Trump and Iran have blockaded each other. So who’s in control?
Economic Pressure
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s Blockade Keeps the Economic Pressure on Iran
Iran’s demands are rising, and does President Trump have the patience to wait them out? That may be the defining question at this stage in the mishandled Iran war.
On Sunday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi again said that an agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz was in its “final stages,” but that it wouldn’t be enough for Iran to let traffic resume. At least Mr. Araghchi is being honest this time. He’s the one who assured the world Iran would reopen the Strait on April 7, the start of the initial, premature cease-fire, and then again on April 17 after a Lebanon cease-fire.
For Iran to let ships pass, the Foreign Minister now says, the U.S. would have to pay reparations for damage from the war. The U.S. naval blockade would also have to end. Other regime officials add more conditions: a release of billions of dollars in frozen assets, an end to sanctions, the full withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, and an end to strikes against Iran’s terror proxies. All of which would usher in . . . exorbitant peacetime tolls to transit Hormuz, the Iranians say.
The demands are outrageous but not surprising. Iran’s regime believes it has escalation dominance because it has seen Mr. Trump back down from stronger action again and again. It also sees the parade of leaks that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Dan Caine, is looking for an exit from the war, and that the U.S. has all but run out of certain types of long-range missiles and interceptors.
If the latter is true, then Mr. Trump’s Sunday remark that “we are low-keying it” may be more sensible than his usual military bluster. “We are only semi-negotiating with them,” the President said. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” He added that the regime “is in very bad shape” economically, unable to pay its troops.
Iran has launched at least 22 strikes in the past two weeks, getting away with firing some 52 drones and 12 missiles. Yet the price of oil has stayed around $80, in part due to the 8 million barrels a day that U.S. officials say is being sneaked out of the Strait.
U.S. Fires on Ship Breaking Its Blockade of Iran
Today the WSJ reports U.S. Fires on Ship Breaking Its Blockade of Iran
U.S. forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship that attempted to run the American blockade of Iranian ports early Tuesday, a U.S. official said, stepping up enforcement as the Trump administration attempts to squeeze the regime economically.
A U.S. military helicopter fired at the rudder of the ship after its crew ignored warnings from American personnel working to enforce the naval blockade of Iran’s ports, the official said.
There were no immediate reports of any casualties in the incident, which took place before dawn on Tuesday. The U.S. official said the ship appeared to be attempting to transfer its crew to another civilian vessel after the attack.
Earlier Tuesday, maritime security firm Vanguard reported that a Panama-flagged containership called Vela Nova was struck by a missile fired from a helicopter while transiting westbound through the Gulf of Oman about 71 nautical miles from the coast of Pakistan.
“The missile struck the vessel, causing a fire that was subsequently extinguished,” said Vanguard in an initial report on the incident. All 17 crew were accounted for, it added.
In June, three Indian sailors were killed in a U.S. operation to enforce its blockade of Iran, an Indian official said at the time. Those were the first reported deaths resulting from the American effort to starve its foe of oil revenue and force it to make a deal to end the war.
The U.S. attack on the ship comes during a relative lull in hostilities in the war with Iran, including attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has choked off traffic with attacks on ships.
As of Monday, the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, had redirected 55 commercial ships, disabled two and boarded two to enforce the blockade. It redirected 194 vessels and disabled nine in the first round of the blockade as of mid-June.
The renewed American campaign to block Iran’s oil shipments has set up a contest in which both Washington and Tehran are attempting to use economic pressure to coerce the other.
The Best Answer?
The WSJ Editorial board commented “This may be the best answer to the regime’s rising demands.“
I ask “the best answer for what?”
As long as there is a stalemate, there is upward pressure on the price of oil and all goods that pass through the strait.
Iran will gladly pay this economic pressure vs being bombed back to the stone age.
Four Important Things
- The US is nearly out of missiles.
- Mideast countries fear an Iran escalation and have asked Trump to stop the attacks.
- Trump does not want rising pressure headed into the midterms.
- US polls show people are sick of this damn war.
Trump Overplays His Hand
Time On Iran’s Side
If Trump thinks he can wait out Iran he and his advisors are crazy.
But hey, there are numerous reports of another deal that is close.
Wake me up when Trump agrees to most of Iran’s demands.
Trump’s New Demand Is Compensation from Iran for Mideast Deaths
I commented yesterday on the trap Trump is in.
For discussion, please see Trump’s New Demand Is Compensation from Iran for Mideast Deaths
What? No threats, just demands? My God is this feeble.
Today we see more feeble actions that do nothing but keep the strait closed.
Iran will gladly wait this out.
We just had the largest EIA crude build today since 2023. US crude inventories up about 17 million barrels. Either the economy is far worse than is advertised or the straight of Hormuz is not really as relevant to oil supplies as we’re told.
The Strait of Hormuz is relevant to fertilizer, helium, sulphur, sulphuric acid, and Asian and European oil supplies.
That doesn’t mean it is directly related to the US’s oil production.
However, you can see the war’s direct effect via diesel prices.
The moral of the story is: Nuclear weapons make for good neighbors.
Russia wouldn’t have attacked Ukraine if Ukraine had nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu & the Caterer wouldn’t have attacked Iran if they had nuclear weapons.
Everyone would be a whole lot better off right now.
“A well-armed society is a polite society.” — Heinlein
if your reading the comments to this war it’s down right amazing how many people get a seat at the negotiation table with Donny. keep up the good work men.
Iran has calculated the US is agreement incapable and is opting for forever war. Iran’s expects and desires its demands to be rejected and is choosing to base its future on violence and the threat of violence all across the region, perpetually.
[Professor Pape explains on youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qIsQM1RsmQ%5D
This is totally unexpected, it’s not like Trump executed their head of state during negotiations and wiped out grade schoolers like they were sick livestock, eh?
برای سوزاندن زغال سنگ باید عوارض پرداخت کنید
[Persian saying: If you want to burn the coal, you must pay the toll.]
Eventually we will just have to make an example of them with a small nuke.
Are you talking about Israel?
If you think just a bit about it, you will realize how stupid this suggestion is.
Of course, if Iran were to use a small nuke in response to American and Israeli aggression, you’d whine like a little bitch.
They’d have to obtain oine first and they have failed to do that in the 30 odd years that they have been trying to build one on their own.
And were some other country to illegally transfer one to Iran, well, they would then become a valid target also.
Capisce?
“Trump and Iran have blockaded each other. So who’s in control?”
Traffic through the strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100-140 per day before the war to 0-20 per day this month. The majority of ships are using the Iranian route vs the Omani route.
If the US was in control, there would still be over 80 ships per day transiting the strait (fewer than before the war because they could stop Iranian ships from transiting).
Since so few ships are moving through the strait, it is clear that Iran is in control. They are letting a few through, but blocking those they don’t want to pass by attacking them. Shipping companies (and their insurers) are hesitant to attempt passage.
Trump has burned through a lot of munitions and lives lost and has accomplished none of his goals. No friendly regime change, no nuclear dust acquired, no end to the nuclear or missile programs, no control of Iranian oil etc.
On the other hand, Trump has lost a lot because the US has abandoned it’s many damaged bases in the region and retreated to Israel and Jordan. And he has allowed Iran to gain control of the strait.
The world is also a big loser as the production and supply of oil, refined products, LNG, and many other materials has been severely restricted. Add on restrictions from other events: Ukrainian attacks on Russian tankers and refiners; repeated shut downs of the crucial Kazakhstan pipeline; Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and tankers in the Red Sea; recent attacks on Libyan energy facilities; and the attack on LNG tankers in the Mediterranean.
The world has managed to offset some of these losses by drawing down reserves, but that cannot last forever. This drawdown to assist supply, plus the daily administration jawboning have been effective so far in keeping oil prices low. But low prices just encourage demand and hasten the eventual supply crunch.
Since the military option has failed, Trump now says he is willing to wait for the blockade to force Iran to give up control of the strait. This is just another lie. He doesn’t have that kind of time and he certainly doesn’t have any patience. Oil prices are going to face a lot of upward pressure as time passes.
In the meantime, all an individual can do is trade the extreme variability in oil prices; buying the dips and selling the rips. Canadian oil stocks have been great trading vehicles for this strategy.
Don’t worry, the not-war is ending very soon, probably tomorrow.
Is that tomorrow, Wednesday, next week, or tomorrow, Wednesday, next month?
Tomorrow, or tomorrow, or tomorrow.
It creeps in this petty pace from day to day, pretty much.
It’s not that we don’t have enough missiles to defend against any Iranian Regime threat or beat them into the desert sands, but that we don’t have enough if we should get into a new engagement were China decide that now would be a good time to take Taiwan.
