Today, Biden dropped out of the race under intense pressure. Yet, it’s still an uphill battle for the Democrats. How does it change the odds? 
Recap of Biden Dropping Out
I discuss Trump-Uncertain Democrat odds below. First let’s go over what we know about Biden Dropping out,
What We Know
- Biden unexpectedly dropped out today with an official letter that did not endorse Kamala Harris.
- In a subsequent Tweet, Biden did endorse Harris.
- The New York Times commented that we do not know who wrote Biden’s letter.
- Democrats are headed for an open convention but Harris is the presumed favorite.
- Biden (or whoever is calling the shots for him) finally realized that Biden staying in the race would be a disaster. Bide was trailing in nearly every major poll.
- Billionaire donors pulled the plug on contributions until Biden stepped out.
I discussed the above six points “what we know” points in detail in my previous post:
Biden Is Dropping Out, Endorses Kamala Harris
Click on above link for expanded details including the official announcement and the Tweet endorsement.
Several people suggest that dropping out and endorsement are two different things. Point taken, but how does it look?
Appearances matter. It appears to be an afterthought.
How Does This Change the Odds?
Actually, no one knows. The reason we do not know is things change when they morph from hypothetical to reality.
Based on polls, Biden was headed for outright disaster in November if he stayed on. Biden finally became convinced of that.
It is likely that Trump is ahead of Harris, but given the open convention, it is not guaranteed that Kamala will be the nominee.
Nate Silver commented in his Silver Forecast “We went ahead and updated the numbers for today and I suppose we’ll continue to do so for another day or two for posterity’s sake if more Biden polling trickles in. But we’ll mostly turn our attention to preparing the model to handle Kamala Harris and/or other prospective Democratic nominees.“
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Does Kamala Harris Improve Democrats’ Odds?
Vox, which normally sounds like a pack of MSNBC cheerleaders has a surprising good take.
There’s the obvious stuff: Harris is younger, can actually string sentences together, and has already been campaigning against Trump this year. These points were once again demonstrated this week — while Biden was forced to recover from Covid at his home in Delaware during the week of the Republican National Convention, Harris was on the trail with North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
What the data says: First, a caveat: comparing polling of reality to a hypothetical match-up is always a bit treacherous. [Cheers to Vox for making this point]
What we can say from head-to-head polling of Harris is that the general trend has gotten a lot better for her. A year ago she was underperforming Biden in head-to-head polling against Trump in a variety of surveys. Closer to the debate and right after, she began to perform about evenly. And more recently, in July, a few polls comparing Biden and Harris against Trump in battleground states and nationally have shown Harris even with Biden or slightly ahead of him.
Harris backers can find an additional data point in their column: 69 percent of respondents think Biden is too old; Harris doesn’t face that concern. And Biden is more unpopular than Harris, something that is consistently true: As of July 18, Biden has a net -17.7 approval rating in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate. Harris’s disapproval is at 11.8. And in RealClearPolitics’ average of favorability ratings, Biden (-16.3) is also more unpopular than Harris (-14.9)
The risks of swapping in Harris
Harris’s favorability numbers are not that different from Biden’s, and could still get worse. In recent polls, she performs worse than Biden in battleground states like Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada — losing those states would likely doom a Democratic candidate.
And she doesn’t necessarily do significantly better than Biden when looking at how subgroups of voters feel: She wins the same share of Black voters as Biden in head-to-head matchups with Trump in battleground states, per Split-Ticket.org’s polling, and does slightly worse than Biden among white voters, who still make up the majority of voters in swing states and nationally.
Taking the Kamala-critical position on the data as is — that there’s essentially no difference according to polls in how Harris performs against Trump than Biden — you are justified in being worried about what the campaign trail might look like.
And then come the memes. While the genre of Kamala Harris memes has been exploding in popularity recently because of the chaos over Biden’s own candidacy, those jokes start from a kernel of truth: Harris is an awkward communicator. She’s prone to gaffes, to awkward jokes, to tortured analogies or stories, and is generally perceived as easy to mock.
