Senator Joe Manchin becomes the 5th Senator asking Biden to drop out. The DNC says the official vote is August 7, with the Convention starting the 19th.
Pass the Torch, President
The Wall Street Journal reports Joe Manchin Calls on Biden to ‘Pass the Torch’
“I come with a heavy heart to think the time has come for him to pass the torch to a new generation,” Manchin (I., W.Va.) said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”
Previewing the potential fight to come, Manchin also broke with some other Democrats and called for an open process to pick a new nominee, a further sign that the party has no clear consensus on what it would do if Biden did step down.
In a new ABC News/IPSOS poll released on Sunday, Trump’s favorability rating rose to 40%, the highest point since 2020. Biden’s favorability was at 32%, and 60% of poll respondents said Biden should drop out of the race.
On Sunday, some of the president’s most stalwart supporters continued to stand by him.
“I support Joe Biden,” Rep. Jim Clyburn, widely credited with saving Biden’s candidacy in 2020, said on CNN. “He is still in this race. He will be our nominee if he stays in the race…if he were to change his mind, then I will change mine.”
Another ally, Rep. Ro Khanna, said on ABC: “He’s running on a working-class agenda, rent caps, expanding Social Security. You can’t just have someone, after the fact, engineer a ticket that may not be consistent with where the Democratic primary electorate is.”
The New Last Until Date
The DNC was scheduled to hold it’s official vote starting tomorrow, July 22.
However, the open convention supporters made such as stink that the DNC reset the vote to a roll call on August 7 according to the WSJ.
NBC says voting will starts on or after August 1 but must be tallied by August 7 .Many challenge the DNC statement because the August 7 date pertained to Ohio rules that have since been changed.
If the procedure is now a roll call, August 6 or 7 seems likely. Instead, if voting by ballot starts on August 1, that is the realistic drop out date.
Whatever the true drop out date (somewhere between August 1 and August 7), if Biden can last until then, he becomes the official nominee.
If Biden drops out after he is nominated, the torch goes to Kamala Harris. If he drops out before being nominated, there will be an open convention.
Rent Caps
Yes indeed, Biden is running on rent caps. Are they $55 dollars or 5 percent?
I played that several times and this is what I came up with “I am about to announce you can’t raise it more than 55 dollars.”
On July 17, I reported Biden Seeks Supreme Court Term Limits, Medical Debt Cancellation, Rent Controls
Dear Biden Speech Writers
Dear Biden speech writers, you are advised to not use the % sign in teleprompts because Biden might confuse % with a 5.
Also, I suggest a much larger font. Otherwise “rent more than 55%” might come out like “board man 55 dollars” which is what Biden actually sounded like as he struggled with the teleprompter.
Powell Says the US Really Needs to Fix the Unsustainable Deficit
Dear president Biden, please note that Powell Says the US Really Needs to Fix the Unsustainable Deficit
And here you go promising free money to eliminate medical debt, more student loan forgiveness, and every other wet dream of the Progressives including rent control that has backfired everywhere it’s been tried.
Good News, Warren Supports Kamala Harris If Biden Drops Out
Yesterday I commented Good News, Warren Supports Kamala Harris If Biden Drops Out
Here’s a bit of good news for Republicans, courtesy of Elizabeth Warren. If Biden drops out, Harris is likely the worst candidate Democrats could reasonably field.
It appears Warren prefers the “gentle nudge” tactic over the “big swift kick” theory.
I commented on donors earlier in Kamala Hangs Up on Donors, 12 More Democrats Ask Biden Drop Out
A growing tide of Democrats including Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio ask Biden to step aside. Kamala Harris huddles with donors on a phone call then hangs up on them.
Also Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris defended Biden during a contentious call with Democratic donors at a time when wealthy financiers feel misled by the president and are vowing to not give money to his campaign. The call abruptly ended before Harris would field any donor questions.
On the Friday donor call, Harris and others tried to tamp down a growing revolt. Harris didn’t take questions. When donors tried to speak, the organizer quickly ended the call.
The Growing Tide
The growing tide is not up to five senators. I lost track of the House members. However CBS News has an Up-to-Date Tally as of 10:30 Eastern on Sunday.
There are 32 House members and 5 Senators asking Biden to stand down. There are three additional house members who privately asked Biden to exit.
CBS notes Mr. Biden also called into MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” saying “I’m more than presumptive, I’m gonna be the Democratic nominee.” He expressed frustration with “the elites” doubting his fitness for another term, saying “any of these guys that don’t think I should run — run against me. Go ahead, announce for President. Challenge me at the convention.”
It appears Biden does not know how this works. It will not be possible to challenge him at the convention because it will be official on or shortly after August 7.
Epic Infighting
Infighting among democrats has reached epic levels to the point backers are labeling a donation pep talk by Harris as ludicrous. What a hoot.
The democrats cannot unite against Trump as long as they are hopelessly split into two major factions.
Two Factions
- Progressive Loyalists: This faction includes President Biden, Elizabeth Warren, AOC, and the Congressional Black Caucus. The loyalists are further split into two camps. Those who are openly loyal to Biden and those who support a gentle nudge but only to Harris.
- Open Conventionists: This faction is led by donors plus a growing number of Congressional Democrats who prefer an open convention and a better shot at winning than going down with the loyalist ship.
How Long Can Biden Last?
If you think Biden can last until November, I think you are wrong. A much better question is: Can Biden last until August 7?
Once the roll call vote is taken, it will not be possible to remove Kamala from the ticket even if Biden subsequently drops out.
Wishin’ and Hopin’
If you are a Republican, that should be wishin’ and hopin’ for Biden to hang on at least until the DNC makes it official.
An open convention would give Democrats the best shot. Ironically, the DNC seems hell bent on preventing that outcome.
Nate Silver Blasts the 538 Election Forecast, His Previous Site
I discussed other candidates including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Nate Silver Blasts the 538 Election Forecast, His Previous Site
I caution, this election is not over.
75 percent ≠ 100 percent. Few seem to understand the importance of that mathematical fact.
The best chances for Republicans are if Biden can hang on until until the bitter end, and second, if Biden is replaced by Harris. Regarding the latter, the later the better.
Meanwhile, if you are a Democrat, you are likely dismayed by Biden’s increasingly arrogant and outright Trumpian belief that he and he alone can win.
Joe Manchin for president! Hillary has been very quiet…
Just announced he’s out.
There is also a difference between the 30+ Democrats asking Biden to step down. Progressives endorse Harris, but moderates want an open convention or mini primary. Barak Obama is trying his best to play both sides.
thanks, Mish, you’ve become my goto source for economic and political analysis
(you beat out Zerohedge and X by a hair) but hey a win is a win!
PS ZH led me to you so it all worked well for me
Hey Mish, I wonder if the 55 was a typo by whoever typed it in to the Teleprompter. If the typist didn’t fully hold down the shift key while typing % it would show up on Sleepy Joe’s screen as a second 5…
It’s possible and I knew that. But Biden ought to know what his own plan is!
He was struggling reading everything off the teleprompter. Leaning into it to see.
Are the dementocrats ready to eat a lot of word salads?
Biden says he is dropping out. Let the cult conspiracies begin.
His cabinet is gutless as they can use the 25th amendment to remove him immediately
Speaker Johnson hasn’t heard the news. He’s fumbling with the pull-chain light in his closet.