Don’t Miss a Post. Subscribe now.

GDPNow Forecast Unfazed by Weak Retail Sales and Strong Inflation

October 14, 2022

•

5:47 pm

•

82 comments

•

Economics

GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish

On October 5, I commented GDPNow Forecast Rises to 2.7 Percent Annualized Despite Weak Economic Data

Today, despite weak retail sales data, especially inflation-adjusted, the model held firm.

I have commented many times that it’s not the data that matters but what the model expected vs the data, but on at least two occasions recently, the model anticipated weak data, even expecting worse than happened.

Base Forecast vs Real Final Sales

The real final sales (RFS) number is the one to watch, not baseline GDP. RFS ignores changes in inventories which net to zero over time.

The base GDPNow forecast is 2.8 percent and the RFS forecast is currently 2.9 percent.

If this is in the ballpark toss aside recession calls.

October 14 GDPNow Forecast

Please consider the latest GDPNow Forecast for the third quarter of 2022, emphasis mine.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.8 percent on October 14, down from 2.9 percent on October 7. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 1.3 percent to 1.2 percent.

I am struggling with that paragraph and the huge surge earlier this month.

The GDPNow model expects real personal consumption expenditures of 1.2 percent despite very weak retail sales.

Factoring in Inflation, Retail Sales Remain Very Weak in September

*Retail sales data from Commerce Department, CPI adjustment by Mish*

In July, real retail sales fell 0.4 percent. In August, they rose 0.3 percent, and in September they fell another 0.4 percent.

Yet GDPNow estimates a 1.2 percent rise.

For discussion, please see Factoring in Inflation, Retail Sales Remain Very Weak in September

Question on GDP Deflator

A reader asked me what deflator the GDPNow model uses for inflation in its forecast.

I have a reply from Pat Higgins, the GDPNow model creator, emphasis mine.

Hi Mish – there is not an implied GDP deflator, or at least not one that gets more accurate as data is accumulated over the quarter. For the monthly spending data that has not been released, the model only forecasts the real (price deflated) series, not the nominal series and its deflator.

For the nominal spending data the model does have, price deflators are constructed, when feasible, using standard monthly price releases like the CPI, PPI, and import/export price releases. The model does forecast quarterly GDP subcomponent price deflators using lagged quarterly data and a BVAR model so that it can put something into the chain-weighting formulas. It doesn’t use PPI/CPI/import+export price releases to improve those forecasts.

Using the correct deflators isn’t usually a first order issue if you are only forecasting one quarter into the future; i.e. you generally get close to the same thing forecast of the real series if you assume prices are unchanged from the previous quarter as you do if you plug in a reasonable forecast of the price deflators. So we don’t put those quarterly subcomponent price forecasts into the spreadsheet because those aren’t designed to be as accurate as possible, especially near the end of the quarter.

Best regards,

Pat

Blue Chip Forecast

Evolution chart from GDPNow, arrow annotations by Mish

I am not the only one struggling with the GDPNow surge. The Blue Chip professional forecast consensus is much lower and trending lower. Its data is as of October 6, thus not including today’s retail sales numbers.

Typically, the GDPNow model starts out very volatile then tends to be close to the mark by the end of the quarter.

As it stands now, I believe GDPNow is way high, but we still will have skirted recession if the Blue Chip assessment is correct.

Still, the Blue Chip range is very wide, from less than zero to about 2.7 percent.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

Please Subscribe!

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Comments to this post are now closed.

82 Comments

Newest

Oldest Most Voted

worleyeoe

3 years ago

Mish, again, you spend a lot of time trying to debunk GDPNow. But thus far, it’s provided a very accurate account of how resilient the US economy has been. For the millionth time, we’ll find ourselves in a REAL recession when job go negative. Until then, we’re just spending through all the excess Fed & Congressional stimulus.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to worleyeoe

Somewhere in the swamp of comments here, I mentioned a friend that owns a business, 4 years ago he broke his all time record for incoming business going back decades, now he has that same amount of business in backlog, he can’t get help.

