Trump says he doesn’t fear political fallout from a prolonged war with Iran.
Threat to Blow Up Oman
Trump Has No Fear
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says He Doesn’t Fear Political Fallout From Prolonged War With Iran
President Trump said Iran was miscalculating if it thought he would soften his position to avoid a prolonged standoff with Tehran.
“They thought they were going to outwait me,” Trump said Wednesday at the start of a cabinet meeting at the White House. “He’s got the midterms [they thought]. I don’t care about the midterms. Look, what happened last night.”
Trump was referring to Ken Paxton’s victory in the Republican-primary runoff in Texas in which he defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn with the president’s endorsement.
He responded to criticism that he had steered the U.S. into an open-ended conflict in the Middle East, the sort of war that as candidate he had vowed to avoid. “I don’t call it a war,” Trump said. “I call it a conflict.”
Trump signaled that he was prepared to keep negotiating but didn’t exclude further military action. He said Iran’s economy was operating on “fumes” with “inflation at 250%.”
Asked later if he would accept a deal under which Iran and Oman would share control over the strait—through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes—Trump said the waterway must be open to everyone, although he said the U.S. will “watch over it.” He said that “Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up.” He later said of the Omanis, “Understand that. They’ll be fine.”
What happened last night is Trump won a battle but will lose the war. Winning a primary is one thing and an election is another.
Trump has previously cost Republicans at least four Senate seats and rates to lose 3-5 more this election.
Demands, Demands
While the president struck an optimistic note during the cabinet meeting, saying that the Iranians were beginning to come around at the negotiation table, he again held out the possibility of additional military strikes. “If they won’t,” he said, pointing to Hegseth, “the man on my left is going to finish them off.”
But he also alluded to Iran’s demands that it receive billions of dollars in frozen funds if a new agreement is reached.
“We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money,” Trump said. “When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.”
Trump again appeared to make an Iran deal contingent on other Gulf states joining an expanded Abraham Accords, establishing or expanding diplomatic relations with Israel. Such an arrangement would be “historic if they do it,” he said before adding that “I think they owe that to us to be honest.” He first linked an agreement and the Abraham Accords in a social-media post last weekend
When the president turned to Steve Witkoff, his special envoy, for an update on that effort, Witkoff replied, “we are definitely pushing.”
“I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign,” Trump said.
Amusing Position
That last sentence is more than a bit amusing. Read it again.
“I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign,” Trump said.
If Iran doesn’t sign , there cannot be a deal. But that’s not the way Trump thinks.
He states demands, changes them daily, then calls it a deal.
On Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile
Today, Trump rejected the idea of allowing Iran to turn over its stockpile of enriched uranium to either China or Russia.
“No,” he replied when asked about the possibility. “That would not make me comfortable.”
Two days ago, Trump was fine with the idea. He even promoted it on Truth Social.
Tomorrow? Who knows?
Memorandum of Understanding
Per Iran:
- Strait of Hormuz commercial transit restored to pre-war levels within 30 days under “permanent Iranian authority”
- For this restoration, the management of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be handled in cooperation with Oman through tolls named “environmental protection fees,” with US military vessels excluded
- US Navy fully lifts the Strait of Hormuz blockade
- US military forces withdraw from Iran’s vicinity
- IRGC Navy adds “hostile countries” vessels remain strictly prohibited from transit even after signing
- Final deal within 60 days approved as binding UN Security Council resolution
The MFA said on Monday “no Iranian nuclear commitments and uranium handover exist or will exist in any draft agreement,” making the deal structurally impossible.
Abrams Accord
A Bad Idea
Andrew Day – American Conservative
The “deal or war” binary is a false choice, and a good thing too, considering how elusive a deal has proven to be. Iran does not pose a threat to the American homeland, and America already has enough problems to worry about on the domestic front. Mr. President, it’s time to come home.
I agree with Andrew Day in theory. But politically speaking, Trump has already pissed off one wing of MAGA, the wing that wants no more wars.
The other wing wants more wars and would be pissed off by a weak deal.
This is why Trump keeps vacillating daily, if not hourly.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States will not sign the Abrams Accord.
That is already clear. And that’s the point.
That new requirement came from Senator Lindsey Graham who is itching for more war.
But .. But .. But
Is a Deal Near?
I am following the same thing. Oil acts as if there is a deal.
If there is a deal, it will be on Iran’s terms, not Trump’s mandates.
Meanwhile, As Talks Bog Down, Trump Cites Great Progress that Iran Denies
Talks hang on the same issues, nuclear stockpiles, sanctions, and mistrust.
No Winning Options
As I have commented for months, Trump has no winning options. Iran can wait Trump out.
Iran knows Trump lacks resolve.
Notably, the longer this has gone on, the more demands Iran has made. Before the war, Trump had a deal on the table from Iran involving uranium. Trump turned that down.
That once potential deal will never surface again.
I am confident Iran can wait out Trump. It’s not even close. However, the market seems to think a deal is at hand. Let’s see.
“I don’t call it a war,” Trump said. “I call it a conflict.” Why not call it by it’s real name: “A SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION.”
mish spinning out again.
.
More cringey low-effort posts from our resident 13-year old edgelord.
hey phil! how’s the pegging coming along? Are you still really into that? seems really nasty, but hey, different strokes and all. Good luck with that.
