It’s only a matter of time before Trump waves the white flag. 
Deal Rumors Are Flying Again
The New York Times reports U.S. and Iran Move Toward Agreement to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. officials are closing in on an agreement with Iran that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while the two countries negotiate President Trump’s demands for an end to Iran’s nuclear program, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of the discussions.
The emerging “memorandum of understanding” still needs approval from President Trump, and Iran has not yet confirmed any commitments.
Vice President JD Vance told reporters on Thursday that the two sides were “very close” to an agreement, but were still negotiating over the precise language and larger questions about Iran’s nuclear program.
“It’s hard to say exactly when or if the president is going to sign” the agreement, he said. He added: “I can’t guarantee that we’re going to get there.”
White House officials provided only a vague outline of what the negotiating teams had agreed to — at least preliminarily. But under the framework, the Iranians would see economic relief phased in as progress is made in the negotiations and a substantive deal is reached.
Under the U.S. understanding of the memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately, one of the officials said, but the U.S. military blockade there would stay in place. The blockade would be reduced in proportion to how much prewar ship traffic is restored by Iran, the official added. The idea is to incentivize Iran to quickly remove mines that it laid throughout the strait and allow U.S. officials to assess whether the waterway is safer to cross.
If an agreement works out, it could essentially return the United States and Iran to the status quo before Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel, acting in concert, began 38 days of bombing, followed by seven weeks of cease-fire.
For once it appears someone in the administration is giving themselves breathing room in their statements.
Cash to Iran
Mr. Trump has told advisers he will not sign off on any deal in which the United States can be said to be giving direct cash payments to Iran. One U.S. official described this as a “public relations” challenge, acknowledging that some form of financial relief would be required for Iran. Mr. Trump has attacked President Barack Obama for years over sending “pallets of cash” to Iran to settle a decades-old financial dispute, timed after Mr. Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal.
Given that political reality, Mr. Trump’s team has been developing ideas that would involve other countries, including the Qataris, releasing funds to the Iranians — so that the U.S. could say it did not replenish the coffers of Iran’s regime. But it is not clear whether that political sleight-of-hand would quiet the many critics who are already noting that while Mr. Obama shipped $1.7 billion to Iran, Mr. Trump is looking at potentially unfreezing many times that amount.
Another measure under discussion would ease Iran’s economic strain by lifting the freeze on some Iranian funds held in Qatar, allowing the money to be spent on medicine and feedstock for Tehran. Qatar would then turn those items over to Iran, according to one of the officials.
For days now, Mr. Trump and his aides have been claiming a preliminary agreement was near. Then the administration received word from mediators on Wednesday night that Iran was comfortable with the latest version of the memorandum of understanding, one of the U.S. officials said.
No Missile Discussion
There is no discussion of Iran’s missile program in the current framework. The United States has said it wants to limit the Iranian program in size and scope. The memorandum of understanding also sidesteps all the central questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear activities, leaving them for later negotiations. Key among them is whether Iran will continue to enrich uranium. Mr. Trump long insisted it could not, though he indicated to reporters on Air Force One as he returned from China earlier this month that he was willing to agree to a 20-year suspension on nuclear enrichment by Iran, rather than a permanent ban.
A critical issue — to be negotiated later — is how to dispose of the near-bomb-grade uranium and the 10 other tons of lower-enriched fuel.
Obama vs Trump
- Assuming these details are in the ballpark, the proposal is to go back to February 27 , 2026 and start all over except we are going to give Iran piles of cash, as in $300 billion.
- The Obama administration released $1.7 billion to Iran in January 2016. This total was delivered entirely in foreign cash banknotes via unmarked cargo planes.
Who Wants a Deal?
Trump is desperate for a deal.
We show that by bringing up the topic every day.
A Strong Disagreement
Deep Dive Statements
- How do these people not get it? There is a NO deal that Iran likes that the US can live with.
- Iran is in the position of advantage and greatest leverage. THERE IS NO PLAN THAT’S GOOD FOR OUR SIDE THAT IRAN WILL AGREE TO.
Statement Pair #1 is false.
Statement Pair # 2 is accurate.
We can correct pair #1 as follows. There is a NO deal that Iran likes that the US can live with will like.
All of these deal talks for about 10 days revolve around the above correction.
Trump, not Iran is desperate for a deal. But Netanyahu, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham and possibly other war hawks keep interfering.
At a minimum, those three do not want a deal.
Question of the Day
Q: Mish why do you think there will be a deal?
A: The oil markets act like it and Trump needs an economic victory.
The Big Threat to Surrender
Musical Tribute
As I type, West Texas Intermediate is down again to $87.93. Brent is down to $91.97.
This is not like the action a few weeks ago, with wild price swings in both directions.
This is the market saying it believes Trump will surrender. So do I.
It’s only a matter of time and pain. Iran’s pain is nearly unlimited. Trump’s isn’t.
