Nonstore retailers are holding pandemic gains as department stores slowly sink into oblivion.
Non-store retailers include kiosks, vending machines, direct selling, telemarketing, direct marketing and e-tailing. Amazon is the largest non-store retailer.
I calculate the percentage excluding items that cannot or normally do not happen except in person. That list includes gas stations, food services, grocery stores, and motor vehicles.
Nonstore Retail Sales as Percent of Advance Retail Sales Detail
34 percent of sales excluding those items are now made online. Amazon is the biggest beneficiary and department stores are the biggest loser.
Advance Retail Sales Major Categories
Department stores are dying a slow death. There really is no point to them.
Big Surge in Retail Sales Will Put More Fed Rate Hikes on the Table
On October 17 I noted Big Surge in Retail Sales Will Put More Fed Rate Hikes on the Table
Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% in September vs. 0.3% expected. The Commerce Department revised August from 0.6% to 0.8%.
See the above link for more details.
Trucking Recession Deepens: Convoy Suspends Operations and Cancels All Shipments
In a related post, note the Trucking Recession Deepens: Convoy Suspends Operations and Cancels All Shipments
There’s some sad news today in the trucking business today that unfortunately has some people cheering.
Why the Cheers?
“Early investments came from vehicles backed by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore.”
Lots of people hate Bill Gates and Al Gore. Bezos is mot particularly well liked either.
But it’s not like Bill Gates, Al Gore, or Jeff Bezos is going to be hurt by this. It will hardly matter to them at all.
Meanwhile, housing is in the gutter, auto companies are on strike, inflation is soaring, mortgage rates are 8.0 percent, and there is excess capacity in the shipping business.
I shop on line to avoid the knockout game. Mingling with the hoi polloi can get you killed. Prices are lower on line. I save gasoline. I save time. Ebay first. Department stores second, DuckDuckGo third, High priced Amazon last.
I absolutely HATE ordering things online. I almost NEVER get what I thought I was getting and it’s never on time.
So simple ordinary things like maybe pet food, sure, that fine to order online but cloths? NEVER AGAIN.
Why exclude auto parts?
Amazon used to be good, years ago. Now mostly overpriced or garbage from China. I had Amazon prime but dropped it because I wasn’t buying much from them anymore and their two day delivery promise starting averaging out to more than three days.
Amazon is seeing a lot of IP theft, leading to counterfeit items all over the platform. Then there’s the flip side of things, dubious lawsuits a-plenty. Surely an American classic-
link to technologyreview.com
1) Some stores have gone to an immersive experience to keep traffic high. Scheels here in Colorado Springs has aquariums, a ferris wheel, a restaurant, a coffee shop, candy store etc. for an outdoors and sporting goods department store.
2) This sounds like another massive headwind for commercial real estate
3) Covid was a small business massacre, and big box stores didn’t fare much better
4) I sure miss book stores….
Yeah, once in a while I’ll spot an old musty bookstore while traveling. I always try stop in and by something.
ATS, if you are ever in the Portsmouth, NH area, then you will amaze yourself if you go look at “The Antiquarian Bookstore” on 1070 Lafayette Rd
Portsmouth, NH 03801
Place is a Gem!
Honest question here…
My wife’s old Gore-Tex raincoat gave up the ghost after 15 years of abuse. She wanted me to buy her a new one for her birthday. I checked around online and found what she was looking for. I purchased it online, direct from the manufacturer. The brand is also available from specialty ‘outdoor’ stores. Can this be typical? With the manufacturer being able to sell directly to the consumer, doesn’t that undermine their distributor network? Maybe this was just an anomaly?
So its basically a question of … searching.
1) UAW strike might dim motor vehicles and part sales.
2) Israel/Hamas might dim Xmas sales.
3) The high cost of shipping might inhibit e-commerce.
4) The high cost of food and drinking might be rejected.
5) In Q3/4 bears eat a lot of berries, before hibernation ==> that’s Bidenomic.
E-commerce delivery via Prime, UPS, FedEx, USPX…is expensive.
The costs of shipping packages and trucks co bk might inhibit e-commerce. People want to shop around people, e-commerce is boring.
Bezo parks on the wrong side of the street and turns around in neighbors’ driveways. UPS doesn’t.
No shrieking hellspawn running around Amazon.
I always check Amazon First, check the HIGH PRICE and shop at two other retailers: Walmart or Temu. Both of the latter on-line purveyors are less expensive.
