That’s a big IF that isn’t happening, but what IF?
Analyst Suggests Two Months
The Wall Street Journal reports Two Months for Gulf Oil Output to Fully Return After War Ends, Analyst Says
If the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ended today, it would take two weeks to restore shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf to normal and another two months to get oil production back to normal levels, said Anas Alhajji, a well-known oil-market analyst and managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors. And that’s an optimistic scenario.
Alhajji said it is possible that groups with access to cheap drones could continue wreaking havoc on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends. “Everyone I know is concerned,” Alhajji said. “Decentralized military activities by the Iranian regime and its cronies in the region, especially in Iraq, can inflict serious damage using low-cost methods.”
Debate Over War
Please consider A War by Any Other Name
President Trump’s decision not to seek congressional authorization for the use of military force against Iran has unleashed a chorus of circumlocution from Republican lawmakers.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) argues that only committing ground troops to the fight would qualify as war “in the constitutional sense.” Mr. Hawley is an intelligent man who completed a bachelor’s degree from Stanford, a law degree from Yale and a clerkship with Chief Justice John Roberts. If he has a credible legal basis for the claim that the military campaign the U.S. is waging against Iran doesn’t qualify as a war under the Constitution, he should lay it out.
Rep. Randy Fine (R., Fla.) makes a different argument. “It’s not a war,” he says. “The way you are officially at war is Congress declares war, and we haven’t declared war.” This is the logical equivalent of insisting that the sky isn’t blue until we say it is—and about as persuasive.
House Speaker Mike Johnson could win an award for military euphemisms. “We’re not at war right now,” he contended last Wednesday. “We’re four days into a very specific, clear mission—an operation.” In fairness, Mr. Johnson made this statement before the president announced that the aim was Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” which is what the Allies demanded of the Axis powers during World War II. A question for the speaker: Does the president’s new goal move the needle from “operation” to “war”? Or will our conflict with Iran remain, for you and your colleagues, a war by any other name?
These evasions seem motivated by Republicans’ unwillingness to acknowledge that Mr. Trump has plunged the U.S. into a war that Congress neither declared nor authorized.
It’s easy to dismiss my concerns as an obsession with constitutional niceties that modern conditions have rendered obsolete. But congressional consideration of the case for war is a precondition for a sustainable foreign policy. With public debate, the people have a chance to understand the pros and cons of putting American interests and lives at risk. Even if the public loses the argument, at least Americans can see that elected officials have represented their views. The alternative—ignoring public sentiment—widens the gulf between the people and their government.
When presidents make mistakes in the use of military force, the absence of congressional buy-in leaves them with nowhere to turn. When wars go badly, the president’s party pays a price, even when its elected representatives don’t participate in the decision to go to war. Because congressional Republicans’ fate is so intertwined with Mr. Trump’s, they may eventually rue their decision to block a public debate on Iran.
No Intelligence
Is 70 Percent Good Enough?
The answer is no.
Moreover, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait won’t be at close to 100 percent either.
Foreign Presidents Need Permission from Trump to Be President
Complete or the Beginning?
Q: You said the war is ‘very complete.’ But your defense secretary says ‘this is just the beginning.’ So which is it? TRUMP: You could say both
Trump Says ‘I think the war is very complete, pretty much’
Please note Trump Says ‘I think the war is very complete, pretty much’
Great. When do we send in the troops? Or is the surrender idea over?
A Refresher Course on Soon
Yesterday, a reporter asked Trump if the war with Iran would be over this week. Mr. Trump said, “No. soon, very soon.”
Today, the Wall Street Journal reports Hegseth Says ‘We Will Not Relent’ Until Iran Is Defeated
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran is “badly losing” in the war and that Tuesday’s airstrikes would be the most intense yet of the campaign against the regime.
“We will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated, but we do so on our time line and at our choosing,” Hegseth told a joint press conference with Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
Earlier, Iran’s foreign minister said negotiations with the U.S. were off the table, after President Trump said the war will be over “very soon” but that the U.S. military campaign still has further to go.
The Meaning of Soon
- AI: Soon generally refers to a short, subjective period in the near future, typically ranging from a few minutes to several days, depending on the context.
- Alice: Within a week.