Those customers are contracted and prepaid through credit, all at lower rates, obviously.

So, for now, he’s doing great, in a year, not so much, this illustrates why Fed policy is latent, it takes months to really see the impact.

vanderlyn

3 years ago

the folks calling for recession past 6 months have been dead wrong. if this is a recession, jobs jobs jobs, businessmen i know crushing it…………..rates coming up so savers can make a little bit, like normal decades past, please give me more of this “recession”. the smart traders and investors and businessmen always deal with reality. not what they prognasticated would happen and which turned out to be a false view of future.

vanderlyn

3 years ago

huge problem with GDP. gov spending is huge percent. i don’t think it’s indicative of health of a nation’s wealth creation.

Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

As Scott Grannis says: “And don’t forget that 3rd qtr. nominal GDP currently is rising by leaps and bounds”

Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

The problem with macro is that
economists are duped into believing banks are intermediaries. And bankers can’t
dispel the illusion that they are not lending deposits. After all, the bankers
have to maintain a positive balance of payments, stabilizing their assets with
liabilities.

Keynes’ “optical illusion” is that banks don’t lend deposits.
Ergo, all bank-held savings are frozen (reducing Vt).

See: “Should
Commercial Banks Accept Savings Deposits?” Conference on Savings and
Residential Financing 1961 Proceedings, United States Savings and loan league,
Chicago, 1961, 42, 43

Basically, the economy is being run in
reverse. It now has a credit/investment imbalance. S ≠ I with the
payment of interest on interbank demand deposits. There’s a lack of investment opportunities
(secular stagnation or Martin Wolf’s “chronically deficient AD”).

Six000mileyear

3 years ago

I had a weekly status report with one of our technical contractors. I enquired about semiconductor supply chain issues. We were aggressive to buy what we thought the design needed for engineering development and FDA approvals. That strategy has left us in much better shape than other clients who designed first and then purchased components. Now our focus is production quantities, and some parts still have 52 week lead times. His response was much of that backlog was panic buying that will result in a lot of cancellation. Other backlog will free up because financially weak companies will cancel projects altogether. Only a handful of semiconductor companies demanded payment in full and no cancellation. Present and future semiconductor demand may not be what the media is reporting. Inflationary pressures look to dissipate over the next year.

Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

There’s a huge difference between theory and practice, i.e., between what’s possible, and what actually occurs. Mish demonstrates empiricism – the reality that we have to deal with. Economists tend to deal with abstractions, which over time tend to be disproved.

Take James Tobin: “But time deposits and deposit certificates, though not checkable, are close substitutes for transactions deposits in many respects. So are money market funds and other assets outside banks altogether.”

Monetary Policy – Econlib

Or like: Barnett, W. A. (1980). “Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Aggregation and Index Number Theory,” Journal of Econometrics 14: 11-48.

Reality was demonstrated by the G.6 Debit and Demand Deposit Turnover release. But it was a statistical stepchild. Unlike M3, it was discontinued for spurious reasons.

In our payment’s system, all the demand drafts drawn on DFIs, CUs, S&Ls cleared through DDs – except those drawn on MSBs, interbank & the U.S. government. I.e., income velocity, Vi, is a contrived figure. Vi, at times, moved in the opposite direction as Vt. It’s George Garvy’s transaction concept of money velocity that was empirical.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Hi Mish. I appreciate your attempts at GDP analysis.

I agree that whether or not we are in a recession is a moot point. We appear to be in for a prolonged period of slow growth in both the US and the world.

I would like to add a couple of discussion points on the world economy.

I see that Biden is now tripling down on Trump’s China policy. He is going to attempt to prevent the Chinese from acquiring the equipment needed to produce the semiconductor chips that can be used in their hi tech manufacturing, space program, military etc. Considering how much the world relies on Chinese manufacturing, this is going to further impact the global supply chains.