Another day and other 10+ mln of barrels not reaching the market…
From Al-Jazeera:
An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader and a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Mohsen Rezaei, said today that Trump is “betraying diplomacy for the third time”.
“By continuing the naval blockade and making excessive demands in negotiations, he has once again proven that he is not inclined toward negotiation and is pursuing other objectives,” he wrote in a post on X
Those objectives being “Running his fat mouth about how awesome he is.”
In the next few weeks I expect another announcement of additional SPR releases from around the world. We are getting close to the bottom of commercial storage. The CEO of Exxon says 3-4 weeks. Then $150 oil.
Another possibility: A partial “deal” with Iran. The US will release some of Iran’s frozen accounts in exchange for Iran allowing some or all of the trapped tankers (including Iranian tankers) to exit the Persian Gulf. There is still an estimated 175 mb of oil on those tankers. Enough to make up for two weeks of lost Persian Gulf production. Of course it will still take 2-6 weeks for those tankers to reach their destinations.
A third possiblity: A deal with China to release some of their massive SPR.
Or Trump could continue to dither and let global oil shortages happen and prices skyrocket.
The US has 365 mln barrels in SPR. They can not go below 180mln. It means 185mpn (max). So it is 18 days (max). I can not see China helping they already restricted export. The second option would be a political bomb for the administration…
Yep. Another draw down in global SPRs (not just US) will leave them at essentially bottom level, and unable to draw more. For example, Japan has drawn down from 350 to 260.
Depending on the source, China has already drawn down from 1500 to 1300 because they have reduced imports from 11 mbpd in Feb, to 9 in March, 7 in April and 5 in May. The primary reason for this is to benefit China. They like to buy at low prices and tend to stop buying at high prices. The fact that this is also helping the world by currently reducing global demand by 6 mbpd is secondary. But I am sure that they will use this as a bargaining chip when negotiating trade with the US.
The stake is not the terms of surrender to Iran, rather the terms of the end of empire.
The US reserved the right to sail anywhere it wished except close to Russia and China, but because of abject stupidity and gratuitous aggressiveness, it revealed itself to be a paper tiger, which was previously only muted.
Worse could happen if this blatant attack would lead to global depression.
How will the ending of the war in Iran be impacted by Israel’s ongoing war with Hezbollah in Lebanon?
tweet from Trump…
“Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency has cited informed sources as dismissing Trump’s latest statement about conditions for a potential Iran deal as a “mix of truth and lies”.
In his recent Truth Social post, the unnamed sources said Trump distorted key elements of the draft agreement in an attempt to claim a “fake victory”.
Specifically, the sources said Trump’s assertion that Iran’s enriched materiel would be destroyed is “fundamentally baseless”, and that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz without charging fees is also not reflected in the draft agreement.
The sources added that Trump failed to mention other important provisions of the draft deal, including the release of billions of dollars of Iranian assets and a full ceasefire in Lebanon.
Iran seems intent on denying Trump any ability to save face, which is hilarious.
And…none of those things will happen. Why does he bother?
Because… MAGA!
The MAGA anthem:
Come with me
and you’ll be
in a world of pure imagination…
Now where’s my award?
I’ll tell you what, that ain’t a lake of chocolate!
Agustus! Noooooo!
You get nothing! You lose! Good day, sir!
Because he has to keep Israel happy lest someone “find” what looks like the unexpurgated Epstein Files.
Watch Iran extend one, maybe 2 middle fingers in response.
God, this man is a dipshit.
And so they have, but rather politely:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/29/iran-war-live-tehran-trump-yet-to-comment-on-60-day-truce-extension-plan
Don’t be fooled by the URL… read the article and link to the demands.
Qatar media is peddling slightly less happy clappy horseshit than our media is.
tnx for the link
Israel is pressing the US to restart heavy airstrikes on Iran that would involve the targeted killing of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (one of Iran’s most effective negotiators) and attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure.
https://capitalandempire.com/p/exclusive-israel-privately-pressing-assassination-resume-war
Good article in link, it reads, “Israel doesn’t think the world will suffer if oil infra is obliterated but Israel willing to sacrifice the rest of the world to make it happen.”
Absolute insanity.
Israel delenda est.
Goyim don’t matter… and all the non-Israeli Jews are supposed to move there and settle on Palestinian and Lebanese land, or they get kicked out of the club to suffer with the Goyim.
“Free land, how can they resist, and if they do, they aren’t real Jews”, goes the thinking.
Trump now says that he will end the Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Markets rising and oil declining in response
Trump caving will only embolden Iran. Just wait and watch Iran slowly ratchet up the demands.
Just ordered a fresh case of Kirkland Popcorn to watch the show.
Very possible Trump is just trying to ensure the stock markets close the week up
sadly, I agree.
I don’t doubt he will… but when? Two weeks?
Trump will continue to flounder while his administration talks about imaginary negotiations until he is somehow removed from office.