However, there are serious efforts underway to fix this problem:
The only thing the Pentagram can “race” to do is spend money. PAC-3’s are made by hand. That’s why they cost $5 million – so Raytheon can make more money per missile in the Cost Plus manner in which they operate. They haven’t even started to ramp up production in the four and a half years of the Ukraine war – while we’ve been demanding back the Patriots we’d sold to other countries. They don’t have the factory capacity, so they’d have to spend a few years to build that – always being at risk that peace might break out. They also don’t have enough capable workers, and those are hard to come by when half the college grads can’t even write a sentence. The Defense Department has been issuing those kind of press releases for four years and they’ve largely been a bunch of bullshit.
So you and others complain we don’t have enough missiles but in response to spending increases to build more, you complain that we shouldn’t be spending money. TOO FUNNY!
This is the definition of cognitive dissonance. Look it up.
So at 8 negs from people who don’t want us to spend more to build more missiles? 🤣🤣🤣
So at 10 negs from people who don’t want us to waste more more money killing people.
Humans have been killing each other since the beginning of history. There is no reason to expect this to change anytime soon.
Modern killing requires high-powered weapons, which cost money.
Those who don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it.
Those who DON’T KNOW history, such as yourself, are left to post uninformed comments.
Four Important Things
———-
(1). Not true. Some weapon inventory has decreased (newsflash: that is what happens when you use things!) but we are nowhere near “out of missiles”
Here’s some real data:
(2), A few countries did ask for Trump to continue to negotiate. But as any sane person can see, negotiating with the Iranian Regime is impossible, so it is open to question whether these calls are still in effect.
(3). Midterms – The Dems are gift-wrapping Republicans the election with their rampant lefty socialism. Trump need not worry.
(4). The average person could not find Iran on an unmarked map and has no real knowledge of world political dynamics. All they know is did my favorite sport team win, what’s on TV tonight and are my living costs higher.
A sizable percentage of people are also railing against more AI data centers, even though they bring jobs to their area because they believe that these datacenters increase the cost of their electricity.
This is why the average American is referred to as “Boobus Americanus”!
ISR-Strike (as Colonel Douglas McGregor has been warning about for years) is changing everything. He has also sarcastically described the carrier forces as they approached Iran as a WW2 paradigm [in action]. Same applies to land and air forces. The Iranians have studied the American military-industrial system, noted its military and industrial vulnerabilities, and come up with the antidote thanks to the tech revolution. Russia has been doing the same in Ukraine after some hard early lessons. The empire is naked and the world is taking note.
no problem with data centers? ok lets put one in your back yard
Iran has a straight, Trump has a pair of douches. Their names are Bessent and Hegseth.
Iran has a straight, Trump has a pair of Uno cards, both with the number 0 on them.
He has 4 of a kind with Kushner and Witkoff.
CJW, you have the post of the day!
I wouldn’t choose to phrase it “a Panama ship.” How about a Panama-flagged ship? Isn’t that somewhat like a Liberia-flagged ship — could be anyone’s?
“Panama is the world’s most prolific flag state by both tonnage and number of ships ….”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Panama-flagged_cargo_ships
Trump believes he has time? There is a speeding wave approaching: the midterms.
Trump’s vaunted executive orders cannot do end runs around all of the domestic consequences of that, even with a post-midterms slim GOP Senate majority and a sometime SCOTUS majority..
I still don’t understand why oil prices are not spiraling upward now, with this alleged bottoming of strategic reserves. Do traders have faith in Trump and Iran as mutual negotiators? Is Hormuz not that crucial?
I too do not understand why oil prices have not risen. Supposedly China’s demand destruction is a factor?
Well that’s the thing. It’s a pressure cooker and when the pressure gets too high, the price of oil will blow sky high and there won’t be any way to solve the problem except a global depression.
The Strait will still be closed, Iran will have the finger on the trigger of blowing up Saudi/UAE/Qatar oil assets.
This is why I have positions in oil and have been selling calls on spikes and buying them back on dips but we’re running out of dipping room. Things will either blow sky high by October or trump will cave and give Iran whatever it wants.
Then again, Iran may tell Trump to pound sand and live with $150/b oil.
Prior to Trump’s war, China had been buying and storing more oil than they needed. That’s why the have > 1B barrels in reserve. Once the Strait was closed, they stopped filling their reserves. Also, almost every other country – including the U.S. – has been draining its reserves. The reserves are running out, so that is coming to an end
A market trend can continue longer than you can stay solvent.
Its oil stock was likely around 1.5 billion barrels before the war began and it is importing more coal.
Chinese purchases of oil increased in July. China could, at any time, reenter the international oil market and cause headaches for Western economies. They have chosen, so far, to do essentially the exact opposite. They still get oil from Iran. They have relied on using oil from their immense reserves. What they have used so far is the proverbial drop in a bucket, but that amount, small versus their reserves, has been huge in holding down global oil prices.
Do you think he gives a rat’s patootie about the midterms? Why would he? He is going batsheet crazy after them regardless of what happens in them.
He cares about the Peace Prize, is all I can figure out for his behavior.
Recognizing you don’t understand something is a good first step to recognizing that therefore, you should not be posting about subjects that you don’t understand.
You need to take that first step.
What about Iran’s demands is outrageous? They seem perfectly reasonable to me.
Iran’s demands haven’t really changed much from what was agreed to in the MoU.
As long as the markets don’t seem to be crashing, Trump will keep staring at his phone, waiting for Iran to call and beg him for a deal. Of course, that will not happen, and some day soon Trump will run out of patience. At that point he will have a decision to make: surrender or attack.
Trump will probably blame AT&T.
ATTACK! NOW!
The “outrageous” part is that unlike everyone else, Iran is working to hold Trump accountable. Trump’s supporters feel he is owed as being treated “above the law” and they are offended whenever it is suggested he has any flaws or has made any mistakes.
so funny watching half of amerika be in a cult of the apprentice reality teeeeveeee star. you’re fired.
Which shows how misguided you are.
After what trump did I think it reasonable to ask that him and his family be delivered for trial in Iran.
I think this sums it up https://imgur.com/a/PQZTRXx
purely market manipulation; nothing more, nothing less
Trump doesn’t care, as long as Israel doesn’t jerk his leash.
Sure, the poors suffer, but Trump could not care less about anyone not part of the Epstein Class.
So WHAT exactly is the leverage that Israel holds over Trump? Betcha got nothing.
The leverage is all about what is in Epstein files, those files we will never see… And it has nothing, or very little, to do with the Trump’s personal part in it. It is about America as we don’t know her… about her real power structure.
Give it up on Epstein. He’s dead and no one really cares.
Anything in the Epstein file certainly wouldn’t be something monumental enough that Netanyahu/Israel could hold over Trump’s head.
Next idea?
The videos Israel holds shows Trump repeatedly performing fellatio on 8 – 9 year old boys. He apparently enjoys it as much as his mentor Cohn did. Apparently Trump is concerned that his followers may not find that kink appropriate for a US President. I think he’s nuts. His followers would love it. But, of course, he doesn’t ask me.
To publicly write something this gross shows how strongly you are afflicted with TDS. Feel sad for your family. If you have one.
Things are bad in Iran, but they have food, water and medicine.
Prices are high, jobs are scarce and there are rolling blackouts for a couple hours every day.
At least in South Tehran.
the iranians I talk to think a deal is imminent, and that Trump is going to cave.
They are wrong. Israel is happy to burn the entire world down as long as Iran is destroyed. Trump is happy to burn the world down, as long as The Files remain secret.
Agree with the first part but frame the files differently.
The files became public long enough for people to download and analyze. Everyone but trump cultists already presume trump fucked underage girls and harassed them at any age. The files, the files — they change nothing for a man that will never see the inside of a jail.
The files themselves are a stage prop. AFAICT, the primary use is narrative. It gives Trump supporters (not you, yes I remember and never thought you were a trumper anyway) a reason to make excuses for the person they voted for. It helps them continue to believe the person they voted for is some kind of lawfare victim.
The Files presumably confirm what we all long suspected.
This is the same strategy that the US has been using against Cuba for almost 70 years. It has had much less success in Iran, a larger and more powerful country.
i visited cuba circa 2016. a time warp. i hear the chinese are there now in a big way.
Amazing to see all the 1950s automobiles still being used. Modern American cars are way too colorless today.
agree. those young taxi drivers keeping the 50s autos running using refrigerator and assorted parts……must be the best mechanics on planet. i was amazed. my kid went to college there for a year. real eye opener for us all.
Usonia delenda est.