The US can no longer provide protection to Mideast allies. And they know it.
US Dominance in the Middle Is Over
Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s broker in the US-Iran talks, tells Bloomberg US Dominance in the Middle East Is ‘Basically Over’
After nearly six weeks of war, how did Pakistan manage to get the United States and Iran to talk? Maleeha Lodhi was Pakistan’s ambassador to the US on 9/11, a moment that reset the relationship between the two countries. Now, she says, personal relationships have made Islamabad the region’s only viable peace broker. For her, this weekend’s talks also carry wider significance, as middle powers take on a larger role in shaping global politics.
Bloomberg: What was happening behind the scenes that made these talks possible?
Lodhi: Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders were both working the phones. Pakistan’s army chief, [Field Marshal Asim Munir] in particular, was on the line to Washington at all times, from what I hear — especially in the last couple of days before the agreement was forged. Pakistan’s Prime Minister [Shehbaz Sharif] was on the phone to the Iranian leadership constantly.Bloomberg: The words about ending a civilization, that kind of rhetoric? Did you in that period also think, How is this going to bear fruit?
Lodhi: Yes. When President Trump began to sound so frustrated and angry, I thought, This is it. The US will never agree to the terms the Iranians conveyed — the famous 10 points. Initially, the Americans rejected them. But then, as we’ve seen, both sides walked back from the maximalist positions.Bloomberg: Iran is going into these talks with very ambitious — some would say outlandish — demands. At the same time, President Trump is saying the military objectives have been met.
Lodhi: Both sides have a narrative which says they’ve achieved their objectives — they’ve been victorious. I think both sides know their terms for these negotiations are maximalist. The question is whether they can find sufficient common ground. They did find common ground when Oman was mediating. They were close to a deal at that time. Suddenly, America decided to join Israel in attacking Iran. So perhaps they can go back to that kind of an agreement.But the additionality is provided by the Strait of Hormuz — that now becomes central to the negotiation. There you can see the positions are very far apart. President Trump keeps changing his mind, but he’s saying he’d like to work with Iran to regulate or operate the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians are probably aghast at having to work with anybody, but they’re prepared to work with Oman. They’re saying, This has been a free ride and we are going to charge fees for whatever maritime traffic takes place through the strait — maximalist positions.
Bloomberg: We don’t know what kind of agreement they’ll reach or its chances of lasting. We know there’s also a difference on Lebanon. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is saying Lebanon is part of this ceasefire, and Israel is saying it isn’t.
Lodhi: The big question is whether Israel will sabotage the [US-Iran] ceasefire. If they were to play spoiler by continuing attacks on Iran and exposing Trump’s inability to constrain Israel, then we are looking at a very complex and challenging situation.Bloomberg: Even though there are many unknowns, what does your instinct tell you about the chances of success from this process in Islamabad?
Lodhi: I’d like to be optimistic. Both sides know there is more economic pain for everyone, including themselves, if there was a relapse into fighting.Both sides are in a position right now to proclaim, We’ve achieved our objectives. They may not be able to do that if there is a recurrence of war. That provides a strong incentive to try to hammer out a deal.
They can’t keep going to war every seven months. I mean, they can. But the costs have been piling up.
Bloomberg: The Strait of Hormuz appears to have been a dimension that the Americans did not think through at all.
Lodhi: Yes, absolutely. The Americans made several miscalculations, and this was one of them. The other was the thought that once [Iran’s] leaders had been decapitated, the regime would just collapse.Ultimately, the US underestimates the power of nationalism. It’s done that throughout history — in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and now in Iran. They really thought that by attacking Iran, those who oppose the regime [would] rise. War has the opposite effect. People close ranks. They forget internal differences. They become a more unified nation. That’s exactly what happened.
Bloomberg: Is that what you hope the United States learns this time?
Lodhi: I remember the early days after 9/11. My country’s officials privately told the Americans: Don’t go and occupy Afghanistan. Military action should be short and surgical. Don’t become an army of occupation. Why? Because we have experience in this region, and we know that people will resist an outsider. They will resist foreign occupation. That’s exactly what happened.The US takes pride in its own country. People are flag-waving, yet don’t understand that other countries have people who are equally proud of their country and want to protect it.
Bloomberg: Do you think this moment marks the start of a different world order? America can start wars but can’t control the economic fallout, and regional dynamics and alliances shift as a result?
Lodhi: I hope the lesson learned would be that military supremacy doesn’t achieve the outcome that is desired.[We are] moving towards a more multipolar world. US dominance has been fading.
The combined military might of the United States and Israel took on a country that was militarily much weaker — whose allies in the region had also been weakened — yet that country resisted.
What that says is the era of America’s dominance in the region is basically over.
Bloomberg: When you say the era of American dominance is over, explain how you see that playing out in the Middle East. President Trump is saying this could be the “Golden Age of the Middle East.” America has all these bases in the region.
Lodhi: They will be rethinking in the US: What is the point of having thousands and thousands of troops in the region when they can’t, on their own, determine what happens in the region? Even before Iraq, what did they do there?It’s been a process; it’s not as if this war has brought it about. US dominance over the world, not just the region, was beginning to be replaced by power dispersed in different places. The war has reinforced trends that were already in play.
Bloomberg: If there is one winner in all of this, would you say it’s China?
Lodhi: There are reports the Chinese eventually persuaded Iran [to accept a ceasefire].Certainly China is a beneficiary. What this entire episode highlighted is that China is a force for peace, cooperation and stability, whereas the US is being run by a man who conducts himself in such a whimsical manner and has disrupted so much — global trade and, of course, this war of choice. The contrast is stunning.
Bloomberg: Paint a picture of the Gulf and South Asia in three years’ time. A more settled place? Or do you think what has been unleashed is too immense?
Lodhi: The Middle East has changed forever. Things are not going to go back to what they were before.What comes in its place depends on reassessments that Gulf countries may have to carry out. Many of them are feeling abandoned by the United States — that this American security umbrella was of no value to them, because America didn’t defend them. America defended Israel. Israel always has a priority over them.
Certainly we’re not going to be in for a period of immediate stability. It will be a period where the US will increasingly withdraw — which is what Trump said in the first place in his National Security Strategy. Who fills that power vacuum will depend on the realignments that will take shape.
Bloomberg: Finally, with your experience of diplomacy, what’s your advice to those gathering for a high-stakes encounter?
Lodhi: What we used to say a lot at the UN: You have to think of the other’s concerns, as much as you push your own interests. Show flexibility, so that common ground can be found. Otherwise, we can’t have an agreement.
“We Will Control Anything We Want”
The excerpts above are portions of a free link, valid for seven days. The interview provides a clear synopsis of what happened.
Trump is totally incapable of seeing anything from the point of view other than his demands.
It’s not just Trump as evidenced by Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, and now Iran.
But Trump has projected things much more loudly, arrogantly, and incorrectly than anyone before him.
“We will control anything we want,” said Trump. And that was after it was proven false.
The Lego War
That’s hilarious. Please play it,
Trump Is Not in Control
Trump is not in control of anything in this mess. For starters, Trump is at the mercy of Israel who could clobber the peace talks anytime it wants.
Trump believes military power is paramount. It’s not when the other side has nothing left to lose. Iran knew exactly how to strike back at Trump.
The resultant inflation and anti-war sentiment forced Trump to capitulate with Iran in peace talks. Most of Iran’s 10-point demands are in play.
The strait is not open. And Iran setup a toll booth. Trump’s only response has been to feebly beg Iran to open the strait. Gone is Trump’s asinine rhetoric of blowing them back to the stone age and ending their civilization overnight.
Trump’s lack of control stems far beyond the Mideast. US allies once fearing Trump’s tariffs, no longer cower to hos demands following the Supreme Court Tariff decision. Europe now openly defies Trump on Greenland and military bases.
China is in control of rare earth minerals.
Trump cannot even control his MAGA base. Infighting over the war and Epstein have been massive.
Finally, and arguably the most important, Trump has an obvious lack of control of his emotions.
Trump negotiates like a playground bully infused with a two-year-old child’s temper tantrum.
How Do Things Change?
Gradually at first, then all at once.
The US was slowly losing control already. Trump’s fight for total control over allies and foes alike sped up the process.
Trump will not reverse this. Now should he try. But he will try, with more negative consequences.
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The war and resultant inflation is what forced capitulation by Trump.
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MAGA splinters big time over the war. Trump’s reaction makes things worse.
This morning Australian time comes news that Trump is going to blockade the Persian Gulf. I have to cheer. None of you armchair generals thought of that.
What doesn’t seem to sink into anyone’s head is that, unlike the generality of politicians, Trump has ability. He is able to listen to his generals and understand what is possible and what is not. Unlike all the fools who bungled Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and maybe other episodes that other people have mentioned, he can listen to the experts and understand what they can advise him about and what they can’t. That is leadership and generalship. It’s what Reagan had, Nixon had, Jack Kennedy had, and maybe the boy Clinton had to some degree. You have had vast amounts of time when there was no apparent leader in charge (one may hope that there was someone behind the curtain who could actually think), but it is so much better if there is an actual man out in front, even if his character is seriously imperfect, who can actually think, take advice, and make decisions.