With Iran now having the upper hand I do not see them giving up nuclear. As you say, we have only lost the ability to influence that. Sadly it seems clear, as N Korea (where is Trump and the media on their nuclear growth?) shows the Dictator with nuclear weapons is the 21 Century MO thorn in the flesh dejour. Tough, if not impossible to put that genie back in the bottle.
News is a 60 day agreement has been reached, but both sides still need approval from their President, and Supreme Leader (or who he’s assigned to do such work).
Oil drops on this and it doesn’t get signed I’m gonna call it as manipulation. Someone here said it’s obvious traders are trading the headline news, but in my opinion that’s extremely stupid.
Trading, IMO, requires forward thinking by connecting dots if not one might be placed out of selling – if just trading on the headlines – when the headlines prove to be wrong. One can literally lose everything with such a strategy.
Thus I’m more inclined to belive AI is trading headlines vs humans, which is just as stupid as noted above.
“News is a 60 day agreement has been reached”
Source?
Axios….
Axios, the Israeli propaganda outlet.
Hilarious to claim that an agreement has been reached as soon as both sides agree to it!
Stock traders have worked hard over decades to get people to believe that they are super bright “investors” building the financial future of America. That’s not true. They’re nothing more than gamblers risking your money on the next hand of the day out of FOMO.
Trump Threatens to Blow Up Defenseless Oman, Since Iran Shot Back
There, fixed it for you.
Of course. There is no deal that Iran can make that will satisfy Israel.
Since Israel has The Files, Trump must make Israel happy. Or else.
The funny thing is that the QAnon conspiracy theory was directionally correct in that the world is run by a cabal of perverts. But, contra QAnon, Trump is part of that cabal, and the military is on their side. Also Comet Pizza doesn’t play a role at all.
Israel is now bombing Beirut again. I’m sure the main reason is to piss off Iran and keep a deal from happening.
Remember when Trump said he told Israel during the initial Iran war negotiations they had to stop bombing Lebanon, and MAGA claimed that showed that Trump was in charge?
It’s interesting how when conservatives say silly things, they get laughed at a lot, by the media people most of all; but when radicals say silly things, they are greeted with respectful attention. Maybe it’s because we realize that they are not really grown up.
Aww, you sound like a poor widdle snowflake who needs a safe space.
Lol you’re so close, so close 😂
I guess it’s a mystery! So unfair!
Is the straight international waters? I doubt that it is under normal rules.
I was reading an article that stated that in the early 1600’s “the English East India Company” helped Iran “take back control of the Straight of Hormuz from the Portuguese”.
This was in exchange for that company acquiring the right to trade in Persia (Iran).
It would be interesting to see what the history of the straight actually is as Iran’s borders and leaders have changed so many times since the 1600’s. Russia, France, England, Afghanistan, Turkey, Iraq, etc. have all had their hands in Iran since then. Not to mention ongoing internal struggles from both political and religious leaders. All of these factors have shifted the Iranian borders many times.
Of course the right answer means nothing to Trump.
International waters typically begin 200 nautical miles from the coastline, but that is generally for economic purposes like fishing. Countries have full sovereignty over waters extending 12 miles of from their coast. However, foreign vessels have “innocent passage” rights, where the coastal state’s laws apply but you can’t be arbitrarily stopped if you’re just passing through. But what is “innocent” in the Hormuz Strait today? Certainly not naval vessels or spy ships and drones. Is it “arbitrary” if Iran has laws to check ships for permitting and environmental reasons? The US Coast Guard does that kind of thing routinely in the 12-mile zone.
Blow up Oman? The craziness continues. No Nobel Peace Award for that war I guess. And with the US running out of rare earths for more weapons….which China now controls…I’d say Trump’s goose is cooked. Maybe the Epstein Caper award is coming soon…
What will it cost?
Trump has desecrated the White House with gold, put his name on everything he can, is building an incredibly expensive “ball room” (future office building) and now wants a $250 bill with his picture on it.
I wonder how much it will cost to change all this crap back to what it was BT, (before trump).
You misspelled “Baal Room”.
Short for Bollocks Room
Who are the people voting for Trump’s choices? Are there really that many MAGA nuts qualified and able to vote?
Maybe there should be an IQ test to be allowed to vote.
Tempting, but smart people are just as self-serving as stupid people. They’re just more glib.
Approximately 50% of the white population has an IQ under 100.
By definition, half of the total population has an IQ below 100. That is, half the people are closer to clinical idiocy than to a sharp mind.
Think about how stupid the average human is. By definition, half of the population is even stupider than that.
Well said!
Look no further than the GOP primaries in Texas for the senate.
US have broken the 60 day ceasefire twice now. WTF is wrong with them, they are like Israelis breaking even truce.
Nobody pay attention to this clown now a days.
Everything is a distraction from yesterday’s problem
We must, so long as we are one fat finger button press from nuclear annihilation.
Yet the markets dance to his stupid tweets like a marionette.
The hell if I get it.
So Israel via Trump and the US taxpayer wants to bomb Oman as well?
Well, Bless Trumps little heart…
If Saudi does not sign the Abraham Accord they will become the next target
It would be interesting to see their Patriot batteries refusing to fire at the Usonian incoming missiles.
He has a heart?
