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What Are the Odds of an Inflation Inferno After the Midterm Elections

Republican odds in the midterm elections are improving but it's still an uphill battle in the Senate.
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538 Midterm Election Model

538 Midterm Election Model

If you are a republican or an independent who cannot stand what President Biden has done, polling trends are headed your way. The question is "fast enough?"

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Website assesses the odds.

How the Senate Forecast Has Changed 

538 Senate Forecast

538 Senate Forecast

How the House Forecast Has Changed 

538 House Forecast

538 House Forecast

House Stats 

  • There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives. 
  • A majority is 218. 
  • The current makeup is 224 Democrat, 213 Republican, 3 Vacant 

A net gain of five seats would flip the House and end Nancy Pelosi's leadership. 

Competitive House Races

538 Competitive House Races, annotations by Mish

538 Competitive House Races, annotations by Mish

House Analysis

  • If those races came in exactly as forecast, and no other races mattered, Republicans would only pick up a net of three seats and Democrats would hold the House.
  • Defining a close race as anything with 60 percent odds or less, Republicans have a chance of 8 additional flips (yellow highlights), with Democrats an additional 5 (blue highlights).

Not Shown But Significant

  • WI-3, 78 in 100 Chance of Flipping to Republicans
  • OH-13, 86 in 100 Chance of Flipping to Republicans 
  • CA-3, 84 in 100 Flipping to Republicans 

Factoring in the three additional Republican pickups, if all the races went as forecast, Republicans would pick up a net total of 6 seats, one more than necessary.

Wild Cards 

  • Turnout will matter. 
  • And so it seems does the Supreme Court ruling on abortion. Democrat odds shifted greatly after after the abortion ruling. 

Since the incumbent party usually picks up seats, and since the following seats are in generally republican states, TX-15, AK, and KS-3 are the places the 538 model may be overstating Democrat chances. 

Senate Odds 

538 Senate Races, annotations by Mish

538 Senate Races, annotations by Mish

Senate Analysis 

  • Control of the Senate will come down to no more than 7 races and most likely only 2, Nevada and Georgia.
  • Green highlights are very weak candidates Trump had big roles in selecting.
  • The blue checkmark is a likely flip.
  • If the forecast plays out according to the script, Democrats will pick up one more Senate seat and would then no longer need Senator Joe Manchin's vote to pass Progressive agenda.
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Admit it or not, Trump does not give a damn about the party. He backed extremely weak candidates who ran on blind allegiance to him and his Stop the Steal nonsense. 

Arizona governor Doug Ducey, a Republican is very popular. Because of term limits he will step aside. He wanted to run for Senate but didn't because Trump vowed to campaign against him, claiming Ducey did not stop the steal. Trump-backed Masters is likely to get hammered. 

In Georgia, Trump-backed Herschel Walker is involved in a major controversy. The pro-life Senate candidate is accused of paying for the abortion of a former girlfriend. Walker denies it, but Walker's son says it's true and his father should never have run. 

In Pennsylvania, a very weak Mehmet Oz won the Republican nomination based largely on allegiance to Trump. 

It's possible Oz or Walker win their races, but if so, it will be despite Trump, not because of Trump.

Inflation Inferno Scenario

If Democrats hold the House and Senate, expect a barrage of highly inflationary free money handouts will pass Congress via reconciliation maneuvers.

Do not dismiss this possibility outright. 29 percent is nothing to sneeze at. Even if you think Silver is way off, even 15 percent chances happen 15 percent of the time by definition. 

Importantly, it's not national motivation to vote that matters. Turnout in a mere 24 districts will decide whether Progressives unleash inflation or not. 

I have no way of assessing turnout in the districts and states that matter, nor does anyone else. 

Q: What are the odds of a Progressive inflation inferno?
A: The same as the odds of Democrats holding the House and Senate. My guess is about 25%. 

Closer Than Expected Isn't a Win

Mish Forecast

The administration is going totally ape in energy policy, and Independents are more likely than not, in aggregate, to figure this out. 

The abortion issue has sailed. It's up to states, not Congress to settle. 

Factoring in typical Republican mid-term gains, my House forecast is Republicans pick up 9 seats and the Senate remains tied at 50-50. 

I mentally place Nevada in the Republican column. If so Trump will have Republicans cost seats in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

But good riddance to Nancy Pelosi. I expect she will soon be gone as speaker.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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