The answer is Iran’s ability to escalate exceeds that of the US.
Ability to Escalate
Off Limits?
The above chain of posts got me thinking about the initial ceasefire.
It was not generally expected at the time.
What happened?
Iran Drone Attacks Hit Kuwait’s Desalination Plants, Oil Complex
On April 4, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported Iran Drone Attacks Hit Kuwait’s Desalination Plants, Oil Complex
Iranian drone strikes hit two of Kuwait’s power and desalination plants as well as the Shuwaikh oil sector complex in Kuwait City, causing fire and significant damage, the Kuwaiti government said early Sunday.
The attack knocked both the power and desalination plants out of service, according to a joint statement from Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy and the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, or KPC.
No injuries were reported at the plants, or at the Shuwaikh oil sector complex, according to the statement, which said emergency and firefighting teams were responding to the blaze. The Shuwaikh complex, which houses both KPC and the country’s Oil Ministry, has been evacuated, it added.
A separate drone attack also caused extensive damage to the country’s Ministries Complex on Saturday evening, just a few miles away. Kuwait said it was intercepting waves of drones and missiles during the time of the attacks. The latest barrage followed multiple attacks on Kuwait’s oil refineries and its international airport in recent days.
Ceasefire Timeline
On April 7, Trump threatened that “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back”, if Iran did not reach an agreement with the US.
On April 8, the United States and Iran suddenly agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan.
On April 21, Trump announced that the US was extending the ceasefire with Iran pending negotiations, while instructing the naval blockade to remain in place and telling the military to remain prepared to resume fighting. However, Axios reported that Trump does not intend to extend the ceasefire for more than a few days
Ceasefire Still in Place
Despite the truce, skirmishes continue to break out. Both U.S. and Iranian forces have traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side accusing the other of violating the terms.
President Trump continuously insists the ceasefire is officially in place despite describing it as “unbelievably weak” and on “life support” following the rejection of Tehran’s latest peace proposal.
Dependence on Desalinization Plants
- Qatar: Highest dependence. ~61-77% of total water demand; ~99% of drinking water. Produces ~0.7 billion m³ desalinated water annually. aljazeera.com
- Bahrain: ~59-67.5% of total water supply; >90% (often cited up to 100% recently) of drinking water. Small population (~1.6 million) makes it highly vulnerable. csis.org
- Kuwait: ~42-47% of total water; ~90% of drinking/residential water. aljazeera.com
- UAE: ~41-52% of total water; ~42% (some reports higher, up to 80%+ for potable in certain contexts) of drinking water. Major producer (~1.9 billion m³/year); many plants along coasts. aljazeera.com
- Oman: ~31% of total water demand; ~86% of drinking water. csis.org
- Saudi Arabia: Lowest in GCC for total but still critical. ~18-31% of total water demand; ~70% of drinking/municipal water (some reports ~50% of distributed supply). World’s largest producer (~3 billion m³/year desalinated) with thousands of plants; relies more on groundwater overall due to size. csis.org
- Israel: High and growing reliance. ~80-86% of drinkable/potable water from desalination (seawater and brackish); supplies a large share of domestic needs. Five major Mediterranean plants are key; targets include further expansion. Israel excels in efficiency, wastewater recycling (~90%+), and integration. en.wikipedia.org
- Iran: Low dependence. ~3% of drinking water supply overall (concentrated on coasts like Qeshm Island). Faces its own water crisis but relies far more on groundwater/surface sources; less vulnerable regionally but growing interest in expansion. fpif.org
Desalinization is 3 percent of Iran’s drinking water. It’s 70 to 99 percent of drinking water in other Mideast countries.
Iran, not the US has ability to escalate. And Iran has already proven willingness to do so.
Those advocating a military solution in Iran are crazy. The region is no doubt petrified, and it’s running low on defense missiles.
That combination triggered a ceasefire.
Violations Abound
The US and Iran accuse each other of violations.
Realistically, the US is escorting ships through the strait, or trying to, and Iran attacks them. That has been ongoing for days.
After each alleged Iran violation, Trump says the ceasefire is in effect.
Secretary of State, Marco Rubio Secretary denies there is a war.
Rubio Denies there Is a War
Tit for Tat Damage Yesterday
CENTCOM said no hits. That’s OKJ because the war is over and the ceasefire is still on.
A Quiet Way Out?
Which of course leads to this continuing silliness.
I don’t disagree actually. The strait will open as soon as Trump capitulates.
And he will. But we do have the world’s tallest pool.
Cartoon of the Day
Related Posts
June 1, 2026: Exxon Warns of $150 Crude. Here are the Supporting Charts
Global observed crude levels are at record low levels. Implications are ominous.
May 26, 2026: Consumer Credit Stress Is Comparable to the Great Recession
Auto delinquencies are at a new record and credit cards are near record high.
June 2, 2026: Trump’s Economic Director Claims Real Incomes Are Going Up
Let’s do a fact check on the administration’s claim.
June 3, 2026: How the War in Iran Is Contributing to Soaring Food Prices
Fertilizer, diesel, and natural gas all have an impact on food. The impact first shows up in producer prices, then consumer prices.
“ the Shuwaikh oil sector complex in Kuwait City”
There are no oil sector plants in Shuwaikh. This “oil complex” consists of two 20-odd story towers, one is the HQ for the Kuwait Petroleum Co (KPC) who runs all the oil sector state companies, such as KOC, KNPC, PIC, KOTC, etc.
The second tower are the offices of the royal family. There is a sky bridge between the buildings top floors – where the joke is the money carts are pushed.
All the plants are at least 20 kms south of Kuwait City – most near Ahmadhi.
Worth a watch. Good summary where we are and why and how we got there.
McGregor: all for what?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjgYdurDEmA
Oil futures down 4% yet many oil stocks are up or level, I’d say folks are finally catching on to what’s about to happen.
True to form the Orange Moron is doing what he always does when he’s fucked up royally – waiting for someone or something else to blame. Its a standoff where everyone is waiting him out until the pot boils over.
Interesting paradox since now is the time to preempt the coming mess, but no one will because the orange baby will use it to cast blame away from himself
Plan accordingly, when this comes to a head it will be sudden and nasty
The main objective in starting a war with Iran was to close the Straight of Hormuz and keep it that way for as long as it takes for secondary objectives to be achieved. The secondary objectives are get IMEC moving forward at an accelerated pace. Bolster the Board of Peace (Trump is Chairman for life) and get more countries joining. Doing those things will weaken Iran’s power in the region and take the wind out the BRICS sail a tad.
BRICS has nothing to do with any of this
And your theory is conspiratorial nonsense.
Israel talked Trump into this.
Ah, the old ‘conspiracy theorist’ label being trotted out. I never said Israel doesn’t have some of their own agendas.
https://escapekey.substack.com/p/imec-during-a-time-of-war
https://escapekey.substack.com/p/stranded-in-haifa
https://catodezorra.substack.com/p/is-there-a-hidden-reason-the-us-israel
WHY THE IRAN WAR ISN’T WHAT YOU THINK – YouTube
None of that deflects the ridiculous theory the intention was to shut the strait.
Trump was an idiot and a stooge of Israel.
A draw makes him look weak or even losing/gives bibi more time/ epstien files distract/ pride/ gonna use the chaos to steal elections/ putin has dirt/ family profit/ owes apac/ owes big oil/ protecting powerful pedos/general dumb$&@/ listens to war hungry advisors / surrounded by yes men who are afraid to say no/ keeps media from investigating his crimes/
Pick your top 3. And the rest are just benefits.
Trump finally outdid “W” for worst war planning ever. He is painted into his own corner (with all of us joining him). He listens first and last to the recesses of his brain. His “foreign policy” is based on randomly pulling levers just to stamp his brand on things. Stable genius destabilizes world. He may finally defeat the USA for good.
Trump listens first and last to Netanyahu, as Israel has The Files.
He is the worst thing to happen to the USA in a long time. OR the best thing, it just depends on who you’re asking. President Polarization
At least trumpie hasn’t put boots on the ground yet. I’m sure bibi is trying every day to convince him of that.
Trump is channeling Hitler ranting about Germania, the capital of the world, while drooling over his model city.
Trump has lost the war. The problem is he doesn’t know how to bow out gracefully. He can’t stand to lose …, so whatever peace is finally agreed with the Iranians the Trump administration will spin it to make it look like Trump should get the Nobel peace prize … Trump‘s real problem is not with Iranians. It is the Israeli …. And that needs to be resolved before there is a peace in the Middle East.
There is agreement Iran can make that will satisfy Israel.
He can’t lose, period. When has he ever lost? Just ask him.