Wow, you sure have a cheering crowd of fans here, all sure that Trump is mentally retarded, even though he seems to have made a lot of money, and won two presidential elections in spite of whatever rigging there was.
The cream of the crop, to my mind, is what I take it is a Facebook message from one Brett Erickson, who thinks Trump is in thrall to his advisers. The idea that a rough and rude old man like Trump would be in thrall to advisers strikes me as a bit hilarious. He would throw out the sycophants as soon as he noticed that they always told him what he wanted to hear, and throw out anyone else if he found that they didn’t tell him anything useful. He knows by now that he has to live with people like Senator Lindsey Graham and (let us fervently hope) Senator Rand Paul, because they have independent power bases.
I don’t know any more than you do, whether Trump is going to win this one. He doesn’t win all the time. I wouldn’t worry about what he says about Oman, and I would be very surprised if the Omanis were worried either. I recall when a certain red-blooded Filipino president called Obama the “son of a whore.” Maybe nobody told Obama, but it disappeared into a diplomatic black hole without another word being said. Politicians have idiosyncrasies, and other politicians know about them.
If Trump succeeds, he will have brought order and a degree of peace, if not perfect justice, to a region which doesn’t seem to have had any of those desirable conditions for a long time. For people who haven’t read Machiavelli, that is why some people were willing to forgive Cesare Borgia for being treacherous and ruthless. You can get philosophical and say that Trump should stay home in America if you want. At least he isn’t engaging in pointless exercises like the last three or four American wars in Asia and Africa. And remember that, although Trump hasn’t stopped the Ukraine war yet, it wasn’t him who started it.
I read Machiavelli. At least he had an obsession with making the state and ruler stronger, as opposed to being corrupt.
You think making the State stronger is good in itself? Machiavelli wanted what he called “good arms” in order to stop Italy from being pillaged by whoever dropped in. He was well aware of corruption, and was tortured himself after some silly young conspirators put his name on a list of possible office-bearers, after a coup that they proposed to carry out. The big men in Florence in his day were the Medici, one of the rare families to achieve noble rank by banking rather than by military success.
If you say you have read Machiavelli, I assume you mean that you have read ‘The Prince.’ If you recall, he advises the ruler not to steal everything, and to spend carefully, except when on a military campaign, when the best thing to do is to steal all the enemy’s property, and give it out freely to your soldiers and supporters.
So you think bringing war and then threatening to escalate it brings order and peace
Mentally ill MAGA, what did you expect?
I think it may be more accurate to say “so you think that whatever Trump says is right?”
Order unfortunately means that there is ONE ruler that nobody else can fight. He doesn’t have to be just, although it helps if he is. An alternative is an armed society, in which all the men of appropriate age carry weapons and are prepared to fight. That CAN work, but I think only in a successful society that is going ahead and doesn’t have a big underclass of helpless males.
Arthur, what is your opinion on holding child rapists accountable for their having raped children?
But he made money! /sarc
He hasn’t succeeded and there is every indication he will not. Your take is fictional narrative. You and Stu share that in common as well as other things.
I haven’t met Stu. Whether Trump is going to succeed in this is still unresolved. He seems to be a fast learner, so I have hopes.
You shouldn’t meet him, it would make a dent in space time that no light could escape from.
“Wow, you sure have a cheering crowd of fans here, all sure that Trump is mentally retarded, even though he seems to have made a lot of money…”
Asinine Argument Numero Uno. Had Trump simply taken the money he borrowed from his grifter father, put that money in an S&P500 Index Fund and reinvested the proceeds, he would be richer than he is today.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2021/10/11/its-official-trump-would-be-richer-if-he-had-just-invested-his-inheritance-into-the-sp500/
In other words, Trump isn’t even average as a businessman, compared to the S&P. I won’t even comment on the type of intellectual titan that makes money with grifts like “Trump Steaks(R)”, “Trump University” or WWE.
“If Trump succeeds, he will have brought order and a degree of peace, if not perfect justice, to a region which doesn’t seem to have had any of those desirable conditions for a long time.”
Order and peace were the standard in the region for centuries prior to WWII. It was much safer place when the Ottomans ruled after taking Constantinople (Istanbul) in the 15th century.
It wasn’t until mass terrorism was inflicted on the local, peaceful population by religious Zionists that the region lost its peaceful identity.
That’s a point. One recalls that the Byzantines ruled it for quite a while before the Turks did also, and presumably imposed some king of peace, although I believe they were very corrupt. (I understand that they did have the good sense to maintain a sound money system, which meant that corrupt officials could be bribed and business could be done, whereas in the West, there was nothing to pay with, and you had to either fight the Roman soldier in authority, or go away and give up your business.)
I don’t think you should leave out of the story the fact that the Moslems had apparently become very degenerate and inward-looking, and hadn’t made any scientific or technological progress for centuries. I realize that a lot of technological progress comes originally from military needs: something is invented or adopted by the soldiers, then other people see other uses, and it becomes generally adopted. Maybe that means that a warlike mindset helps progress. (If so, the American military manufacturers certainly have the right idea.)
Also, I don’t think you should avoid mentioning that the peaceful local populations were probably pretty backward. I am not excusing the Israelis (or Jews if you like) for terrorizing them and driving them off their land, but I don’t think you should make it sound as if they were a world of sweetness and light, either.