I do the same but take the lower price to a local store and see if they’d want to match. Most of the times they do and I know they’ll be there to support me when I need it.
Yeah, but …. Amazon is just a broker, bringing sellers and buyers together … and brokers get killed eventually. Amazon doesnt really do anything but be a computer program, and anyone can write a better computer program. 150 years ago was Sears the behemoth who offered everything from its “high-tech” catalog? We also havent addressed all the vehicles and fuel and humans who deliver that cant be a loss leader forever (all my deliveries are free and not everything I order can be delivered by drone). My bet is in 30 years Amazon will be a quaint memory … similar to prime time TV and big band music.
Yeah, but … The U.S. Postal Service is just a Delivery Carrier, bringing Families together. Delivery Carriers get killed eventually. The USPS doesn’t really do anything but be a Delivery Carrier, and anyone can be a better Delivery Carrier. We already have Fed-x, Amazon, Uber, Etc. We addressed all the vehicles and fuel and humans who deliver, and that cant be a loss leader forever, so we have the Taxpayers footing the bill. Hey it’s their mail after all. Tell them to buy a computer (all my Email deliveries are free). My bet is in 10 years USPS will be a quaint memory… similar to TV, MSM, CD’s, AM/FM Radio, And the likes.
The post office is established and guaranteed in the Constitution, Stu. Amazon aint.
Scott , you need to read up on your constitutional understanding of the actual Constitution. Nowhere does it state anything close to what you just stated, and I mean nowhere!
Not that you even remotely answered my actual article that was in regards to DELIVERY, which has nothing to do with Post Offices. I think everyone understands Mail is protected Federally however.
– Article 1, Section 8 says that Congress shall have the power to establish Post Offices and Post Roads.
> Establish means to institute with agreement.
– Nowhere does it state that the federal government shall have the exclusive power to DELIVER MAIL. Nor DOES IT REQUIRE THAT THE MAIL BE DELIVERED BY THE Government OR EVEN to every home in the country, six days a week.
Do your homework if you’re going to make statements to someone else about what they said, and in this case didn’t say.
Thank you!
The evidence I see supporting your theory are threats from albiba and now Temu. The US government passed a law to eliminate import tax on orders less than around $800. Chinese companies set up stores on Amazon and WalMart, and did some warehousing and fulfilling with Amazon / Walmart as well. Now I’m seeing Chinese sellers on Amazon shipping directly from China. Some Chinese sellers on Amazon also set up shops on Alibaba and Temu. Prices are lower on Alibaba and Temu than on Amazon. Now that Americans are hooked on online shopping, they will foolishly start to buy from Alibaba/Temu. There are already fulfillment, quality, and customer service problems when dealing with sellers on Walmart. I can’t believe their service will be any better using Alibaba and Temu since it would be cost prohibitive to sue in Chinese court.
“..foolishly start to buy from Alibaba/Temu. There are already fulfillment, quality, and customer service problems ”
As if guys successfully competing in the insanely cut-throat Chinese market, won’t solve such problems quicker, better and cheaper than the guys over here that they quickly have learned how to do everything else quicker, better and cheaper than….
Walmart and Amazon are hardly anything more than Chinese storefronts as it is. They got a head start from invariably understanding their local market better. But I sure wouldn’t bet they’ll be able to stay ahead of Chinese actors for all that long.
Chinese retail; of everything; is nuts, wrt how thin the margins everyone seems able to operate with. Even highly specialised stuff, which everywhere else would entail “talking to a live salesman about a deal” type transactions with attending cost/markup; can somehow be bought almost markup free there. Once Chinese retailers grow, or merge, to build up to a critical mass of individual-US-region orders to fill containers daily to weekly…….. Good luck trying to undersell those guys.
You won’t get “free” next day delivery like US stockists. But if you could save 25-30% by waiting another few days….. Plus have access to whole ‘nother level of selection… And it’s not just typical Amazon trinkets. Even mining trucks seem to be sold Amazon style over there, with volumes of everything being so huge.
Amazon also does a lot of the logistics. That’s why they have all those vans and huge buildings around the country. A department store just brings buyers and sellers together.
UPS and FedEx seem to be somewhat redundant. The post office handles the letters and small boxes, UPS does the big boxes, FedEx does ???. It used to be next day, but does that still apply? Are they still the only ones who can do that?
Harder to rob those other stores too. Computers make comparisons much easier.