Mish, why not an opinion yet on California vote counting embarrassment
It takes like a month for the final count to be approved. Until then, it’s all a guess how they will count it. Personally, I would expect a very large Democrat win in any CA. Race.
Sabotaging democracy with your words. Ever hear of evidence and courtrooms?
No because those don’t tell him what he wants to hear.
The U.S./CIA is only good at coups. What happened in 2014 Ukraine? This country has LOST EVERY military conflict since the Korean War. People keep claiming the U.S. has the mightiest military EVVAA. Btw we is also the richest country in the world with $40 maybe 50 trillion of debt… LOL
Greatest state sponsor of terrorism.
Greatest terrorist state.
But but what about Grenada? The US won that convincingly so there.
Iranian drone attack destroys Kuwait airport, causing multiple injuries hours after Iran and US traded strikes
This war is getting closer to me. I’ve had plenty of Kuwaiti students,some of whom might have been in or around that airport. Dimly reminds me of 9/11, when i had a half dozen Saudis in a classroom, along with a whole diaspora of Middle East people. They used to send kids here to learn our ways, like the Chinese. Much less now. Now three world power centers may have settled into some kind of wary (relative) stability. But Russia and the USA have been chipping away at that, and China is maybe just biding time.
They weren’t sent to learn our ways. Who’d do that? They came to learn from the best and take what they learnt back home to improve their own people. Now some, like the Chinese, command many scientific fields and we should send our own to learn from the best in a field and bring back home what they learnt to improve our people. That’s how humankind moves forward.
WTI CME calls at 130 look pretty damn juicy:
Iran has 3 demands which US and Israel cannot accept but which look reasonable to the 99% rest of the world.
a. give back $12B of the money stolen since 1979
b. Allow Omani and Iranian control of Hormuz (just like the Bosphorus Strait controlled by Turkeyeiee)
c. stop splattering Arabs in Lebanon as though they were sickly livestock
Oh, and 30 million Iranians volunteered to die fighting for their country (try getting two dudes to help you move on Sunday in America haha!)
There are very large incentives, and they are Pay & Benefits (Ex. free housing) and you get to live of course…
1. An Iranian soldier typically receives an average monthly salary of approximately $150.
2. While specific benefits are not detailed, military personnel in many countries, including Iran, often receive various forms of support, which may include: Healthcare, Access to military healthcare facilities, Housing: Possible housing allowances, Retirement Plans: Pension plans for long-term service members.Education: Opportunities for further education and training.
3. Have you offered to “Pay” the Dudes? If not, be like Iran and pay them, and lo and behold, they all show up! funny how that works…
No winning strategy.
No winning cards.
Pain threshold is very low.
All exit nightmares left.
BIG BEAUTIFUL ‘QUAGMIRE’
Thanks for paying attention to this matter.
ceasefire won’t work with islamists. this idea is disconnected from reality.
doesn’t seem to work with Christians or Jews either. All of the religious cults are disconnected from reality.
“Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.”
― Seneca
interesting. You do know that Seneca committed suicide, right? Not exactly the model of stoicism you might believe.
lol, those damn war mongering monks, catholics, jews, and their stoning of women, killing of gays and beheading of infidels. why just yesterday I saw a bunch of mormons beheading someone because they left the church.
you imbeciles believe stunning lies so easily i’m surprised you remembered to use the toilet instead of crapping on the floor. Although I’m making some assumptions on that.
You need to get out more lol
Funny, as Iran wasn’t attacking us. We attacked them.
and it happened in a vacuum. nothing happened before then. you morons are nothing if not consistent.
Trump set up a joke ceasefire to circumnavigate required Congressional approval. Either you realize that, or you like “alternative facts” which also is defined as pure bullshit.
The ceasefire isn’t there to hold fire, it’s there to hold Congress at bay.
Your whole argument is based on misunderstanding, and is wholly inaccurate, you don’t even respect Islam enough to capitalize the proper noun, be careful of sending unintended messages lest you reveal truths you prefer to shelter from view.
Trump owns you. Say it.
It doesn’t mean much, but at least the House voted to tell Trump to end his war on Iran. Four republicans – including Massie – voted with the Dems.
Caused a tantrum in the Whitehouse, at least… but there probably would have been one anyway.
Massie? Last I heard he was ready to announce the epstein perps, but then got distracted and had to go fishing with mtg in costa rica. I guess those rape victims can wait a little longer till Massie or Ro get around to releasing the list, right?
