, is fed up with lies, deceit, corruption.
That is all people are going to get from any party.
They are all sociopaths.
Watching the UK is like seeing our future here in the US if we don’t make some effective changes. Rentiers, runaway social spending costs, an overly militaristic foreign policy, and a lot of electors leeches combine to make a pretty bleak future for the average britisher.
Throw the bums out, or throw the puppets of the globalist bankster authoritarians out?
This would generally appear to be the opposite of what France and much of the rest of Europe are seeing … were the rebellion of the left for the right … really just a rebellion of whoever had the power?
In this case, that would seem to be exactly right. Not to mention Sunak made a fortune on Moderna stock during COVID. Not really a dime’s worth of difference between Labour and Conservative anymore.
The pick up of seats by Reform is the rightward move that you’re seeing elsewhere, it’s just a little more subtle and not as headline grabbing.
Britain seems to be suffering from the same deep state uniparty affliction that the US is. Hope that Hope and Change works for them. It won’t.
“Two cheeks of the same backside” – George Galloway
With the North Sea oil gone and desperate Russian oligarchs buying UK citizenships now exposed in the media, the UK has run out of “free” resources to exploit. UK government, Tory or Labor, will still be governing a nation whose time is running out.
They are going to have to make some hard decisions like some tightening of government spending.
They already did that 15 years ago, and that party was just thrown out yesterday. Didnt work too well.