In addition, China has spent several years cracking down on the biggest growth area of their economy: the tech sector. The impressive success of Chinese tech led to amazing growth and the creation of many Chinese billionaires. It also led some of these billionaires to boldly say things the government did not appreciate. Hence the government crackdown on tech and the end of the amazing growth. Up until this crackdown, young Chinese aspired to follow in the footsteps of these billionaires. That is no longer the case, and as a result, the Chinese tech sector is now in quicksand and China is destined to enter a prolonged period of sluggish or slow growth, which will lead to some civil unrest, and harsher crackdowns. (I know that I am oversimplifying; for brevity.)

Russia is tiny, economically , compared to China, but it is now turning into North Korea. Any Russian with any sense and some skills is escaping the country as quickly as possible. The Russian economy (though small) is now in a rapid decline.

The bigger issue with Russia will be Putin’s attempts to disrupt worldwide infrastructure, in retaliation for much of the world condemning his invasion of Ukraine. Watch for more suspicious disruptions like Nordstream, German rail, electric transmission grids, other pipelines, internet lines mysteriously cut and so many others that have recently happened.

Europe is just as important to the world economy as China, and they are going to be severely hampered by the energy problem. Not to mention shortages of other critical materials .

In comparison, the US is in relatively good shape, but will not escape the effects from outside.

One industry that will continue to thrive in this slow growth environment will be oil and gas.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

We agree 99% of the time, but Trump was correct about China, just wrong to do it with tariff’s and his juvenile insults were foolishly counterproductive.

We need to become more self reliant again, as exemplified with Huawei’s abuse of individual security/privacy.

Decades ago I knew off-shoring was going to bite us, while there’s no denying the cost advantages of outsourcing labor, technology is an altogether different game.

One of the greatest boosts to modern technology was DARPA, it spawned creativity and competition right here at home, in fact, it’s the main reason Ukraine’s beating Russia right now.

We need technology breakthrough’s here, not in China, China will only become more dominant over us if we just let them do it for us.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

I agree.

When I mentioned Trump and Biden and their China policy, it was not to praise or complain. It was simply a statement of fact. Which means slower growth worldwide.

One thing the pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has taught us is to reduce our dependence on autocratic countries such as China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Diversify our supply chains. Encourage “some” production of critical materials at home. And build up strategic reserves of more critical materials.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

With oil, supply alters price and price is global, only one supplier with a small output can restrict supply enough to alter price.

That’s why EV’s are such a big deal, we don’t have to cater to terrorists and despots as we diminish dependance on oil.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Yes. But we are years away from having enough EVs to make an impact.

Same with renewable energy sources; battery and hydrogen storage as well. We will get there eventually, but its probably two decades away. Demand for oil is still increasing through the rest of this decade. Perhaps it will peak by the end of the decade.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

True, humor me by googling annual EV sales since 2010, notice what happened at around 2018.

(Or, look here – https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-sales-and-sales-market-share-of-electric-cars-2010-2021)

We’re not going to fill the void this year, no, but sales are growing exponentially, EV’s are now mainstream.

Unfortunately, OPEC knows this, they will bleed every drop they can, while they can.

worleyeoe

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

“but Trump was correct about China, just wrong to do it with tariff’s”

How do you constrain China without tarrifs? It can’t be done. What Trump should have done was put a 25% tax on EVERYTHING imported from China. All Biden’s chip embargo is going to do is force China to accelerate its own infrastructure or possibly even taking over Taiwan that much sooner. It’s not going to stop them from achieving their goal: world domination.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to worleyeoe

Chip’s has a lot to do with China’s Taiwan interest and America’s concern, China produces 25% global supply, Taiwan is 65%.

The problem with Tariff’s is that we pay them, they’re a tax at the border to us, not the Chinese.

If we had viable alternatives, yes, it would coerce consumers to the less taxed alternatives, China’s rapid wage/standard increases are the real solution.

