Peace talks are cancelled. But Trump extends the cease-fire anyway. 
Indefinite Cease-Fire
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Extends Iran Cease-Fire Indefinitely With Peace Talks in Limbo
President Trump said that the U.S. will extend its cease-fire with Iran and continue the blockade of the country’s ports until its leaders present “a unified proposal.” The move came after Vice President JD Vance paused plans to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for negotiations with Iran over ending the war, highlighting uncertainty about possible talks. Regional mediators led by Pakistan raced to try to convince Iran to join the talks.
Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. forces boarded an oil tanker in the Indo-Pacific region that was previously sanctioned for working with Iran, the first such move outside the Middle East in connection with the war. Trump, in an interview with CNBC, said he wants to make sure the threat from Iran is ended even if it means the war doesn’t wrap up quickly. “I have all the time in the world,” he said.
Trump Statement
Truth Social: STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP:
Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 21, 2026, 2:09 PM
Expected Result
Yesterday, Trump repeated his on again, off again, on again, off again (sorry I lost count) to resume bombing , wipe out Iran’s infrastructure, etc.
The threat had the expected result: More Tacos.
Market Reaction
This time the market did not think much of Trump’s nonsense. Nor was the result that bad. Modest stock market gains turned to modest losses.
The 30-year bond market did its usual thing: Yawn no matter what stocks or oil do.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil, however, did move up another three percent to 90.46.
WTI will head back towards or above $100 if nothing is resolved soon. Since nothing will be resolved soon, oil will soon head back to $100 or above.
Some leveraged traders are making a fortune (hint: Illegal Trump administration insider trading). Others are getting blown out of the water. But market manipulation never changes anything over the long haul.
Summation
- No war
- No peace
- No ships
- No oil, LNG, fertilizer, or helium
Summation Hat Tip Jim Bianco
Charlie Kirk Flashbacks
Mindless Chatter
Trump now appears to have adopted a waiting game. Of course, that could change tomorrow, if not two minutes from now.
This now doubt will have all of the mindless 5D chess advocates proclaiming victory for the nth time.
Not only is this blockade supposed to hurt Iran, it allegedly will crush China too.
Mindless chatter on X is endless. For example …
Robin Brooks has a 100% failure rate on touting Russian sanctions.
Regrets, I Had a Few, and One Worth Mentioning
Musical Tribute
Some readers have asked for more musical tributes. I think this one works.
Tucker has regrets. Trump doesn’t. And Trump is sure doing things his way, making a total global mess along the way.
Hello Robin Brooks
Iran does not have elections to worry about. Trump does. None of the Trump cheerleaders have realized that simple fact.
Sanctions or blockades have rarely achieved regime changes, and even then only after decades. Here are a couple of alleged successes.
- Apartheid South Africa (1980s–1990s): Broad, multilateral sanctions, combined with internal unrest and economic isolation, forced the white minority regime to negotiate the end of apartheid, leading to a democratic transition.
- Haiti (Early 1990s): Intense economic sanctions and the threat of military intervention helped force out a military dictatorship and restore the elected government, according to a Reddit post citing historical sanctions analyses.
However, in 1940-1941, extreme US-led oil and resource embargoes intended to stop Japanese aggression instead backfired, forcing Japan to decide between retreating from China or attacking Southeast Asian oil fields, leading to the attack on Pearl Harbor
Saudi Arabia can use a pipeline to avoid the strait, but that does not hold for other nations or other exports.
The Waiting Game
The Trump administration is overlooking the fact that all exports through the strait are shut off.
Fertilizer, helium, urea, natural gas, and aluminum are all impacted.
It’s not a matter of who is hurt more, it’s a matter of who can take the pain longer.
Brooks repeatedly makes this error. Nations did not have the will to enforce sanctions on Russia. After preaching initial success, Brooks turned to moaning about sanction enforcement.
Now he claims Trump should have blockaded Russia instead.
This is what happens when you have nothing but economic theories but are clueless about how the real word works. And Brooks is clueless about the real world.
Trump in the Last 24 Hours
China Has a Say
Another key point that all the cheerleaders miss is that other players have a say. This is why Russian sanctions failed and why this Trumpian tactic won’t work either.
China will not take too kindly to having it’s oil turned off.
If China feels the pain enough it could send a military escort. Alternatively, it can quietly turn off rare earth element exports the US needs for military equipment, microchips, plane guidance systems etc.
Trump backed down on tariffs twice when China did that.
What Are the Goals?
No one really has any idea what Trump’s goals are because they keep shifting.