- Trump: More than a week.
- Hegseth: “Our time line and at our choosing”
The Meaning of Complete
Q: What does very complete mean?
A: Just the beginning
Who’s to Blame?
March 9, 2026: Trump Points the Finger at Steve, Pete, Marco, and Jared for the War
It was inevitable Trump would blame others. And how soon is very soon?
What’s Clear and What Isn’t?
- Clear: Trump blames Steve Miller, Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, and Pete Hegseth.
- Clear: Very complete means just the beginning
- Not Clear: The meaning of very soon.
- Not Clear: Whether Trump backs down or sends in ground troops.
- Not Clear: The total cost
I hope that clears things up.
I expect to provide still more clarity as soon as Trump changes definitions. That’s likely to be very soon.
Meanwhile, please note that normal is just around the corner IF the war ends today.
IF the war ended today, and PEACE broke out in the entire Persian Gulf region for the rest of this year, it would take a long time to restore production and shipping to normal levels. Of course, a lot depends on how much damage was done to infrastructure, and how long it would take to repair it all.
Some ballpark figures would be:
Oil Shipping: restore to 30% of normal in one week, 80% in 3 weeks, 100% in 5 weeks
Gulf Oil storage: currently almost full, and some will be used to restore shipping, while production ramps up again
Oil Production: Restore to 80% in one month, 100% in 3 months
LNG Production and shipping: 20% of global LNG will remain offline for 2-4 months
While we wait for the resumption of production and shipping, the world will have to rely on available storage and strategic reserves, which will be run down significantly in the meantime.
And this is the best case scenario.
The war could continue for several more weeks, and the strait can remain closed. And the global economy will be severely damaged if it does.
The question remains; how long before the war ends, and the strait opens? How much more damage will be done?
As usual, there is nothing any of us can do about this situation, other than take advantage of the opportunities it provides. Volatility provides opportunity.
NYMEX Futures Low Today: $81.75 May $80.62 June $78.21 July $75.91
You could have bought a barrel of oil today for these prices? Did anyone do that?
Up until a week ago, there was a week’s worth of oil sitting in ships outside ports waiting to be unloaded. Any smart marginal producer sold oil on the futures Sunday night and is ramping up production. China has been importing a million extra barrels of oil a day for a year to shore up their reserves. The reason Saudi and other countries stopped pumping oil and gas is the oil producing countries ran out of storage. Welcome just in time capacity. The future(s) is $75 oil and if Russia comes to their senses and does not want to lose a million more men, the price will be $60 or lower. The countries that had communist, dictators and religious ideologues who cannot run oil and are only good at running a country into the ground, have a chance to bring this low-cost producer to their former glory. The future of oil is closer to $40 than $100 by next year and I put my money where my mouth is.
“Religious ideologues”?
Like BiBi and his pet dicktaster Trump?
“Any smart marginal producer sold oil on the futures Sunday night and is ramping up production.”
Yes. Many North American oil and gas producers are hedging future production, taking advantage of the higher prices.
No. No one is ramping up production based on a situation that is likely to be short term. All they are currently doing is completing the DUCs that they already have in place. Because this can be accomplished in 4-8 weeks. But they are not drilling new wells in response, because it takes 3-6 months to expand capacity in a meaningful way.
“The future of oil is closer to $40 than $100 by next year and I put my money where my mouth is.”
If you think that, then why are you saying it is smart for oil producers to ramp up production?
Could you be more specific on the date; do you mean by January 1, 2027? I might be willing to take that bet. If that is what you are implying.
Challenge accepted – we will call it the strong – Papa challenge.
I will post once a week the closing price of SCO and UCO.
strong for SCO $10.14 3-10-26 close.
Papa for UCO. $34.18 3-10-26 close.
Happy Trading!!!
I missed Trump’s “Iran war will be over pretty quickly but we haven’t won enough” on 7 March. Must not be tired of all that winning.
If Trump thinks the Strait is so safe, he should get on one of his fancy yachts and take it through.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-navy-tells-shipping-industry-hormuz-escorts-not-possible-now-2026-03-10/
Maybe “soon”.
Taco Tuesday
& now
Waffle Wednesday
“This is the logical equivalent of insisting that the sky isn’t blue until we say it is—and about as persuasive.”