In the meantime, the US may sustain a few more hits to the head by reality.as the maelstrom of events drags everyone along.
But muh F350 is THIRSTY!
I just saw this quote from Martin Jay and needed to share:
“Watching Trump negotiate with the Iranians is like watching a retired circus clown fall off his one-wheeled bike while the crowd jeers him on for his pathetic efforts.”
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/05/29/art-deal-author-has-no-clue-about-how-make-deal/
Too bad they took down Sora… that would have been a great prompt for a short video.
He can’t even keep his wig on straight anymore, and the facepaint has melted.
He is most effective when napping.
Maybe… he’s pretty good at filling his trousers too though.
So they have plutonium now? Even 100% pure uranium does not mean you have anything close to a bomb.
You can use Uranium 235 to make a nuclear bomb. You need it to be enriched to about 90%, something Iran has never done. Plutonium is a better material because you don’t need as much, meaning smaller warheads and less expensive deployment.
They don’t need a nuke. They have Hormuz. Nukes have only strategic value, and run the risk of getting you nuked back if you strike first, or preemptively if somebody gets scared of your nuke.
It’s a stupid game we play because we’re greedy, frightened little monkeys.
LOL. Yes. What does NO mean, and when is NO really saying yes.
Sure. Israel can be brought to heel so easily. Israel is a 100% American branch office and would fade so quickly if America pulled its hands off.
Iran should make it easier for America to pretend a deal is great by first making a few demands which they can later “concede”.
Israel has The Files, and I am sure plenty more in addition to The Complete And Unedited Jeffrey Epstein Home Video Library.
“Wag The Dog”
I gotta give Trumpstien credit for trying to spare the world from viewing a trove of utterly repulsive video, starring him and a rotating cast of children.
Trump at 5:00 PM — “No President has done this. We got Iran to talk nukes. Maybe even give them up. This is First time ever.”
Obama at 6:00 PM — “Did it already. No missiles fired. Moved 97% of their enriched uranium out. We didn’t have to kill a whole bunch of people or shut down the Strait of Hormuz like you.”
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Friday that “No action will be taken before the other side acts” as the U.S. and Iran are trying to reach a deal to end the conflict.
“We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles; in negotiations, we merely make them understand,” Ghalibaf wrote in a message on X.
“We have no trust in guarantees or words — only actions are the measure. No action will be taken before the other side acts,” he continued. “The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after.”
But JoJo keeps telling us that Iran is on their knees, broke, starving, rioting, de-armed and running scared. How can he be so wrong?
You mean the Fox News parrot?
As he is paid to. Him and Stu might even be the same person.
He is BiBi in JoJo clothing
Number of times I have seen Iran saying they want or need a deal: Zero
Number of times I have seen US politicians saying Iran is desperate for a deal: Numerous times per day
They are repeating lies about Iran because most Americans are either stupid enough or don’t care to avoid being fooled.
excellent comment. 1-star Mishelin award granted.
But JoJo keeps telling us that Iran is on their knees, broke, starving, rioting, de-armed and running scared. How can he be so wrong?
Pro Tip: to boost your Mishelin ratings add link to musical tribute when possible and pertinent.
Jojo is telling us what hes paid to.
Guess we will need to wait till end of Shabbat to hear from him.
He can’t dictate to his Goyboy? Their god is pretty easy to trick with stuff like that.
Nobody would pay JoJo for anything, especially such pathetic trolling.
They are stupid people hiring stupid people. His employers think he’s making awesome points, and we’ll all come around any minute now and vote republicans into congress with tears in our eyes.
“Pro Tip” LOL!
Neither Obama nor Trump did or will send money to Iran, but just return what’s rightfully Iran’s and stolen by the US. But, unlike Obama, Trump will also have to pay war reparations to Iran.
… and do the Truffle Shuffle every night on national TV until the end of his term.
Trumpstien done picked a fight with somebody that isn’t weak.
Trump should let Iran have the tollbooth and then the Arab countries can build more pipelines. Easy peazy
“There is a NO deal that Iran likes that the US can live with.”
Even if that were false, there is no deal that Iran can make that Israel will live with, and Israel has The Files.
Nobody cares what Americans think or like or want. Trump has said so, point blank.
Shouldn’t oil stocks be flying with the shortage we are weeks away from?
Yes but they are releasing SPR after shorting crude to suppress price and make short sale profits for as long as possible before the Kraken is released upon us all.
Trump can be both desperate for a deal, and end up not getting one. I don’t think there can be one, because any deal will result in a world-wide recognition of a massive loss for Trump and the US. My prediction is Trump will just quietly inform the Navy to end its interdictions of shipping through the Strait, and Iran will start charging tolls. The US will stop bombing Iran, so the ceasefire will hold. And that’s how this thing ends. The question is whether Trump gets there before or after we hit “tank bottoms” and prices skyrocket. I think after, because Trump isn’t bright enough to understand the consequences of his actions. But he needs a bigger distraction for his Fox News crowd in the meantime. Maybe Cuba, that way he can say he gloriously ended the Soviet Union or something for all the 80 year olds who watch Fox News.
