We Have Numbers! (62% of them) Buttigieg in the Delegate Lead
Troy Price, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, released 62% of the numbers shortly after 4:00PM central.
Price does not know when the rest of the totals will come in.
From the FiveThhirtyEight Live Blog.
- With 62 percent reporting, the first alignment vote is Sanders 24 percent, Buttigieg 21 percent, Warren 19 percent, Biden 15 percent and Klobuchar 13 percent.
- The post-alignment vote is Sanders 26 percent, Buttigieg 25 percent, Warren 21 percent, Biden 13 percent, Klobuchar 12 percent.
- The state delegate equivalent distribution is Buttigieg 27 percent, Sanders 25 percent, Warren 18 percent, Biden 16 percent, Klobuchar 13 percent. Again, this is with only about three-fifths of the vote reporting.
Key 538 Comments
- So far, Biden is losing from the realignment process (likely due to missing the viability threshold in many caucuses) but gaining from the geographic distribution. Buttigieg is gaining from both. Sanders and Warren are gaining a bit from realignment but losing ground from their geographic concentration.
- For what it’s worth, these numbers are pretty close to the partial results that the Buttigieg campaign released — off by at most 1 percentage point. But the partial results the Sanders campaign released overshot his percentages in these early returns. For example, he claimed he had 29 percent in both the first-alignment vote and the post-realignment vote. In the actual results, he has 24 percent in the first-alignment vote and 26 percent in the post-alignment vote. (Again, I want to emphasize these are not the final results — just 62 percent of precincts are reporting.)
- Of the 1,099 precincts reporting, Buttigieg met the 15 percent threshold in 88 percent and Sanders in 77 percent.
Klobuchar Hurt Biden
Bernie did not do as well as expected. Yet, Biden did worse than expected.
I noted yesterday that “Klobuchar’s performance could be a real game changer in the final delegate allocation out of Iowa.”
Most of Klobuchar's vote came at the expense of Biden. Polls show Klobuchar supporters strong favored Biden as a second choice.
Her final alignment of 12.4% suggests she topped 15% in most of the districts.
The DNC set the floor at one delegate. Add in Michael Bloomberg and the next debate will have at least 6 candidates.
In case you missed it, please see Bernie Supporters Scream "Rigged System" Over Debate Rule Changes.
The DNC removed the contribution threshold requirement. This aided Bloomberg who is self-financed and thus was ineligible to be on the stage.
I expect Bloomberg to make the stage based on the new rules.
One of the new rules was immediate inclusion by winning at least one delegate.
Bloomberg will make it based on new national poll rules.
Klobuchar is highly likely to make the cut, but has not been awarded any delegates yet.
That rules change is for the Feb 19 Nevada debate. The next debate is February 7, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Coin Toss and SDE Update
There are roughly 2,000 SDEs in the Democratic primary but only 41 delegates total. Only a handful of SDEs involve a coin toss.
Yang with 14 SDEs will not get a delegate and will thus not make the Nevada debate.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock