Do you believe the nonfarm payroll report for January 2026?
January Benchmark Revisions
- 2024: -511,000
- 2025: -785,000
- 2026: ???
2025 Analysis
- For the full year in 2025, the economy only added 229,000 jobs
- From July through December, the economy lost 45,000 jobs
Now we are supposed to believe the economy added 130,000 jobs in January of 2026.
January 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector in Thousands
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +130
- Manufacturing: +5
- Construction: +33
- Leisure and Hospitality: +1
- Private Education and Health Care: +137
- Professional and Business Services: +34
- Information: -12
- Financial: -22
- Retail: +3
- Wholesale: 0
- Government: -42
Private education and health (demographic related) is again the strongest sector.
Do You Believe This?
Even if you believe that (and we will not know until a year from now), a job loss of 45,000 in the second half of 2025 is hardly crushing it.
Tariffs Working as Expected
Foreign Born Nonsense
For 2024, the BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million, spread out over a number of years. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.
All posts on foreign-born employment suffer this flaw. There are no back adjustments. We did not suddenly add 2.245 million jobs in January of 2025, all US-Born.
Nor did foreign-born employment rise in January of 2026. There is no valid data on foreign born employment.
More Nonsense From Trump
Related Posts
February 11, 2026: BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs
For the second year, the BLS annual benchmark revision was hugely negative.
February 11, 2026: Household Survey Jobs Data Is Garbage Due to Missing Population Adjustments
The BLS did not release the expected household annual population adjustments.
Addendum
Incredulous typically refers to a person. I changed the title to incredible.
https://fortune.com/2026/02/12/stocks-wall-street-us-jobs-number-fed-rate-cuts/
From the above:-
Some folks on Wall Street think yesterday’s U.S. jobs number is ‘implausible’ and thus due for a downward correction
‘January 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector in Thousands’: Private Education and Health Care: +137; Uh, change that to +237, got it?
There, fixed it for all
Well, gosh darn, Merv: so what if priv ed and health care are the big winners??? Huh?
Uh, what if a huge proportion of that +137 or even the +237 is FRAUDULENT (like ya know what happens in Minehaha and other Minnesota cities???)
This seems to nail it:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/folks-wall-street-think-yesterday-113144431.html
“Some folks on Wall Street think yesterday’s U.S. jobs number is ‘implausible’ and thus due for a downward correction”
Government data is not very reliable. Many people now doing gig work, or holding multiple part time jobs. If you work an hour, you are employed.
Furthermore most are experiencing a falling standard of living. Government, through aggregate numbers constantly tells us, the consumer is strong.
Government is corrupt and incompetent.
WMD is my GOLD STANDARD, for figuring out who is downright idiot or not. of course intelligence and cunning and wealth, has nothing to do with wisdom. wisdom, is the true rare earth riches…..
Hung out yesterday with a friend who listens to conservative radio. His take was that the earlier job numbers reflected loss of government jobs stemming from the doge efforts, and now that those are in the rear view mirror, we see better numbers. Intuitively that sounds wrong, since the doge job cuts didn’t really seem to amount to much.
it’s a cult. like it was under Kennedy and FDR and Lincoln and Teddy and Washington and Raygun and Hitler and Mussolini. human primates love to worship cult heroes. i’d guess at least 98% have done this in their family history past few generations. i find it fascinating actually. love speaking to the modern MAGA cult members. the extra bonus ones, think they came from nothing, too. in amerika in the past century. bwaaaaaaahhhhhhhh.
Incredible describes something you can’t believe because it’s so right, like a incredible double rainbow. Incredulous describes how you feel when you can’t believe something because it’s so wrong, like when someone endorses broadcasting pornography to children.
The dubious jobs report
Incredible is it’s so good or bad it defies belief.
Incredulous means you’re on the threshold but it’s just too high.
Welcome to the DJT School of Hot Air…
Wasn’t it Trump University?
Everything he ever did was a con — leaving others to pick up the pieces and deal with his unpaid loans & expenses.
If the economy is booming with so many jobs why is it necessary to lower the rate to save money on debt when tax revenues should cover the debt? And what happened to tariffs paying for everything and replacing the income tax?
And if 10,000 boomers are retiring every day and every year thru 2030 that’s a loss of 300,000 workers every month. You want to be conservative? ok, let’s say 150,000/month.
All the illegals are being kicked out and those still here are hiding so jobs and wages should be surging but they are not so what gives? How many was that again? 20 million? 30 million? 60 million? Pick your number MAGA losers and do the math for me.
WTF are the jobs and wage surges? Where are those trillions in foreign investments building factoring and creating billions of high paying jobs?