“Wah” – Mike, every single day that Trump is President.
so true-He has really lost it (TDS)
Ya but look at the Dow!
“Trump believes military power is paramount.”
What military power?
If the US had the military power that you and most Americans astonishingly keep on believing it has, you wouldn’t be begging/threatening the rest of NATO to help you reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
And tellingly, the reason the rest of NATO (for which reopening the Strait of Hormuz is literally VITAL, as opposed to the US) refuses to do so is that after seeing what’s happening in the Epstein Fury Operation they KNOW they too would not have the military power to do so…
If Trump can get us back to a Pre-WW1 Isolationist nation, I would call it a success.
Success. In 1910 USA, the lifespan of men was 56 and women 63.
Well that would solve our social security crisis.
Yeah, but that’s because medical care was medieval. Also, now most people work cushy office jobs, and have OSHA to provide better working conditions for labor.
Speaking of just foreign policy and our role in the world, the far-leftists of 1970 were talking about an end to imperialism, abolishing the military and pulling out of the rest of the world, = isolationism without calling it isolationism.
– More quietly, recently, but one of the hopes of Great Replacement Theory in the USA is that the immigrants will outvote the white majority and redistribute America’s wealth and foreign policy from the imperialist white supremacists and to themselves, and what was America will be a better place, as they reckon it.
Since when do isolationists Demand the world give the US Greenland, Invade Venezuela, meddle in 8 wars, and start a war in Iran?
What the F are you smoking.
Is that you, Donnie?
U S defence equipment for a conventional War need upgrade, quality.US weapons may find less demand.Saudi China and other Gulf States were also in Pakistan during the talks.Saudi has a Military Pact with Pakistan for mutual help if one is at War.
We’re the “Hottest” country on the planet alright. Major dumpster fires EVERYWHERE!!!!
Why is everyone complaining? Trump said he’d swing the wrecking ball around the world and by golly, after just a year in office, look at the expanse of rubble all around! The guy’s a genius, and we all have three years to go! /s
Of course, Trump is not going to accept blame for a little collateral damage here and there. Wrecking balls are not surgical instruments!
So, I imagine Hegseth is in his office now boxing up his personal effects in preparation for his firing.
Vance was given an impossible mission. He’ll be pilloried for “appeasement,” and that will be the end of a once promising political career.
I look forward to reading his memoir “Hillbilly in the Cabinet.”
I don’t know, sending Vance to handle the negotiations is a double edged sword. Trump accepted Iran’s conditions for negotiations, but those conditions are diametrically opposed to US conditions. All Vance has to do is say Iran refuses to surrender to US demands and walk away. Which is what he has done. That throws the ball back into Trump’s court. So what does Trump do? Accept Iran’s demands? Go back to bombing hoping it might change something and watch gas prices sky rocket? Call Vance low-IQ and send Hegseth to negotiate? By walking away, Vance is forcing Trump to face his stupid mess while Vance sits back and laughs at him.
You make a very good point I hadn’t considered!
Obviously, NOTHING.
The template for American wars has always remained the same from inception.
This is how it went down in 1812, when the Capitol and the White House were ultimately burnt down. But the Canadian population did not rise up to welcome and help the invaders.
And it started at the founding:
During the Haitian Revolution (1791–1804), President George Washington intervened in support of the French planter regime to suppress the slave revolt.
Me thinks we are getting overextended. One of the final phases before collapse.
Death throes of a dying nation
Regarding Webej’s last paragraph, given how badly in debt America was at the time, I doubt that we provided aid to anyone in Haiti. But likely we did sell arms to whoever, and the French had more money for that than the Haitian freedom fighters.
That this turned sour for the warmakers so fast sounds like the accumulation of all our recent past bad experiences. – I feel that we won’t much like what will naturally happen in the world after we bring all our forces home.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the markets Monday. Expect Trump to try to talk them up.
Algorithms are already putting in those sell orders.
Lots of opinions here but I don’t expect much rational from the Middle East. They’ve been fighting there for 4000 years.
Correct. But the difference is now the USa is dumb enough to get heavily involved
Who hasn’t?
Ceasefire was for 2 weeks. Looks like we’ve still got a week and a half for more posturing and talks.
Vance got sent home with nothing. Looks like a man that got roundly mocked but didn’t get all the jokes.
Oil moons on Monday.
It sounds like what was typical of most of the Vietnam War peace talks. For a very long time all the other side was offering was maximalist you capitulate to what we demand. Iran has found our pressure point. We haven’t found any of their’s, yet.
As for the price of oil, that is the obvious way to destroy enough demand to match a 20% smaller supply. That reduced demand ought to all come out of our American demand for oil. Think stay-cations, and go further.
Unfortunately, Trump has now entrenched Iran’s odious regime to last. And to boot, Iran looks like the new superpower in the Middle East that can take on both the US and Israel without buckling. Stupid wars have consequences.
Iran is the bully of the Middle East and has made a lot of trouble there. So has America. Both countries have behaved badly. The Middle East is a hornets nest. But America has degraded Iran’s ability to fight….but they can still bomb other Middle East Countries, which they’ve been doing. It’s a strange kind of retaliation….America bombs Iran, so Iran bombs Kuwait, Omar, Dubai and UAE. I think that’s blatantly provocative. I can understand attacks on Israel but those Persian Gulf States didn’t attack Iran.
They let the US establish bases on their territory from which the US can attack Iran. Of course Iran has already rendered 13 of those bases unusable. Iran is attacking those countries as punishment for siding with the US and to hobble their gas and oil production. Iran has the world economy by the balls and don’t intend to let go until the US leaves the region, sanctions are lifted, Israel stops slaughtering innocents and the US-Israel Axis of Evil can’t continue to threaten Iran.
Iran’s national goals go further than that. While they might loosen their grip on the world economy a bit, they and Rep. Tlaib of MI and many others still want to see Israel defeated and “Palestine free from the river to the sea”. They know what or where Israel’s Jews can go. That is one of the unhappy things we will see come out of the new world order.
They allow American bases to attack Iran. They allow overflight and refueling of American and more importantly Israel in their bombing runs. america famously bombed Cambodia and Laos with more explosives than used in WW2 as they were supply staging area for the Vietcong.
Xinhua News
U.S. Vance onboard to leave Pakistan without deal with Iran
via Xinhua News Agency
Kushner and Witkoff are reporting to their superiors in Israel.
Netanyahu launching more attacks on Lebanon.
The President of the United States and the Secretary of State are attending a UFC event tonight in Miami as negotiations with Iran collapse in Islamabad—raising the risk of a massive war restarting.
Tomorrow he will be golfing, and/or watching the Masters.
Then, after attending church, he will order the end of Iranian civilization in the name of God. Back to the Stone Ages with them!
Talks over, no deal. I guess oil probably going to pop on Monday, maybe a lot if things start going kaboom. Iran gave US ships 30 minutes to leave.
Looks like I’m selling calls high instead of buying back low.
Profits will be amazing but the inflation will be blazing….
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
I assume the usual circle of Trump cronies have got their well timed bets in already and a killing to be made when the market re-opens.
I Agree! What many that want Peace in Iran have been waiting for, may have finally arrived!
The Iran people have slowly been gathering arms and offensive gear. It appears they have started to use them on some forces trying to hold them down, and successfully. The Leadership is in Tatters, and what is left, is splintered at best.
Now the time is ripe, for the Iranian People to stand up and fight until they are in control, and hence in charge as well. May even get some additional unexpected Iranian support as well.
This could be the turning point in the war imo.
I see no choice at some point fairly soon, for some semblance of Peace in small areas within this Region.
With help from many other Countries now, the Strait will be open soon enough, and for good this time I would hope. Many changes coming quickly perhaps. So is the Mid-Term…
Lol! Where do you get this garbage? You are delusional.
Some IRGC were just taken out by Iran non supporters I suppose you could say. They have formed groups and are hunting them down at their checkpoints.
Sure they are.
How do you keep falling for this crap?
Perhaps if you would read real reports from real people on the ground you would know this, instead you choose fake mainstream news.
Then show me these reports.
Just reading the reports like everyone else.
Resistance Against the IRGC:
The Iranian people are increasingly opposing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through various forms of resistance, particularly in response to the IRGC’s violent actions against dissent.
Emergence of Organized Movements
Kaveh Organization: Following the 2026 Iran massacres, the Kaveh organization was founded to actively resist IRGC members. This group represents a significant effort by the Iranian populace to confront the IRGC’s oppressive tactics.
Methods of Resistance:
Protests: Widespread protests have been a common method for expressing discontent against the IRGC’s
actions. These protests often focus on the IRGC’s role in suppressing freedoms and enforcing theocratic rule.
Public Awareness: Activists and citizens are raising awareness about the IRGC’s human rights abuses, aiming to garner international support and pressure the Iranian government.
