I am hearing mostly rah-rahs for Harris. And the instant polls show Harris was perceived as the winner. But did she pick up votes? For how long?
The Debate She Wanted
Nate Silver thinks Kamala Harris Got the Debate She Wanted.
- There is a strong consensus that Harris won the night. Polymarket predicts there’s a 97 percent chance that Harris is judged the winner of debate in snap polls, and also has the overall race drawing to 50/50 after having shown a Trump lead at the start of the night. Bitcoin prices are down, which also implies a loss for Trump. Even the Fox News panel that I caught at the tail end of the evening seemed to concede that it was a win for Harris.
- Harris is a good tactician, and I imagine her campaign couldn’t have been more pleased with Trump repeatedly taking the bait literally every time that she offered it.
- Trump didn’t seem to know to do with the long 2-minute blocks and microphones muted. He’d have coherent and occasionally even fairly effective sections for 30 seconds at a time, but then he’d veer off into another direction. You’ll probably see some process stories complaining that Trump wasn’t well prepared for the evening.
- And Trump also was very much in “campaign rally” mode, speaking in terminology that was more coded toward the GOP base and name-dropping people like Sean Hannity and Laura Ingram.
- Lots of GOP complaining on Twitter about the biased moderation, which whether you agree or not, is almost always a bearish indicator.
- But to be fair, the set of questions was pretty friendly to Harris. Nothing about Biden’s fitness for office, for instance, even though his catastrophic failure in the first debate is the reason she rather than Biden was standing on stage tonight. And ABC News also doing basically real-time fact checking played well for Harris. Maybe some of the constant Democratic ref-working of the mainstream media played dividends.
- Trump was more effective on the economy than on other topics, sticking to simpler rhetoric that an economist might not approve of (e.g. on tariffs) but which will probably play reasonably well with the median undecided voter. I thought the first 10 minutes or so, focused on the economy, were actually pretty good for Trump — but there may be a fatigue issue, as there was with Biden. We didn’t see much “A-game” after that.
- Sustained debate early in the evening on abortion very bullish for Harris, both in terms of the substance and the subject matter — it’s probably Democrats’ best single topic. In particular, Trump couldn’t really land the point about the Supreme Court throwing it to the states as being a good thing. What happens in the first 15-30 minutes almost always matters disproportionately relative to the rest of the evening.
- Style-wise, Harris seemed quite canned at times, like in invoking Camp David.
There are seven more points which to be fair to Silver, I will leave to subscribers.
I missed the first three minutes and caught the rest.
What Caught My Attention
First, my perception is Harris looked like she had a phony smile most of the evening. Nate Silver called it “canned” but that is based on answers not expression. Canned is a good description from either perspective.
Trump has clearly been worse, much worse. In fact, I wonder if Trump has ever been better.
It’s not that Trump debated Biden well, it’s that Biden gave the worst debate performance in history.
Trump did wander off track, but less than I expected. But being better is not the same as winning.
Betting Odds Suggest Harris Won
If Trump was better than excepted, then so was Harris. Polymarket went from 53-47 Trump to 49-49.
If you think Trump won, you are probably showing more than a bit of bias. But even Silver admits “But to be fair, the set of questions was pretty friendly to Harris.”
Regardless, Trump should have been better prepared for the questions. Can anyone say any question was out of the blue unexpected?
Harris was prepared for the questions. Trump wasn’t. Harris practiced for the debates, Trump didn’t.
But Who Really Won?
I am having issues embedding Tweets so that is very preliminary. Here is a link.
https://x.com/MishGEA/status/1833706921771294984
I basically thought I don’t know. The Polymarket betting odds suggest Harris won.
If a week from now the polls look like they did yesterday, my answer is noboday.
But we do have moving odds for other reasons.
Giving a slight edge to Harris, for now, seems reasonable, based on betting odds. It’s tough to defend a strong belief that Trump won. But ask me in 10 days.
I suspect Harris did not move the needle three percentage points. Even if so, three points (net swing of 6) is not a disaster.
Trump needed to avoid a disaster, and he did. Does that constitute a win?
Economy Favors Trump
The economy favors Trump. I am sticking with that call until proven wrong.
September 9: Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession
September 10: NFIB “Mood on Main Street Darkens” Small Business Optimism Dips
September 10: The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?
One candidate screamed about an urban legend of dogs and cats being eaten, the other was serious and had actual things to say. How anyone can support Trump here is just boggling.
KamalaToe did Excellent due to her preparation/acting lessons. Just MUTE the audio, and WATCH her facial expressions when it was DJT’s turn to speak. She exercised reactions like: Disbelief, Mistrust, Disgust, etc.
Morons eat up the facade she pulled-off.
What fascinates me, is that embedded within the US Constitution was inherent insight–some might say brilliance–enabling states to be part of a whole, while retaining fundamental differences. The proviso being when those differences are not excluded/provided for by the Constitution and Amendments.
I bring this up because the Democrat version of ‘democracy’ essentially excludes any and all ‘differences’ it does not agree with. To be clear: the Democrat party has become the antithesis of democracy, as RFK pointed out.
Abortion, for example, is NOT a right, but the result of a set of values held by a group of people. Underlying those values are convenience, morality, ethics, and eugenics. Another issue, again not a right, is changing the gender of minority-age children. If blue states want to switch girls and boys at whim–feel free.
The bottom line, enabling states to individually determine what is right/wrong for them actually generates a more stable whole. Harris doesn’t care, so long as it gets her votes.
Long term, the national prognosis is not good. The not-debate was a crock!
What a bunch of hokum! Full control of your own body IS an inalienable right, not something that can be parceled out by states to citizens under the states control.
It’s time to reengineer the USA such that every citizen in every state has the same rights.
In that case, the Democrats should bring a bill to the House/Senate, and see what happens. That’s the hokum. They won’t! I think you know why, too. However, individual states, can and will do what they need to in order to meet the needs in each state.
And you saying it is an ‘inalienable right’ doesn’t give the unborn child the same right.
Which goes back to my point of enabling differences among people, not one mold fits all. .
It’s not an unborn child. It’s a fetus.
If you’re looking to protect born children, go adopt some Palestinian kids. Lots w/o parents there!
I had a somewhat similar thought. Trump could have reminded Harris that EU countries have on average a 12-14 week abortion ban (with exceptions) then asked “Ms. Harris do you intend to introduce a bill that is in alignment with other modern EU countries? Or do you stand in support of the 36-week limit that your VP choice has implemented in Minnesota?”
That is a great question!
What is the difference between 6, 12, 13, 14, 18 or other week numbers so long as a fetus, which isn’t a viable human being, can’t live on its own at the time of abortion?
As to 36 week number, here is the detail:
https://www.kare11.com/article/news/verify/verify-minnesota-abortion/89-c96d3f83-794b-4de8-bbb9-009df172ebb1
Which brings us back to the basic question as to whether the person carrying the fetus has the right to make ALL decisions regarding it or does someone else?
Yes! Principle is to REDUCE central power, by pushing down and outward to states and the people, DILUTES power. This helps to regulate tyrannical tendicies of power-hungry bastards.
The Immigration and Haitians thing went viral on the Internet. The media was calling it fake but the comments and the citizens in Springfield were calling it a real problem. Most residents are saying the number of Haitians is closer to 30 or 40 thousand. This has driven rents through the roof. Trump may actually get votes from his clumsy performance.
A Debate Recap With Song, Dance and Joseph Gordon-Levitt
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/opinion/trump-harris-debate-joseph-gordon-levitt.html
Harris owned that debate without a doubt! If you think otherwise you are “sunsetting”, low IQ or delusional. She was surprisingly well spoken and clever with many of her answers and expressions. She didn’t really deliver much substance, but it wasn’t required. All she had to do was just hang out, let the moderators pitch a softball and let Don once again show us what a dumbs*&t he is. He did that in spades. I’m embarrassed for the Republican party. DT should have easily secured a second term. So, now R’s double down on this guy?
Good grief! The Dems and their “victimhood/Climate Agenda/3rd Trimester choice” mantra are coming after you (us) to “redistribute” wealth…realized or not and terminate more babies in the womb.
DT’s only path forward is to STFU (which he can’t) and hint at RFK for Attorney General.
Ha ha. Was watching Gutfield on FOX tonight. They are figuratively pulling their hair out trying to minimize Harris debate win and Swift’s endorsement of Harris with huge doses of snark and shrugs that this or that doesn’t really matter, that the debate was rigged, that the moderators fact checked Trump too much (perhaps because he ranted more things that required fact checking?), etc. It was sad…
This is supposed to be humorous show. In this session they brought on whiny Tulsi Gabbard as one of their seated guests but like the others, she was far more strident than humorous.
The FORCE is with Harris. Will she be able to wield it and end Trump worship by the Republican party? Let’s hope so!
I don’t know the answer. With respect to this debate, I do wish we could have “subbed in” a Condoleezza Rice for DT! I’m pretty sure “the force” would have taken a uturn! We’ve been without intelligent, well-spoken statesmen for so very long.
I don’t know the answer. With respect to this debate, I do wish we could have “subbed in” a Condoleezza Rice for DT! I’m pretty sure “the force” would have taken a uturn! We’ve been without intelligent, well-spoken statesmen for so very long.
tailwinds are easily taken for granted or are often mistaken for one’s own abilities. headwinds are always recognizable as headwinds. comrad harris was far more prepared, and trump was his own worst enemy, but if you cant admit the bias of the moderators, then you are mistaking a tailwind for something else.
I disagree. There a amateur videos on YouTube that have received 700,000 views in one day that discuss the Haitian problem in Springfield. Placing 10s of thousands of migrants there has caused a serious problem in that town. People everywhere are concerned about the numbers they are seeing.
Tens of thousands of migrants/illegals in ANY town is a problem, whether they eat the dogs and cats or not.
It was not a debate. It was just a joint appearance. And the “results” of the “debate” don’t matter anyway. It will all come down to a few hundred thousand voters in 5 or 6 swing states. Just like it has been in the last 2 elections.
Uh huh. And the Trump/Biden debate didn’t matter either, even though the repercussions from that debate forced Biden to bow out of the race?
Debates matter and this one helped Harris tremendously as did Taylor Swift’s beautifully timed endorsement of Harris.
Biden has been demented for quite a while. It just became impossible for the DONORcrat Party to deny it after that point, and so the stage was set for the palace coup.
We will see how much the so-called debate mattered, in about 2 weeks. I am guessing it won’t be much and it would still come down to a few hundred thousand voters in 5 or 6 swing states.
Quick take:
They both played to their base. Harris: Abortion, abortion, abortion. Trump: Illegals, Illegals, Illegals.
Harris was very practiced and prepared. Her competition in this regard was Biden, but she did quite well on a reasonable scale, hitting almost all the usual anti-Trump marks. (She forgot to allude to Trump / drinking bleach, but I’d give it at least 50% odds her team explicitly muffled that silliness.)
In both cases, “their base” was sexually selected. Harris wanted her base to feel safe and secure from even the most unlikely events in life. Trump wanted his base to know the USA will go Venezuela if his opponents are behind the steering wheel.
Trump missed an opportunity. He treated Harris like Biden. Called her “weak”. But Harris’s base, who can identify with her, don’t need nor want to be reminded of their weakness. Instead, Trump should have defended Harris! How? Not by saying she lies, but rather that she has been lied to. Fooled. Duped. Acknowledge her victim hood and then protect her from those evil-doers.
Old guy angry and yelling vs. Ugly women squinting and lying. I don’t want either one.
Mish is right to say that we won’t know for 7-10 days. I think Trump missed some easy verbal attack opportunities, but if all anyone remembers is illegals eating dogs and cats, that could eventually work in his favor – especially when satirical takes like this make the rounds: https://babylonbee.com/news/media-assures-americans-that-migrants-havent-killed-any-cats-just-women-and-children
Well as long as they aren’t eating humans, I’m OK.
That’s next. Remember that the main Haitian gang leader is nicknamed “Barbecue”. Diversity is our strength.
Yes, except there is not one shred of credible evidence to the claim that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio.
Nobody knows…but that was some outstanding analysis from Mr. Shedlock. I have not seen anyone take it apart and provide an objective and “in context” analysis to anywhere near this extent. This takes a good deal more into account than others seem capable of. I am impressed.
No one talks about illegal aliens eating people’s pets in a presidential debate unless he is mentally damaged. “Trump’s family has experienced mental health challenges, including Fred Trump Sr.’s dementia and William’s intellectual and developmental disabilities. Donald Trump’s own mental health has been subject to public scrutiny, with many professionals diagnosing him with various personality disorders.”
BTW “Political consultant points out ‘Nate Silver is paid by Peter Thiel’ after 538 projects Trump victory”
One last thing the Republican conservative party will only survive if Trump loses. Trump’s minions are not conservative they are authoritarian.
I am considering placing an order for these bumper stickers to sell:
———————————————————————————–
WORRIED ABOUT YOUR CAT BEING EATEN BY ‘ILLEGALS’?
***VOTE TRUMP!***
———————————————————————————–
That’s been debunked: https://babylonbee.com/news/media-assures-americans-that-migrants-havent-killed-any-cats-just-women-and-children
If you’re a Democrat that might not be a wise subject to discuss.
Just bringing it up helps Trump. I’ve never seen so many amateur videos go viral about people from Springfield explaining what is happening to them. The media is calling it false because of the cat thing but something serious has happened to the people in that town. This may backfire on Harris. One video from a mechanic that was in his 60s calmly explaining the situation had over 700,000 views in 24 hours. That’s very rare.
This was pre-debate. I bet her fundraising will increase vis-a-vis Trump post-debate.
My verdict:
The debate will fail to actually motivate anybody to vote.
The level of political discourse and the quality of the people involved are harbingers of America’s future: Toddler brawling.
By any objective measure, Harris won the debate. Even some of the Fox talking heads had to admit it was not Trump’s night. The panel members on MSNBC were absolutely giddy, where previously they were in shock after the first debate .
It is a legitimate discussion point whether this moved the needle in the polls (and therefore the election), but you don’t need 10 days to figure out if she won. I suspect that we will see a 1 to 2 point move towards Harris over the next two weeks, but otherwise the numbers are pretty well baked in. After Biden’s disastrous debate, many die-hard Democrats still said they would vote for potted plant over Trump, and it’s pretty clear that many Trump supporters are equally firm in their support. However, it’s the low information, still undecided voters Harris was trying to reach, and she probably did win a few of them over.
I’ve been watching FOX last few months because of their positive coverage for Israel.
Watching the last few weeks, I am seeing a lot of angst by FOX hosts and guests at how Trump is floundering and Harris is surging. The network is becoming strident as Trump’s futures decline.
you spend your free time watching a news channel you don’t like? do you have any friends?
“Who Won the Debate?”
The Uniparty.
Idiots United.
The same gaggle of the stupid, the clueless and the useless who “win” all debates in fully financialized dystopias with zero redeeming qualities whatsoever.
What a surprise,eh?
Once Trump grabs onto a losing position he won’t let go.
I couldn’t believe he’s still supporting Russia. After all the terror attacks, all the schools & hospitals bombed, he’s still Putin’s guy.
lol. A CNN viewer. Lemme guess – Russia has been shooting 7X the number of artillery shells but losing more men than the Ukraine.
That is too 2016 to be effective. You need to update.
He’s going to bring Khrushchev to Disneyworld, too.
‘You can’t not know history,’ but you may be the exception.
Russia hatred is a ‘thing’ for the military-industrial state. We have missed several opportunities to end the Cold War, the best one ever with Cigar Clinton. A good statesman could bring Putin into NATO and the EU, and change the trajectory of Europe. An idiot will cause WW3.
Although it matters who wins the Presidency, neither of them will solve the spending problem and the debt problem. Neither candidate will balance the budget. Is America on an upward trajectory or a downward trajectory? It really seems like we’re an empire in decline. Meanwhile I’ve noticed China makes everything now.
China is struggling in many ways. It is a descending economy, not an ascending one. Try to pay attention!
Some of this is true, perhaps all. GIven that China led the way out of 2007-9, what happens in the next recession?
I didn’t watch it – I already know who im voting for. From the after action comments and clips it seems like a wash. Unless there’s some really standout performance these things are more like a rorschach test where the viewers bias comes into play. Trump has obviously aged so he’s not going to be as zippy as 2016. Harris just continues to exude a raw and visceral air of insincerity – even for a politician – that I personally find repulsive.
But 67 million other folks did. You’re all wrong honks Corvinus!
Didn’t watch the so-called debate. Have seen a couple of stories that the so-called moderators were fronting for Harris. More election corruption.
Trump didn’t know where to begin:
US Presidential Debates start with both candidates shaking hands.
Trump couldn’t make it to center stage; Kamala had to march into his territory.
Trump didn’t know when to quit:
He still claims everyone wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade…
that babies are killed after birth…
that Countries of Origin pay tariffs instead of consumers…
revived the Big Lie by retracting his 2020 lost by a whisker admission…
and then popped into the Spin Room to promote…
himself.
And par for the course:
the Trump Campaign Team declared debate victory…
before the debate was even over.
Who pays a tax or tariff depends on the elasticity of demand. This is Econ 101.
Tax incidence depends on the relative elasticity of demand and supply. If supply is more elastic than demand, it’s the buyer who pays the tax or tariff. 200 years of empirical research have shown that in international trade it’s almost always demand that pays the tariff (there are second round effects through the exchange rate but those only make things worse for the country imposing the tariff). That the Wharton School accepted an ignoramus like Trump as student is a mystery.
Economic theory also gives strong economic justification for slavery too. Economics is not physics. It is just sociology that lacks common sense and morality.
Tax incidence has nothing to do with values. Slavery is an institution and whether you want to justify it or not depends on your values (and not elasticities of demand and supply).
Slave ownership was also taxed.
What is it when you work five days and the state takes two days under threat of jail?
Only three days of ‘free-market’ wage slavery, dumb-ass.
I did not bother watching the debate. I have a life.
But I find it interesting that the market is dropping through the flo0or today. Im still not sure who won the debate but clearly the economy lost…..
The markets have up’s and down’s.
The biggest laugh for me came when Kamala touted the endorsement of none other than Dick Cheney – the likely architect of the Iraq-Afghanistan fiasco. You couldn’t say two headed uni-party more directly than that.
Trump missed the opportunity to say that his proudest moment was being not endorsed by Dick Cheney – and that anyone voting for the same person as Dick Cheney ought to have their head examined.
Depends. Cheney is a true Republican conservative. To turn against the Republican candidate and to the Democratic candidate says something that will be heeded by folks who agree with him.
“True republican conservative” = neocon warmongering piece of shit – a’la McCain. Trump’s voters are so done with that – and there may be some independents and even Dems who don’t want the U.S. to continue instigating wars and trying to run the world. We will see. Harris voters are voting for more war.
Years ago went to a Caribbean nation for winter vacation. Made comment to a Local about how beautiful everything was.
His response: Ya can’t eat Sunshine Mon
Unless you have roots in the ground and are a plant.
Sorry I don’t talk to plants expecting an answer. From your posts you appear to do just that.
Trump again proved that the only thing he is really good at is making Americans hate each other. And, as a presidential candidate, he is now the old guy with mental health issues. No wonder that the betting markets and his stock price turned against him after the debate.
Rorschach response – you already hate Trump so anything negative about him is multiplief in your mind. Both parties thrive on pitting half the country against the other why single out Trump?
I don’t hate Trump. I pity him. He obviously has mental health issues.
‘I don’t hate Trump. I pity him. ‘
You’ll forgive me if I don’t believe that.
Even Harris seemed to pity him at the debate.
I think Harris won, but she definitely has a pompous, self righteous manner about her.
Trump won; he shorted DJT yesterday afternoon before the debate and made a bundle (DJT gapping lower and down currently 15+%). He’s brilliant. What a smooth move.
Not sure those MAGA dupes holding the stock are too happy this morning.
Harris did much better than expected. She was well rehearsed. It’s almost like she knew what the questions were going to be and was prepared. No surprise there. Donna Brazil said she passed the questions for the debate to the Hillary campaign back in 2016. Also the thing about the Haitians eating dogs seemed a setup. Was it a fake story planted for Trump to bite on. I saw it on Zerohedge just recently. How could the moderator claim so definitively that its false when it was a fairly obscure and recent story. And then the way Harris teed off on it. To me this seemed to perfect. Given what is a stake for the deep state of disgusting, rotten villians, it is well within the possible.
Of course I switched it off when they both started fawning over Israel. Amazing how this small country of psychopaths controls the US. Absolutely disgusting.
The video of the Springfield, Ohio town council meeting regarding the Haitian immigrants seemed pretty convincing to me. Even more convincing was the callousness of the politicians as they ignored the pleas of a citizen.
Set up tour buses for the Springfield, Ohio Haitians for a field trip to Chicago Botanical Gardens in Glencoe.
The ‘fact checking’ consisted of calling the city manager’s office. Many people will go ‘oh see they checked up on it’ and not bother asking whether it is in the city managers interrdt to lie about it. What are the chances it’s a Democrat department? It would be like Trump saying the economy is bad and then they ‘fact check’ by calling the white house – what answer would they get? Ridiculous.
In Chile the haitians ate cats y dogs, it is a fact and widely know here..
Who Won the Debate? Ask Me in a Week to 10 Days
My thoughts exactly
I think your analysis is spot on Mish.
I might add that it came of as a debate of 3 v 1, but otherwise i totally agree with you.
Kamala won the debate bc mama Taylor Swift and her cat endorsed her.
Many working class ppl dont make enough money to vote democrat anymore.
And in 2024 they’re figuring that out.
We missed it on purpose. There is nothing new to learn about these two Nincompoops.
These are the worst two candidates in history, so we will live on with what-the-fuck-ever.
I’ll be fine with Trump as least worst.
The interesting thing about the whole thing is how must of your commenters talked about how they diagnosed Biden’s “dementia” and yet fail to diagnose Trump of the same when it is very clear. So Mish do you actually think Trump has a normal functioning brain?
Who won?
Biden and his handlers. The media and everyone else parses an exchange of quips and sound bites between a candidate that wasn’t chosen by her “democratic” party’s members and a candidate that seems to be his party’s only option despite wearing down physically and mentally.
In the meantime BidenCo continues to run out the clock and the narrative about his fitness has been deemed inconsequential by those entrusted by the electorate to make that determination. \s
WOW this has become a Trumpster site
Every day four years ago this time Mish was trashing Trump under The Street . Com banner.
“I didnt watch it Harris was winy Its a conspiracy ” blah blah blah
Trump looked sounded looked terrible
Harris won. Pretty easily. Trump looked like a doddering old man repeating mostly the same old falsehoods from his rallys, that his base loves, but, most Americans know are bunk.
I know the Democrats are bunk.
“Herstory is bunk”
Said Mustapha Mond
Lol. Harris didn’t utter a single genuine thought of her own throughout the entire debate. I wonder if she even understood some of what they had her parrot. It was as though she was reading from a script the entire time. Her team was obviously given the questions ahead of time. And I agree that the moderators were heavily biased towards Harris. But her performance seemed entirely scripted, everything from what she said, how she posed, her facial expressions seemed unnatural like she was a puppet on strings uttering prerecorded responses.
Of the two candidates Harris won on looking more presidential. DJT flunked that test.
Warren Harding’s 100 year old corpse would look presidential.
Thankfully it’s not a beauty contest.
Soon that fuk from Cali will prove you wrong….you know the guy, Pelosi’s Nephew….
What is a president supposed to look like?? The Dudes on our money?
Unfortunately alot of Americans seem unable to discern blatantly obvious insincerity and unreality. I think there’s a distinct capacity for swallowing BS in the US and treating it as the truth in many cases.
Yes. People voted for Reagan because he was so sincere and for Bush jr for being so authentic, even though both reached record highs on hypocrisy.
Americans lack discrimination, substituting formica for natural … inundated by too much commercial & political propaganda.
People forget that Reagan was an actor. Was he really sincere or merely acting like he was sincere?
Only 2 takeaways for me.
I think Harris did OK. I guess in the grand scheme of things I would say she won… if only because Trump, as usual, has difficulty controlling himself.
While it was closer than what most of the pundits seem to think, I would still find it hard to justify a position that Trump was the winner of the debate. In light of this, seeing the results of Mish’s poll showing Trump as the winner by a significant margin does certainly suggest that there is strong political leaning to one side to most of the readers of this blog. This is fine of course, but one should take this in consideration reading a lot of the comments here.
Kamala came across as an industrial pandering fraud but everyone knew that already. Trump hit the economy and illegal aliens but didn’t put in the work to bury her in dirt on both issues. In 24 hrs nobody will remember this debate.
Other way around. Trump had his head handed to him on a platter. Goes into the spin room to counter his disastrous showing claiming he won the debate.
There is a lot of chatter on X that she is wearing earphone earrings. Nova H1 kickstarter.
Her entire brain is a Nova HI Kickstarter device. She isn’t capable of pulling off organic human features.
The sticky CPI, ex food and energy, is 3.2%. Fed cuts 0.50% ??
Probably not. The numbers were pretty much what was expected.
The inflation trend is still lower. With energy prices down, particularly gasoline and diesel, there’s some further declines built-in.
I am still thinking 0.25.
$SSEC is testing 2020 and 2024 lows. Municipalities sold Land/apt at inflated prices. Down payments were too low to cont. Interest rates were high. If China is bottoming is it good/bad for Canadian oil co.
Most Canadian oil exports go to the US because of the existing pipeline network. It is almost a captive export market, which leads to the US importing Canadian oil at deep discounts. (currently $15-$16 per barrel)
Only a small percentage of Canadian oil goes to China. With the completion of the TMX expansion to Canada’s
west coast, there is a possibility for increased exports to China. Which is good for Canadian oil prices because they can get better prices from China than from the US.
The numbers are small though. But any increase in sales to China at all are positive for Canadian oil.
I agree. 25 BP for now, since the Fed knows they’ve got to keep an eye on the 1980 inflation head fake (down then rebound) next spring.
On a side note that you may not be interested in, my base case is that Harris wins and as soon as it’s officially announced, Iran will do their counter move with Israel. They’re playing the patient, long game.
They know Biden isn’t all there and will use the newly cemented election of the weaker of the two candidates regarding foreign policy to create some level of handover chaos.
If correct, your oil portfolio may well end the year on a really nice bounce.
Also, I gave up an up vote.
Anything is possible. I don’t worry much about the election, but your analysis is interesting. Thanks!
Any cut helps the Harris campaign.
Before I read any of this.
What sticks in my mind are some points.
Abortion: Trump made it clear that this issue tearing the country apart for fifty years is now remanded to the States to resolve individually.
Harris went on and on and can not comprehend that every State does not accept Abortion as she and Liberal America want it treated.
Trump pulled rank during the Debate and took on not only Harris but the two moderators who did their best to support Harris. Demonstrated Media Bias to whole Nation.
Trump pointed out Harris says she wants a negotiated peace in Gaza yet would not meet with Netanyahu when he was here in the States addressing Congress.
Trump countered the convicted felon story by clearly making statement that it is consequence of Lawfare originating in DOJ. Which as the Florida Case got thrown out, appointment and funding of Smith were both Bogus.
Trumps closing was the Action man asking the empty words of Harris why are you not acting now by going to Congress. This is a fair question given how deteriorated the Nation has become.
TDS sufferers will disregard all that was spoken last evening, However if you have a functioning Brain you will ask do you want four years of a rehash of Hopey Changey or do you want Action that actually solves problems? That is the choice.
If you need a House that has been on fire rebuilt, who do you turn to? The storybook writer or the person willing to climb the Ladder.
You are worried about your cats being eaten alive by ‘illegals?’
Vote Trump!
That apparently is happening but stick your head in sand and deny deny deny.
I am however a dog lover and have seen videos of markets in China that sell dogs for meat. People from around this world eat all sorts of things, do you like Bugs for dinner? Vote Harris and the globalists.
Last night was not for people like you. You prefer talk over doing.
American people waste little time on talkers but do expect action from those elected into positions of Power.
Would be a great bumper sticker!
If moderaters correct blatant falsehoods, Trump has a strong g disadvantage. CNN poi ted out 30 lies or more on Trump’s part.
Trump considered offering a MAGA hat to Harris as her present platform is taking much of Trumps speaking points.
Since Harris has been on the left side of Bernie Sanders her whole career presenting herself as middle America now is a Rather huge Lie from the starting gate.
Her choice of Tim Walz as VP confirms she is telling whoppers. She is a Left wing Marxist from San Francisco.
LAWS in the UNITED STATES (you understand the concept of “united”, yes?) should be the same in all 50 states so that all citizens are treated equally in respect to laws!
No they are not that is what makes America hold together on important matters such as National defense, which is a mutual agreement.
Most of America does not live in little cocoons such as San Francisco.
This may come as a revelation but there are still people in this country who view intentional abortion of a Fetus as murder. There are exceptions to save the life of the mother or some other drastic action. Abortion is a major decision. It is bandied about in these times as if it was like taking aspirin for a cold.
That Mother who aborts becomes scarred for Life. Have seen it several times.
Even with Mothers that go to term then give up for adoption they become damaged for Life.
Access to medical care also is a right. “Abortion” is a ‘made-up’ equivalent to “lawfare”. You should learn to respect living, breathing peoples lives instead of practicing authoritarian politics.
Thank you.
“This may come as a revelation but there are still people in this country who view intentional abortion of a Fetus as murder. “
There are people in this country who believe the Earth is flat and the sun revolves around the Earth. You perhaps?
North Dakota judge rules state abortion ban unconstitutional
Sareen Habeshian
12 Sep 2024
Abortion rights and anti-abortion rights activists are protesting in front of the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC on June 24, 2024.
A North Dakota judge struck down the state’s abortion ban — one of the strictest in the U.S. — Thursday, ruling that residents “have a fundamental right to choose abortion” before the fetus is viable.
…
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/12/north-dakota-abortion-ban
dumbest comment ive ever seen here on Mish….ignorance reigns!!
Yesterday Kamala Harris attacked Trump as she attacked Biden in 2019 : when I was 7 year old black girl in a school bus. Bernie almost got a heart attack. The same overkill, same whiny voice and the same tilting head. Elizabeth Warren got her. In the Apprentice Ivanka Trump controlled the mayhem created by bully females.
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I watched the debate and called it a draw. Trump performed as Trump and Harris did ok. To me both seemed to ramble on with their typical politician sound bites.
I was surprised Trump limited his adolescent behavior but I suspect he didn’t want to tick off ALL women voters who will likely decide this election. His usual over the top hyperbole turned me off especially with that dog eating nonsense.
Ultimately politics doesn’t matter, only profits do so I gotta position accordingly.
Trump was way off his game. He took the bait and hooked most of the way through. Very low emotional intelligence.
Trump has no game. he rants and rambles – that’s his game and that’s what I saw. I’ve never seen Kamala on the debate stage so I don’t really know if she was on or off her game. All I heard were pointless soundbites and rambling.
It seemed to me a huge waste of time and energy. Both candidates proved that the winner is fascism and tyranny. The losers are we the people. I am baffled that any of us believe those 2 are the best America has to offer. The rest of the world is in awe of how fast we have gone down the tubes. Sad.
I don’t believe they are our best
My best would have been DeSantis, and my guess is that Shapiro would have been a powerhouse on the Dem side. DeSantis is a fantastic governor, and Shapiro’s upside would be his cultural alignment with Israel,
But, The System doesn’t want an avid Israel supporter in the WH anymore among many other left-wing policies that Harris is willing to support.
I think she will get a dead cat bounce
No she won’t because she ate the cat.
Cats for Harris is like Jews for Hamas.
“A cat in every pot and a car in every garage”. If you can afford a car or a house for that matter. Good luck Kamrads!
Harris gets a Swifty bounce. DJT helped convince Swift he is the wro g leader.
Trump bullet points : WWIII, Israel is gone in two years and the US a marxist state.
Trump is authoritarian and leans fascist.
I never had Trump winning the night, as that was/is not possible with our one sided MSM. At no time in any debates, arguments, or even conversations does Trump stand much if any chance, of positive news as an outcome. That’s a given! I laughed at the BC reference, as a sell signal from any one particular person would/could do that…
Kam was definitely well coached, and Don did swallow the bait a few times. A repeat by Kam is doubtful, but Trump will be much more aware next time.
Trump did seem to have issue with the long 2-minute blocks and microphones muted. That is not His style for debate apparently. Look for the same exact style of debate, if she is to agree to do another.
Lots of complaining by both sides of a debate, are a given.
The set of questions was always known to be pretty friendly to Harris.No Excuses there.
ABC News also doing basically real-time fact checking played well for Harris. Maybe some of the constant Democratic ref-working of the mainstream media played dividends. Exactly!
Trump was to be more effective on the economy, as that IS what will get Him elected imo.
What happens in the first 15-30 minutes almost always matters disproportionately relative to the rest of the evening. Agree!
Style-wise, Harris seemed quite “Coached” (canned) at times, like in invoking Camp David.
I agree there is no immediate winner, but that’s because of the very slanted MSM, and the Narrative and Agendas that they carry. They get Heard First, and The Loudest!!!It always takes a week or two, for the BS to be uncovered, proper coverage to catch up with the Facts Etc…
ABC lol. Media propaganda, deep state, Nixon’s dog. Ancient Greek philosophy grew out of this muck. Let’s find a way to differentiate lies from truth. What could Kamala possibly win, its the circus, you can’t afford the bread. Lipstick on the pig.