Bonus question: why are farmers crops still sitting in silos or rotting? When is China going to buy those soybeans?
The only numbers we know for 100% certainty are the ones coming out of the social security snapshot that shows a growing exponential number of leeches draining the Treasury coffers. 75m leeches costing $134 billion/month and growing.
Trump has screwed things up around the world that we will now have fragmented payment systems across the world as EU ditches Visa and Mastercard payment networks. They are also ditching the Google/Microsoft duopoly. They picked the right time to do it, with AI they can build their own platforms relatively quickly.
https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/europes-24-trillion-breakup-with-visa-and-mastercard-has-begun/
What’s happening? ECB President Christine Lagarde told Irish radio that Europe needs its own digital payment system “urgently,” warning that virtually all European card and mobile payments currently run through non-European infrastructure controlled by Visa, Mastercard, PayPal or Alipay. Days later, on 2 February, the European Payments Initiative (EPI) and the EuroPA Alliance signed a landmark agreement to build a pan-European interoperable payment network covering 130 million users across 13 countries. The system, built around the digital wallet Wero, aims to let Europeans pay and transfer money across borders without touching a single American network.
Better revisit your investment portfolio and make sure you don’t get caught with your Visa/Mastercard pants down. Time to reposition for new profits.
Does “got exit strategy” sound good yet?
Ill make it simple. If everything is so great why are the republicans worried about mid terms.
if you are still caught up in the uniparty game, i have a bridge for sale
All payment systems are at risk in the Eurozone because of CBDCs regardless of Trumps policy. They are going to go that route anyways as part of their internal controls.
ECB still wants to go to the zero bound. We’re lowering rates, but we’re not in that bad of shape. Remember Powell raised rates during the Biden admin which was a direct assault on the Yen and Euro. As much as you want to believe it’s all Trumps fault, there is still a bipartisan effort to wage war on Europe. That’s because it’s not about the left vs right, but it’s because of what the American bankers want. That’s why we have people like Powell and Bessent in charge. They are nothing like Yellen or Bernanke who come from a much different camp.
I think your first paragraph is the most important point because no one actually believes we’ll grow our way out of debt. My bet is we will see a major structural change in the plumbing as a work around. Think of other big events like Bretton-Woods, closing the gold window, or QE. For example the FED revaluing gold holdings when spot is $20,000 an ounce… Also the FED and Treasury are very pro crypto, somehow that will be used to reinvent the system.
I’m just writing this because there is so much happening in the financial space that really is seperate of Trump.
GREAT points. i concur. the blue v red BS is hogwash. trump is a standard old Dem like FDR with a nasty tongue. ever speak to any old ranching family that were ordered to kill cattle under FDR while people in their counties were starving? the hasidic butchers took it to the supremes. all empires die off. ours was a standard few centuries. our only difference is we voted for all this. like the romans did. unlike the UK and spanish and french………..queens and kings……………..my family moved all their gold to toronto in 1933 when FDR made it illegal to own in USA for amerikans.
Are you kidding? US debt/revenue ratio (north of 650%) is far worse than any Euro country, including Greece. In my country it’s not even 100%.
And for what it’s worth, private debt stocks determine the economic trajectory far more than public debt.
stay and pick over the clearance sale, and help some old family and friends……….when the last evil empire crumbled, the USSR, it was awesome to be in Russia in the 90s. this is going to end well. i’m not joking. EVIL EMPIRES CRUMBLING IS A WONDERFUL THING FOR MANKIND. inside and outside of our borders……………..hip hip hoooray. the evil empire of uniparty voters have lost the world’s sympathy we had after 9.11.01. amerikans are cunts. that is coming to an end.
People have known for a long-time that you cannot depend on Americans, especially everything to do with data, security, privacy. Nor anything they aver about national security.
But with Trump, the concerns have just moved move the shoulder lane to the middle of the road. Next thing they’ll start doubting Russia is the enemy instead of the actual occupation forces.
jerk that knee!
Banana republic status has been achieved!
But to be fair these numbers have always been totally screwy… nobody can really take them seriously
Are you saying Trump is a banana?
Many analysts were saying that even 14k jobs are month would be enough as population growth is zero due to lack of immigration. From 14k to get 135k ? Incredible. What’s next? 400k?
Meanwhile, on the Epstein front…Pam Bondi talks about the DOW.
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/2021646468134928477
You were raped repeatedly, but we jammed the Dow to 50K JUST FOR YOU. All better? Many Trump voters just enjoy him “owning the libs” at times like this by instructing his AG to make a mockery of justice and the justice system itself.
Perhaps Trump kept the same bullsh!tters Biden had at the BLS
Enjoy the koolaid.