Impact of Resistance:
The growing resistance against the IRGC indicates a shift in public sentiment, as more Iranians are willing to confront the regime’s security apparatus. This movement reflects a broader desire for change and accountability within Iran.
It’s all good, so don’t fight it…
Can you provide a link to the data you are reading?
Baghdad Bob Bot
Just relaying what’s being reported.
put down the game, boy
Damn it, I thought it was the remote. My bad…
The Iranian people just watched the Regime defend them against a mad man that was going to destroy their civilization.
And the day that Trump was threatening that we bombed thier universities, bridges, and their national monuments.
Um, the so called Regime, was the reason. The people want peace, and the only way to get it, is by the removal of the IRGC. The KAVEH Organization will help tremendously with this. They are locked and loaded now, and starting to make the moves they were designed and built to do. With the enemy busy with the U.S. they were finally given the time to build there base, strategy, and active soldier count.
Some clarification for your questions:
What are the causes of civilian uprisings against the IRGC in Iran?
The recent civilian uprisings in Iran were initially sparked by economic hardships, including severe inflation, currency collapse, and state mismanagement of essential services.
However, the protests quickly evolved into broader demands for political change, human rights, and an end to the repressive theocratic system, with many calling for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
The IRGC, as the regime’s military arm, has been heavily involved in suppressing these protests, leading to widespread outrage and further fueling the unrest.
The IRGC is not the military in Iran. The Iranian military reports to the President. The IRGC reports to the religious leadership. Iran is a democracy and you can protest the current parties policies. But you can’t protest the Islamic theocracy itself. That’s where the IRGC comes in with machine guns. It is similar to Hitler’s brown SS, or the US’s ICE (though their killing is on a much smaller scale).
They are still up against one of Chairman Mao’s sayings: “Power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp and Basij has guns and are willing to kill Iranians left and right and in great numbers.
21 hours of talks. No agreement with Iran.
Still talking, which is very good imo.
No. Talks ended. US delegation heading home. No agreement.
Too bad! Great… Now what? WTF!
No, not WTF, it’s UFC night in Miami, and Trump and Rubio had nothing else to do
Now what? Really?
More of what has been happening for the last 5 weeks.
Iran continues to control the strait and restrict traffic. Shortages of oil, gas, helium, fertilizer etc keep getting worse. Global recession coming.
But that’s okay. Trump says he doesn’t care if a deal was made or not. So the Golden Age must still be coming.
let’s not get to worried about it. we need to focus on the important things like why are people talking so much shit about Melania?
which I think has to do with the Wolff lawsuit because no one else was talking about Epstein and M.
Trump wants to boost Hungary economy if orban wins election. Wow
Trump’s meddling made it far more likely Orban will lose. Trump is going to blame Vance
I thought Trump was grooming Vance to take his chair? Why blame him, and add negative consequences?
Trump has dementia. He doesn’t even know what a negative consequence is. He attacks everybody.
No self-awareness on how toxic the Trump and the US brand has become
Here’s hoping ……….. 🙂
“Hungarians would vote for a goat…if it was running against Orbán.”
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/authoritarian-prime-minister-viktor-orban-hungary-elections-peter-magyar-tisza-fidesz-party/
US and Israel are the undisputable main source of instability in Middle East since end of WW2.
Hope everybody will find the common pathway to PEACE.
Iran proposes a solution. Death to Israel no more Israel no more Jews (in the Mideast, uncertain whether they seek death to all Jews worldwide.) And the USA expelled from the region. Again uncertain whether Iran et al. wants the USA expelled from all regions of the world.
The US sent two warships into the strait to begin minesweeping. The Iranians said that they don’t know where all their mines are and that they would allow US ships to help find and remove them.
USS Michael Murphy had their location services turned on so anyone could track them while they were in the area. USS Frank E Peterson did not.
The pesky Iranian navy made the ships turn around. Apparently, they didn’t get the memo about their obliteration.
?? What Iranian navy? I heard that all their ships are now coral reef starter.
America can still destroy anything it wants in the Middle East.
But it can’t control it. That’s a big difference now.
It was SO STUPID to start this war. SO very stupid.
no, I think the issue is that America can not prevent Iran from destroying anything it wants in the ME and Iran has a stranglehold on the Strait.
America still controls the open sea outside the Strait. I wonder if Trump and Iran will agree to tolls shared between the 2 of them and Oman…
it was a stupid war.
The easy impression is that this has been a stupid war. But given what Iran has long wanted, we are simply getting there sooner rather than later.