It could be seen as just another expansion of American business, especially if you include Israel as part of American business. The Americans are meeting resistance in their efforts to take Russia over again (the Soviet government could be seen as a holding company organized by Wall Street to allow them to develop factory industry in a backward country, until it became too inept), so they are expanding in the Middle East instead.
Whatever your interpretation, at least Trump isn’t sitting there and letting the sexual degenerates set the agenda, as they have been doing pretty much since the retreat from Viet Nam.
Trump literally is the sexual degenerate tho
Cover for the epstien files. Keep everyone distracted so you can rig a take over of the elections.
I’m sticking by my tin foil theory that this “Iran War” was actually a coherent, intentional move on the part of the U.S. to get the world to buy oil and gas from the U.S. instead of the Middle East.
Oh, and that oil and natural gas from the U.S. will be expensive, but the rest of the world will have “no choice”. That’s *exactly* what happened in Europe, when the U.S. bombed the Nordstream pipeline which essentially forced Europe to buy expensive LNG from the U.S. instead of cheap piped gas from Russia.
Don’t expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen anytime soon. The takeover of Venezuela’s oil (largest reserves in the world) is part of this diabolical plan. Yes, it’s going to require a huge investment and will take many years, but I predict 10 years from now, this “Iran War” scheme will be obvious in hindsight.
Wanted to point out that “Ukraine” (U.S. proxy) has been attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure since the “Iran War” started. The press has not been covering this much, but it’s another piece of the puzzle to consider. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-escalates-drone-strikes-against-russian-oil-infrastructure-exports-down-10/ar-AA23uSCp
A US proxy that gets no support from the US and is pressured (by the US) to give up its defense lines to Russia? Thats perhaps a little too far fetched for me.
Bullshit Ukraine gets no support.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/diplomatic-theater
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/palantirs-laboratory
If the US wanted to pressure Ukraine into anything, it need only cut off ISR and Starlink. Would not cost a cent and Ukraine would have no choice but to fold.
I have wondered and debated this since Feb 28.
Either it was the ultimate grand master strategic plan, or just like the 1,000 monkey’s randomly writing Shakespeare novels.
I generally ignore what Trump says and observe what he does instead.
Same bullshit we heard about Russia’s economy crashing. Iran continues engaging in international commerce via the Caspian Sea and overland thru neighboring Pakistan.
Iran uses 70% of the oil they produce internally. They may have to scale down some oil production but they didn’t have a problem doing it several times in the past 10 years.
Iran may be having financial troubles but the people of Iran are in no hurry to be gazafied by the U.S. and Israel.
This administration is the one showing signs of desperation….
another set of US attacks on Bandar Abbas by the US and…
The Israeli military has issued forced displacement orders for the entire population of southern Lebanon, threatening them to flee north of the Zahrani River, some 40km (25 miles) from Israel’s border, as all areas south of the river are now “combat zones“.
Aid agencies warn of an “absolute catastrophe” in southern Lebanon amid Israel’s attacks and its intensifying ground invasion.
Note that the US and Israel are always fighting in somebody else’s country, and yet they call it “defense”.
– Trump says he doesn’t fear political fallout from a prolonged war with Iran. > No need to for Him, as he cannot run again, and so he probably wouldn’t. Trump & his Administration are doing what’s best for the Country while President.
– What happened last night is Trump won a battle but will lose the war. Winning a primary is one thing and an election is another. > Not said correctly imo. Trump won a key battle, and with massive support, and once again I might add. No elections to be won or lost for him moving forward, just a resume. He gets past this “Conflict” as he refers to it, and clear sailing could be ahead for his incoming star in JD. If not, then going out with a literal bang is another viable option they have surely considered.
>> I sense, and see examples of small groups swelling up and asking questions and expecting clearer and more definitive answers along with a much better total understanding of “Why” / “How Much” / “Whom” ? All great questions, but answers not readily fourth coming or explained fully now are they? Maybe it’s because we are in a literal war with someone at this very moment. All that can be will be explained in the end, and it will be behind us for now, and History may have a job to do, but only time will tell, if only we could all ask Biden or? about scenarios such as this…
The Zionists will never let Vance get the nomination. I don’t know why they worry about him. He’s already proven himself completely co-opted.
Hilarious.
Laughter is the best medicine, so I am happy to have helped you out.
Not sure, but it seems you don’t care much for JD? He seems more principled than Trump, more engaged in future issues and their importance. Trump does some of that, but JD is much more suited by many reasons, annd age, learnings, and history do have a way of clearing things up.
I like him, and so far he seems to have maintained his independence from what I see and read about him. He is his own man as they say, so far anyway, but Washington does have a way to change you from the inside if your not really careful.
I know…
dont remember Misch being this timely and detailed on the farts of the previous 2
Perhaps Im incorrect
Mish’s old posts are available, you might go see for yourself.
He certainly was all over Biden and the one before that, Trump. Lets also not forget that the current one is far worse than any predecessor, including himself.
I get that you are a person who calls out issues, but with the markets at records (something that has me happy) and oil dropping to $90 have you posted anything nonnegative about current admin
Q: Ms. Bondi, why haven’t you released the Epstein files?
A: “The DOW is at 50,000!!!”