He doesn’t care about the consequences for anyone else, and he thinks he’s untouchable.
Tick-Tock
We have moved past the point of “easy recovery” and into the realm of “long term pain”
Trump cannot stop Israel because he is hopelessly compromised by them. He also cannot resist the idea of lawn-mower “cut the grass every week” type attacks.
A MOA is really meaningless because it doesn’t fix those two problems.
The world can only hope he switches his focus to Greenland and Cuba–meaningless goals to the rest of the world
The US is a dying empire, twisting in the winds of history. The future is demographic, Muslims, Asians and probably Indians. The US pretends to be in charge but it’s dying under its own weight. I’m 81 and I hope I go before the final death rattle. It won’t be pretty!
people in moscow, madrid and lisbon and london……..much better off after their empires croaked………..same will be true of nyc and la and burbs
The entire world is working towards a demographic death spiral. Starts in E. Asia, followed by Europe and N. America. But after that, it’ beginning in S. America, India, the Middle East, S.E. Asia and now even most of Africa. This is what happens when you give young women the power to control their pregnancies AND don’t give young men the means to be an attractive mate.
I’m not a what if guy or an idealist. The US and the West would be much more sustainable with less debt and arrogance. Think the British empire, that is where we are going, only worse given our self-importance and debt load.
Sad thing is, we used to have something to be arrogant about, but decades of relentlessly advancing stupidity have hollowed that something out to a very thin shell that already has a few holes.
You mean the means to support the child?
To them, a child is a precious life until it comes out of the womb. Then it becomes either a slave or a parasite. Sometimes they even call the slaves parasites because they’ll die on you if you don’t feed them.
If only MAGATS knew how free they really are.
All started out with Margit Sanger’s Planned Parenthood, 1920s or so. At the time with no contraception working class women often had 4+ kids and several self-abortions on top. So ok at the time but definitely over the top now. BTW Eugenics was a rage of the time and the manual was passed on from the US to Nazi Germany
Iran should just come out and declare “Our war aim is regime change in Washington DC.” Because that is what will happen if President Trump doesn’t wave the white flag now. Fuel prices and economic malaise will ensure Democrat victory in November followed swiftly by his impeachment & conviction followed by President Vance’s impeachment & conviction. The regime of President Hakeem Jeffries will be the consequence of this war crime.
Why would they declare it? The stupids among us have not realized it, which makes it more likely Iran’s strategy will succeed. Informing us of their patently obvious strategy seems ill-advised, why inform idiots?
one can only hope
Congress has no guns, or any other means to enforce an impeachment beyond the executive branch, which Piggy controls.
Exxon reporting oil levels dangerously low. Didn’t I mention it would be a cruel summer?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/oil-inventory-exxon-strait-hormuz-iran-war.html
Exxon Mobil warned Thursday that oil inventories will fall to record low levels in coming weeks, forcing prices to spike and curbing demand.
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” said Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman at a conference hosted by Bernstein in New York.
These are strange times, on the one hand, Trumprael tell us Iran is a dangerous enemy intent on destroying the US and must be stopped at all costs. On the other hand, Trump begs Iran for a deal to let oil flow through the Strait and will pay handsomely ($300 billion?) to let it happen.
$300 billion is a lot of money for drones, nuclear material and other goodies so which is it? Too dangerous but not dangerous enough for $300 billion?
$300BB won’t be enough for drones, just as $50BB was too much to spend educating American citizens.
If they get the money, I hope they use it to stomp Israel like a bug.
This news of a “deal” that Trump needs to approve is being reported by Barak Ravid of the Trump propaganda rag Axios. This is the same reporter who claimed that a deal had been reached weeks ago. We all know that turned out to be BS.
There won’t be a deal until Isreal gets what it wants. Trump is their puppet.
“There won’t be a deal until Isreal gets what it wants.”
Like the fascists and vandals they are, Israel will be satisfied with nothing less than the complete destruction of Iran.
Israel is all about Final Solutions.
Someone put it thusly: “The Holocaust is the real religion of Israel”.
My suggestion is that the whole idea that a “deal” is needed is nonsense. This is a construct of western thought and norms. Jumping up and down everytine Trump farts out some deal BS is silly
The Iranians are clearly just stretching this out for as long as possible, because its their best course of action.
Insert your favorite theory here ———— for why they are doing it
But the bottom line is that after 50 years of absorbing US bullying, suffering alone economically, and the last year of real destruction in their country, they are not going to “make a deal” after 3 months of Trumps adventures
Even if they sign some bullshit MOU they will slow roll every detail while Trump and America suffers – thats what they want at the end of the day. Life in Iran already sucks, so not much more to lose for them
and while they restock and improve their defence.
This is a good point and worth absorbing. Really changes your perspective if you consider that the way the narrative is framed is just inaccurate to begin with.
A DNC talking point, which is another way of saying either delusional or simply a gas lighting mumbling head. Sad.
What are you talking about? What’s a DNC talking point? What or who is a gaslighting mumbling head? What data do you have to inform everyone?
You’re assuming he is capable of turning that into an actual intellectual point. Dangerous.
Probably a bot
There will be no reply. Piggies just blurt stuff and dissolve into a puddle of tears.
Aww, poor boo boo…. don’t cry. Daddy Pig will always be there for you, and cares deeply about your personal well being!
Mish, love your economic analysis long time, but it seems to me that you are both right here, and that you may be misinterpreting what Danny Davis is saying.
You are correct that Trump wants a deal bad and will eventually do a deal. DD is right that whatever less than perfect deal Trump agrees to, the opposing side(s), which includes Netanyahu and the Zionists, Christian fundamentalist types like Cruz, and closet homosexual or kiddy diddler Linda Graham, will not consider it acceptable long term and will immediately start to undermine it and try to drive us back to war, either before Trump’s term ends or after.
I doubt we’ll ever get to a deal in place before Netanyahu, Graham & Co. sabotage it.
It has always been about epstein
This is why you don’t elect child rapers.
President Trump has yet to sign off on the cease fire, because if he does, then he must seek the approval of Congress for authorization to do so again moving forward (some exceptions exist). The Republicans know that the Dems will tie Trumps hands and force the end of the conflict, but with zero concessions and the Dems would probably have the U.S. pay Billions for damages and rebuilding of infrastructure. They may even get to keep the dust too… Not happening. I doubt Trump will agree to handing over cash as well, but it’s certainly happened in the past, so we shall see…
The Republicans control both houses of Congress. He can do this without any Democratic input.
I do not think he would get the needed votes to start the war again. If I am wrong, then good, but why take the chance? Handcuff Trump at this point, and this all turns into a potential nightmare scenario for everybody! It already is, but could get a whole lot worse on a massive scale worldwide.
…and monkeys could fly out of your butt.
As always I don’t understand the market…almost 1 billion of barrels did not reach the market. If we account that the market was 2mln oversupplied we have lost 800mln barrels. Even if we have a deal today most of the tanker owners will think twice before sending again their boats through the strait. On top of that we have damages on the plants…and the WTI is pricing at 88$…..
Because it’s not a real market. By now, none of them are.
The market is flooded with reserve supply, to end in about 3-4 weeks
Two weeks according to Exxon. See my post above.
That would explain Trump starting to freak out now
He has a stark choice: Let the global economy go down in flames, or let Israel leak videos of him raping children.
The first option will have zero impact on his comfortable life. What do you think he’ll choose?
Paper price is $87/93 CL/BZ
Try taking delivery in Asia for less than $130
Bangladesh already has 4 hour gas lines. It always starts with the poors.
so many things this administration did no think thru: Troops’ phones gave away location data to foreign adversaries
https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/05/28/troops-phones-leaked-location-data-to-foreign-adversaries/5248108
holy smokes, that is a staggeringly stupid oversight
Anything digital with the word “smart” attached is far more vulnerable and stupid than what it replaced. And the deepest nexus of stupidity is the uncritical doglike humans who adopted it. The “gee whiz” factor has astonished me ever since they revised their lives overnight, a couple decades ago.
People this dumb should NOT have weapons.
Blah, blah, blah. Why not wait to shovel your criticism until you know the actual details of the deal? Assuming there is one.
This is a major problem across modern media, whether MSM, print, TV or blogs. STOP frontrunning the news and economic statistics!
What if questions and what might happen statements are of no real use to readers, although I guess they fill the empty space and allow advertising to be shown.
For some reason, your comment is Unhidden today – I’ve ignored your regular rubbish for months now – and you actually make sense. There is indeed far too much commentary about so little change that it’s a pain to sort through the worthwhile and the filler.
I suspect the downvotes are from the people who have never noticed the Hide button and simply downvote you without reading.
I never thought you could earn an upvote but but here’s mine. You earned it by explaining your view, rather than criticizing and insulting others. If you can keep that up, I may pay some attention.
“ Assuming there is one.”
I assume there will be no long term lasting deal until Iran gets most of what they want. The US will keep talking a deal, but we will never be able to negotiate one that is favorable for us, so the impasse remains. The 13 mbpd oil production cut will continue. Oil prices will head much higher. The global economy will suffer.
We have had blizzards of supposed deal points tossed out for months. The boy who cried wolf is apt.
Disagree Mr Mish. (t)Rump wouldn’t budge on a Ukraine deal and Putins root cause issues in the negotiation were never addressed. Orange ass walked away. That war goes on and is intensifying. Same with Iran. And we know yahoonettan and the jew fan club will never agree – just look at the Israel cease fire violations. And you’ve stated, and we know, this orange idiot ripped up the US treaty with Iran (Obama), ripped up his own trade agreements – he won’t honor any agreement regardless!