The peace talks in Pakistan went 15+ hours, very late into the night. The talks will resume again Sunday. They developed from indirect to direct talks between the American and Iranian delegations, with Pakistan mediating. Very tight control of information from the meetings. It does sound like Pakistan made some sort of proposal to the parties about reopening the Strait.
Vance is there with his Israeli minders – Kushner and Witkoff. All three of them are snakes – although Vance might be slightly less snakey. Maybe more like a garden skink. If things start looking like peace might break out, Netanyahu will make sure it doesn’t.
But what difference is it going to make? Assume the most perfect deal is created. It only takes one crazy prime minister in Israel or one temper tantrum by orange clown to unravel it all by re-launching an attack. Of course any of the other non-Israel players can also throw a monkey wrench into the machinery. What happens if Hezbollah or some other group launches attacks?
Despite being warned not to take a baseball bat to hornets nests, they did it anyway and now any disturbance will set it all off again.
And inflation is already baked into the cake for summer, fall and maybe winter. Analysts are saying 4% inflation minimum for rest of year.
Peace is difficult, but that doesn’t mean you don’t try
Worth recalling what George Orwell said = “The fastest way to end a war is to lose it.”
[MIDEAST] VANCE: WE WILL RETURN TO THE UNITED STATES WITHOUT REACHING AN AGREEMENT WITH IRAN …
In February of 2026 Israel, suggested to Trump that Iran was ripe for a Regime change.
Israel then showed the Trump team how they had it all planned out. Trump went with that strategy but it is obvious the plan has flopped. Now the first thing needed to start getting Peace negotiations to be taken seriously —is a Regime change again —but now starting in Israel. Could it be done within their own Government through a Coup?
Regime change to be started in US. At least – Foreign Policy thinking.
MAGA movement is in wrong direction. eg. starting foreign wars again.
Hopefully, US will be in right direction after this Iran war.
Max Blumenthal explains how fully Israel controls both parties. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tjXfRp0PwaI&ra=m We can’t change the paradigm unless/until one of the major parties shakes off the bridle Israel holds. The politicians of both parties are almost equally beholden to Israel, but democrat voters are far less supportive of the apartheid state than are GOP voters.
I thought the headline was from the Babylon Bee. The United States Navy is the dominate maritime force in the world. No other military insures freedom of navigation.
Carriers will prove to be the world’s largest coffins at some point. There’s a reason ours are staying 1,000 km away from Iran. Sending a couple of ships through Hormuz while a fragile ceasefire of sorts exists doesn’t prove we can ensure freedom of navigation. It’s just daring Iran to strike them – which they’re choosing not to do at this point. The Houthis thwarted freedom of navigation through Bab al-Mandab for quite a while and can do it again.
Chuck Norris is dead. He did a lot of cool movies throwing kicks and grenades and taking down the bad guys but it was all fiction.
A costly Navy in the age of hyper-sonic missiles and endless drones that fly above the water and below it is a math equation that racks up more debits than credits.
but is is demonstrably NOT ensuring/insuring freedom of navigation.
Melania: “I REALLY DON’T CARE. DO U?“
Trump: “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me because we’ve won”
If the U.S. thinks sending warships through the strait will keep it open, they’re wrong. Iran hasn’t hit them yet, but they will. Then the war will be back on. Saudi airfields will be ablaze. Desalination plants? Israel’s will probably get hit first.
I believe desalinization plans are off the list unless Israel does something really stupid
My hunch is that Iran doesn’t want Arabs in Palestine to suffer. They also care about the common citizens of the Gulf States.
That is a very interesting take on the situation. It basically says that any country can charge a fee on any vessel transiting in international waters, that come in range of its antiship missiles.
Debatable
If you give each country 12 nautical miles, the narrowest part of the strait is 21 nautical miles.
There is no international water at the narrowest part.
Twelve miles represented what a cannonball could hit a long time ago, and has been respected as international law for a long time. Such international law isn’t respected as much nowadays, and new international agreements will have to be worked out for chokepoints. Starting with good relations with the choker.
I get it now, the fee is only “piracy” outside 12 miles, and just “armed robbery at sea” inside 12 miles.
One lies in the bed they make. All of Trump and Hegseth big talk about military power. Well guess what? You willing to pony up $5 trillion plus and hire and equip a couple of million mercenaries and try to remove the Straight from Iranian control? Good fucking luck!
Wait, NOW you care about international law, freedom of navigation and all that?!?
You’re catching on.
Actions, would you like to meet Consequences?
there are, more than likely, more consequences to come.
If nobody can stop them, why not? Not much different than our navy dusting smugglers in the Gulf of Mexico.
I thought you trumphumpers were all about “might makes right”
yep, they act like the world is full of NPCs and they are the star of tje show.