We could look at other countries with lower wage standards, but there is no realistic way to hurt China in trade without hurting ourselves in the process. Tariff’s were just a way to make voters think we were “getting them back” while taxing us.

Honestly, I’d like to see us make the chips, but our labor cost is insanely disproportional to most of the world, even Europe.

MPO45

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

PapaDave,

You bring up some great points. I have long been trying to figure out what Iran, China, Russia and North Korea (to name a few) are actually trying to achieve in the world.

Let’s start with China. Why in the world is the leadership, CCCP, trying to constantly oppress the people? What do they think will happen if people are allowed to think and make choices? God forbid that thinking Chinese discover a cure for cancer, make better computer processors or invent a new form of energy but no “they must be oppressed” and conform to CCCP standards. It’s absurd and stupid.

Let’s move on to Russia. WTH is Putin trying to achieve at this point? Also oppress people and conform to some non-gay oppression standard? Bring back the Soviet Union because it was soooo successful (sarcasm)? What is the end goal here because what’s happening now is Putin is destroying Russia on so many levels and dimensions that it’s totally absurd? Again? What does Putin/Russia think will happen that he needs to invade Ukraine? The world comes to an end?

Iran – same thing. Women don’t want to wear hijabs any more but there is some magical mystical standard that says women need to have a scarf on their head even though they aren’t born with one. Another level of absurdity that seems to know no bounds. At least the people are finally starting to push back, god forbid they are allowed to make choices for themselves…oh the horror (more sarcasm).

The US – Well we have the bible thumping culture that desperately wants to shove Jesus down every American’s throat whether they want it or not along with their perverted interpretation of their magical mystical religious book but it doesn’t stop there, we have the new age order of wokeness that needs to be shoved down everyone’s throats so choose your poison wisely, it’s the Republican Taliban or Wokeness Taliban – there is really no difference.

I just don’t get how the world is going so insane. I do a lot of research on investments but lately I am researching to find somewhere on earth where I can be simple and free because all I want to do now is think for myself, I don’t need any “help” from any politician, political group or other idiot.

Sadly, this madness won’t stop here, it seems to be escalating into new levels of craziness every couple of years. I want out.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

Putin – crazy like a fox,

Back in 2010 or so I learned that Putin’s oligarchy, which is an amalgamation of the Russian mob and government, utilized “mirror trades” in the stock market to launder money, they’d buy penny stocks on one side, pump, then sell on the other.

In 2020, Putin intentionally flooded the oil market to bottom out oil prices, while he stated the goal was to bankrupt American oil companies at the time, I think he and his interests were positioning into oil futures for a plan to later invade Ukraine.

Neither Putin nor his oligarch’s care about Russia so much as they do about getting richer.

(I made a killing on that in 2020, I had a hunch when Zerohedge was obsessively spewing scare tactics that oil would “never rebound”.)

The CFTC is prohibited from disclosing futures positions to the public, and the CFMA allows limitless positions, unlike the regular stock market, so, it’s not a stretch to consider Putin could possibly have had a hand in oil prices soaring to $145 in 2008, which triggered the Sub-prime default crisis. It was noticeable enough that the Pentagon investigated oil manipulation as a potential act of financial terrorism, potentially by Al Qaeda, but the CFTC wasn’t allowed to disclose who owned oil then.

If someone knew how fragile, insanely bloated credit was back then, and had the resources to manipulate oil futures, they’d also know to take massive shorts on Sub-prime derivatives, which are also covered by CFMA secrecy.

Effectively collapsing the western banking system and getting insanely rich doing it, it almost worked.

This might explain a lot of the baffling things Putin does, crazy like a fox, but without question, he does not care about the welfare of his people, beyond staying in power.

So, you might be smart being short, but I can’t think the NSA, FinCEN and CIA isn’t aware of what I’m saying, assuming I’m right and not nuts, and if they are, then so is the treasury and the Fed.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to MPO45

In a word, power.

An over simplification of course. But power does corrupt.

And once an individual or group has a taste of that power, they don’t want to give it up. And they will use whatever means to keep that power.

