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Trump Is About to Suffer through an Important Lesson in War-Related Tail Risk

Trump likes to take chances with no regard for possible outcomes.

Escalating to Escalate More

Eurointelligence discusses the folly of Escalating to Escalate More

The world’s markets may be about to learn an abrupt and unfortunate lesson in assessing tail-risks. The war between the US and Iran has just expanded, to effectively include a new theatre, and new combatants. In Yemen, the Houthis, an Iranian proxy group, announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. Although the Houthis are fairly independent of Iran’s regime compared to some other groups, it’s still hard to believe this wouldn’t have been coordinated with Tehran.

In and of itself, this is potentially quite a significant problem, especially for global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia has been sending about 5m barrels per day worth of oil through the Red Sea to bypass Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz. Most of that is passing through the Bab el-Mandeb, a strait separating Yemen and east Africa, and connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. The announced maritime blockade directly affects this.

Like with the strait of Hormuz, the problem for oil buyers is that an announced blockade or closure does not need total coverage to be effective. Once you hit several ships, that often creates sufficient deterrence to cause a much larger drop in traffic. The last time the Houthis interdicted shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, it caused a 50% year-on-year drop in oil volume shipped through that strait in the first eight months of 2024. Kpler data now suggests that Saudi oil loadings already dropped 36% in the past two weeks amid increased threats from the Houthis.

This is also potentially a bigger problem than that closure. Although oil was affected through 2024, the biggest problems were for container shipping. But container ships could, and would, go around the Cape of Good Hope instead. For oil shipments originating from the Red Sea itself, this is obviously a lot tougher. They would have to either go through the Suez Canal and then around Africa, or through Egypt’s oil pipeline transport system. This presents both capacity and practical limits.

Beyond this, what’s also worrying about the Houthi announcement is that it takes us one rung further up the escalation ladder. The Iranian regime had been keeping the Bab el-Mandeb as a back-up option for quite some time, holding off from closing it and letting the Saudis send their crude out of the Red Sea. Now they are intentionally broadening the conflict. 

Escalation Risk

“From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz…the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Our defense doctrine is clear: eye for an eye,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on Twitter.

Trump ‘Stuck’ in Iran War Stalemate

Also consider Trump ‘Stuck’ in Iran War Stalemate

Trump appears frustrated that Iran has not surrendered, said former U.S. Iran negotiator Robert Malley.

“President Trump, frustrated that Iran will not bend to his will, is once again threatening war crimes in pursuit of an unlawful, unjustified war whose purpose has become to remedy the very problems it created,” including “to reopen a waterway that was not closed before he launched it,” Malley wrote on Twitter commenting on Trump’s Truth Social threat. “It’s the theater of the absurd, but one in which blood is shed.”

“It’s a bombing campaign NOT in search of a strategy,” commented Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at the Defense Priorities think tank, in evident exasperation.

Trump ‘Stuck’

“Trump appears to be stuck,” Gregory Brew, senior Iran and energy analyst at the Eurasia Group, told me by email today. “He’s comfortable continuing the daily air strikes on Iranian military targets and the ongoing effort to degrade Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, but appears unwilling to significantly escalate against more vulnerable targets, likely out of concern that doing so would trigger more destructive Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf.”

Nothing But Bad Options

“Trump has nothing but bad options,” he said. “He can stay the course and hope that weeks of grinding air strikes will force the Iranians to make concessions. He can escalate and risk a much deadlier, more destructive conflict– again, without much confidence that the Iranians will cave. Or he can return to the negotiating table and try to strike another deal.”

“Trump has driven the US into a dead end,” former U.S. diplomat Daniel Serwer wrote. “A return to negotiation will save a lot of lives and money. But it will have to be a negotiation over the terms of tolling. That is a big loss from the US, but it’s where we are at.”

“I think diplomacy is dead,” Kelanic said. “And I think if it wasn’t dead already, the announcement that Trump is going to help the Saudis with nuclear capabilities I think completely killed it.

“Because from Iran’s perspective, this whole war is being fought because we didn’t want Iran to enrich uranium,” she said. “And then the U.S. turned around and said, in the middle of a war, that we’re going to give their regional rival potentially the ability to enrich uranium. And so that has to that has to be completely shocking to Iran. That has to make them believe all along that Trump was never negotiating in good faith, right? Because all the arguments that Trump made about why Iran shouldn’t have enrichment should apply to the Saudis. Apparently, they don’t.”