Agree OB. I think both Mish and Danny Davis are right. Trump may do a deal, but the people pulling his strings will not consider it acceptable long-term.
Ukraine/Putin didn’t have the world economy hostage. You may be perfectly ok in the US right now but gas stations are running out of fuel in places like Australia/NZ/India/Japan. Once those economies start cratering it will domino across the world.
Kiss your 401k & record breaking S&P goodbye once that happens. That’s the endgame Trump is worried about, a totally collapsing stock market and it will happen sometime this year I think even if we had a deal today. Too much damage has been done already.
The other problem will be soaring inflation and you will feel that right away. Heck you are feeling it now, go take a look at PCE.
Iran denies finalizing 60-day nuclear deal with U.S., calls reports inaccurate
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/iran-denies-finalizing-60-day-nuclear-deal-with-us-calls-reports-inaccurate-3220864
Seems like Trump has been negotiating with himself again. Nothing new.
Even if Trump wants to surrender, I don’t think he can (yet) give Iran what it demands. Can he get Israel to stop the killing in Lebanon and get out of there? Can he remove all US bases from the region? No to both. Therefore there will be no deal anytime soon. Trump started this whole shit show and it’s beyond his control now. His willingness to fold is insufficient. It will take a lot more economic carnage before the entire US defense and foreign policy establishment will be willing to rein in Israel and depart the region.
IS cannot be reigned in. Only hope is it will self-destruct. As this is unlikely also there will be no change until someone escalates to get things moving again, most certainly to the worse.
This seems right to me as well
Iran has it easy. “Never interfere with the enemy while he is in the process of making a mistake.”. Of course it’s a waiting game.
The most important critical question is :
Has Trump got the green light from BB?
BB, the Bad News Jew™
“Trump is desperate for a deal.
We show that by bringing up the topic every day.”
Let me try the ‘its true because I said it’ technique:
Mish’s writings have gotten indescribably worse over the years.
We show that by bringing up the topic every day.
See? I can write a blog too!
So why are you reading it then?
If you started a Blog, you would have 0 readers besides yourself, because you make no coherent points I can see.
Why are you so butt hurt? Don’t bend over in the shower so often, keep ya eyes open, ears sharp & quit talking nonsense. If ya idol wasn’t sticking his nose in everyone’s business, starting wars & getting his ass kicked, destroying peoples livelihoods, chatting shit every day, humiliating himself & his country, spending money the country doesn’t have & shitting his pants I doubt Mish will have any material to write about him.
Rule: If Bill Effing Kristol is pissed about something, this automatically means it’s good for the rest of the world.
And for the US!
Cushing inventories will be at tank bottoms at 20million today. on 05/15/2026 they stood at 25.8 million, on week 05/22/2026 they stood at 23 million, that’s 2.8 million draw in a week.
Today Friday they will be 05/29/2026 minus 2.8 million & your at 20.2 million, that’s tank bottoms, get ya fuel cuz the sky is the limit for prices.
You live by the sword, you die by the sword. Bye Bye Grifter in Chief.
I read Cushing capacity is some 25M barrels, so 20M cannot be “tank bottom”, more like 2M-5M maybe, which will be reached soon enough anyway
Not true, tank bottoms is 20M, sound a lot but it’s not. You have to look at it as it is, many tanks not 1, so if they got 20 tanks & each holds 5 million, then 1 million in each tank is 20% full. That means all the crap at the bottom of the tank plus low pressure make it unusable.
I just get it from so called experts, I wouldn’t know if The Grifter in Chief & his government were not so corrupt & dishonest forcing me to do the research to find out what was really F’ing going on.
Cushing has around 300 above ground tanks with a combined maximum capacity of around 90 million barrels. The tanks are not all the same; varying in size, shape, and minimum capacity. The average tank max capacity is 0.3 mb (90/300).
Minimum operating capacity varies from 8-12%. So tank bottom level is about 10 mb. However, operations begin to suffer when levels drop below 20 mb as you suggest.
Cushing is our largest oil storage facility at 90 mb. We gave total commercial oil storage of around 500 mb.
In addition, we have refined products storage of around 700 mb.
Q: Mish why do you think there will be a deal?
A: The oil markets act like it and Trump needs an economic victory.
The behavior of the oil market is intriguing. I think they are miscalculating badly. Iran has found the leverage to free themselves of decades of bullying–the recent totally unprovoked attack and massive sucker-punch assassinations necessarily enraging to them. They aren’t going to settle for anything the Neocons who rule DC can stomach. Trump is Israel’s bitch and he is now over his head.