Massie is the ONE member of congress most responsible for getting released what has been released. The main Epstein perps are Mossad. What more can he do? At least he did something good by voting against this war.
Where’s the list? You think he’ll get around to it after MTG is done pegging him on the fishing boat?
The list he released were of people who didn’t do any of what you morons think everyone did. Jon Stewart and the guy leading the LA Olympics are in there too.
You people are such imbeciles. It’s surprising you know how to use a keyboard.
Will you mock 100% of the people who work to expose the child rapers? The current trend says yes.
Methinks the “anti pedophile brigade” doth protest an awful lot when it comes to any scrutiny of credibly accused pedophiles. Guess it must have been all those trans people Epstein was talking about getting outlawed in the emails!
Sort of on topic. I was thinking recently about how a majority of Americans (51% or more) believed Saddam Hussein was behind the 911 terror attacks when Gallup (or whoever) polled them right before the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The interesting thing is, nobody in the Bush administration was actually arguing that he had anything to do with it. They simply brainwashed the American people into thinking Saddam = bad = evil, therefore if you randomly asked an American in 2003 if they believed he was behind 911, they were likely to reply “yes”.
Similarly, ever since 1979, when U.S. puppet leader Reza Pahlavi was overthrown, Iran has been branded as “evil”, over and over again, to the point that anytime the word “Iran” is mentioned, it generates a Pavlovian response. It’s scary to me. It’s the whole “weapons of mass distraction” scenario all over again.
He woulda if he coulda!
Rumsfeld wouldn’t extend any more credit.
For the record I was outspoke against that war. Even calling Tom Dashill’s (sp?) Chief of Staff to argue that. His defense? Classic politician “But the polls say…”.
I tried very much.
I asked my elderly Trumpista mother if she could tell me what Iran had ever done to the USA. Her answer: 911! I patiently explained that 911 was performed by a bunch of Sunni Saudis called Al Qaeda, not Shia Iran. She patiently let me know they’re all the same over there. We will always be forced to live in a world where a significant portion of the population is uneducated and nativist.
Sorry she is not able to see those two nations and their people as having any differences. That is unfortunate.
12 years of government edu-cash-in will do that.
Well, the Iranians also held over a hundred diplomats hostage for over a year. Guess you didn’t feel like including that
The deranged clown’s dementia worsens by the day. Time for him to go.
Him and his clan are like herpes… incurable.
yes, at the end of the term. Suck it up, buttercup.
“He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit… In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws, he would make a Trump.”
😆😅😂
Perhaps he’s having nightmares in which he keeps seeing the blasted bodies of all the children he has murdered because he’s dumb as a brick.
Sociopaths have no conscience. The only person in the world who matters to Donald Trump is Donald Trump.
He’s too old for wet dreams.
Nah, only those obsessed with propaganda talk like you do.
If the desalination plants go there will be total chaos in the Middle East and world. Humans can’t survive more than 3 days without water. If those plants blow up it will take months/years to rebuild them.
There are hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East, they will need to be evacuated somewhere where there is water and food. I would suggest ship them all to Israel, they started this mess so they can house 200 to 300 million people for the time being.
And with no water there won’t be anyone to work the oil fields or oil infrastructure so forget about $150 oil, it will go to $1500.
Got popcorn? Got exit strategy? Ready for a cruel summer? Official start of summer is June 19. Put it on your calendar, sit back, and watch the profits roll in.
We are ALL on the brink here, the game of chicken is for reals and we’ll see who blinks first. Best way to be profit is hedged either way.
They can truck in water for the oilfield workers. There are several companies whose gig is supporting mancamps in remote areas for resource extraction.
Truck water in from where exactly? Salt water from the ocean? Lol.
The fascinating thing about this all is how clueless so many people are about what’s happening. It won’t hit them until store shelves are utterly empty and they can’t put gas in their car. It will be worse than the 70s fuel crisis by orders of magnitude 10x because there is so much more dependency on energy.
From wherever they truck the food from. They already import 70% of their food.
They don’t truck that food in, for the most part.
lol, the resident expert on desalination plants steps into the ring. Keep going dude!
If you want to learn about the need for desalination in the Gulf, here you go. The only country that does not heavily depend on desalination is Iran.