That’s as balanced a take as you will find anywhere. It’s outright shocking from my experience reading Vox.
Kamala Harris Polling
Politico comments So You Wanted Some Harris Polling?
The question, of course, is simple: Can she win?
According to CNN’s JEFF ZELENY, the president himself has been asking about that. And a new survey conducted this week by a Democratic polling firm and shared first with West Wing Playbook provides an answer.
The data from Public Policy Polling found that Harris — with the right running mate — likely can defeat the Republican ticket of former President DONALD TRUMP and Ohio Sen. JD VANCE in two of the three “Blue Wall” states the Biden campaign now sees as critical: Pennsylvania and Michigan.
And, just as critically, the research shows that Biden’s prospects, as former Speaker NANCY PELOSI and many others have conveyed to him directly, are grim.
Public Policy Polling has long been a prolific firm in Democratic politics — it has only a 1.4-star rating out of 3 in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings — but given the intense debate around Biden’s embattled candidacy, it’s the existence of the polling that’s more important than its accuracy.
In a general election that also includes third-party candidates, Trump is leading Biden by one point in Michigan (45 percent to 44 percent) and four points in Pennsylvania (46 percent to 42 percent). Interestingly, Harris replacing Biden atop the ticket makes the Democrats’ chances worse in Michigan, with Trump leading her by five points (46 percent to 41 percent), and better in Pennsylvania, where she cuts Trump’s lead in half (45 percent to 43 percent percent).
But if Harris were to pick one of those state’s governors as her running mate, her chances would improve considerably.
In Michigan, Harris with Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER as her vice presidential nominee are dead even with Trump and Vance, tied at 46 percent according to the poll.
And in Pennsylvania, a hypothetical ticket with Harris running alongside Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO would run one point ahead of Trump and Vance.
Perhaps the clearest proof of Biden’s personal weakness is that, in both states, Democratic Senate candidates are running far ahead of him and holding leads outside the margin of error.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY leads Republican DAVE McCORMICK, 50 percent to 39 percent. And in Michigan, Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN leads former GOP Rep. MIKE ROGERS, 46 percent to 38 percent.
Let’s Be Honest!
Nate Silver discussed the Harris odds on July 12 in The Case for, and Against, Kamala Harris
Let’s be honest: she’d probably be an underdog. But she’s still a better option than Biden.
Harris-Gretchen Whitmer / Harris-Josh Shapiro
What are the odds if the Democrat ticket is Kamala Harris and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer?
How about Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro?
You don’t know and I don’t know. But we do know that it cannot possibly be any worse than the Biden-Harris odds.
Wonder Who
A She?
Shhh… Keep it a secret.
Now does that refer to Harris or is it a demand for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer?
Peak Trump?
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
That statement by no means implies anything other than a belief that Harris-Anyone has a better shot than Biden-Harris.
Laffin’ Kamala Taunt
A Warning to Trump
Don’t be stupid! And that taunt was stupid. Such silliness contributed massively to Trump’s loss in 2020. Trump would have won easily if he just acted presidential.
Yet, here we are with taunts immediately after a pledge to tone things down.
Trump could get away with this as long as it was Trump-Biden because Biden proved to be every bit as arrogant as Trump.
This Race Will Tighten
How much? We will not know for sure until about 10 days after the Democrat convention.
Meanwhile, Trump needs to start acting presidential immediately because the full impact of Biden dropping out is unknown, and will remain unknown perhaps until September.
There may be very little room for typical Trumpian mistakes.
Nothing Trump said in that tweet is a lie. What’s the problem? The Democrats boxed themselves into this and everything they do back-fires… miserably, but hilariously.
They did everything they could…and did all of it illegally…to destroys Trump…but ended up making him a living martyr.
I just don’t see too many ways Trump can lose, at this point.
The problem, as explained, is that it was politically idiotic.