It may interest Rep. Fine to learn that the sky isn’t blue, it’s clear (transparent). Water is too. Committing acts of war equate to engaging in warfare.
#Rayleigh_scattering
There’s precedent:
“I did not have sex with that woman”
It was only a blowie
Bernhard over at Moon of Alabama has a great tid-bit from 1988:
It is… his destiny.
The Herald of the Stupocalypse has risen!
Israel & USA assassinated the father & family members of the Supreme Leader. He’s not Jesus doubtful going to turn his cheek. Doesn’t normally generate warm fuzzy feelings towards enemies.
There are mistakes in war but seem to be quite a few oddities (False Flags). Who vetted the girl’s school & former hospital as a military target? A target which received a double strike.
In other news the DOJ is releasing all the Epstein files, photographs & videos….
Epstein who?
Don’t put a girl school in a military compound with explosives. The other four building in the compound got direct hits from missles and were flattened. The school was still intact and most likely damaged by munitions stored close by. Last time, I read the next time most people will see Jesus he will be riding a white horse with robes dipped in blood proceeded by the seven trumpets and seven last plagues. Not coming with warm fuzzy feeling but judgement.
You are a liar…
All of us have seen the strikes.
😉
Not ending today
…LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) – The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now, according to sources familiar with the matter….
So, the USN will only escort ships when they won’t need escort. Isn’t it wonderful to have most expensive navy in the planet?
Economist:
“ Short of ending the war, then, the best-case scenario of realistic reserve releases, more Russian crude and a bit more American shale gives just over 4m b/d. This is less than a third of the Hormuz shortfall and would take weeks to materialise. In the meantime, more Gulf producers will run out of space to store their stranded oil. Iraq and Kuwait are already shutting in wells; the UAE and Saudi Arabia are reportedly trimming production. Within three weeks combined cuts could approach 10m b/d—roughly 10% of global output. Even after Hormuz reopens, restoring idled oilfields to full capacity would take between two and six weeks, says a former engineer on a Kuwaiti project. Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, warns that Brent could hit $150 a barrel if disruptions persist.
These mines will also need to be collected.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz
What I don’t understand is, why is our military allowing this?
Are the Iranians deaf? Didn’t they hear Donald Trump say he wanted them removed IMMEDIATELY?!
They know the next demand would be that they pray in the direction of Maralago instead of Mecca.
They’re fairly serious about their prayers, so that’s a no go. They’re just trying to get ahead of the demand.
While there is a lot of good information in this post, I do not see much difference what if the war ended today and what about the war ending today.
If Iran doesn’t agree that the war isn’t over, the war isn’t over.
The strait of Hormuz have mountain ranges that rise from sea level to 3000-4000 feet – above – Mile-High Denver with a network of deep tunnels and launch sites. Cruise missiles (Ra’ad, Noor, Abu Mahdi) and supersonic anti-ship missiles from a plethora of sites and with mobile rocket launchers can easily destroy moving targets in the Strait.
Likely, US ground operations have been drawn up with an objective to take these tough-to-get-at positions. Gaza was a flat area of about 5 miles wide by 25 miles long and was leveled by the IDF over a period of 24 months with Hamas still not yielding their weapons. The firing area of the mountains would be an area 6-12 times Gaza.
Let the Israeli’s assault the mountains.
OIF Vet.
Trump and his buddies can actually made tons of money:
It’s a pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation.
LOL. The Shia cronies
That’s what I tell my wife when she asks when I will clean up the basement.
The scope is anything pre-mortem — if circumstances align.
It’s clear that our dumkoff has just learned about mines in the Strait
pressure point found…
There are reports from CNN/CBS that the regime has been placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump says the US has no reports confirming this, but that if mines have been placed, they need to be removed.
If they are removed, he says it would be a “giant step in the right direction.”
the 4 minesweepers in the gulf were removed 2 months ago!!
Navy’s Avenger Class Mine Hunters Have Left The Middle East For Good
https://www.twz.com/sea/navys-avenger-class-mine-hunters-have-left-the-middle-east-for-good
CNBC: HSBC moves to ‘max’ overweight stocks, saying peak fear about Iran oil spike has passed
How long before the market does a Wile E. Coyote and realizes it just ran off a cliff and there is no ground underneath? The market’s refusal to face reality is incredible.