How much of the Gulf’s water comes from desalination plants? | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera
If Iran knocks out all those desalination plants, that’s effectively genocide. With fewer people in the middle east, it would be easier for Klingons to conquer most of the oil rich nations, and control the rest of the world through the oil spigot.
“I would suggest ship them all to Israel.”
Fat chance. Jews are all for open borders in the US but hypocritically practice the diametrical opposite in Israel.
Cheap enough for ATM straddling to be viable!
“Well, see, I inherited very high prices when I came in,” Trump flatly lied. “I inherited the highest inflation in the history of our country. You know, Biden had like 9%, 10% inflation. And I inherited that, and we have it way down.”
Devine didn’t bother correcting Trump. Inflation was never 10% under Biden, and the most recent inflation rate — 3.8% in April 2026 — is, in fact, the highest since May 2023, meaning inflation is now higher than it was when he took office.
But his rube supporters can’t understand that.
there is always a delay between cause and effect. Covid stimulis and supply issues caused the 22 inflation. most of which happened during Trumps admin look at the money supply charts for 2020. inflation was getting under control until the tarriffs and the epstein war.
on this site and others commenters have written that “within two weeks the shiat is going to hit the fan, 150 a barrel or worse” Statements such as that were written weeks ago yet I hardly see desperation on the part of the populous. When will the sky fall? I know in two weeks LOL
LOL, yourself
Tick tock
Which populous are you thinking of? In Asia, there is already severe stress and strain. Australia / New Zealand is almost out of fuel. Africa is having issues. If all you care about is your own self then give it some time, your turn is coming.
I’m in Australia. I don’t live in a big city, but I haven’t heard of a real crisis here yet. Where I live, the price of petrol (gas perhaps to you) did go up, but then it came down again.
Tel Aviv isn’t in Austrailia, Schlomo.
Are you sure you live in Australia? This is from today.
Fuel Outage Map & Tracker — Petrol Stations Without Fuel in Australia | Check Petrol
There are zero stations out of fuel in the US, with 12x the population.
You’ve been outed as a 100% bonafide liar, just like your hero Trump.
hide function saves time
To be fair, this task was accomplished many moons ago
is that what your crystal ball says? Try to focus harder. You can do it.
Just watch the oil inventories, the real oil analysts had been predicting early July but some oil is getting thru the blockade. They are now predicting late July or August.
You must not have been alive or conscious in the 70’s or early 80’s when inflation and interest rates spiked to 20 % from Middle East wars and the OPEC oil embargo. Smaller shortages than what we are experiencing now. It takes time for the shortage to work through the tanker shipments, refining, and disruption system, several months.
Just watch the oil inventories, the real oil analysts had been predicting early July but some oil is getting thru the blockade. They are now predicting late July or August. Thank You that was helpful for my understanding
In 1972 I bought a new Datsun 1200 coupe for about $2,300. In late 1973 early 1974 it was worth over $3,000 because it got over 30 mpg. It was a cheap little s-box but I really liked that car.
I currently own a 2020 Prius if the oil keeps going up in price I may sell it because I don’t drive nearly as much as I have in the past. KBB states the value is between 16 and 18K I wonder if it will go to 22K?
Yes, great cars, but they rusted so quickly!
It can be fun allowing people to carry on knowing they know everything.
You could jump off the Empire State Building and be fine for the first 90 stories.
But turn it on it’s side like a reflecting pool and you’re fine.
Prices for oil and many refined products already surpassed $150 many times in Asian markets since the war started. There is no single price for oil. There are many different prices all over the world. And the price depends on how badly someone needs those barrels.
I suspect what you are referring to is the US WTI price, which just happens to be the price least effected by the current turmoil (though it has risen over 40% since the war began).
As many here have recently posted, last week (on May 28 to be precise), Chapman of Exxon predicted WTI $150 oil in 3-4 weeks. That’s only one week ago. Still two or three weeks to go to see if his prediction is correct.
The very next day, the CEOs of Chevron and ADNOC both said similar things.
Fatih Birol of the IEA on May 21 said the “red zone’ will hit in July or August.
I tend to agree with the IEA prediction. Probably July for $150 WTI.
These are all best guesses. The future is hard to predict.
What’s your prediction? Are you like StrongGnu who predicted $40 by December?
Barry Ritholtz appears to think most everything is dandy However this bit stuck out to me I have no idea how the Dunning-Kruger War will ultimately play out in terms of energy prices and/or inflation, but it appears not to have been well thought out in advance.
https://ritholtz.com/2026/06/5-things-i-am-thinking-about/
I am not worried about the price of oil personally. I trade the volatility and it is very lucrative. But that’s just me taking advantage of a situation I have no control over.