Iran Lays Down the Line

Second Strait Blocked

Who Is Blocked?

Avoiding the Blockades

Three Questions for MAGA

  1. Are you tired of winning yet
  2. Are wars and inflation what you voted for?
  3. How fast the TACO?

Hegseth Blasted Over Lies

On July 21, 2026 I commented Hegseth Blasted in Congress Over His Lies Iran’s Military Capability Destroyed

Hegseth seeks more money for illegal wars. Just say no.

Oil Surges Six Percent

On July 23, 2026, I commented Oil Surges Six Percent. Brent Above $100, WTI at $92. Thank Trump

Trump’s tit-for-tat war with Iran escalates. You pay the price.

Tail risk is already happening. We no longer have one closed strait, there are two closed straits.

Everyone is paying a price for Trump’s incompetence. And risk keeps growing the longer the strait (make that straits) are shut.

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105 Comments
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Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 hour ago

“Trump likes to take chances with no regard for possible outcomes:

Why should Trump care? He personally will not suffer, and he does not give a rat’s ass for his followers or anyone else.

His followers are simply a cult.

Eric
Eric
9 hours ago

Israel and the United States
If this interpretation is accurate, it would represent one of the most extraordinary episodes in modern history.
A nation invites another to stand beside it in war as an ally. Then, at a decisive moment, it steps back, leaving its partner to bear the burden of the conflict alone; the casualties, the military campaign, the political fallout, and the economic cost; while observing from a distance.
As the battle unfolds, one nation shoulders the sacrifices while the other remains largely removed from the front lines. Then, when the fighting subsides, the dust settles, and the outcome is no longer in doubt, it returns to claim a disproportionate share of the recognition, the strategic advantages, and the rewards.
If that is indeed how history records these events, future generations will debate whether such a strategy reflects prudent statecraft or political opportunism. Ultimately, history; not rhetoric; will render its judgment.

top gone
top gone
7 hours ago
Reply to  Eric

History should also include the fact that we went to war to change the narrative from the epstein files and the heat that they were putting on trump. Operation epstein fury was the entire purpose and not isreal is sitting it out likely because bebe has video

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
9 hours ago

Mish, you are not skeptical enough. Trump, Elon, Fink, K Street, War Street, Wall Street — they will suffer nothing. Just a few slurs and shouts while they suffer outrageous fortune.

Mick
Mick
9 hours ago

Next, we’ll see Trump brag about how our adversaries are desperate because they now have no more straits left to close.

You name it
You name it
13 hours ago

Interesting piece on the highly probable main reason for the ME war theater.
H/t to Dr. Meryll Nass.

“How the US Pulled off an Armed Robbery of the World’s Energy Supply and Created the Petrogas-Dollar.
A forensic investigation into how Washington leveraged the war in Iran to replace Nord Stream, save the dollar, and establish total command over the world’s fuel from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean.” 
Richard Medhurst – May 01, 2026

https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
9 hours ago
Reply to  You name it

Global smash and grab.

When I hear people rant about poor people stealing TVs or, my gawsh, “looting” food during a natural disaster from stores that are boarded up, it irks me when I learn they vote for and defend the biggest crooks on the planet.

Last edited 9 hours ago by most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
40 minutes ago
Reply to  You name it

Thank you very much for this. I love it when I learn something substantial. It’s also something of a relief to realize that, although the people really in charge may not have our best interests at heart, they are at least rational.

J_Schneider
J_Schneider
14 hours ago

Walking away or signing and executing weak agreement with Iran means lossin part of MAGA. Who else is going to vote for Republicans in mid-terms than MAGA? Without MAGA Republicans will lose 2028 elections and Trump’s family will be put under corruption investigation in 2029. Exil in Israel would be impossible because father Trump signed a bad deal in 2026. And let’s not forget about Mossad warning that Iran wants to assassinate Trump. Is it a threat from Tel Aviv in reality? Being assassinated as a sitting president is quite common in the US – JFK, Ford, Reagan.

Keeping the war going means slow anihilation of US military bases and US assets in Middle East. Finally all US planes and soldiers would have to be based in Israel and that is too far from Iran and too many crowded in one place which is dangerous.

It also means spending remaining JASSMs, THAAD and Patriot missiles. China is blocking supplies of rare earth to US defence industry and will keep doing so meaning that these spent missiles are hard to replace.

Keeping the low intesity war going also means gasoline at $5, losing mid-terms and lame-duck presidency. And let’s not forget that Israeli lobby also owns many Democrat congressmen. And the risk of losing 2028 is still there because of the war going on for too long.