Decades of bullying and isolation means decades of forming alliances and drawing up survival plans including options B, C and D. These people are well-read and educated. Compare that with USIS where no plan is visible except unconditional hate and will to destroy (or at least threatening the same) and there you have the answer which civilization will still be around 50 years from now.
and on the home front: Trump’s approval plunges among his White working-class baseTrump sees sharp drop in approval among White working-class voters – The Washington Post
Trump knows full well that if The Files were ever made public, then he’d be in real trouble, and not just poor polling numbers.
And you can bet your bottom shekel that the Files are not the only source of blackmail material in Israeli hands, and that they contain many interesting things which many prominent people, Team R And Team D, would just as soon keep secret.
Iran continues to play this beautifully. 7 weeks of semi-ceasefire, while they work on the “wording” of a deal to then begin 60 days of negotiations for the nth time. Trump is desperate to get out of this mess, and Iran is not going to let him out till he gives them most of what they want.
I’m waiting to see who will be first to actually say that they will agree to the wording of the MOU to begin negotiations. Trump seems afraid to agree to it, for fear of Iran leaving him in the lurch. Iran, clever as ever, isn’t saying anything. I’m guessing that this dance will continue for several more days.
Meanwhile, every day that passes, means another 13 mb of lost oil production in the Persian Gulf area.
Neil Chapman, of Exxon Mobil, says that we only have about 3-4 weeks left before reserves run down so much that oil prices will spike to $150+. Higher oil prices will only provide more leverage for Iran. It is in their best interest to delay as long as possible to get more leverage.
Note that even under a best case scenario, there is no way to prevent reserves from running down for the next 4 weeks. We will see if Chapman’s prediction is accurate.
Trump is stupid enough to delay the opening of Hormuz by double blockage of Strait.
And ceasefire which is not solving anything but delaying the opening.
The problem is rising and nearing the critical stage.
Iran loves it. No war but pressure is mounting on the whole world including US.
Iran might surrender is delusional thinking.
Surrender = suicide
Why should anyone in their right mind negotiate with notorious liars who repeatedly assassinated their high level negotiators? Other than bluffing of course.
What would you suggest is the alternative to negotiating?
There is no alternative. The lack of trust is why Iran is demanding and will continue to demand concrete actions from the US in any deal. They are now saying they will take no action under a deal until the US first takes action. And they will leave the nuclear discussions for later.
That is what the US must sign up for if they want a deal. Will they do it? Never underestimate the power of the Israeli lobby. We will find out how much control of the US government they still have.
We still don’t know whether Iran is insisting that Lebanon be part of the deal. Israel continues to intensify its actions in Lebanon. Netanyahu was rewarded for his aggression this week by having his corruption hearing again postponed.
Sums it up pretty well.
Once trust is gone – that’s it. One way street.
Why is trust in Rockefeller Medicine at rock bottom lows? Because they lied and continue to lie while knowingly killing patients who used to trust them. Doesn’t go for everything of course, but certainly goes for oncology and vaccinations just as 2 examples.
The point of assassinating leaders is to make sure that no deal is possible.
I bet there will be no deal at all, the oil market if falling because it’s being overwhelmed by 10 million barrels of dumping every week. 2 million barrels a day being dumped in markets in a short period when volume is low.
As far as I can see it’s all illusion & that illusion is about to end. Iran obviously know this, they will stretch it out & demand everything they deserve as winner.
This is why The Grifter in Chief keeps exploding in rage & threatening.
Soon the spr will be so depleted the dumping will stop & demand hasn’t fallen, oil will skyrocket, isn’t it correct that the spr cannot fall below a certain level with the caverns falling in on themselves from the lack of pressure.
There is no way in the world he will be able to walk away with all the war mongers biting at his ankles & how compromised he is.
One last point is his inability to come to terms with a record worse than a black man.
Racism is expensive.
Sure is pal, so is hubris, arrogance, stupidity & delusions of grandeur. That’s why 30% of the national debt got his name on it.
“One last point is his inability to come to terms with a record worse than a black man.”
Why are so many people on the Left always so focused, almost obsessed with skin color? Like Trump, Hate Trump, but to suggest that he is racist is pointless and baseless. I’ve always said there are 2 groups of people hyper focused on Race, White Supremists and allot of Liberals.
The Americans who got the USA into a war because they think Jeffrey Epstein is racially “God’s Chosen Person” must be the white supremacists.
While racists and wokesters have a lot in common, Trump himself sure seems fixated on Obama.
You assume a damn lot with that propagandised mind of yours. Who said I’m left? Left, right, centre? Of what. That statement is a simple one, the man is a fascist supremacist with a hatred for darker skinned people, he also has a hatred for commoners, the poor.
You blond defence of a loser makes you pretty dumb, assuming & you know full well it’s an accurate statement of fact.
“pointless and baseless” Maybe but true of father and son. Trumps have always been raciest, that’s been proven over and over. From the father not renting to persons of color and Trumps treatment of the five blacks that did not attack the jogger and Obama’s birth certificate their hatred of “the other”, is proven.