However, the war in Iran is taking the world to a place it has not been to before in our modern world. A world of imminent shortages of many critical materials. And mainstream seems blind to what is about to happen.
Even if both sides stop fighting today, it means nothing as long as the strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. Oil, LNG, refined products, sulfur, urea, helium, aluminum, chemicals, etc are not getting to where they are needed. Many of these materials will remain in short supply for months or even years (in the case of LNG), even if the strait fully reopens soon.
Sadly, even when the strait eventually opens it will never return to the previous levels of transit. We will be lucky if it returns to 60% traffic. This will sustain many shortages for years.
Markets seem to think we will go back to normal in a manner of weeks and are ignoring the coming shortages and dislocations at their peril.
Again, this is all something I have no control over. But I intend to take advantage of whatever opportunities it presents to me.
I consider myself an optimist. Others are far more pessimistic than I am.
Today futures are down 3% and many stocks are up, looks like folks are starting to catch on to what’s happening.
Problems will first manifest as minor dislocations in ability to source specific products somewhere, leading to domino stone failure in various production chains. Absolute shortages will start with local dislocations and price spikes. The bench mark prices will follow eventually.
Physical oil is already trading at $40 mark ups to bench marks.
The futures markets are mostly trading and liquidating positions, hedging risks, betting on margins moving one way or the other. It all works on perceptions about others’ perceptions.
They are not buying up huge volumes of oil to store somewhere. Prices will spike when buffers run out and they suddenly cannot cover their positions anymore. That will force changes in perception.
Silly guy, asking for his prediction. My prediction is he will offer no predictions and as many nose punches as others are willing to accept.
You’ll see. The sky is falling….. now! No wait…. it’ll happen anytime now. The commentariat never get it wrong here.
At the start of the war, inventories were at all time highs. They are dropping very quickly, but it takes time. Interestingly, there are massive amounts of current inventory, probably more than half, that aren’t useable for many reasons: crude at sea that takes weeks to get to a destination and then must be refined, oil in pipelines that have to stay full for the pumps to work, and oil in tanks that have a minimum level to those systems to work. That is offset by demand which is sensitive to prices. As prices go up, demand declines reducing the stress on inventories. Trump has done a masterful job at keeping prices low. Traders don’t want to speculate on a high price only to have Trump come out and say “an agreement has been reached” and watch the value of their investment collapse. But the problem with lower prices is it keeps demand higher, making inventory declines even greater. So you have to watch multiple variables to see when and if we reach “tank bottoms”. And those variables are changing every day. But it is definitely going in the wrong direction.
You can focus on deconstructing past statements all you like. If you know the future, well then congratulations, make your money while you know what is going to happen.
It may be more productive to try and understand why those predictions did not materialize. When I see our SPR collapsing and the US exporting oil due to the opportunities abroad to fill the gap, I come to the conclusion the SPR sales offsetting the global crude supply shortfall has something to do with prices not rising sooner or faster.
But if you’d rather poke people with a stick, far be it from me to stop you. I used to enjoy doing it.
He is trying to scare Saudi Arabia, Turkey. Egypt, etc into signing on to the Abraham Accords.
The 🍊 managed to scare them into siding with Iran and cut off Israel for ever.
We have bigger problems brewing. Russia is done playing. Couple of strikes on student dormitories by Ukraine killing dozens of female students were the straw.
After watching the success of Iran’s response attacking a big percentage of the countries involved in sneak attacking them Russia is seriously considering changing their military policy to do same to European military production factories and U.S. bases in retaliation for strikes deep within Russia. Not only this change in posture but also the hardliners in Russia are pressing hard to use a limited nuclear strike to teach the U.S. and Europe to stop fucking with them.
Trump has shown to really suck at actually negotiating. Delivering ultimatums is not negotiating
The common point about the defeat in both the Ukraine and in the Gulf is that Usonian air defense and missiles suck ass, basically overpriced shite.
Russia should destroy MI6 headquarters as an example for Langley.
Russia is weak.If they have been “playing” for four years, than they’re also stupid and evil.
Why has it taken so long to get only 20% of a much smaller country?