And it doesn’t matter if you are talking about religion, politics, mafia, your local pta….

Look at the autocrats in the countries you mentioned. Its all about power.

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

Autocrats are mentally ill, and it makes them unpredictable.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

Thank goodness we live in a country that put a political system in place that tries to prevent autocrats and dictators from taking over.

Of course, there are elements hard at work who are trying to subvert our democracy. These range from outside influences to those inside.

Once someone gets a taste of power, they are willing to do almost anything to get it back. Even starting an armed insurrection and plotting against your own VP and trying to rig the next election.

I accept that is just the way it is. It doesn’t make it right. But it is reality. God help us.

In the meantime, I will continue to focus on getting wealthy enough to move to wherever I want to, and live a comfortable life.

RonJ

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

The coup was against Trump.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to RonJ

Wow! There sure are a lot of Russian trolls on this site. You make it 4 by my count.

Time to get out of Russia before its too late comrade. Best of luck getting out.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

I don’t think Ron’s Russian, it’s the guys going on about “Nazi’s in Ukraine”, or ranting about the “West” who are.

Ron’s a legit MAGA guy, which humorously might be a view formed via Russian influencers, but he himself isn’t.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Okay. Russian or MAGA. It’s all about spreading misinformation in order to divide Americans.

Come to think of it, MAGA is probably worse. Spreading rot from within to divide your own country.

Again. I can’t change what they do. I have to focus on my own needs.

But when they are trying to directly convince me that their lies are the truth, I sometimes call them on it.

vanderlyn

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

100% correct. human nature has not changed one bit since ancient egypt or rome or china……power is more intoxicating than money, though they go hand in hand.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to vanderlyn

Agree. I hope that if i ever get enough money, I will be satisfied with that and not feel the need to also acquire power.

I look at Elon Musk lately and I think the money, celebrity, and power are making him go crazy. But once you are addicted to the high, its hard to go back to normal.

Next thing, he will want to run for President.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

With EV demand exploding and competitors ramping up as TSLA loses market share, Elon’s a freaking moron to invest in a failing Twitter at a time when Social Media is fading overall.

He should be using that money to build plants, R&D on new batteries, but ..Twitter?

Sunriver

3 years ago

Mish, just stick with your years of slow growth(often negative growth) prediction, and the GDP model will be spot on. This quarters model is suspect.

Over the next decade, the unraveling of central banks policies will become clear.

Casual_Observer2020

3 years ago

As long as the war between the west and Russia keeps going, inflation will rage. This is what Putin wants. The west needs a different strategy to distract Russia from Ukraine.

FromBrussels2

3 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

…..Your suggestion being ??

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

A giant potato! No Russian can resist potato!

Casual_Observer2020

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

No good options here between China and Russia expanding their borders. One option might be to start deporting Russian and Chinese citizens living in the US. Another is to close the Russian embassy and deport the last remaining diplomats. Lavrov probably doesn’t want to go back. I’m still surprised the US has waited so long to freeze and seize Putin’s assets in the west.

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Racist suggestions

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

I agree on Putin’s “strategy” which is similar to what he tried on oil in 2020, but news from Ukraine today is encouraging,

Intelligence sources have been saying Putin was getting low on missiles over his military wasting them on random civilian targets and, coincidentally, today Putin’s announces he’s going to lay off the missiles for now.

Kherson is being evacuated of Russian civilians.

FromBrussels2

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

There is absolutely NOTHING encouraging about Ukraine today , unless you think a loss( =killed) of 100K soldiers , the US supported Nazi scumbags included , is peanuts … Intelligence sources know fckn sh$t, Russia has been preparing for this ‘event’ since the CIA coup in 2014, Ukraine is going to be completely annihilated unless it is willing to negotiate with or without the consent of its far away criminal master safely enjoying and relishing the financial benefits of the ongoing situation… Kherson is being evacuated to prevent the Nazis from terrorising and murdering Russian citizens again when the final SHTF….Russia low on missiles ? You ain t seen nothing yet ! The US didn t mind killing a milllion innocents in Iraq because there was no cultural unity , Russia and Ukraine, if it wasn t for a corrupt tird (with u) named Zelensky, are family, apart from the Nazi scumbags of course ….But what would a unworldly yank like you (or is it canadian) know about culture ….Naught !