As a reminder, we illegally and immorally attacked a country on the other side of the planet that posed us no risk and did nothing to us, killing thousands of people and destroying 31 universities.
Besides, oil prices will be going up once worldwide strategic reserves are depleted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSSTy5A5CT4
Okay Mikey this might be a tough one so read really carefully. Got it? Okay, here’s the million dollar question: why is oil $90 now when it was $70 a few months ago?
Besides Trump signing into law that private equity can’t buy single family homes and condos going forward, but with some caveats, what has he positively done for the hoi polloi?
Every president since Reagan has had a rising stock market except Bush II. Clinton had the best performance.
Presidents win and lose elections based upon their performance on unemployment, inflation, deflation, real wage growth, standard of living, war and peace, etc.
On war and peace: Trump F–
Inflation: D-
Unemployment : D
Real Wage Growth: F
Standard of Living: F
Typical socialist above . They have suicidal empathy, think that all will be better once they can find another host for their parasitical tendencies. We should have been in a deep depression years ago according to time, but the fed bought us out to kick the can down the road . Whenever all the methods to keep us up have run out you will all need guns and ammo ,and good neighbors .
“Let them eat cake!”
Adherence to the rule of law, constitution and bill of rights? F-
Insider Trading: A+
Corruption: A+
re: oil prices…
Oil prices rose on Thursday after fresh U.S. strikes in Iran renewed concerns over disruptions to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, gained over 1.81% to $96 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1.86% to $90.33 per barrel.
American forces launched fresh strikes in Iran against a military site believed to threaten U.S. troops and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. official told MS NOW. They also reportedly intercepted and downed several Iranian drones.
The US must be judicious in their use of missiles as not many remain
Another Trumptard moron ^
because it has nothing to do with him, it’s all about AI which is due to a bunch of companies from (mostly) California, a state Trump hates and which he and MAGA deride as communist which is somewhat ironic given it’s the home of all the trillion-dollar market cap companies.
Communistic freedom hatin’ California, New Jersey and Massachusetts are net contributors to the federal budget, relative to benefits received.
Trumpy freedum-luvin Texas, the opposite..
https://rockinst.org/issue-areas/fiscal-analysis/balance-of-payments-portal/
He’s just shooting off his mouth again, on all counts.
The saying used to be, don’t take Trump literally, but take him seriously.
No serious adult or nation can take hm literally OR seriously.
I have stopped listening to his blathering, and I merely watch the facts. Those are completely up in the air, based on his consistently unhinged psyche.
Talk is cheap.
Actions speaks louder than words.
A tongue doesn’t get things done.
A well done is better than well said.
Do not be wise in words. Be wise in deeds.
The superior man acts before he speaks, and afterwards speaks according to his action.
Pay less attention to what men say. Just watch what they do.
You mean the rape and killing of children?
Does the market think a deal is at hand or is the market convinced that Trump has backed himself into a situation where re-starting a kinectic war will result in an even worse economic outcome and is thus untenable?
The market has normalcy bias. The market thinks we’re close to a “deal” that will return things to the status quo ante. They’re wrong. The market thinks everybody is motivated solely by money, and it’s inconceivable that Iran could be dead-serious about demanding that Israel stop killing innocents in Lebanon.
Today:
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive | Oil Supply Crisis Won’t End Quickly /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Art Berman
Very informative and realistic talk re oil prices with geologist/energy consultant Art Berman. Berman says, in essence, that everything coming out of the Trump administration concerning oil prices is false—no surprise there—and that oil is never coming down to $80/barrel again, except very sporadically.
https://www.youtube.com/live/IyVUgJ_5H5k
Yep! I wouldn’t be surprised at all if $80 – 90 soon became viewed as a price floor (only if peace, only if the Strait is ‘open’ according to Iran’s protocols). The input costs for extracting oil is only going higher from here.
I have followed Art Berman for years. I agree with him on most things directionally, but I think he tends to promote the worst case scenarios most of the time. Worst case scenarios rarely happen. While I agree that things will get bad, I do not think they well be as bad as he suggests.
In Trump speak, I think this means that he is about to concede something big.
Every time he says something outrageously stupid (as opposed to saying something that is merely outrageous or merely stupid), it’s bluster to draw attention away from something else.
We shall see, I guess. If he actually follows through on this threat (and to reiterate, I put the odds at about 0), though, it would be interesting–essentially bombing the only neutral country in this entire fiasco and agreeing not to bomb the country the us deems an enemy…
My popcorn is getting cold. Start the bombing runs.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-weapons-air-defense-csis-analysis-593f866ad4eae4ddbbcfdafa22267329
I don’t think that’s gonna happen any time soon!
Did you actually read past the title? Did you catch this section?
And remember, weapons are made to be used, not to collect in storage. We have plenty for anything we might need against the Iranian Regime.
And the weapons factories are humming 24 x7 churning out resupply for both Israel and the USA.
So he insisted it was so? Oh, I didn’t catch that! I’m glad Pete Hegseth is capable of wishing the stockpiles full just like he wished those straits open!
great, so more weapons which are “made to be used:. this is a recipe for a successful country, to have an industrial base depend on waging war??
The United States has lost or suffered damage to 42 military aircraft in the Iran war.
This figure comes from multiple independent reports and a Congressional Research Service (CRS) assessment, all converging on the same total.
