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Who's Really Ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate Race?

Let's discuss what 538 says about the Pennsylvania Senate race and why its take is likely to be far off the mark.
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538 Pennsylvania Senate forecast October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

538 Pennsylvania Senate forecast October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

Which Polls are Influencing Pennsylvania 

538 Senate Polls October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

538 Senate Polls October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

FiveThirtyEight claims to weight the newer polls. But if so, it appears barely noticeable. 

Four Recent Polls

  • Co-Efficient: Oz +3
  • Wick: Oz +2
  • YouGov: Fetterman +2 
  • Insider Advantage: Oz +3

The average is Oz +1.5

The average of the three most recent polls is Oz + 2.67

I fail to see how this can possibly translate to a 58% chance for Fetterman. 

It will be interesting to see what the next Trafalgar poll is but I bet it's not Fetterman +2.

What's the Problem Here?

  • 538 does not properly factor in momentum.
  • 538 does not properly factor in the debate, a disaster for Fetterman.

The biggest problem is models don't think! They are trained in generalities as if the generalities are what matters this time. Such generalities failed a couple of elections in a row for reasons pollsters do not understand. 

The 538 model has an additional problem in its inability to see how the debate impacted the odds. It needs more polls to verify the obvious.

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Of course, the problem with most humans is they think about the wrong things or believe what they want to believe. 

As more polls come in, 538 will likely get closer and closer. But if there were no new polls, the 538 Pennsylvania odds probably would remain as silly as they seem now.

Things can still change, in either direction, but the most likely direction is towards Republicans.

Good News For Republicans

Senator Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware, told Fox News Sunday that Democrats are running on their record. 

That should seal it.

Joking aside, there is a lot at stake here. 

If Democrats were to magically retain the House and Senate, they would unleash an inferno of free money and energy inflation, perhaps topping what we saw in the 70s. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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