Perfect dead alley.

I am afraid that Trump is condemned to keep mowing the Iranian lawn until the end of his presidency because that keeps the exil in Israel or support from pro-Israel Democrats options open. Any other strategy leads to 2029 criminal investigation of entire family for corruption with no exit option available.

Arthur Fully
Arthur Fully
19 hours ago

The brain dead blunder of the week was for the British to allow B-1s using their airbase to attack Iran. The Iranians said that that base is now a candidate for attack by them.
Here’s a potential scenario: Pack up a couple of dozen Shahed drones, send them to Belarus via the Caspian Sea and Russia. Then use those drones to attack the airbase (and any USAF equipment that is there). This would be very similar to the attack (enabled by the British) that the Ukrainians made against Russian strategic aircraft. Perfectly legal under the rules of warfare.
The use of the B-1s was explicitly approved by the new UK Prime Minister and makes the UK a party to the war with Iran. If Iran does attack the UK it will not drag NATO into the war.

Jojo
Jojo
13 hours ago
Reply to  Arthur Fully

You should hire yourself out as a self-made military strategist. Or would an armchair general be a better description? I think the latter Arthur and your last name should not be “Fully” but Folly”. 🤣

Quatloo
Quatloo
7 hours ago
Reply to  Arthur Fully

If that is a realistic possibility, why wouldn’t Iran have already attacked American bases in Europe used for the Iran war, particularly those in Germany? Russian drones sent to Poland and other Eastern European countries a few months ago were shot down fairly quickly. I have to think NATO keeps a very close eye on drones coming from Russia or Belarus.

whirlaway
whirlaway
20 hours ago

“Now that the Houthis have entered the conflict, routing around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Suez Canal…”

I am not sure that makes sense. Routing around the Cape of Good Hope would require first getting past the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. If the Houthis enter the conflict, it is the Strait that they will be blocking.

Arthur Fully
Arthur Fully
19 hours ago
Reply to  whirlaway

So far the only ships affected by the Houthis would belonging to Saudi Arabia, or shipping Saudi oil from the pipeline terminus in the Red Sea.The Suez Canal is to small for the larger crude tankers.

PapaDave
PapaDave
18 hours ago
Reply to  whirlaway

Yemen is south of Saudi Arabia. Yemen borders the Bab el Mandeb strait. This is the choke point where they can interfere with Saudi tankers.

The port of Yanbu is north of Yemen, near the Suez canal. They will send tankers from Yanbu through the Suez canal, then through the Mediterranean, then around Africa to Asia. This route adds a month to shipping times.

whirlaway
whirlaway
9 hours ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I see. The trip to Asia will get longer. I was thinking about tankers to Europe and the Americas instead.

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
21 minutes ago
Reply to  whirlaway

I think you are thinking of ships trying to get to Europe, whereas the other writer was talking about ships trying to get to China, Japan, and India.

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
20 minutes ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

Sorry, I see you’ve already cleared that up below.

Jojo
Jojo
21 hours ago

Capisce?

The Iran war’s big oil mystery: No one seems to want it

CNN Business

David Goldman · July 21, 2026

Two dominant forces balance the global oil market: supply and demand. The Iran war has broken both — one perhaps beyond repair.

Supply remains a complete mess. A historic crude glut turned into the worst-ever supply shock before another flood of oil entered the market in June. Now, an intensifying war has again closed off significant access to Persian Gulf oil, reinjecting chaos into the market.

Demand is somehow even more difficult to comprehend.

The world has adapted to the supply shock during five months of war, learning how to cope without using as much oil as it had before the conflict. Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil finally escaped the Strait of Hormuz last month, only to find few willing buyers. Some Middle Eastern crude had to be heavily discounted before it found any takers.

The reasons why the world is turning up its nose at oil are complex.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/21/business/oil-demand-iran-china

PapaDave
PapaDave
21 hours ago

Trump is NOT going to learn a lesson here. He is incapable of doing that.

He has fired every competent military analyst and strategist who told him he shouldn’t attack Iran because it is a no-win situation. Instead he surrounds himself with ass-kissers who refuse to tell him the truth, refuse to give him bad news, and keep telling him Iran is going to collapse any day now.

So he continues with a failed strategy, thinking that if he just applies a little more pressure that Iran will crack and he will win.

