Troy Price, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, released 62% of the numbers shortly after 4:00PM central.
Price does not know when the rest of the totals will come in.
From the FiveThhirtyEight Live Blog.
- With 62 percent reporting, the first alignment vote is Sanders 24 percent, Buttigieg 21 percent, Warren 19 percent, Biden 15 percent and Klobuchar 13 percent.
- The post-alignment vote is Sanders 26 percent, Buttigieg 25 percent, Warren 21 percent, Biden 13 percent, Klobuchar 12 percent.
- The state delegate equivalent distribution is Buttigieg 27 percent, Sanders 25 percent, Warren 18 percent, Biden 16 percent, Klobuchar 13 percent. Again, this is with only about three-fifths of the vote reporting.
Iowa Realignment
Key 538 Comments
- So far, Biden is losing from the realignment process (likely due to missing the viability threshold in many caucuses) but gaining from the geographic distribution. Buttigieg is gaining from both. Sanders and Warren are gaining a bit from realignment but losing ground from their geographic concentration.
- For what it’s worth, these numbers are pretty close to the partial results that the Buttigieg campaign released — off by at most 1 percentage point. But the partial results the Sanders campaign released overshot his percentages in these early returns. For example, he claimed he had 29 percent in both the first-alignment vote and the post-realignment vote. In the actual results, he has 24 percent in the first-alignment vote and 26 percent in the post-alignment vote. (Again, I want to emphasize these are not the final results — just 62 percent of precincts are reporting.)
- Of the 1,099 precincts reporting, Buttigieg met the 15 percent threshold in 88 percent and Sanders in 77 percent.
Klobuchar Hurt Biden
Bernie did not do as well as expected. Yet, Biden did worse than expected.
I noted yesterday that “Klobuchar’s performance could be a real game changer in the final delegate allocation out of Iowa.”
Most of Klobuchar’s vote came at the expense of Biden. Polls show Klobuchar supporters strong favored Biden as a second choice.
Her final alignment of 12.4% suggests she topped 15% in most of the districts.
The DNC set the floor at one delegate. Add in Michael Bloomberg and the next debate will have at least 6 candidates.
Rigged System
In case you missed it, please see Bernie Supporters Scream “Rigged System” Over Debate Rule Changes.
What Happened?
The DNC removed the contribution threshold requirement. This aided Bloomberg who is self-financed and thus was ineligible to be on the stage.
I expect Bloomberg to make the stage based on the new rules.
One of the new rules was immediate inclusion by winning at least one delegate.
Bloomberg will make it based on new national poll rules.
Klobuchar is highly likely to make the cut, but has not been awarded any delegates yet.
That rules change is for the Feb 19 Nevada debate. The next debate is February 7, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Coin Toss and SDE Update
There are roughly 2,000 SDEs in the Democratic primary but only 41 delegates total. Only a handful of SDEs involve a coin toss.
Yang with 14 SDEs will not get a delegate and will thus not make the Nevada debate.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Heard something about Pete’s service history and how he received multiple dishonorable discharges.
One gets a discharge at the end of their service; one does not get multiple discharges. How do you think the US military works anyway? And I assume you would not know this since you are probably a russian troll, but the US military does not allow people to keep entering the ranks and trying over and over till they get it right.
Mayor Pete’s was service was both honorable and well decorated. But, repeating such things, especially when you could so easily have just looked it up for yourself shows you post shit and just want to slander people who actually deserve your respect.
Mish is a GARBAGE free zone so if you want to post shit I would recomend Faux Newz.
Calling everybody you don’t like a russian troll makes you look like an idiot.
One can certainly have multiple discharges if one had multiple periods of service.
(No idea what is Buttigieg’s case)
You may want to consider upping the credibility class of people you associate closely enough with to be hearing things from…..
If you want to say anything bad about the guy, it would rather be that he has so obviously structured his entire life around getting a perfect score on every single perceived test for presidential eligibility in the PC era, that he almost comes across as a caricature of the perfectly clean politician.
As his opposition dig deeper, they just might find that he started helping little old ladies cross the street at the age of 5. And by 6, traveled singlehandedly, by way of zero carbon footprint bicycle, to poorer neighorhoods, in order to ensure he wasn’t limiting himself to only help old ladies as privileged as himself…. Or, at least that is no less likely than they finding any dishonorable anything in his carefully groomed past.
But regardless, a bit cloying or not, and still obviously naive enough to believe government is some sort of useful institution, worthy of being held in some sort of regard, he’d be the one I would want for President out of this bunch. Klobuchar comes across as a bit too pitbullish. And the rest are either delusionally crazy, or just plain sleazy.
I thought the libertarian position is that a politician must have maximum entertainment value. Not sure if Pete fits that criteria.
In that case, I suppose “Pocahontas” would get the nod….. At least among the front runners.
Sounds to me like the queen will step in and take her rightful place.
Hillary 2032.
Go Booty Greg!
Looks like the candidates with the most presumed youth appeal, cleaned the old guard’s clock. That would leave me a bit concerned, whether I was Biden, Bloomberg, or even Trump.
Buttigieg Poppycock 2020 FTW!
Biden has huge black support. He is the big favorite in SC.
This can easily be a hung primary.
A hung primary means the superdelegates decide.