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

Yes, you Russians are killin’ it!

You probably don’t know these things, but Russian media is state owned and censored –

Zelensky is 100% Jewish on both maternal/paternal sides & has relatives that died in the holocaust, he’s no Nazi.

Ukrainians are reporting bewildering questions from Russian troops asking them “Where are the Nazi’s?”. – There are no “Nazi’s” in Ukraine, at least not organized or state sanctioned.

Ukraine has pinpointed and killed 44 Russian generals thanks to NATO satellite technology, that’s unheard of, and it’s incredible that Russia didn’t know to conceal them from view, NATO just assumed your military was as good as Putin claimed.

Ukraine has lost 9,000 troops – dead, Russia as many as 80,000, with 50K+ confirmed dead, this is why you’re being conscripted, your army’s running low …now hurry, Putin needs you!

As for conscriptions, Kazakhstan alone has taken in 200,000 Russian men seeking to avoid conscription, Georgia has lines of traffic that at one point was 50 hours waiting to get out of Russia, Finland has threatened to close it’s border to stop the Russian refugee’s, it can’t handle that many.

Shoot more missiles into Ukraine, there’s still a few schools, apartment buildings and hospitals left….and, make sure you head straight to your conscription designation, Putin needs you!

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Russia will win and the nazis are desperate… time to move on in the west and get back to business

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

Zelensky is jewish on both sides of his family, he’s no Nazi.

Russian troop deaths 50,000+ – Ukrainian 9,000 – This is the reason Putin has activated conscriptions.

Ukraine has also pinpointed and killed 44 Russian generals thanks to NATO satellite technology, that’s unheard of, and it’s incredible that Russia didn’t know to conceal them from view.

200,000 Russians have escaped into Kazakhstan, Georgia has a 50 hr wait in congested traffic, Finland is considering closing it’s border from the overflow.

But, sure, you guys are killin’ it!

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Being Jewish doesn’t make you ‘not a nazi’ thats called racism. Believing someone is or isnt something based on race or religion (prejudice etc) etc

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Raymond_Flagstaff

I literally laughed out loud, THAT was funny.

“Being Jewish doesn’t make you ‘not a nazi’ thats called racism. Believing someone is or isnt something based on race or religion (prejudice etc) etc”

Being Jewish doesn’t mean you’re not antisemitic, got it.

Being black doesn’t mean you’re not a white supremacist.

Dave Chappelle did a skit about being a blind black man as leader of the KKK, but you just outdid that one.

You probably don’t know Dave, he’s an American comedian, funny as hell, but you just matched him, thank you.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

“There is absolutely NOTHING encouraging about Ukraine today”

I forgot how well your troops have done in Kharkiv

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

Such bluster from comrade that is avoiding conscription in fancy Belgian toilet room while his country lose territory !

JRM

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

How many times has West INTEL agencies claimed Russia was running out of missiles???

And within weeks Russia fires record of missiles in Ukraine every time!!!

It is funny how the West is spinning the civilian withdraw from Kherson as in immenent capture of Kherson, which it is not the case it is not a “MILITAYRY” withdraw.. Russia has flooded in more troops into Kherson..Russia is getting its civilians out of the way!!!

Ignore the fact that Ukraine has fired thousands of missiles into the city of kherson, at the same time the West is condemning Russia for doing the exact same thing..Reminder Kherson city was captured without a fight, so any damage done to the city points to one side, Ukraine military..

Even Zelensky admitted live on BBC broadcast that Ukraine was suffering recent military setbacks in Ukraine..The video was from his live broadcast in front of a EU group, two mornings ago!!!