But weeks ago I proposed the top short-term goal of Iran was to inflict as much damage on Trump as possible.
Long-term, Iran wants control of the Strait. Trump made Iran’s long-term goal plausible.
Short-term, the longer this continues, the more inflation pressure in the US.
Iran is happy with Trump’s unilateral TACO.
Related Posts
September 26, 2024: To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail
Let’s discuss a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will.
April 20, 2026: Are Talks With Iran Agreed to? Trump Says Yes, Iran Says No
Apparently, only one side needs to agree to have talks.
April 19, 2026: UAE Under Dollar Stress, Investigates a Currency Swap with the Fed or Treasury
Emirati officials speak with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about accessing dollars if Middle East conflict drags on.
By the way, please add that problem to the list of things Robin Brook’s economic model did not factor in.
Iron Mike has some advice for Robin Brooks:
“Social media made y’all way too comfortable with disrespecting people and not getting punched in the face for it.”
“Trump Indefinitely Extends Cease-Fire.”
Translation: U.S. needs more time to re-arm and get more troops into the area so it can continue to literally destroy Iranian civilization like Trump said.
It’s a fake one-way ceasefire. The U.S. fired at an Iranian ship. That’s not ceasing the fire.
“This no doubt will have all of the mindless 5D chess advocates proclaiming victory for the nth time.”
Trump plays zero dimensional chess. He looks at himself in the mirror, smiles, points at himself, and says “Great decision! You look like a guy with a lot of class!” You now have insight into the depth of Donald Trump’s thinking.
Iran has already won. Trump’s a major loser.
– Peace talks are cancelled. But Trump extends the cease-fire anyway. > Old news happened yet again. Trump didn’t get what he wanted, so he changed the rules. He has given His credibility away, while not only ruining any chance of any deal, he has also pissed off other Countries, and that also includes His Own!!! “Why” is the jeopardy question of the decade!
– President Trump said that the U.S. will continue the blockade of the country’s ports until its leaders present “a unified proposal.” > They are extremely unified, and they keep telling you that with the same 2 letters: “NO” they have remained steadfast if nothing else, and their unity shows “Bigly” as one would scream, if he could…
– We have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran. > I have therefore capitulated yet again, and will do as I am told yet again, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted. I do have less than 4 years, I know…
– Iran Is Not Winning. It Is Unraveling. > Yes, to a point so far, but gains strength with every slow down.
– We are told that Tehran is winning a war of wills. > isn’t it?
– Donald Trump is gambling recklessly with the world’s most sensitive chokepoint. > Yes, He is, and with false threats, no unified party on his side, creating additional potential enemies, costing the U.S. a lot as well, Etc. This is the definition of being reckless, I think…
The Iranians have Trump over an (oil) barrel. This happens when you go to war with an asymmetrically committed enemy. The US military “degraded” Vietnam and Afghanistan for 20 years, and remember how it all ended with those horrific scenes from Saigon and Kabul. Let’s hope we don’t need 20 years to come to our senses in this particular case. If not, Trump will be long gone by 2046 or so, but we would be paying the bills for a long and completely stupid war.
People need to realize what Trump is doing is making this worse. He seriously should have used this (his statements that Iran’s govt is so fractured it can’t negotiate) as an exit point.
But he is doubling down on the blockade strategy.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the bombing will start again sometime before the end of summer. Probably even next month, but I’ll give it till the end of summer (or sooner).
Bombing resumes this weekend if not sooner. The U.S. has not negotiated in good faith, attacked/seized an Iranian vessel, and continues its “blockade” (realistically not that effective). Thus from Iran’s perspective, we are intent on continuing the war. Furthermore, Iran has already promised retribution for the blockade. Supposedly there was a drone attack but I think it’s likely it’s not over. Once the ceasefire expires, Iran goes on the attack against any naval vessels still in range
71 degrees today. Oiled the bicycle chain and rode 24 miles roundtrip to a meeting. Let’s see those Mullans do that. (Sarcasm?) Maybe.
How long is it going to take for the average “joe” to realize that taco is nothing more than a big bully who lies on a consistent basis with no backbone whatsoever. All he can do is make idle threats and fire those who do as he tells them to do once the heat is on. The fact that someone of his lack of character and humanity could be elected president will forever be a black mark on the US.
Susie Wiles finally took away his RISK game and hid his Magic 8 Ball.
What if the goal is to crash the system so bad it must be scraped and rebuilt differently than before, and in the mean time loot as much as they can?
Because none of this makes any sense at all, but that America, and the west, is afraid to confront Russia (have we all forgotten Ukraine who is a huge supplier of grain to the world) and China directly. And don’t forget Trump was also there from the start with Ukraine.