✈️ Breakdown of the 42 U.S. Aircraft Lost or DamagedThese losses span fighters, drones, tankers, surveillance aircraft, and special‑operations platforms:
🧭 What This Means
We bombed Afghanistan for 20 years and the Taliban still won.
And we put troops in Afghanistan as well. Same with Vietnam.
We have a history of these bad decisions.
The Taliban didn’t win. We gave up. And we didn’t prosecute the war effectively. We should have use neutron bombs in some of the Taliban caves. That would have made them radioactive and unable to be used for years.
giving up=losing=the other side winning.
Remember, the other guys are supposed to be the murderers and terrorists, not us. Remember also, the Taliban never did anything to the USA, that was the Saudi-based Al Qaeda.
As always, excellent analysis!
I was curious if you knew if the downed F-35A was flying too low, or in an area it should have been in. Not for ID purposes, but rather training, and skill sets realized etc. Also what was the search and rescue for, and why were they there? Also for training purposes. Just wondering if you did happen to know.
The F‑35A was hit by an Iranian anti‑aircraft missile guided by a passive infrared (IR) sensor system — not radar. This is the key detail confirmed across multiple reports.
Thanks for the compliment but it is not my analysis. Most of the info that I post is just aggregated on MS Copilot. Often then verified with other AI assistants or plain old Google. Sometimes from posters on X. I like to get multiple sources before I take any report seriously. Lots of crap out there. I also have some pretty good personal sources, but only in oil related areas.
Then thanks for the time you put into it! I very much appreciate it.
This brings me to another question, and I don’t mean to pepper you, but you raise another interesting point. This is the first I have heard about this IR Sensor system. Is this new for Iran? Where did they get it, as it seems more sophisticated than they may have the capabilities to create. I was just caught off guard with the verbiage, and weapon system capabilities. We are talking an F-35.
Could this change things? Is this available for use in the strait, and if so, why have they not used it before? Seems to be a potential game changer, but I am not up on my understanding of much of the war materials being utilized, and have heard more in the last few months than I cared to unfortunately…
Infrared sensors go back to the 1960s in general military use in the USA. Everyone has them now. Infrared light is the same thing as heat. You experience something being hot because it is radiating light in the infrared spectrum. The F-35 exhausts its burnt jet fuel from outlets above the plane specifically to make it difficult to get an infrared signature from the ground. But, it you are above it looking down it’s very visible. It’s not a design flaw, it’ just physics. F-35s are not great as bombers or close air support. They’re meant to stand far outside a battle and launch rockets from a distance. But Iran is a very large country geographically, so you have to put the F-35s in danger.
It’s a small loss. We have many thousand of aircraft. They will be replaced as necessary. Keep reaching.
I don’t believe we have thousands of F-35 aircraft flying around, or any aircraft for that matter. Maybe drones but that’s not aircraft I speak of. Let’s not forget the expense, because we don’t have the money to keep plowing into those type of expenses.
There is no amount of your money Jojo isn’t willing to spend to kill people in the Middle East.
Only those who need killing.
We lost ONE f-35. Try to keep up.
We have all the money we need. We can print more whenever we need more. If this isn’t true then why does the deficit keep growing but we see no real effect on our economy?
Oh, we can certainly start bombing. What we can’t stop is the barrage of drones and missiles coming the other way, or the economic trainwreck that follows.
Shot down 4 more Iranian attack drones. So sorry, Ayatollah! 🤣
The cope is strong today! And likely will be until you ar eproven wrong come Novemeber.
Willing to bet on that?
Yes, I will be on Polymarket and Kalshi? Will you?
Yep! And I’ll make it personal. If the GOP keeps the house, I won’t comment here again. If they lose it, you can fuck off for good. Deal?
The world economy is now running on fumes and Trump doesn’t care if billions go broke or starve. The depravity of this man knows no bounds.
Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™
You know when I read:
“Trump says he doesn’t fear political fallout from a prolonged war with Iran.”
Two thoughts came to mind: (1) Trump and the Republicans could always rig elections, and (2) he could find some state of emergency by which he could dely (maybe even stop) elections. A new virus outbreak, boots on the ground in Iran leading to wide spread protests in American cities, or perhaps a natural or manmade disaster.
Because that statement suggests Trump might already know the outcome; that or he’s just stupid.
Trump has mis-estimated everything else lately. I cannot believe he knows the outcome of diddly-squat. He is detached from reality. Let’s get the WH wrestling match going! So I’ll take “just stupid” for the win, Alex.
Elections in the US are irrelevant at this point. The far greater concern is the world boycotting American goods and services. The world is already moving away from Microsoft, Google, and other big tech. Europe and Asia are moving away from Visa/Mastercard paradigm.
The depletion of oil around the world will only encourage nations to look inward across the board for energy, tech, supply, etc.
What the US will have left are 80+ million geezers begging for more social handouts followed by 40 million genx then another 80 million millenials, the oldest of which are now in their mid-40s.
That’s the real end game: demographics. Always has been, always will and there is no way to fix it without immigration. Median age of female is 40 in US. It’s over, get what you can and get out.
– Elections in the US are irrelevant at this point. > Can’t entirely agree with that, as much damage could be done, and by either side, if they get enough power and control centralized. That’s something to watch out for.