Iran is NOT going to crack. They are going to continue until the US finally gives up and leaves the region. They have already severely damaged or destroyed every US military base and radar in the Persian Gulf region and forced the US air force to retreat to Israel.

Trump is now trapped, like Johnson was in the Vietnam war. Desperate for a way out that saves face. But Iran will not allow that to happen. After being attacked since Feb 28, they are in no mood to let the US off the hook.

Maximus Minimus
Maximus Minimus
21 hours ago
Reply to  PapaDave

They will first ban Chinook helicopters from the region. The picture of a Chinook helicopter flying into the sunset is the ultimate humiliation.
Watch for report about Chinook helicopters. /s

yippee
yippee
19 hours ago
Reply to  PapaDave

20 years in afghanistan and iraq. we are in top of the first inning with no outs

PapaDave
PapaDave
18 hours ago
Reply to  yippee

We will see. I doubt this continues once Trump is no longer President. And he will likely end it himself once he thinks he has a good enough reason to claim victory.

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Unless the congress can get their act together and cut off funding.

Jon
Jon
9 hours ago
Reply to  pokercat

Republicans overwhelmingly voted to increase funding.

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I’m waiting for the peace offer from Tehran; trump and all his children must be turned over to Iran for trial. They’d be right to do so.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 hours ago
Reply to  pokercat

Yes. Trump killed their leader and his family while in the middle of negotiations. Iran wants “eye for an eye.”

Richinar
Richinar
21 hours ago

That’s the point… to make everyone suffer. It’s the only way to control people is through pain and suffering. We must be breaking out of our slumber so they will insist on full blown world war and killing the sons of the slaves = us the plebs. Expect it to get much worse

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
22 hours ago

Ah where are i did this stickers on the gas pumps.

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

Amazon of course, lots of them and cheaper than a gal of gas.

Note all major gas stations have video of there pumps and patrons so be careful.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
22 hours ago

Global trade to the point of dependency was the tail risk. It was a slippery slope, but the West made itself highly vulnerable offshoring its manufacturing processes, thus making available military advantages. Those imported goods require energy for transportation. So instead of defending just the area of the US, a significantly larger area containing the global energy infrastructure, foreign manufacturing, and shipping routes must now be defended.

A little international trade is a good thing, but there is no objective definition of “little”. The temptation of lower costs through arbitrage lasting forever was completely ignored, so we have a destructive addiction. The hidden costs of global trade are revealed through military actions: loss of lives, entanglement with other countries, loss of technical knowledge and manufacturing processes.

Trump’s military actions are a symptom of a much larger problem: greed.

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

Epstein, greed or just fucking crazy take your pick. After what can only be called attempting to destroy our government I can’t understand how trump is allowed to remain in office.

Peppe Iozzo
Peppe Iozzo
16 hours ago
Reply to  pokercat

Everyone is scared of Trump to demonstrate for peace, remove Trump from the Presidency and charge him for war crimes, insider trading and stock market manipulating, sex with minors and Epstien file manipulation and on and on. EVERYONE IS SHt Scared of Mad Man Trump that’s why no one is demontrating in the streets against Trump and are allowing him to DESTROY tht US.

you name it
you name it
12 hours ago
Reply to  Peppe Iozzo

And rightly so. Physically unstable aggressive people will destroy everything within reach if cornered. And while this guys reach is large it is definitely not infinite. It would amaze me if he still sleeps at night at all.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
22 hours ago

Watched a little bit of Trump’s presser today—-oooofaaa—old codger is looking rough.

Hopefully he’ll have a restful Shabbat….then I’ll assume the missiles start flying after Shabbat is over at sundown Saturday.

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Hopefully he will have a restful and permanent dirt nap.

Jojo
Jojo
13 hours ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Nothing will happen until he meets with Netanyahu on Tuesday and coordinates the next actions.

Quatloo
Quatloo
7 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

Yes, Trump can’t take that kind of action without running it by his boss first

Brutus Admirer
Brutus Admirer
23 hours ago

Does anyone have any thoughts on Chris Martenson’s theory that oil futures have been manipulated downward via algorithms trading on rumors the Pakistanis are trying to restart negotiations, etc? It certainly fits with oil falling today in spite of all the violence and consequent restraint of oil shipments worsening.

Crude oil Sept futures trading for $90. But you can you buy a barrel for $90 and get it delivered?

Quatloo
Quatloo
23 hours ago
Reply to  Brutus Admirer

I haven’t seen that, but I am absolutely convinced crude oil prices are being manipulated, probably to send propaganda signals to AI traders and journalists.

GAZ
GAZ
23 hours ago
Reply to  Brutus Admirer

Name something that isn’t manipulated.
Everything now is either a Ponzi, a scam, or a platform for advertising.
The worth of something is what ever someone can pay for it or GO INTO DEBT for, therefore, it is almost impossible to have accurate price discovery.
The inclusion and availability of magnitudes of debt in all forms and amounts, has distorted the prices of everything beyond supply and demand.

Last edited 23 hours ago by GAZ
JCH1952
JCH1952
1 day ago

With all this negativity, on the bright side, measles and explosive diarrhea have reached 35-year highs.

Jon
Jon
9 hours ago
Reply to  JCH1952

MAHA!

Webej
Webej
1 day ago

A return to negotiation 

Nobody in their right mind would negotiate with the Wejish ethno-state’s proxy regime in Washington.
Let them start by canceling sanctions and returning the stolen assets.
That doesn’t require any negotiation — just do it.
They’ve already agreed and said they would.

There can be no peace without abandoning the Greater Israel project.

Quatloo
Quatloo
7 hours ago
Reply to  Webej

Agree. I don’t see why Iran would even come to the table to negotiate until Trump gives them the stolen assets he agreed in the MoU he would return immediately upon signing.

Jojo
Jojo
1 day ago

I’ve said before that the world will find ways to bypass any restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Here is a story on one approach occurring right now.

Middle East oil producers step up plans to bypass the Strait of Hormuz

By DAVID MCHUGH

Updated 5:44 AM PDT, July 23, 2026

Before the war in Iran, roughly 15 million barrels of Persian Gulf oil were shipped each day through the Strait of Hormuz. Within a few years, much of that oil could bypass the strait.

As Iran’s chokehold over the strait drags on and oil prices surge, countries across the Gulf are planning to spend billions of dollars to build pipelines enabling them to redirect more supplies to ports on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman and the Mediterranean.

At least seven major pipeline projects are under construction, in the planning stage or being discussed as possibilities, according to government officials, oil companies and analysts. The war has been a wake-up call for Gulf oil producers, who are determined to become less dependent on a transit point that hugs Iran’s coast.

https://apnews.com/article/oil-strait-of-hormuz-iran-896c02f0c978986fff0ae7fc389ea51f

Webej
Webej
1 day ago
Reply to  Jojo

Yeah. Iran wouldn’t hit any pipeline structure, would they?
What’s the ROI on pipelines that only work when there is nobody to target them.

Jackula
Jackula
23 hours ago
Reply to  Webej

Not only Iran but various ground forces and other players

Jojo
Jojo
21 hours ago
Reply to  Jackula

And yet the construction projects continue!

I wonder what they know that YOU DON’T KNOW?

Creamer
Creamer
22 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

So do you think the Bab is also in the straits of Hormuz? Have you simply never taken middle school geography?

Jojo
Jojo
1 day ago

Here’s an idea: Let’s bombard Iran with Taco Bell diarrhea lettuce!

GAZ
GAZ
22 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

Let’s bombard them with our nuclear waste that we are spending billions to bury here. Let them refine that.
If that doesn’t work, let’s hack all their computer data bases and insert Taylor Swift content.
They might start killing themselves en masse within days

Creamer
Creamer
22 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

Everyone, let’s clap for Jojo’s best thought out post on this subject yet.

rjohnson
rjohnson
1 day ago

Another example of Trump not considering outcomes:

Revenge for the dead and in the process get more killed. This nut is going to ruin us all before it’s over at this rate. And over half the congress voting to let him do whatever he wants. Morons!

Jojo
Jojo
1 day ago

Warfare has consequences and repercussions. Those costs have to be accepted for the greater good, which you and others may not agree with. That is how the game works. You can express your dissatisfaction in upcoming elections.

Meanwhile, you should support the choices of our elected leaders instead of constantly nipping at their ankles.

I remind everyone that the onus of this whole situation does not rest on the USA alone. The Iranian Regime could bring this to a close on their own by:

  1. Committing to not enrich uranium, not develop a nuclear weapon and submit to regular, unrestricted IAEA inspections for some future time period, say 20 years, since they have proven to be untrustworthy.
  2. Refrain from imposing tolls on traffic transiting through the Strait of Hormuz as it was prior to last Feb 28th.
  3. Stop funding its proxy militias (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) and contributing to Middle East destabilization in attempt to spread its fanatical religious beliefs.

These three points are not complicated and require the Iranian Regime to do absolutely NOTHING. Why should it be so hard?

Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
1 day ago
Reply to  Jojo

Why does Israel and North Korea get to have atomic weapons but Iran doesn’t ?

Jojo
Jojo
1 day ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Because they got in under the cutoff date. Grandfather exception.

whirlaway
whirlaway
20 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

LOL. What is this so-called cutoff date? Is it something that you idiots pulled out of your collective ass?!

Jojo
Jojo
3 hours ago
Reply to  whirlaway

Yes. Would you rather we said the answer is because that is what we decree and there isn’t anything that YOU can do about it?

Webej
Webej
1 day ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Why does America get to ave ‘m ?
Already used them and have often threatened to do so.
Run by rogues and clowns with rabid theocratic delusions, lacking even the most rudimentary education and skill.

Jojo
Jojo
1 day ago
Reply to  Webej

The Iranian Regime must pay you well because you keep posting the same stoopid questions, month after month.

Webej
Webej
19 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

They pay me  √2 × 100,000,0000 (billion, 10) rials for every comment to columns in which Mish drops the term ‘Iran’.

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

Shit I’d post anything within the bounds of legality if they paid me.

Derecho
Derecho
1 day ago
Reply to  Jojo

7 years ago Bibi was all for funding Hamas.

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended Israel’s regular allowing of Qatari funds to be transferred into Gaza, saying it is part of a broader strategy to keep Hamas and the Palestinian Authority separate, a source in Monday’s Likud faction meeting said.”
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/netanyahu-money-to-hamas-part-of-strategy-to-keep-palestinians-divided-583082

Jojo
Jojo
21 hours ago
Reply to  Derecho

You work with what you got. If the Iranian Regime can’t be stopped from funding its proxies, then you have to try and play them against the regime or corrupt them.

The point you wanted to make was?

Brutus Admirer
Brutus Admirer
7 hours ago
Reply to  Derecho

I believe he facilitated Hamas funding because, like him, they oppose a 2-state solution. Funded them because they were likely to provide Bibi his “Pearl Harbor”, Oct 7, if they made Gaza miserable enough.

peelo
peelo
1 day ago
Reply to  Jojo

Uncritically cheer for the current war? When did I hear this, stridently advanced by chicken-hawks, often as taunts suggesting disloyalty? Vietnam. Gulf War 2/Afghanistan. These left us historically poorer in blood, treasure, and reputation. These were not small things to be brushed aside in memory. They were grave lessons. You will help your real loyalty down to the last American life.

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 hours ago
Reply to  peelo

George W Bush would always say “you’re either with us or you’re with the terrorists”

Quatloo
Quatloo
23 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

The Iranian Regime could bring this to a close on their own by [surrendering unconditionally]”.

I think Iran has been pretty clear, responding months ago in effect “who is going to make us surrender? You and whose army?” And for months the answer has effectively been “please, please, please come to the table and negotiate a deal! You know all that stuff we said about giving us your enriched uranium, forget about it. Everything we said about giving up your ballistic missiles, please we didn’t mean it. All our insistence that we need regime change in Iran, please you know we love you! Our suggestions you stop funding other groups in the Middle East, really that’s no big deal. Just please say you don’t want nuclear weapons and let ships through the Strait, okay…please?”

Everything Trump is doing is projection. Claiming the other side is begging for a deal. Claiming the other side can’t be trusted. Claiming the other side doesn’t honor the deals they make. Claiming the other side tries to change the deal at the last minute. Claiming the other side is out for world domination. Claiming the other side is running out of weapons. Everything.

Jojo
Jojo
21 hours ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Perhaps the PEOPLE of Iran will dispose of the Regime on their own? 😁

Leaked Iran report finds record public anger as regime focuses on holding power

foxnews.com

17 July 2026

A confidential report prepared for Iran’s presidency is raising a consequential question for Washington and its allies: Do extraordinary levels of public anger and support for systemic change justify reassessing whether the Islamic Republic may be more vulnerable to regime change than previously believed?

The classified document, titled “What Iran Wants,” reportedly found that only 9% of respondents supported maintaining the status quo, with 53% calling for fundamental or structural reforms and more than 19% favoring changing the political system outright.

Taken together, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed reportedly supported either deep structural reform or replacement of the existing system — findings that could strengthen arguments that Iran’s political crisis has moved beyond dissatisfaction with individual leaders or policies.

IranWire reported on July 13 that it had obtained the document, which was compiled by Ali Rabiei, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s social adviser and a former government spokesman. It was based on polling conducted by the Ara Opinion Research Center in May 2026 and circulated among institutions within Iran’s governing structure in June, according to the outlet.

Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the report should prompt a fresh assessment of the potential for political upheaval inside Iran.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/leaked-iran-report-finds-record-public-anger-regime-focuses-holding-power

pokercat
pokercat
17 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

More realistic American survey.

The classified document, titled “What Americans Want,” reportedly found that only 9% of respondents supported maintaining the status quo, with 53% calling for fundamental or structural reforms and more than 19% favoring changing the political system outright.
Taken together, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed reportedly supported either deep structural reform or replacement of the existing system — findings that could strengthen arguments that America’s political crisis has moved beyond dissatisfaction with individual leaders or policies.

Now this I could believe although it may be true of Iranians also.
Also key to the report is the word “respondents”, not stating how many actually responded leaves a huge doubt on the report.

Last edited 16 hours ago by pokercat
Quatloo
Quatloo
7 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

That’s what Trump has expected to happen. I agree you are just as smart as him.

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

The WSJ just published an article saying the Iranian public’s support for the government has increased as a result of the US starting the war.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-wave-of-iranian-nationalism-is-drowning-out-its-diplomats-4e47bb74

Jon
Jon
9 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo
  1. Obama had them committed to that.
  2. They never did this prior to be attacked by Trump.
  3. They’ve never done this regardless.
Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
1 day ago

I am repeating myself, but it is not too long since we, in the person of the Saudis using American airplanes and technical support, were using famine and cholera against the Yemenis. They weren’t able to close the Red Sea then. I have seen a report somewhere that crew are now being paid large bonuses to compensate them for the war risk of sailing into the Persian Gulf. They can be paid war-risk wages to go through the Red Sea too, if necessary. I think hatred of Trump is blinding you to the progress of the war.

I have been taken by surprise by the resilience of the Ukrainians in their war with Russia. I have to give the Americans credit, if that is the right word, for their double-cross of using the time gained by a deal with Russia that they did not intend to honor, to train and arm the Ukrainians for an extended war with guerilla war elements. This has been a great testing-ground for new weapons, and fulfills the necessity for an empire to have enemies to keep itself together and keep from getting soft.

I just hope that the victory of the American-Jewish side in the Persian Gulf war does not lead to a victory of the American-Jewish side in the Ukraine war.

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
1 day ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

P.S. I suggest that the idea that Trump as an experienced and successful businessman (albeit with some stumbles along the way) doesn’t think about outcomes and likes to take chances for the fun of it is absurd.

Creamer
Creamer
22 hours ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

https://mishtalk.com/economics/does-president-trump-have-any-idea-what-passports-are-for/#comment-449328

Just another reminder that Arthur is a pedophile by his own admission. So not only is Arthur stupid, he also wants to touch your “little hussies” (grandkids)

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
20 hours ago
Reply to  Creamer

Thanks for that. Your standard of argumentation is scintillating.

You name it
You name it
1 day ago

> Or he can return to the negotiating table and try to strike another deal

Why would anyone in their right mind waste their time with negotiating “deals” with the US given the past experience. Clearly not an option.

Since Iran is never going to give up or give in to the demands of USIS for good reason and USIS will continue their aggression until the last of their military capability has gone the world will continue to be taken hostage for another while. With endless pain, death and sorrow as consequences, and quite likely at least a partial collapse of the world economy. Just as planned.

Harry
Harry
1 day ago

The seriousness of this is still being under-estimated in general.

Jojo
Jojo
1 day ago
Reply to  Harry

Which is why the Iranian Regime should capitulate. Trump is not going to back down.

Sentient
Sentient
1 day ago
Reply to  Jojo

There’s a chance he won’t even be in office a year from now.

Quatloo
Quatloo
1 day ago
Reply to  Jojo

Yes, when has Trump EVER backed down and reversed himself?!

Appreciate you doing your job as the MishTalk jester, giving us a good laugh as always!

Jon
Jon
8 hours ago
Reply to  Jojo

He will be out of office soon enough. The Iranians just have to keep putting out fake, but real looking military equipment for us to bomb, while forcing gas prices through the stratosphere and wait. Poor MAGA will be hurt the most paying $150 to gas up their F150s. Either that or they ill trade it in on a used Tesla.

The Dude Abides
The Dude Abides
1 day ago

So the 60-day War Powers Act grace period for a U.S. President to start a war without congressional authorization was approaching 60 days before the Trump team said the proverbial clock was paused due to an agreement and MOU. (It is highly questionable that the clock can be stopped, but let’s assume it’s legit.) So now the MOU has been broken by both sides, which means that the clock should be running again. No? And if that’s the case then we are either about to push past or have already passed the 60-days. If I’m misunderstanding anything, someone please reply. I realize that all of the above assumes that we have a FedGov and President who govern with the rule of law. This is at the root of why people are calling this an illegal war. Hard stop.

Mike R
Mike R
1 day ago

The administration is asserting that the clock didn’t just pause, it actually reset to zero. So drumpf and hogsbreath believe they are on day 14 or thereabouts, which means we have another 45 or so days left of this, theoretically. What they decide to do at the end of that clock in early September, is anyone’s guess. If they want to continue bombing, they could declare a unilateral cease fire for a week let’s say, and then assert they can start bombing again, ad infinitum. Alternatively, they could just flip the proverbial bird to Congress and say the war powers act doesn’t apply to them because they believe it to be unconstitutional. And Congress is probably to gutless to do anything about it, at least until Jan 20, 2027 assuming a blue wave in the meantime.

Mike R
Mike R
1 day ago
Reply to  Mike R

and Congress in the meantime may ram through the supplemental funding bill bc republicans gotta toady to their lord and master, and fund them another $70B or so. BC they may complain about this war and it’s price tag, but at the end of the day they gotta answer to their uberlord.

Webej
Webej
1 day ago
Reply to  Mike R

pretend ‘clock’

oil clock keeps ticking regardless

The Dude Abides
The Dude Abides
23 hours ago
Reply to  Mike R

Ah, so ‘creative timekeeping’. Figures! Thanks.

Jackula
Jackula
1 day ago

War tail risk is a good way to put it. With the Iranians geographical position and top 3 in the world drone and missile retaliatory capability its humongous

BigBob
BigBob
1 day ago

This senile bloated POS doesn’t learn anything. He is just occupying space wreaking havoc shitting his pants while his handlers have to change his diaper. He is so thoroughly disgusting just looking at him makes me want to puke. He needs AI to doctor his images so he looks human along with his henchman, Stephen Himmler Miller.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 day ago
Reply to  BigBob

Miller is jewish…so Himmler?

Sentient
Sentient
1 day ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Zelenskyy is Jewish and he runs a state full of neo Nazis.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 day ago
Reply to  Sentient

Ah….well played sir, well played 😀

Augustine
Augustine
1 day ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Satanyahoo is Jewish but he makes Himmler look like a sentimental amateur.

pokercat
pokercat
16 hours ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

“Jewish” is a religion not a race so yeah Himmler maybe he’s not kosher.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 day ago

TACO’s will be served Sunday evening before futures open

SavyinDallas
SavyinDallas
1 day ago

We destroyed their army. destroyed their air force, destroyed 98% of their missiles, destroyed their nuclear capacity for decades? Time to declare victory and sail home. Israel can take care of themselves against this decimated, destroyed Iran. As far as the USA? On to Greenland! On to Cuba! And maybe even Canada.

Jackula
Jackula
1 day ago
Reply to  SavyinDallas

In Trump’s delusional dreams we did this.

Eric
Eric
1 day ago

With no realistic path out of the predicament Netanyahu has drawn him into, Trump appears increasingly likely to escalate the conflict, making an already dangerous situation much, much worse. Fasten your seatbelts.

Eric
Eric
1 day ago
Reply to  Eric

+++
Houthis … it’s still hard to believe this wouldn’t have been coordinated with Tehran.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-flew-irgc-commanders-missile-gear-yemens-houthis-sources-say-2026-07-23/

pokercat
pokercat
16 hours ago
Reply to  Eric

He must do what Israel tells him to do, they have the real Epstein files and miles of video tape.

Eric
Eric
14 hours ago
Reply to  pokercat

I agree 100%.
That’s what I’ve always believed, too.
There is no other explanation for this madness.

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
1 day ago

Taco doesn’t have enough common sense to know the difference between “come here from sic em.”

Triple B
Triple B
1 day ago

1. Trump didn’t stumble into tail‑risk — he swaggered into it and handed Iran the detonator.
2. The Houthis just proved his “tough guy” routine collapses the second someone actually pushes back.
3. Now the world eats an oil shock while he learns a lesson any competent strategist already knew.

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