Yet US MSM media has not shown that video, cause it contradicts the WEST narrative!!!!

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to JRM

“How many times has West INTEL agencies claimed Russia was running out of missiles???”

Don’t actually care, at a rate of 7 missiles per kill this week, all civilians, Putin better have vast stock piles.

At this stage, Ukraine isn’t going to stop, regardless of what Putin is willing to concede, I think Ukraine now has Crimea in it’s sights, your army has proven pathetic, as has your ability to use tactical weaponry by hitting churches, schools and hospitals.

If Putin uses any nukes, then it’s no longer just Ukraine shooting at you.

Not even China is behind Putin now, their interests are economic, and we’re their biggest trade partner.

Good luck, have a nice weekend.

Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

“Don’t actually care, at a rate of 7 missiles per kill this week, all civilians, Putin better have vast stock piles.”

Another interpretation is Russia is not targeting civilians. How many rockets were fired and how many hit the target? What was the strategic value of the targets?

Any victory hinges on some/all of the following factors:

a) superior ‘troops’ in abundance

b) superior arms in abundance

c) superior strategy and tactics

d) the will to win (whatever the cost)

BTW, the US had a, b, and c in Vietnam. Not D.

Russia and Ukraine (with EU support at current levels) will end up how?

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Ukraine has all 4.

The fact that they were able to pinpoint & eliminate 44 Russian generals and take less the 20% the troop casualties Russia did speaks volumes.

Putin did target utilities this week, yes, but the overall effect is minimal beyond angering civilians.

I don’t want war, but even more so, I don’t want despots manipulating control of global resources and my government, both affect us.

Putin preys on fear and the more he gets the more he’ll take, he completely miscalculated Ukraine, boasting he’d be done in as little as 3 days, based on his own internal miscalculations of Russia’s military capabilities.

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Dont worry he does lol. Man u boomers with your russia hatred gets tiring

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Raymond_Flagstaff

Not a boomer

BernankeAirdrop

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

No one sane in the West is going to die in a Nuclear armageddon for Ukraine. Maybe the Neocon death cult would like to kill everyone but the West escalating against a nuclear power has consequences. There’s zero possibility for Russia to ‘lose’ here, they will simply send Kiev into the upper atmosphere.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to BernankeAirdrop

“No one sane in the West is going to die in a Nuclear armageddon for Ukraine.”

No one would for Georgia, Crimea, and if not Ukraine, then maybe Poland? ..Germany? …Finland? …U.K.? …The U.S. itself?

North Korea, China and Pakistan are watching, this was Putin’s gambit.

What then? – We fold to any despot when they say “Nukes!”?

We have no choice.

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to JRM

If they launched those missiles at military targets, the effect would be minimal. Their choice of infrastructure and apartment buildings as targets shows they only have enough missiles to conduct long range terrorism on civilians. Cowards.

BernankeAirdrop

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

Well, it seems they are trying to fight an actual war rather than simply bring the Ukrainian government to the negotiating table that the US doesn’t let them sit at. Now, Ukraine will go without power and probably rail lines.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to BernankeAirdrop

Criminal breaks into your home, but is willing to negotiate for a partial return of your property while he’s still there, you negotiate?

This is Ukraine’s stance.

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

8 months of running out… u people believe any old propaganda they try huh?

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Raymond_Flagstaff

“8 months of running out… u people believe any old propaganda they try huh?”

My reference to missile kill ratio was this week’s barrage, several hundred missiles for less than 30 dead, all civilians.

This tells us Putin’s satellite tech is dated, they cannot see mobile military presence, the only targets they can hit are established ones like utilities. Intel also tells us their missile stock is near gone.

I suspect Putin’s goal for conquest of Ukraine is only secondary to another, to play the predictable market reaction, it can be incredibly lucrative to have the power to position ahead of price changes.

Jmurr

3 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Or maybe we should mind our own business. It’s what the founders would have done. To think that American tax dollars are being used to support Nazi brigades in Ukraine. Patton must be rolling in his grave.