– The far greater concern is the world boycotting American goods and services. > I agree, this is a great concern, but we do offer much that others need (ex. food & energy) and have a hard time coming across its availability. If that goes away as well, we are in a bad position for many reasons I do agree!
– The world is already moving away from Microsoft, Google, and other big tech. Europe and Asia are moving away from Visa/Mastercard paradigm. > They, like many others, have been slowly pricing themselves out of the World Market, so to say. As the World catches up, and it has and will continue to, they are not nearly as needed, and certainly not for the money and control they desire. It’s what podcast did to MSM in a sense imo…
– What the US will have left are 80+ million geezers begging for more social handouts followed by etc… > When are they going to do away with SS? STOP taking the money, and let people do it. It’s Time has long passed, for what it represented and how that was being accomplished. We have things in place to do so, without having the hand of Government in there, except for their Vig on the % you earn of course… but I digress.
– That’s the real end game: demographics. Always has been, always will and there is no way to fix it. > Always a way to fix things, and especially when the Taxpayers are paying for it. Lesson handouts, lower taxes but all pay them/some, lesson choices, lesson bad ingredients (doing now), stop tariffs, but have a swap deal in place. You want X and we het Z. Write up the “short term” contract , and review again when the contract expires. Simplicity, like contracts used to be!! We need some changes to be sure, but very doable imo, but with some initial pain for those getting used to it…
Energy is in the hands of a few. Most Americans are paying over $4 at the pump. As long as AIPAC buys Congress and Miriam Adelson buys the President, and they have videos of them with Epstein, Congress will not do what’s best for the American people.
It’s true trump is incredibility stupid, but more concerning is that if rigging the election is proven or elections stopped internal strife and maybe even civil war follows.
That’s what a people whose culture encourages the poor to idolize the rich gets.
You guys don’t understand that Trump moved from 5d chess to 6d chess. Puny little humans.
Y’all seen the downward movement in oil today (extending loses from yesterday)?
Either trading is not done by humans anymore (ai) and thus trade is on headlines only (kind of stupid and dangerous IMO), or the oil market knows that a deal is gonna be made soon.
The latter is equally stupid because it doesn’t reflect reality, at least from how I understand it.
But I still got to ask, what gives on oil prices dropping recently? It’s odd, flashing, is telling of something:, good, bad I don’t know.
Amazing day to buy back calls and sell puts. Now’s a great time to buy write energy stocks for the next news cycle. Or if you’re feeling lucky, sell OTM puts on energy stonks.
Markets are often irrational. And famously, they can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
The longer this lasts, the higher oil prices will go. And based on how things appear to be going, this will last for much longer than market traders believe.
We are managing to avoid a severe supply crunch for the moment by running down global storage. The US SPR dropped by 9.1 mb last week and 9.8 mb two weeks ago. The same is happening everywhere else where there are reserves. This will end soon. And when it does, prices could spike significantly.
It would not surprise me to see oil stay around $100/bbl even after the conflict ends.
My own strategy remains to day trade the ups and downs as they happen, while maintaining a core position for the long term.
Maybe Trump buys into this theory (Wall Street Journal):
The Oil Mystery at the Heart of America’s Pressure Campaign on Iran
The U.S. government, oil traders and private analysts are divided over how much time Tehran has before it runs out of places to stash its crude
That does not matter. Iran has been through this many times over the last several decades. Sanctions on oil and economic sanctions as well. It has never stopped them. They have learned how to survive.
The US keeps doing these same things over and over and expecting a different result.
Iran consumes 70% of their oil internally and continues to export some oil via the Caspian, rail connections, and the oil vessel through the strait.
It is fairly easy to just cut back production.
It’s amazing to me that CVX and XOM are at or slightly below where they were the day before the war started. Not sure what caused their rise the first two months of the year but it seems their current prices are a floor with all that’s happened.
It is obvious to anyone that can do arithmetic that traders are buying the rumor without verifying if it is true. They also subjectively want oil to go down or remain below or slightly above $100 a barrel so the world doesn’t enter into a bigger recession than is forecasted.
Similarly, they are leery of Trump declaring victory and walking away. If this were to happen, W. Asia and N. Africa energy and other commodity flows would be administered by Iran, Russia and China exiting the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. In my view, this would be a positive for the world.
Trump has until the US oil reserves run out till oil skyrockets in the US to an average of approximately $8 a gallon or around $140.00 a barrel.
So close to a deal
Just have to sort out nuclear, Strait, Lebanon, release of funds, reparations, guarantee of end of hostilities
Yeah, I’d say 99% there
Don’t forget everybody in sight signing the Abraham Accords, the latest “deal point” Trump abruptly tossed onto this bonfire of vanities.
You, sir /mam are an optimist !
All please cease with the word “deal” in all and every context. It is a revolting reminder of our present reality. In any case, I am not selling my oil stocks despite knowing the cycle will end, soon but not yet.
Oh but you missed the best quote Mike:
Now THAT is what I call hoot of the century material! Hoot of all time, perhaps. I think you will find that no wiser words have ever been uttered by either man or beast throughout the eons.
Trump is simply trying to negotiate through the media. Iran is likely paying no attention. As many Maga’s say “don’t listen to what he is saying, look at what he is doing”. So in other words not much. He is vacillating between a shitty deal and bluffing about blowing things up. I now think his intention is to stall until the mid terms and let congress end the war, based on his comments about not caring about the mid terms. I think he knows he has lost. He is already looking at ways to pardon himself.
All true, but in fact, the “worse” the deal (from a DC/Tel Aviv perspective), the more just it is. All of Iran’s demands are entirely reasonable.
Resolve wouldn’t help; the US lacks the means.
And Iran knows it — it’s been strategizing this for decades.
Losing 3-5 Senate seats in a midterm election is absolutely normal, historically.
Abby Normal times will dictate Abby Normal results.
Yes, that is the risk the Dems face.
probably lose 50 seats in the House. The impeachment committees and hearings of Hegseth, and Rubio, will be non stop. Will find out who is betting billions just before action is taking place in the Middle east etc.
With the 2026 Senate map, the default was the Dems were expected to gain maybe one seat. At the most.
Oman was a longtime ally of the US and a mediator between the US and Iran. Now he’s threatening to blow them up. That will sure keep them on our side. Good job, Dementia Don!
That’s because they were talking to Iran about instituting toll passage. Such a stoopid move. Why did they do it?
Because they can? Their territorial waters and those of Iran virtually abut each other in the Strait. I’ll allow it.
Are you tired of winning?
USIS on their way to the most hated countries on the planet
The biggest worry is that the Repulican Party has people running it that are worst than Trump
Does Trump run the GOP or the billionaires?
The same could’ve been said for Biden, Obama and Clinton regarding the Democrats as well as Bush II, Bush I and Ronnie Raygun for the GOP.
Iran will only let the Strait traffic rise after their assets are unfrozen and all sanctions are lifted. Then they’ll talk about enrichment levels, but no uranium will be taken out of Iran. Hegsdeath can’t do anything. If 39 days of bombing 14,000 targets didn’t make the Iranian government buckle, another few weeks of the same won’t work.
Wrong as usual. The Regime has no money coming in with their ports blocked. They can’t pay their workers or subsidize food without revues, no matter how inflated their money unit is.
Trump understands this and will keep the squeeze on. The Iranian Regime hawks in the administration are holding the line!
You have been saying that for two months now. You will be saying it for many more.
But perhaps you already realize the futility of trying to wait them out. Which is why you keep advocating for more bombing.
Just wait til Trump blockades Iranian pistachios. That will bring them to their knees.
You and others here are despicable Iranian fanboyz who view the terrorist Iranian Regime as an underdog because of the severe case of TDS all of you suffer from. Anything that hurts Trump, even if it hurts the USA, is good from your POV. This colors your view of reality.
What we are doing is the equivalent of a siege. It is working but siege’s take time. Iran is suffering. The people aren’t working, aren’t getting paid. Food is difficult to afford. Inflation is rampant. We can wait them out but I contend that we should regularly drop bombs to soften them up further. Possibly hit a water desalination plant or two. Or an oil pipeline.
We can wait them out. As Trump stated on Wednesday, he does not care about the midterms and as he previously stated, he doesn’t care about temporary economic pain for the USA. Sacré bleu!
But rather than me restate the obvious effects of our economic blockade and sanctions, for your feeble mind, I’ll simply point you to an AI summary of where Iran is currently. This should be clear to even those with the IQ of a rock, such as yourself.
Only a dumb fuck like you would think that someone here is “an Iranian fanboy”.
No one here is cheering for the Iranians. The commenters here simply point out the reality that Iran is not the helpless basket case you keep implying. They have been dealing with both attacks and sanctions for decades and are very adept at managing.
On the other hand, Trump cultists like yourself believe Trump when he says their pipelines and oilfields will blow up in 3 days, and they are “begging” for a deal. Two months later you are still waiting. lol Such is the power of a cult to get dumb fucks to believe such nonsense.
I got your goat Gramps. You sound very flustered! 😂
Yawn
You cheered the flushing of American soldiers’ lives down the toilet and trillions of dollars down the toilet in Afghanistan. Now, it’s Iran. Stop listening to Hannity and your preacher. How did Hannity’s, your preacher’s, and your prayers do in Afghanistan?
Correct, except that Iran will only unencumbered the traffic through the strait if the US and Israel pay compensation for the aggressive war against it.
one word summarises Trump’s threat to blow up Oman. Hubris
Middle eastern countries have long memories and are not held back by electoral cycle. This disrespectful attitude will have consequences in the long run.
I am so sick of Trump I can hardly stand it anymore. Two and a half more years of this clown? He’s more like the clown from the movie “It”- Pennywise the Dancing Clown. God help us all.
Well now that you mention IT… Didn’t Pennywise/The Deadlights also eat children?
Instead of focusing on Trump, focus on profits. One will make you sad, the other happy. be happy.
Nero, is that you with the fiddle?
Ah, geopolitics and dementia… a match made in heaven.
Woodrow Wilson’s wife ran things when he was incapacitated. Maybe Melania should take over.
She’s “be best” option. LOL.
Same with Bidens wife.
Wilson’s very best action as President was to have that stroke. The frequency with which the US has been ruled by authoritarian cockroaches doesn’t say much good about “democracy.”
Agree. Wilson was bad news.
Taco’s pea brain continues to fail him on a daily basis.