I appreciate your recent posts. They are great.
I would really appreciate a post on your thoughts on gold and precious metals.
I recently read that France repatriated all of the gold they had in US reserves – over 100 tons – secretly. I would love to hear your thoughts on the gold market and predictions about the near term issues
No predictions, other than long term
But US exports overstated by gold.
The BEA will subtract these exports
What does “US exports overstated by gold” mean?
6 weeks ago I said the war on Iran ‘could’ go down as the worst military strategic blunder in history.
It is now clear that Trump has topped both Hitler’s & Napoleon’s infamous military blunders, and the whole Iran war fiasco is just in the beginning stages.
It’s pretty clear the war is going to have an enormous cost to the U.S. and the world and is not going to turn out the way Trump & Nutty Yahoo had planned.
Napoleon and Hitler’s blunders ended up killing hundreds of thousands and millions of their soldiers )and civilians in Hitler’s case).
at least the loss of US military has been very low, at least so far. none of that is due to Trump but to the effectiveness of our military.
there’s no military solution here, at least not one that places troops at much greater risk.
Trotting out UFOs are going to be released next week when they should just release more Epstein files (Smile).
Got to make a play for the rubes.
The US has been a believer in “Death Star” war-fighting machines, which since Vietnam have proved to be non-decisive
This combined with less costly but effective weapons on the opposing side PLUS their enormous advantage of defending their homeland from US invaders have meant that hunkering down results in the US going away.
The US is no longer the desired ally with the winningest warmaking
Trump wants a “Golden Fleet”, meanwhile technology has made a navy an archipelago of large targets forced to stay hundreds of miles away
“Stand off” weapons don’t work so well when fighting someone in their own land
But the kickbacks are simply golden….
well, wunderwaffe means you can go to war with low. casualties and large corporate profits.
if your a neoliberal, what’s not to like?
So we are.good at short bouts of extreme violence, but in a war of attrition we find ourselves where we are now.
You can’t protect the Middle East much less the world when you’re $40 trillion in debt (with no real way to pay it back), are in a demographic death spiral (so bad that the draft age is now 42), have 80 million socialist leeches draining society ($140b/month) and not contributing anything. That’s just the start of the problem in the US, decaying infrastructure, incompetent government, endless bickering between parties and never ending racism, bigotry and misogyny round out other issues.
In my area there are dozens of elementary schools shutting down, not enough population to sustain them, nor enough money to keep open and that problem will only grow. Most of rural America is dying, hospitals shutting down, and thanks to Trump’s tariffs, farmers across US going bankrupt.
And the kicker is things are expected to go really bad in 2030 when social programs start going bankrupt.
So yes, the days of America being the world’s policeman are coming to an end. The best the US can hope for now is unifying North and South America into a giant trading block but that won’t happen with MAGA racists.
Got exit strategy?
Gun control now!!!
lol
I have voted Libertarian in some elections, not that it mattered at all.
Maybe the time of full on war to occupy is over. Beside our wars since ww2. Look at russia in Afghanistan and ukraine. Think china has the new way. Control by investment.
Ask China how that is working out for them. Countries are defaulting lef and right. Panama is kicking out Chinese companies at the Canal.
This was our way until we gradually lost our way. The Soviet Union collapsed when its foreign war expenses got it to a place where it could barely put groceries in a market. Meanwhile stories were told about good of a life in the west people had that worked hard. Full refrigerator, 2 cars in every garage, own house.
It wasn’t the Afghan war. Certainly not alone. Its more complicated.
While continues to damage international relationships, once he is gone, things will change and they have to be for the better, regardless of who replaces him. The sooner the better as he is in the process of blowing himself up with childish and boarish behavior.
OK it’s time to start hashing out how a post-American hegemonic world will look. Let’s start with our old bugaboo — $US as reserve currency. Can the US sustain a reserve currency without being the global hegemon? Will China finally grow up and fulfill the missing prerequisites for a reserve currency? How long would it take to replace the $US? Is it not happening already? If not China, then who? And what would a $US reserve currency look like without an all-powerful military and a world willing to purchase USTs to support it?
“Will China finally grow up and fulfill the missing prerequisites for a reserve currency?”
No
“ If not China, then who?”
No one
The rest unknown
Gold and silver, insidious one
How true & one could argue that Trump has severely weakened or even totally undermined U.S. dominance of the world. Sabotaging multilateralism, losing international trust, damaging global standing, causing global economic disruption, deserting global leadership roles & institutions, fostering isolationism in the name of America First – all actions with end results that erode America’s previous dominant standing in the world & leave previous rivals to fill the gap (China, Russia e.g.). The potential end state of all this for us? A riskier survival, de-dollarization, diminished American economic tools, greatly reduced clout, reduction in security, etc. A very timely article Mish.
The US (deep state) is resolutely set on extinguishing multilateralism and being the uncontested global hegemon. They are willing to take the globe down with them.
The game plan is to control the world by controlling all (energy) shipping routes.
The game plan evolves and adapts, but it is not off.
Trump is just taking a pause because of November.
Substitute ‘Israel’ for ‘US’ and you have a solid synopsis.
Thanks
Nuttyyahoo just posted this on social media: “Israel under my leadership will continue to fight Iran’s terror regime and its proxies, unlike Erdogan who accommodates them and massacred his own Kurdish citizens.”
We need to ditch the psychotic religious cultists in Tel Aviv.
Like any other sociopath, Netanyahu only cares about God when He can be weaponized.
Bibi has a strong personal interest in wrecking the cease fire. Subsequent to the announcement of the cease fire, Israel suspended its state of war emergency. One consequence of that is the resumption of Bibi’s corruption trial beginning next week.
Short of threatening to halt the flow of money, weapons and diplomatic cover, I don’t see hot Trump can control Netanyahu. Does Trump have the cajones?
“With the lifting of the state of emergency and the return of the judicial system to work, hearings will resume as usual,” a statement from the Israeli courts said.
https://thecradle.co/articles/netanyahu-corruption-trial-to-resume-as-israel-lifts-war-emergency
So what you’re saying is he’s finally done what most wanted the US to do? Leave the middle east to it’s own demise? go ti.
Yes troll, in addition Trump relinquished control of the strait, sent diesel prices to a near record, Sent inflation spiraling higher, and did all of this by starting a stupid war, after pledging no more wars.
Is that what you are saying?
Probably not or you would have said it.
Would you look at that, Sy’s back!
What are you on about? Own demise?
Israel is a US project, a franchise, a corporate branch office.
Without Anglo-American intervention, there would be no Israel, and none of the wars we have witnessed would have ever happened.
There are hundreds of religious, ethnic, and language communities which have survived side by side up until Westerners go into play. Many of them have now been extinguished, almost extinguished, or endangered.
The last battle between Shia and Sunni was in 680 (Kerbala), 70 died.
Your history is wrong, as is your analysis. Israel was a British project long before the current situation with the US. Look up the Balfour Declaration of November, 1917.
Long debated has been whether Israel is a puppet of the US, or USA a puppet of Israel? Events since October, 2023 should put that question to death. When Israel’s PM says “jump,” POTUS asks “How high?“
Did you not catch ‘Anglo-American’ ?
Since 1948, nothing has happened there without American support.
Bring back the Brits and French with their surveyor wheels.
according to Trumps truth social Two U.S. Warships Pass Through Strait Of Hormuz…
I doubt it, but if true, now they’ve given Iran two targets to demonstrate their capability if negotiations fail OR they could demand payment in Yuan to allow passage back out of the Persian Gulf.
Doubt that.
I believe so
Perhaps USN boats bottled up in the Gulf after the outbreak of the 40-day war?
Iran wants to control the flow of oil. Couple us ships are not the goal. Might even be a trap.
What does it matter? The ones who are in control of whether oil goes through the strait are the shippers and their insurance companies. And until they are 100% sure of the safety, I doubt any tankers other than Irans/Chinas will sail through.
heading in or heading out???
According to NYT, it is true that two US destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz today. They had been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war, and the US wanted to get these assets out now that there is a window of opportunity. They did not use the Iranian “safe corridors” on either side of Larak Island, nor the newly proposed route that hugs the shore of Oman. Supposedly they went through the Iranian exclusionary zone that covers most of the middle of the strait where the previous shipping lanes were, and where the mines may be. So we have two highly mobile destroyers with sonar accompanied by a dedicated survellance plane circling overhead searching for mines plus underwater drones searching for mines. Compare that to a low mobility VLCC with no sonar or mine detection trying to do the same passage. The insurers aren’t fooled, coverage prices have remained sky high. The administration says this is the start of mine clearing, but its just more empty words from the administration. Shippers don’t believe the administration–the three tankers that transitted outbound today all used the Iranian corridor North of Larak. No one is saying, but they probably paid a fee.
A destroyer displacing 31 feet of draft is not a VLCC displacing 72 feet.
I have heard so many different things about what happened to those ships…
Yep, it’s fog of war.
Tried to, but the obliterated Iranian navy made them turn around.