It cannot possibly gain any votes but could costs potentially thousands.
It is absurd to have to state this when it is obvious (and I already explained it).
She is a far left San Francisco Democrat. I don’t see that playing out well for her in the swing States. And now that the spotlight is on her, her unlikeable personality will be on display for all to see.
Wonder if the author wishes to make an even odds bet on the laughing hyena? To make the dream ticket she needs AOC. Harris is so accomplished. I wish I had her autographed Willie Brown knee pads.
Apparently you can’t read.
I suggest reading my post again and if you still don’t get it, try remedial English comprehension lessons.
What happens if, in the middle of the campaign, Israel ignores lame-duck Biden and steps up its wars with Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran? It’s a Kobayashi Maru scenario for the democrat candidate.
“Trump needs to start acting presidential immediately”
If 4 years of On The Job Training can’t do it, nothing will.
Ten additional IQ points will qualify you as a Pet Rock.
Yesterday regime change rd #1/16 results : Kamala vs Obama.
Dear Spell Check,
Kamala is the leading candidate in the democrat party. Please stop suggesting that I should spell her name Kampala,Kamal, or Kamila.
Don’t forget that this is the same Kamala that was awarded ZERO delegates in the 2020 primary. She will get a boost because she is being compared to Joe Biden. But that will fade quickly once they realize that this is the same Kamala they didn’t vote for in 2020.
Trump’s presidency was built on nick names. He would not have won without them. Although I much prefer Kacklin’ Kamala.
Follow the money. I would not be surprised to eventually learn that the three of them (Joe, Jill and Hunter) used the threat of not dropping out of the race to extort the something of value from the party. It is speculation but not unreasonable given known family history.
-Mr. President, the donors are in revolt. You have to reject the nomination!
-That’s malarkey! Come on man, I’m Joe Biden. I will never drop out.
-Brrrrrrng, brrrrrrrrng.
-Who was that on the phone?
-Mr. President, it was President Obama. He says that if you don’t drop out you get no more ice cream.
-Ok, I’m out. I’ll take two scoops of chocolate chocolate chip!
Joe Manchin – an austerity candidate emerges?
The Democrats recent insurrection has been pretty amusing. Now, I am looking forward to the bloodletting at the next debate.,……already got the popcorn on the stove……
Biden didn’t quit bc of Lowy Body Dementia. He quit after the failed Trump assassination.
You don’t suppose Kamala threatened to finger him?
I didn’t say : “His” failed assassination attempt !!
Gamala is a daughter of an Indian mom and a Jamaican pop. She is married to a Jew. Harris is part of CA Indian/Jewish mafia, shaped by wall street. She can pull blacks, Latinos and suburban women away from Trump. The flyover scorn her. She
might overcome this hurdle with Roy Cooper or Andy Beshear as vp, Whitmer, Shapiro, the usual cheating and Biden, who poured billions in. The lame duck Biden
will clean his table for a fresh start. Biden might pardon the Jan 6 patriots and Trump,if jailed, to unite the country.
is I fix it more than once I get spam.
Wow, she is a mutt and her circle of friends reveals why she has autographed Willie Brown kneepads. Maybe this is why you think suburban women, Latinos, and blacks will cheer her on. Think of the wonders she worked as border czar. But at lleast she was stealing luggage at airports or decided that she was entitled to wear am admiral’s altered uniform or get her own “march.” So many accomplishments, just like that Kenyan.
Trump wins in a landslide, world economy crashes during his lame duck term and ushers in eight years of democrat progressive agendas.
You read it here first?
hasn’t that already happened years ago?
I
The US has truly gone to the dogs SO happy that I got the heck outta Dodge in 2015 This won’t end well for the dollar or ordinary Americans
president Kamala lol good one
The left is officially more focused on cheating than who’s running.
What if these 3 governors (Whitmer, Shapiro, Cooper) each look like better presidents than Harris? Pick one for Harris VP. That would be one strange, inverted ticket.
The communist choice
Why pick Harris when you could pick AOC?
A warning to Trump, don’t be stupid. Let that up to the experts, like Kamala. There is no way you can compete with Kamala on stupid.
Unfort he’ll think he has to
It was known inside Washington that Biden would drop out today. Ask around if you have any D.C. contacts. The insiders knew and it was never unexpected. As for Kamala Harris the words that come to mind are lazy and vapid. Her explanation regarding the Ukraine/Russia conflict is something you’d give to little children not during a press conference. You’ll certainly see it in Trump ads this fall. She was known as a poor study in Sacramento when she was AG. The Democrats will likely draft Shapiro since the public is tiring of Democratic Party wokeness. Two women on the ticket are unwise.
I’ve wondered why the Secret Service allowed Trump to go on stage if they had serious concerns about the assassin. It was a known issue for over an hour and they had the shooter in their sights for minutes but couldn’t get the order to shoot. What is the reason the Secret Service command has given? Even gross incompetence doesn’t really explain it. Who would allow a loved one to go on a stage under these circumstances?
It seems to me that Obama’s hand is all over this. Could Joe’s endorsement of Kamala be a FU to Obama for orchestrating the coup?
On X today- from @realBlagojevich:
“I’ve known Obama since2995. We both come out of Chicago politics. I know how it works. He’s behind the campaign to dump 15 million Dem primary voters & replace Biden with his choice. Classic Chicago machine politics.”
Fun Fact: the guy who was on the other end of Blago’s infamous phone call (bugged by FBI and US attorney Patrick Fitzgerald) to make a deal to appoint successor to Obama Senate seat was current Governor Fat@ss.
It is a reset but the democrats don’t have a message that rings with most voters. They would be better off throwing away the dnc playbook and let Harris rewrite it. There is plenty of room to remake the party in a manner similar to Bill Clinton. We know Trump and Biden economics were both failures for different reasons. Neither party has been able to do anything that radically addresses the elephant in the room — the US Debt. This issue is going to come to a head for whomever the next president is and not allow them to do much. A reality based approach and treating Americans like adults would be the way to go but it probably won’t happen.
Frankly, most average people probably don’t give a crap about the US debt. It’s too abstract and intangible. They care about how much a loaf of bread costs and whether they can pay their mortgage/rent.
I agree completly. But that view would change if the MM (Majority Media) would educate the public rather than keeping them in the dark.
What if every Boomer and their kids knew that the Debt (that we can’t afford pay back) includes trillions of dollars that are supposed to be the Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund balances?
We have to barrow cash every month (and have been for more than ten years) so we can pay SS benefits. Yet the MM tells us that SS benefits come from a Reserve, that is invisable but real.
Good Lord, a post from C O that I agree with.
‘Good Lord, a post from C O that I agree with.’
Trump’s near assassination, the Crowdstrike Crash, Biden quitting the race and now a rational post from Casual Oserver.
With wonders like these, it’s either time to buy a lottery ticket or head down to the bunker.
Harris is too short to be president.
Is this a joke about her being on her knees all the time?
My brother voted for her in California because she had a nice rack. I’ll never forget that bonehead comment.
The problem with the Democrats is that they try to play the underdog, when everyone knows they are the establishment. They are in power, yet don’t have any clear positive vision for the future, or any clear plans, only excuses and vitriolic criticism: they’re not a credible option.
I tend to agree. The trouble is that half the country at this point has latched onto victimhood for one reason or another. For some it is for direct financial gain, for others it is perceived credibility or prestige. Victimhood grifting is the clearest sign of the feminization of society. Playing the victim is a woman tactic to get what she wants. As a society we are worse off when female tendencies dominate. Too much Yin, we need to get the Yang back.
This topic keeps coming up. What happens to the money?
If Harris is not the nominee, the money will go to a Super-PAC likely structured in a way that mostly benefits the nominee.
It’s surprising to me that people think this would be a barrier of any kind. The democrats would find a way even if it was completely illegal to do and there would be no repercussions. Are there ever any for the establishment?
Harris will be the nominee. There are some legal issues pulling her at this late date and the Democrats have enough on their plate right now. Gretchen is a better pick but two whites on the ticket won’t sell black women on that change. Too risky in the states that the Dems must take.
I definitely wish Trump would stop the name calling and other middle-school behavior. He was a far better president than 46 and will likely give us a 4 year speed bump from the move to socialism … but I was a DeSantis and/or Vivek man because Trump’s calling of names and making other juvenile statements will lose him those who are not glued to him … and those that are glued to him will be fine if he fails to speak middle-school-ish for a week or ten.
So you don’t think Trump calling Harris a filthy whore is a good idea? You might be right, but it would be funny.
Oh man there’s a part of me that would love to see that.
Ideally Trump will act as a statesman/ gentleman and leave the kneepad cackler to be savaged by others.
Can’t wait for the next debate to see how badly the whore laughs when grilled over her border failure.
Perhaps Trump needs to start announcing a few of his intended cabinet nominations and let someone like Tulsi rip into Cameltoe Harris
I like DeSantis a lot. He’s an outstanding administrator and would have loved a DeSantis/Vance ticket. Someone had better tell Trump that this election is about staying out of court and maybe jail after the election. He needs to win the independent voters. To do that he should be gracious and if it’s a dig then BE FUNNY. Let the Ted Cruz types do the nasty stuff. The Soviet media of the U.S. wants to bury Trump so he’d be wise to listen to the people advising him to run his tweets and his speeches by them first.
War chest was in Biden-Harris name and legally could only go to Harris. If they have a brokered convention, Harris will have to come out on top (pun intended) or that money goes bye-bye and the candidate has to start over from scratch. Historical sidenote – any party coming out of a brokered convention has always lost. Hard to know, but it’s hard to bet against Mish on these things.
Wrong – The money can and would go to a Super-PAC
I’m not sure that can legally be done but I am sure that such a move would end up in front of a court.
Trump isn’t losing any voters from 2020.
The democrats have absolutely lost voters over the economy and their insane gender ideology. The dems have lost male voters and Kamala doesn’t do a thing to reverse that trend.
Finally the whole Israel Palestine issue has the party taking sides and I don’t see any reconciliation that is possible.
Agree Mike. I think that the Independent vote will prefer Trump over Harris. And the Dems are divided.
Plus I think that this Joe debacle has to impact their credibility right? Gaslighting people about Joe’s competency for years only to.turn on a dime at the eleventh hour proving all the ‘right wing conspiracy theories’ were actually correct? Please tell me there are people that can see it.
Trump should accuse her of supporting everything Gavin Vampire supports. She can’t because she does.
Kamala is the posterchild for DEI promotion of incompetetence for the sake of checkbox virtual signaling. She has shown herself to be utterly incompetent as a public speaker. The majority of the media will again attempt to brainwash the public into disbelieving their lying eyes and ears. A debate between her word salad nonsense style and Trump’s Flatbush street talk will be interesting. I’ve got my fingers crossed that her incompetetence gets the best of her.
I always figured she just checked off some boxes to get Biden in office. Though attempts were made to have her publicly active, she was so badly received that they withdrew her publicity for the most of her office term. She really has no serious redeeming merit to back her up, and that is why she’s failing to garner much D support. This country needs to overhaul the determinents for office qualifications, aka merit based and history of solid decisions and healthy ethics. For some reason, DC can’t fathom this and still wonders why Americans not living on a West or East coast loathes the majority of politicians.
Trump has dementia. That’s why he acts like he does.
Actually, he seems pretty vibrant, unlike President Crash Test Dummy
That’s a foolish interpretation. Trump’s shtick is to talk in ‘common man’ terms. He will pounce and get nasty only to turn around and offer the olive branch and be ingratiating to his former opponents once he had defeated them. He did it with most of his primary opponents for 2016. That’s why he discombobulates many college educated people – he takes a dump on all their high minded sensibilities. The main thing I want to see is if he can pivot when necessary and not keep using the same tactics even though the strategy might remain the same. I’m hoping he leverages Vance properly as an attack (devil) dog.
That theory sure worked in 2020 didn’t it?
Well I’m not sure we can really smugly say it was an unmitigated failure either. It was a mixed bag. Trump had to deal with an unprecedented amout of negative propaganda from most major media outlets, social media and so forth for four years. His failing is not that he does it but that he’s too repetitive and can push it too far. If he could only temper it a little bit he’d hit the sweet spot.
> What I think I know… but Who knows?
– Biden unexpectedly dropped out today with an official letter that did not endorse Kamala Harris.
> That’s because Biden Inc. can’t stand K and the thought of… you know.
– In a subsequent Tweet, Biden did endorse Harris.
> The Doc, with some ice cream, makes Brandon swerve all over the place. Does He really and truly know whom K is and what she Wants?
– The NYT commented that we do not know who wrote Biden’s letter.
> Hmm.. Biden. You know, the most obvious, realistic, Pick!
– Democrats are headed for an open convention but Harris is the presumed favorite.
> No Way they talked Old Joe into K or Bust!! No Way. Most definitely somebody (newer face?) other than Her, will be the Nominee.
>> I strongly sense some other older Democrats, will now be asked to also step aside as well. The can always use the “be careful what you wish/ask for” against one another.
The true scope of ideological lunacy of Dems is yet to be realized.
Instead of this being a chance to rethink their approach they will be plowing ahead and am expecting even greater exhibitions.
They are all sighing with relief that although Joe Biden was unable to bring them to their promised land of Socialism a new recruit will pick up that rainbow flag and march forward.
As the saying goes, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Keep in mind Gavin Newsom, just managed to drive SpaceX and X out of California. Is anyone there upset? No.
Why change course when you can live in denial and not have to confront what you have become?
“Why change course when you can live in denial and not have to confront what you have become?”
Concur, as there are actually people who think Harris is a truly viable candidate. All she has to do is talk and she makes even Trump sound like Churchill. I predict a landslide even with the inevitable ballot stuffing.
Meanwhile Trump has to act presidential. Unfortunately that will never happen. Like I said I fear he is going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. By not controlling his narcissistic bloviating and bullying he will damage America by losing to the far left bent on destruction of our country.
Trump is making choices with controlling his behavior in mind. Vance is a huge part of this Agenda, and aimed at the younger generations is regards to Trump himself.
He knows he is one and done this time, and wanted Vance in there to perhaps have a shot at 8 more “America First” years.
You’re thinking of this as a national election in which the popular vote matters. It doesn’t. First one to 270 electoral votes wins. If Trump carries the majority of the swing states, he wins fairly easily.
Another concern is will the left be able to do their illegal ballot harvesting. This is unprovable. All the furor over a rigged election couldn’t be verified because of this.
Trump’s mouth is a problem, but it also his asset – he can go off unscripted much more comfortably than the very carefully controlled, contrived, choreographed Democrats. All the Democrats had to do was get on top of the economy: they failed.
Trump is a back alley boaster…. curiously hes rather like Muhammad Ali in that regard. It’s a shtick that many stuffy college educated people find distasteful because it sh!ts all over their starchy elitist sensibilities. That’s why there’s a blue collar shift in the Republican party. It’s not the country club party any more. By contrast the Democrats became the party of silicon Valley, Hollywood and coastal elites that want to lecture to the common man and show him the error of his ways while calling him deplorable. I agree though that it needs to be done in a calculated way and tempered when necessary.
Kamala went from debating Vance to debating Trump (if she’s nominated). This is going to be interesting.
Equally interesting will be her VP choice. Undoubtedly a DEI pick.
I’m sort of hoping for Warren though I have no idea what her polling is. I can’t imaging people rushing to join the shrill shrieking shrew patrol that ticket would be.
The last eight days were extremely volatile and dramatic. They ended up in a coupe. Fifty percent of the voters are independent. Many of them feel relief. Biden, under no pressure, will campaign with her. He has six months to establish an agenda for Harris to surf on, if elected. Biden agenda is Trump agenda. Biden divorced the radical left and moved to the middle. He no longer fears them.
Harris and Roy Cooper NC, not Shapiro or Whitmer.
What makes you believe the Dems have abandoned the Left?
Rent Control was Bidens latest. Is that off the Table now?
Biden will absolutely not campaign with her. Believe me, now that he is not running the rest of the party will distance themselves from him as fast as possible. When he offers to help, he will be politely declined.
It’s fun to play the prediction game, but I have no confidence that anyone really knows what will happen.
There are 107 days until the election, and consider how much has happened (or nearly happened) in the past 107 days.
This is a very nonlinear situation – chaos theory reigns. And the pace is accelerating.
Not since at least 1968 have there been so many wildcards in the deck … maybe not since the 1800s.
1968 is an apt analogy.
Biden stepping down from re-election basically makes him the modern day LBJ, another guy unwanted and unloved by his party and the country that he was unable to seek reelection.
Sort of. LBJ still had his mind. Biden has moderate dementia and seemingly quickly getting worse. Thank goodness Dr. Jill is there, hand on the tiller. /s
His presidency will ultimately be remembered for the way it ended (a disaster and mentally unfit to continue). So he’ll rank essentially the same as LBJ in terms of presidential legacy / how great a president he was.
I just don’t see how Harris is going to do any better than Biden against Trump. Like Hillary, Harris is not likable. She’s also pretty dumb to boot.
That’s a great take…Harris is a stupider DEI version of Hillary.
Mike your opinion sometimes just plain Suck on what Trump says.
Got an example of what you don’t like?
Harris never got a single vote for the presidential nomination 4 years ago and the changes since then have been her failure on the border, demonstrating she talk for several minutes spewing nonsense and the democrat’s bench is nearly nonexistent, a positive for KH but a negative for the democratic ticket no matter the names. I doubt the democrats win the house, senate or presidency with either identity politics or with their positions on issues. They are basically in salvage mode for the party at this point.
They are also the party of forced mRNA injections, martial law, endless proxy wars, genital mutilations madness….basically an evil party devoted wholly to unforgivable human rights violations.
How does this play out in the end? “The polls will tighten”…which translates as “The Democrat Cheat Machine in the Battleground States needs tightening polls to cover for planned election ‘hinkey’.” If the managed polls are close enough they’ll get away with it?
The Democrats have tried everything against Trump and I mean EVERYTHING. This bullet in the ear was no accident. He’s had very loose protection for years and this assassination attempt was timed too perfectly and the Secret Service “protection” was too incompetent for it to be a complete accident. The only thing left in the tool box is to steal votes. This Democratic Party is Bolshevik in ruthlessness in their drive for power. I’d put nothing past them. They have control of the state and control of the media which is why I’d bet Trump will lose no matter how many people vote for him.
The polls will tighten. They will get a Kamala boost followed by a convention boost. Then reality will set in and she will drop like a rock like she did in 2020. Don’t forget that Kamala garnered ZERO delegates in 2020. Dems can’t stand her.
from your lips to….
We are not in recession. Both Trump and Harris are pro wall street. In the next six months, until Jan 20, Biden will force Israel to sign a ceasefire with Hamas and close the southern border.
You talk like Biden is actually in charge. He clearly isn’t.
Even if Biden or his handlers close the Southern border today the damage has happened. There are 10 million plus illegals clogging the streets of cities like NY and angering the locals and they will remain a festering sore unless something is done. You think the Dems will start mass deportations? With only 100 days or so to the vote it would need a thousand bus loads every day sent over the border to get the numbers down by less than half.
That is possible if the Dems all agreed to such a drastic action and you know the woke part of the party will fight that.
No change. Trump’s baseline is about 6.5% ahead, and will likely grow after Labor Day. The liberal media will promote the hell out of Kamalatoe because they put her there, but it will cut no ice with anyone other than the stalwarts. As I have consistently and repeatedly said here since March, the election will be about the economy unless the NYC judge sends Trump to prison.
The economy has been weakening all year, and unemployment is rising. That is what will determine the winner, as it has in 18 of the 19 post-WW2 elections. The campaigns will determine the margin, but not the result. Unless the judge imprisons him and tears the country apart, Trump will be elected.
Correct.
I refuse to treat this election like a horserace… there is no contest here.
It’s over – Dems lose in a landslide in every scenario.
You don’t know who the candidate is yet.
name a viable Dem candidate… i’ll wait…
all potential Dem candidates lose this election badly.
Two and I already named them
Fingers crossed and no ballot stuffing.
That’s racist.
Landslide will be determined by the campaigns. The only sure bet on that one would have been if they passed over Kamalatoe, which they will not do. Not even the Dems are THAT stupid.
After the Supreme Court’s backing of Trump’s official actions, I seriously doubt any judge would have the guts to lock up Trump. Besides, he’d be out on appeal before sentencing day was over!
Polling for Trump might improve as people learn who Harris is and what she’s done. Wasn’t she in charge of border security?
Are we sure a coherent liberal is more electable than an incoherent one?
https://apnews.com/general-news-3400f56255e000547d1ca3ce1aa6b8e9
If the Trump campaign is smart (big “if” considering Trump’s stupid, unhinged comments today) they would focus on illegal immigration and nothing else with her.
A “border Czar” (Kamala’s title) isn’t a real thing. Mayorkas is in charge of border security and his mission was successful: To open it as wide as possible to all comers. What else can the “Department of Homeland Security” do, anyway? It’s right there in the name.
No one voted for him either.
If they stick Kamala in Joe’s basement and make sure the Philadelphia Fixers are in place, they can win just like 2020. Let her loose on a microphone and they’ve got a problem.
By the way, I am convinced they dunked Biden on that debate–he wasn’t on uppers for the first time in a major appearance. His doctor said “No mas”. And Hunter’s connection couldn’t get past security. They won’t do that twice.
The minute Kamala opens her mouth nationally as the presidential contender, the polls will start dropping. If she could keep quiet and not cackle, maybe she would be better off but still lose.
The Border Czar versus Orange Julius. Funny.
Anyway, Harris is certain to pick a female, if that is allowed to be said in 2024, as V.P.
2024 will bte the girls versus the boys.
Meanwhile, China and Russia press on.
Nope. Josh Shapiro. That’s why he endorsed her today.
Never underestimate the veejayjay vote!
I agree that Josh Shapiro is the logical pick. He’s from Pennsylvania and is tied in with the Jewish neo-con movement. That’s a powerful group with lots of money and the support of the American media. He’d be my pick.
But would that pick turn off the pro Hamas section of the Dem base? Many will stay away from the polls in places with either a large woke campus or from places like Dearborn which will cost them Michigan.
Trump seemed disinterested in 2016 when he debated Hillary. I think Trump comes out full force, but presidential, against Harris in the debates.
Concur. I think his demeanor has changed. Maybe a brush with death has sobered him up a bit.
On the one hand, “Harris is younger, can actually string sentences together,” and on the other, “Harris is an awkward communicator. She’s prone to gaffes, to awkward jokes, to tortured analogies or stories, and is generally perceived as easy to mock.”
The problem with stringing sentences together is that they should actually convey meaning. Joe can’t do either and the only improvement Kamala brings to the table is the ability to join words together without mumbling. But meaning? She’s almost as addled as Joe. The fact that she is an “awkward communicator” is more indicative of her inability to process complex ideas and foment and articulate clear policy prescriptions. What we get from that article is the rousing campaign slogan of , “Vote for Kamala! You can understand the words she’s saying when she’s speaking nonsense!”