The IEA will release 400 million barrels of oil hoping to tame crude prices. So what? 
IEA Will Launch Largest-Ever Oil Release From Global Strategic Reserves
The Wall Street Journal reports IEA Will Launch Largest-Ever Oil Release From Global Strategic Reserves
The International Energy Agency said its member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks, the largest reserves distribution in history, in a bid to bring down crude prices that have soared during the war with Iran.
The release of oil would more than double the agency’s biggest prior release, when IEA member countries in 2022 put 182 million barrels on the market after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, officials said.
The IEA proposal is intended to counter the massive disruption caused by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to global markets. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply moves through the strait, and the threat of attacks—and actual attacks—on tankers by Iran has brought shipments to a near standstill.
“IEA countries have unanimously decided to launch the largest ever release of emergency oil stocks in our agency’s history,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets.”
French President Emmanuel Macron was hosting a videoconference call with leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies on Wednesday to discuss ways to mitigate the energy situation, France’s Élysée Palace said.
In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the country would unilaterally release oil from its strategic reserves as soon as March 16. She said it would release 15 days’ worth of oil from private-sector stockpiles and another 30 days’ worth from government reserves. German Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche said that Germany would participate out of solidarity with other members.
French Nonsense
“We must send a very clear message,” said French Finance Minister Roland Lescure. “If we can’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz right away, we will replace it with other oil.”
So What?
Since the Journal failed to comment on the meaninglessness of this news, I will.
Global oil production is approximately 100–103 million barrels per day (mb/d) as of 2024–2025, covering crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and other liquids. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are the top producers, contributing to over 70% of the total, with 2025 projections exceeding 106 mb/d.
The Math: The IEA is going to release 4 day’s worth of oil.
Is the war going to be over in 4 days? Here’s a better question.
What If the Iran War Ended Today?
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, has said it will be able to export about 70% of its normal crude shipments within days as it rushes to restore sales cut off by the US-Iran war to global markets.
Is 70 Percent Good Enough?
The answer is no.
Moreover, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait won’t be at close to 100 percent either.
Iran Exporting More Oil than Before
Conflict Widens
17 US Sites Hit
Goldman Sachs Tracks the Statement Changes
A Small Price to Pay?
Trump says the war is a small price to pay. That statement will haunt him.
And they tried to hide this damage.
For further discussion, please consider What If the Iran War Ended Today? How Long Before Oil Is Normal?
That’s a big IF that isn’t happening, but what IF?
So, the IEA is going to release 400 million barrels of oil. That’s a supply of 4 days.
So what?
CPI Rises the Expected 0.3 Percent in February, Details Very Unsettling
In case you missed it, please see CPI Rises the Expected 0.3 Percent in February, Details Very Unsettling
I expect a rise in year-over-year CPI each month for the next three months. And that’s excluding energy and gasoline which hugely rates to add additional misery.
Beneath the headline numbers, this data is a serious mess. The market expects the cut in June is now off the table. That’s been my expectation for quite some time.
Talk of tame inflation is nonsense, especially the Fed’s preferred measure. More reports on this coming up.
What are the odds Trumpstien decides to stop the Iranian tankers to China?
I bet if we slaughter the goose we can get all of the golden eggs all at once.
So, the entire world gets to pay for another Israeli attack on one of its neighbors?
Time to prevent dual citizens becoming politicians or officials and time to make AIPAC respect the Foreign Agents Act.
And those who receive money from AIPAC. I know, dreaming is not forbidden in the US, unlike in the UK.
Shows perfectly the politicians’ ability to do math or to foresee the consequences of their actions.
Trumpstien is a short bus politician, at that.
RELEASE THE KRAKEN……haha
I’m surprised by your analysis on this, Mish. “4 days worth of oil”? Since when did total global oil production stop?
Economic analysis is done at the margin. As you said, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia produce 70% of the total. Production within the first two countries has not been affected at all. And Saudi Arabia is at 70% of its own production rate.
The handful of smaller oil contributing countries using the Strait are definitely affected for now. But their combined production decline has shut down about 17M barrels a day. So 400M can go a long way (2.5 weeks) to offset their production declines for now.
I think this ‘war’ is a big mistake. And releasing world oil reserves is an emergency field dressing in this case.
But “4 days worth” is a misleading prediction of economic forecasting.
Jim McHale already pointed out in an earlier comment that the 4 days of total supply means about 20 days of Gulf oil.
And then, what, no more reserves?
And then America will be Great again. Huzzah!
YES. I have commented earlier about this “20% of global consumption”.
Only tradeable oil matters; not oil produced and consumed on Mars.
Upward of ⅓ of all traded oil (74M barrels of about 105M barrels of per day global production) passes Hormuz (about 24M barrels of crude and other liquids). If there is 7M of pipeline capacity in Saudi and UAE, then 17M remains blocked.
To balance supply/demand if current conditions persist, think of price targets in the range of 230% to 400% increases of the price beforehand ($60), so $200-300.
Oil (in current dollars, adjusted for official inflation, but without more than a partial blockade) reached/peaked:
Gas lines traumatized us as a county back then. It was pathetic.
Regular gas prices at my favorite gas station was $2.96 the day Trump was elected. Now they are $3.69 as of this morning. Thanks to Trumps being stupid enough to support Israel and invade Iran my regular gas costs 0.73 more. That is up over 22%
I am contemplating going short on oil futures again.
The alleged shortage appears to be more of a manipulation than a real shortage. Global supplies are ample but logistically challenged. Some VLCC shipments to China & India are flowing through Hormuz and the opening of Russian supply and all the SPR’s are being opened?
The US is a net oil and gas exporter. Its only critical import supply threat is Canada and despite Trumps aggression against Canada, I do not expect any disruption.
Prices increases in the US are only a function of futures traders bidding up crude.
There will be a glut by the election IMO. Inflation will be heading up in the meantime!
Don’t do it man. You’re ascribing rational intent to insane people,
This was a war of choice perpetrated by Trump and Israel.
As all of us know the war on Iraq was based on lies from the Bush administration that were promoted by Fox News.
Now we have convicted Felon Trump lying about Iran and Fox is again promoting the War.
Why does anyone listen to Fox and why does anyone advertise on a network that has been caught in sooooooo many lies?
I would suspect that the companies that advertise on these networks share a parent company with them.
I don’t see this as a bad thing.
The West is doing everything it can to keep a dense fog of war going and “inform” the people in the West with propaganda on how well the war is going and how everything is under control.
CNN: “The US destroyed the Iranian mining boats” (which leads gullible readers to believe the US is doing something about Hormuz and is in control of the situation).
People in Middle Eastern countries are being arrested for filming drone or missile damage because they are fueling ‘misinformation’. Israel is enforcing a total blackout of information about Iranian strikes in their country.
It’s ironic that Iran is the only country in the Middle East allowing foreign media in their country to report what’s going on.
Geez, you guys sound like al jazeera.
Iran has a very long history of blacking out the internet (and murdering/torturing reporters). If it’s not blocked now, it’s because they’ve lost control.
You would be much better informed if you read/watch Al Jazeera than any US owned ‘news channel’.
Al Jazeera and US news have never been more in agreement.
I dont listen to either as both are propoganda.
For whatever reason, that is the only source of reliable information out of the region now. If the Iranians aren’t controlling it, nobody is.
The only thing that scares the Pedophile Satanist in the White House is the release of the file that Epstein had on him.
Evidence please.
Being withheld by a group of far right war mongering pervert protectors…
Evidence please. If you or Augustine could provide evidence, you may be able to sway those on the margins. Give it a try. Otherwise, your view means little more than an unsupported opinion.
The evidence was redacted. BTW, there’s no one on the margins. Only members of the Pedophile Protection Team pretend that there is.
Here’s a bit they tried to hide but messed up.
https://www.scribd.com/document/326057168/Jane-Doe-Declaration-as-Filed
There’s plenty more. Google is your friend, but if you can’t work it, I’ll be happy to provide more.
UNredact!
This absolutely reeks of desperation. Will be interesting to see where traders place their bets—unquestionably some will have inside information.
His ability to swing the market with lies is getting weaker every time he does it.
BREAKING: A Chinese AI startup called MizarVision is publishing high-resolution satellite imagery of every US military base, every carrier strike group, every F-22 deployment, every THAAD battery, and every Patriot missile position in the Middle East. Labelled. Geolocated. AI-annotated. Updated in near-realtime. Shared by PLA-linked accounts and Chinese state media to an audience of billions. https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2030948398384439313
Believing in their own propaganda, the U.S. neglect to consider that Iran is a near peer in conventional war. With help, Iran can hit back.
A century not winning any war they got involved, except Grenada, even against who could not shoot back, the U.S. military are a criminal disgrace.
If it comes down to boots on the ground, we’re going to be fielding an obese generation that can barely read and knows only comfort, against a generation that has grown up in austerity from sanctions, and has lost friends and relatives from prior attacks over the last 50 years.
One side will be led by a middle aged man that appears to be quite intelligent, and the other will be led by an incontinent, senile, child raping narcissist.
If we put our people in Iraq, they will be slaughtered, and we will gain nothing from it.
The Usonian boots only hit the ground with air support. Where are the airplanes, for their bases were blown up and the carriers scuttled far away? Any Usonian boots will be killed in the name of each 10 year old little girl.
During the 12 day war last year, Iran had plenty of opportunities to get targeting data on sites especially those of neighboring countries.
Would have been smarter to hang onto some of that. We’re in this for the long haul. All this does is enable Ashleigh and Braeden to continue making their twice daily Costco runs.
It will be missed when we’re low on fertilizer.
Thanks Obama!
Low on fertilizer? My pantry is well stocked for years with canned goods, rice, beans, and MREs for when things really go bad.
Ugh…..well you won’t be living very long eating that shite.
Better add some laxatives to the pantry for that diet.
The world has no choice but to release reserves as a way to prevent economic collapse.
The same goes for sending ships to escort tankers and freighters through the strait.