I just realized I’ve probably misspelled “Strait” on numerous occasions here. I am deeply sorry.
In German and Dutch, they use the same word for both Street and Strait
But Straight/Strait seems to have a different etymology (Stretch), although ultimately perhaps reconnecting with a common *IND root.
That’s a pretty crooked thing to do
Forget Humpty Dumpty, this is the Alice in Wonderland presidency.
“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!”
Charles Dodgson co-opted the character, so either way we’re ‘Through the Looking Glass’
https://aliceinwonderland.fandom.com/wiki/Humpty_Dumpty
All will be fine when the Straight of Vermouth opens. Open the Straight, we need more Vermouth.
Press conference now has many more / all shills and stooges than typical.
Tweet from Barron Trump:
JUST IN: President Trump is telling oil tanker captains to stop hesitating and sail straight through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran’s threats.
“These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some GUTS. There’s nothing to be afraid of. Iran has no Navy. We sunk all their ships.”
The regime spent months trying to convince the world it could choke off global shipping and hold the Middle East hostage with threats. Trump is making it clear that intimidation game is over.
No fear. No retreat. No allowing Iran to control one of the most critical waterways on the planet.
The message from Trump is simple. Sail through. The United States has already handled the rest.
Bone Spurs Jr needs to STFU or pick up a rifle.
Breaking News: Iran planning to mine Straits of Hormuz.
Oil back above $90, trading at $91.27. Now US is asking Israel to stop bombing oil infrastructure.
Israel’s going to do whatever it wants – including bombing GCC countries – and the US won’t do anything about it. The best outcome for the US would be if Iran would “decapitate” Israel.
Worthy of an upvote!
Hopefully they asked nicely.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz
If it isn’t war then it’s terrorism, no different than Saudis flying jets into buildings except in this case, bombs were dropped on children in school.
It can be both.
Hawley, Fine and Johnson should stop calling the the conflict in Ukraine a A “war.” It is not a war. It is a “Special Military Operation.”
= twit was deleted
“President Trump is maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran. The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced.
=====
Don’t get your hopes up, this is the biggest conman extending the play, day by day
Sen. Blumenthal after getting briefed on Iran today:
“We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here.”
In order for shipping to resume, the insurers will need assurances from all parties that attacks on vessels will not occur. Who to negotiate with in Iran? What assurances are there that the US will not attack the key people in the midst of negotiations? Who in Iran will commit to that? Is there enough top down structure or has control of forces in Iran devolved to separate and independent command structures in a “dead hand” mode? Who in the US has credibility in this matter?
Meanwhile, forces in Iraq attacked US bases.
“We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here.”
Which those creeps still won’t be calling an actual war.
Blumenthal is a highly decorated military figure.
We may not know who’s in charge of Iran, but Iran knows who’s in charge of Iran – and they’re not going to be “negotiating” with the US because when it come to the US, “negotiating” is a euphemism for putting a noose around your own neck. American “negotiations” are just a ploy to allow a sneak attack.
You’re on a roll today. Thanks for not mention P.A. You credit us with abilities we don’t have, or the intelligence.
= oil
USA runs $2.6 trln deficit !
just 2 days ago admin suggested to intervene in OIL MARKETS SELLING FUTURES
dont be so gullible.
as long as Hormuz is under fire, oil to THE MOON!!
ME war premium will stay for ever!!
spread russian oil/ brent will disappear. and RUSSIAN OIL WILL BE MORE expensive in short period of time.
no need to explain!
Quite a few countries possess ability to insert a team into Iran to initiate False Flag drone attacks originating from Iran on maritime shipping in Strait of Hormuz.
Oil is below $78 per barrel right now.
paper market!
USA runs $2.6 trln deficit !
just 2 days ago admin suggested to intervene in OIL MARKETS SELLING FUTURES
dont be so gullible.
In the world of cheap drones, we are morons for continuing to be dependent on huge, slow, fragile ships to deliver the oil that makes our food and energy. Iran just showed a lot of angry people how to break the global economy on a budget.
The Plain will be a lot less fruited without that NH3 and tractor fuel.
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