It’s all a wash and if this is the best they can do to solve problems (western leaders) we are (westerners are) doomed. The end result will be tyranny, digital identification/currency, 24/7 surveveillance by both camera and ai.
The dark age 2.0 will come just to circumvent the chaos these (our) dumb leaders are bringing to the world.
Calling out Trump, musical tribute, deep analysis, my god man, we have the trifecta in a post!
3-Star Mishelin award granted! Keep giving the readers what we want!
As I have often said, albeit in another context “thank god for tacos”.
Can’t wait to hear Jojo the clown’s newest explanation of this! Let me take a crack at it while we wait:
Funny how he kinda types like the big Don, ain’t it?
The blockade is supposedly still in effect, but ships are still transiting the strait with Iranian permission (and some without) Including Iranian tankers.
The Schrödinger’s Straits of Hormuz (open or closed depending on who is speaking) can be simultaneously open, letting ships through, and simultaneously closed, blocking them all. If you look too closely, it might go kaboom!
You’re not thinking in 5D Papa.
Not many ships, though. I hadn’t heard of any ships going through without Iran’s permission. The strait is effectively closed.
Today three ships with permission. As many as 9 more without permission, based on some tracking sites.
Yesterday, I watched 6 cruise ships make a break out along the coast of Oman. And a few others.
There are still 800 ships trapped inside the Gulf. I do not know how the trapped ships are providing food and water to their crews.
Every day that passes means 10+ million barrels of oil, and many other key products not being shipped.
Trump is floundering, clearly mentally ill and declining rapidly. Mood swings from belligerent threats, to conciliation, to feigned indifference. He has no idea how to move forward, so he is confabulating military successes and engaging in negotiations that exist only in his imagination.
Iran would be smart to ignore Trump’s schizophrenic outbursts and keep communications to an absolute minimum. They can sit back, watch the global economic damage accumulate and let the pressure build. Trump’s mental breakdown makes the US incapable of coherent strategy or negotiations. Time is clearly on Iran’s side.
There are unconfirmed reports that Trump on Saturday demanded options for a nuclear strike and General Dan Caine told him ‘no’. Larry Johnson said he heard this from two separate sources. Of course on X everyone comes out of the woodwork attacking Larry’s character and that he’s just another spook out to get Trump. Frankly, I’ve been watching Larry for a few years now and find he’s been both knowledgeable and generally correct on the course of events (first Ukraine, then Iran). Although we may never get confirmation from an official source, I do not see any reason to doubt this happened given Trump’s apparent cognitive decline and fits of anger the past 3 weeks. He’s out of good conventional options and desperate to find a way out of this being seen as a winner.
The extension is to look good in public while Navy ships are in transit. Additionally, pause give the US and Israel more time to locate high level Iranian leaders to minimize collateral damage to civilians.
“minimize collateral damage to civilians”. OMG.. hahahha. That’s a good one!
Damn I got beaten to my post above by the other circus clown.
I must admit, as a bullshit artist you have some skill.
Well done. Complete bullshit, but still well done.
How does this look good to anyone? To his fans he looks like a chicken shit weasel. To adults he looks like a child.
Mish, I figure you’re probably aware that Trump posted “My Way” on Truth Social this past weekend. People were speculating what he meant by it (similar to art critics trying to interpret the aftermath of monkey poo flinging). Is the end near?
Inshallah
Does anyone with a working and functioning brain still support Trump? Please respond with your reasoning.
If they supported Trump at any point, they never had a fully functioning brain. And since the brain deteriorates with age, they are all far below functioning at this point.
it’s insults like these that don’t go unnoticed. remember the other party had the wide open borders and boys/girls confusion, loves criminals, loves fraud, supported a president that couldn’t utter a sentence even if the current guy utters constantly shifting sentences. I could easily argue the same “functioning brain” comment to those that supported Biden/Harris. why play along with the deplorable pieces of garbage maggots nonsense when you have other cogent points to make?
it’s actually simple…I still support him on the things I always supported and I still disagree with those things that are bad policy, unconstitutional or inflammatory.
this back-and-forth nonsense on Iran with eyes toward the gas prices/stock market on the daily is maddening. imagine the profits you must be making playing the daily shift in sentiment!!! Trump no-likey the market going anything but up and really doesn’t like gas prices. Problem is with the latter…they ain’t moving much and the damage has been done politically…
i still wouldn’t be short oil with confidence for longer than a day
and i would argue i have a fully functioning brain.
Tick-tock
Time favors Iran and fractures the west