Perhaps Trump feels he needs to have a war going on when the mid-term elections come around so that he can delay them and retain power. If he is forced to settle with Iran before November he has Cuba on deck, then Greenland, then Canada, then Panama, and Venezuela looks like it deserves another spanking. Eventually, he might have to help Russia with Ukraine and China with Taiwan in order to stay in power forever.
or maybe he can start a civil war. You can’t have elections during a civil war can you?
We did before.
Yeah, but, um, Abraham Lincoln was President then. Not Donnie John.
Been waiting a long time to know if it will be more like Mad Max or Terminator
The fact is that the Iranians have no trust in the US
What are they asking for?
An end to US attacks on Iran
An end to Israeli attacks on Iran/Lebanon/Gaza
Peace, strangely enough, would be the basis for further negotiation on the remaining issues
The first step to productive negotiations IS NOT Iran giving up control of Hormuz, or giving up their “nuclear dust”-it is simply a real cease-fire
A month or two of a real cease-fire would build a tiny bit of trust.
But no, Trump’s ego and Netanyahu’s delusions and their “Greater Israel” project is more important.
So no trust, no negotiations.
Until the US is smack up against the oil wall
> The fact is that the Iranians have no trust in the US
Very rightly so. And not returning in anyone’s lifetime.
The Iranians aren’t a bunch of choirboys. They support Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
But they would be fools to trust Trump.
The only thing they can do is make it so painful on him that he basically has to beg them to get a deal.
The answer is he’s carefully seeing how the elections are going to go. I suspect we get some MAJOR announcement before election day but then sometime after election day, where I expect Republicans to hold both house and senate (by whatever methods necessary), Trump will be free to do more of the same for 2 more years. I won’t be surprised if Trump’s sovereign wealth fund idea deposits money directly into the accounts of lower and middle classes. The Dumbocrats are simply out of ideas to make Americans rich.
What happened to your endless civil war commentary? I miss the good old days when your conspiracy theories were more crazy.
What has Trump ever done to help the lower and middle class?
He has done everything possible to help them avoid the burden of prosperity. /s
Actually he doesn’t give a flying f— about the lower and middle class except finding ways to exploit them.
Really? Mish, you’re a military expert now? The only thing stopping Trump is the will to win. He got bad intelligence and was snookered by Israel and his son in law. Now, he’s looking for a way to save face. His predicament is much like Putin’s.
Does it take a military expert to see why having desalinization plants in their corner makes Iran the winner here?
Actually, I have a better question. Do you think we can just keep using those pretty bases we built if every other middle eastern country says “leave or we make you leave”? Are we gonna fight all of our allies at the same time too? Oh, I know! We can take Greenland and fight the rest of NATO while we’re at it. All with our unstoppable army that’s out of missiles.
Plus, where does the water for our bases come from. No water, no base. .
Never claimed to be a military expert – but if you bothered to look they all agree Trump has no way out,.
If you believe what you said “ The only thing stopping Trump is the will to win.” you are a MAGA Moron
Please also note the irony.
Snodgrass moans about “bad intelligence and snookered by Israel”
It was Israel’s claim this would be easy.
Yet Snodgrass stupidly proclaims “The only thing stopping Trump is the will to win.” Sheesh the stupidity of it all.
Trump ignored the advice of US military experts. And Finally the ultimate irony,
Snodgrass by his idiotic statement implies he is a military expert!
He has once again proven all by himself that you cannot fix stupid
So you’re saying Trump is stupid and gullible as well as evil.
the military experts told him not to attack Iran.
obviously our military is far superior, but Iran has highly asymentrical options. they can do a lot of economic damage, pain we’re not ready to swallow with a couple of guys in a rubber boat and RPGs– it doesn’t take much to damage civilian tankers and it doesn’t take much for civilian captains and crew to not want to sail.
no missile shield is 100% and there’s too much oil i and other infrastructure that is at risk outside of Iran.
That’s what they said about Nam, about Afghanistan, about Iraq.
They keep saying that: If only we used nukes…
The problem is that these people not only have no plan, they don’t even have an understanding of the real situation. It’s all just slogans and rah rah and drinking your own kool-aid, but completely missing all the details that make up a picture.
The US is out of interceptors and out of stand-off missiles, but they thought there would be a regime change before this would present as an absolute limit.
This might be the first time the MAGA coalition would like to have McCain alive again so he can sing an encore of his smash hit “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran!”
Point to the Mish doll and tell us where the proclamation that he is a military expert came from.