The global economy cannot stand this situation for more than two weeks and has to do with”something” to mitigate the damage.
Trump had more than a year to refill the US SPR and did nothing. Now he needs the rest of the world to back him up by releasing their SPRs. The stupidity is astounding.
It’s sad – those escort ships are likely doomed.
If you’ve ever played a zombie video game, you know you just stand in the doorway and hit them with everything you got. More than 1 can’t get through the doorway so you just keep shooting, moltov cocktailing them until there are no more.
U.S. Navy Tells Shipping Industry Hormuz Escorts Not Possible For Now
The U.S. Navy says the risk of attacks is too high for now, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Sorry this war against yet another 3rd world country is too risky for our $ one trillion military.
They would be doomed so just like the Bridgeton tanker, the US navy will make the tankers go first. Why? Because the much larger double hulled tankers can absorb a mine hit better than navy ships. Somewhat effective but the optics are bad.
The obvious choice is to end the war. I think the majority of the world would agree the war should end immediately. Unfortunately, only Trump and Netanyahu can make that decision.
Though I doubt that. After being hit year after year, Iran would stop before destroying the Satanist state of Israel.
Yes. But the rest of the world will put pressure on them to end it, or at least pause it, to try to get shipping going again. However, even if they succeed, will Iran go along? Or will they do their best to crush the global econom?
Iran seems to be letting the China-bound ships through.
I foresee a new “bloc” forming, with poorer countries moving under China’s wing, for energy security.
China cannot provide energy security for other countries. They have been working hard for two decades to become the world’s first electro-state so that they can improve their own energy security.
They are net importers of all fossil fuels.
They are net exporters of renewable energy materials.
Maybe if they stop exporting renewable energy materials, they won’t need so much oil.
Oil is $8.50 from $100 as I type this comment and that’s AFTER the announcement of the release of oil from SPR. 400 in a deficit of 10m is a drop in the ocean.
Get ready for the market crash.
Got PUTS?
Speaking of exit strategies… Avoid places that cannot produce both food and energy. Look at all the wealthy expats in Dubai. Skip small countries that cannot provide for themselves.
Yes, that is 4 days. If we are to restore to full production and Hormuz accounts for 20% then the ‘4 days’ fills that gap. Call it 20 days supply. But if they stretch that out a bit then prices are elevated for far longer.
I doubt the release will have to go for the full 20 days. Iran is rapidly running out of weapons and their ability to threaten the straight is dwindling fast.
Add to this that other countries are coming in to safeguard the straight; we’re probably only looking at 10 more days of highly elevated oil prices.
However oil prices will have a premium on them until some kind of democracy is restored to Iran. And that will take a long time.
The Bond market is calling your bluff.
https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/
Exactly where did you get your hands on an inventory of Iran’s remaining weapons?
Some talking head told you.
You know nothing.
It sure looks like Iran is out of weapons, must be someone else launching bombs and missiles at Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsqcIymUIwk
The same people who have been saying that Russia has been running out of shells and missiles for the last four years.
Watched the vid. Ya, Iran is done. I think 10 days is the long estimate.
Shoot, we won already, now lets go invade Cuba!
🍿
exactly. I mean, according to Trump the Iranians apparently have Tomahawk missiles that no one knew they had.
I found a slightly used but well cared for Tomahawk missile at the Goodwill a few days ago. Anyone can buy one these days.
I got a Tomahawk free with the 15 MyPillows I bought off a Fox News commercial last week!
And where did you get your source of information?
Some talking head told you?
Anyways, time knows the truth.
I didn’t make a claim with no way to back it up.
So produce a source or shut your lying trumphole.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxzzqe82d2o
btw I originally had a half dozen links but seems I’m only allowed to post one.
Suffice it to say, there’s lots of places reporting this.
So how damaged is the Haifa port?
We’re not seeing anything in the press.
Nor will you…now be a good goy and go die for Israel. lolz….jk
No, my job is to vote against any AIPAC candidates in next wk’s election.
That’s because the beacon of liberal democracy in the Middle East is blacking out the press and punishing infractors severely. Count on the western press to oblige with propaganda.
Haifa port ships a lot of oil?
Iran had democracy until the US overthrew it and installed the SHAH. Who do you think you are kidding with the notion of democracy happening now? Iran already selected a more fundamentalist son of the leader Trump and BiBi assassinated.
Like it or not, Israel is the terrorist nation in the region after attacking its neighbors constantly since Balfour…
As much as I love my country, I fear its government under the Trump dictatorship.
Umm, you do realize this all started because the Iranian people began revolting against the government right?
Is all of this really worth the cost and not only in currencies?
It is for Trumpstien, because he’s in a world of hurt if the DOJ becomes functional again.
Nah, he’ll use the Biden defense (old doddering man unable to understand charges brought against him) which in 3 more years will likely not have to be faked.
To trump and bibi it is. Both have legal issues when peace breaks out. Bibi is corruption if i recall and trump has the Epstein files.
Plus trump prob has support of every wealthily pedo because if he falls they will also.