If i recall correctly. Obama released Iranian funds frozen for whatever reason.
As part of the deal to limit irans nuclear ambitions. You know the one they were following. That trump ripped apart.
Seems a lot better of a deal than trumps plans.
It seems to me trump has a thing for obama. Well his success anyway. Look at all of obamas programs he has dismantled or tried to just to replace them with his version of the same thing. But worse. Oh yeah dont forget the peace prize.
Well see where it goes. Trump does not care about other people. He does care about how other people see him. In this case as weak. Well see.
Oh yeah plus he has to keep the plates spinning so people cant focus on the epstien files.
Pedos and grifters
Couldn’t agree more re the Obama hangup – is it a race thing maybe?
I continue to be surprised that no matter how many times taco lies, misleads and commits criminal activites, his remaining followers refuse to admit the truth.
They are low IQ morons, obviously
“Deplorables” perhaps? That quip helped cost Clinton the 2016 election.
Yes, they are deplorable. Always been.
The word “cult” comes prominently to mind.
MAGA are as untrustworthy and criminally inclined as their idol.
“his remaining followers refuse to admit the truth” The are in a cult, not hard to understand if you start with the realization that they are mentally defective (not normal) they have a need to be followers at any cost.
Gents, we here to gab or make money?
Exactamundo… so what’s the trade? There are two ways things can easily go in the toilet
vs:
Yes to cash payments, Yes to Lebanon ceasefire (without genocide please), yes to peaceful NPT nuclear enrichment, yes to Iranian “enviro fees” on Hormuz ships, yes to regional peace architecture, no to rebuilding US bases, yes to sanctions removal…
That’s the trade. Being wealthy is the best revenge!
Love the cartoon!
Thanks for the laugh – the article is hilarious.
You could be right, but the wildcard is Trump with his demented state of mind and whether the neocons will convince him he must go on the attack one last time. I do think Trump wants a deal, but he needs to believe he’s going to come out ahead and save his legacy. Tulsi (for all her faults) probably had enough courage to tell him facts he didn’t like and that’s why she’s out. In come Lindsey Graham, Marc Levin and a host of others who will say Iran is teetering on the edge and one more strike can save his legacy.
Personally, I don’t think this can on go much longer. As the SPR drawdown halts and we see shortages, the economic impacts will begin to rapidly accumulate. Also, it will become more difficult to maintain our current military posture in the Middle East. He’ll be advised by some that we must back down, but others will be screaming “DO IT NOW”. Regardless, the pressure to do something will be intense. Trump is not well, and I fear he’ll make the wrong choice. The next month will key.
I wondered about this: it will become more difficult to maintain our current military posture in the Middle East
How long can the military keep up the full throttle ready to pounce stature? One could say till the money runs out but the money seems to be ever flowing.
As long as necessary!
If they can keep the laundry rooms fire-free.
Just imagine the economic impacts that Iran is experiencing! 🤣
Iran is being hurt, but the U.S. has much further to fall, and much more quickly given the debt and leverage built into our financial system.
Let’s suppose you live in a crap shack and someone knocks it down, easy to rebuild , right?
Now suppose you live in a modern multi story mansion, it is knocked down, much harder to rebuild, right?
Iran economy is the crap shack, US economy is the modern mansion, who has the advantage here and why would Iran agree to any deal that was not heavily in their favor?
IMO Trump’s ‘legacy’ will be millions dead from starvation in various parts of the world, due to failed harvests.
and high prices for and low availability of diesel most probably destroying tens of millions of small businesses and livelihoods depending on inexpensive fuel
Outside of the USA diesel is the fuel the world runs on.
SP up another .6% today. His daily deal announcement working as designed. During this alledged piss-poor decision, as I say own-goal, the market has rallied massively. The discounting mechanism is completely broken, as broken as this entire Iran thing except for the massive wealth that has been created.
SP500 +10% since Operation Epic Fury began on 2/28. We used to think that was a good year, now that’s just 2 1/2 months. Wonder what would happen if markets actually went down.
Add it all up, the gulf parasite leaders in the Gulf are getting their money out before their infrastructure is destroyed & they have to leg it to London, New York or Bern.
This money will flow into stocks & bonds. They already got their multimillion dollar mansions ready. Could begin this weekend, they’ll be roasted when yield skyrocket & the stock markets collapse.
All time highs always lead to big crashes in the end, look at the long-term chart, and eventually the market will recover to surpass the previous high. Though that can take a long time, after 1929-1931 crash IIRC the market did not reach the same numeric value until the 1950’s, and decades later than that for inflation adjusted numbers.
So the question is if you can stomach a 10-20+ year down market. Few investors will. The real bottom will be reached when no one wants stocks anymore, the proverbial”blood in the streets” moment, seen in past episodes.
I don’t think todays “investors” are prepared for that, they have always seen the market recover in a short period of time, investors who were around in 1931 are all dead now.
$USOY , $USOI