PapaDave

3 years ago

Reply to Jmurr

Oh great. Another Russian troll like prumbly. Sorry comrade. I ain’t buying what you two are selling. Time for you to escape from Russia before Putin closes the borders.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

For some reason, I’m unable to reply to them, weird

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Jmurr

“support Nazi brigades in Ukraine”

You’re not American

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

Point being Americans must support nazis? Lol ok chief

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Raymond_Flagstaff

“Point being Americans must support nazis?”

Zelensky’s 100% Jewish, lost families members in the Holocaust.

Ukraine civilians are baffled when Russian troops arrive asking for Nazi’s, there are none, your media is state controlled, that’s what they’re telling you.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to Raymond_Flagstaff

Point being, Americans know they’re not Nazi’s, this is being pawned off only in Russia.

vanderlyn

3 years ago

Reply to Jmurr

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War

Salmo Trutta

3 years ago

The FED has
made the worst policy error since it began in 1913. Powell is the worst chairman in history. Powell sought to cover up his gargantuan
mistake by reinventing the money stock figures.

R-gDp is determined by a 10mo fixed rate-of-change in short-term money flows. The roc has reversed since the 1st half of the year. Because Powell destroyed deposit classifications, I now have to use a disclaimer.

Thetenyear

3 years ago

Maybe Joe knows what he is talking about after all.

I was concerned when Joe Biden made it sound like nuclear armageddon was more likely than recession. This latest estimate puts those fears to rest.

I agree that GDPNOW is way high, if only because estimates are on the high side 80% of the time.

MPO45

3 years ago

Halloween is on Monday Oct. 31. The internet whispers there is going to be a big trick or treat this Halloween.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Anecdotal observation, a friend owns a residential service business, 4 years ago they were amazed that sales had breached $50 mil for the year.

This year they’re swamped, and they have a pipeline backlog of $50 mil prepaid & retained to start.

Almost all of these were financed at lower rates.

From their microverse, work is all set for a year or so, depending on labor availability, but late next year it gets dicey.

I thought this was interesting, where GDPnow seems to correlate.

FromBrussels2

3 years ago

Reply to MarkraD

so you DO have friends ?! Amazing that is

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

Your comrades die at the front, while you make toilet emails for americanskis to laugh at! You no deserve potato!

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

U are the most boring boomer on this blog

BernankeAirdrop

3 years ago

Reply to Raymond_Flagstaff

Zardoz is literally either a brainwashed boomer stuck in 1976 or a legitimate Shareblue shill. MP045 and PapaDave are the same.

MarkraD

3 years ago

Reply to BernankeAirdrop

You forgot me, and most actual Americans.

Tony Bennett

3 years ago

Don’t know about the recent surge, but an OK Q3 not surprising. Mortgage rates dipped a bit July into August and stock market roared most of July / August boosting confidence.

Karlmarx

3 years ago

I guess we are exporting a lot more stuff to Ukraine than anyone knows about. If GDP increases because of that its pretty much broken windows growth

FromBrussels2

3 years ago

Reply to Karlmarx

….government /CBs printed $$ sent to Ukraine are being paid back to US corporations…. and the Capitol Corrupt Bunch cashes in on the dividends….ain t life fckn great in the fckn US of A ?! The American Dream is still alive n kickn….for some anyway…

Captain Ahab

3 years ago

Reply to FromBrussels2

This is what happens with a corrupt, demented liar as president.

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

But enough about your soon to be indicted mancrush…

Raymond_Flagstaff

3 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

Is it a stupid comment? Yea, check who wrote it… yup resident dummy tardoz

Zardoz

3 years ago

Reply to Karlmarx

It’s for vermin control. Best to take care of it before it spreads.

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.

Don’t Miss a Post. Subscribe now.

GDPNow Forecast Unfazed by Weak Retail Sales and Strong Inflation

Share this:

Recommended Articles

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk