Let’s review the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act and Trump’s waiver.
Lindsey O. Graham Act Key Points
Tariffs
- On Russia (Section 112): Requires the President, within 30 days of enactment, to raise duties on all goods imported from the Russian Federation by up to 500% ad valorem (on top of any existing duties).
- Secondary tariffs on third countries (Section 113): Authorizes tariffs of up to 100% ad valorem on all goods from countries that (1) were among the top five importers (by volume) of Russian-origin crude oil or natural gas in the prior 12 months and knowingly make new purchases after a specified date, or (2) were among the top five facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. A limited natural-gas exception applies for countries accounting for less than 15% of Russia’s total gas exports that are taking significant steps to reduce those imports. Rates can be adjusted for changes in behavior; determinations are reassessed periodically (generally every 180 days). These tariffs also stack on top of other duties.
Sanctions and Restrictions on Russia
- Blocking and visa sanctions on senior Russian government and military officials (including the president), oligarchs, and leaders/controlling shareholders in the defense, energy, and transportation sectors, as well as foreign persons supporting Russia’s defense industrial base, sanctions evasion, or activities undermining Ukraine.
- Sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia and major Russian banks (including Sberbank, VTB Bank, Gazprombank, and other government-affiliated institutions), plus secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions conducting significant transactions with them.
- Measures targeting the Russian “shadow fleet” of vessels used for sanctions evasion (owners, operators, insurers, crew, servicing ports, etc.).
- Prohibitions on new U.S. investments in Russia, U.S. persons purchasing Russian sovereign debt, trading certain Russian government-linked securities on U.S. exchanges, and certain energy-product exports/reexports to Russia. Many of these codify or expand existing restrictions. paulweiss.com
Iran Provision
- Extends the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (targeting Iran’s energy sector and efforts related to weapons of mass destruction/advanced conventional weapons) through December 31, 2031.
Flexibility, Waivers, Termination, and Exceptions
- Broad presidential national-interest waiver authority for the sanctions, restrictions, and duties (requires a written certification and explanatory report to Congress).
- Authority to terminate Russia-related measures after certifying that Russia has signed a peace agreement accepted by the free and independent Government of Ukraine and has ceased military hostilities and efforts to overthrow, dismantle, or subvert that government (subject to congressional review and potential joint resolution of disapproval).
- Exceptions for humanitarian activities, intelligence/law-enforcement, certain nuclear cooperation and uranium imports, official government/UN business, pre-existing general licenses, good-faith wind-downs/divestitures (during a 270-day period), vessel/crew safety, and other specified cases. paulweiss.com
The Act’s Let Russia out of Jail Provision
| Mechanism | Basis | What it requires | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Termination provision | Russia signs a peace agreement accepted by the free and independent Government of Ukraine and ceases military hostilities and efforts to overthrow/dismantle/subvert that government | Presidential certification + report; subject to congressional review and potential joint resolution of disapproval | Permanent termination of the Russia-related measures |
| National-interest waiver (Section 115) | Presidential determination that a waiver is in the national interests of the United States | Written certification to Congress that the waiver is in the national interest plus a report explaining the basis for the certification | Temporary or ongoing waiver of the application of the sanctions, restrictions, or duties (can be lifted later) |
Mish Position
Most cheered the Lindsey Graham Act.
Not me.
I was against the Lindsey Graham bill due to my often-stated position that sanctions don’t work. They have never in history resulted in a regime change for the better.
I was also fearful of the provision that Trump would find a way to do whatever he wanted with tariffs, and that Congress was foolish to give Trump more tariff toys to play with.
Eleven Senate members shared my concern.
Vote Overall Breakdown August 7, 2026
- Yea (for): 86
- Nay (against): 11
- Not voting: 3 (Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Mitch McConnell (R-KY))
Those Voting Against
- Republicans (1): Rand Paul (R-KY)
- Democrats/Independents (10): Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Ed Markey (D-MA), Jon Ossoff (D-GA), Alex Padilla (D-CA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Peter Welch (D-VT), Ron Wyden (D-OR) govinfo.gov
Opposition centered mainly on the new tariff authorities granted to the President rather than opposition to Russia sanctions themselves.
An amendment by Rand Paul and Ron Wyden to strip the tariff provisions failed earlier that day 32–64.
Trump’s Executive Order Exempting Russia
Those, including me, fearful of tariff shenanigans have already been proven correct.
On October 16, Trump Issued an Executive Order on Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act
The executive order waived the new tariffs and most of the new or codified sanctions provisions under the Act, certifying that the waivers were in the national interest.
Practical Result
The practical result of the Graham Act plus the waiver is Trump has sided with Russia on the war.
That is my assessment.
I asked Grok and Grok disagreed. I then asked Grok to factor in Starshield throttling that started mid-October 2026).
Starshield Throttling
Reports indicate that around October 12–14, 2026, speed/connectivity limits were applied to moving terminals (roughly above 100–160 km/h).
Ukrainian officials said this hampered drone operations and air-defense intercepts against Russian Shahed drones and other strikes, and they linked it to political pressure over Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and related ceasefire or energy talks.
Connectivity was later reported as partially restored.
Also, Trump agrees to buy Russian diesel, giving Russia more ability to fight longer, potentially prolonging the war.
Grok Responded
The Starshield episode adds a contemporaneous restriction on a critical U.S.-controlled communications capability that Ukraine was using for defense. Combined with contemporaneous reporting of possible diesel arrangements with Russia and friction over energy strikes, the sequence is more consistent with the administration using leverage (or withholding tools) to shape Ukrainian behavior and pursue its preferred negotiation track than with maximizing immediate military/economic pressure on Russia.
Whether this amounts to “siding with Russia on the war” remains a judgment that depends on the weight one assigns to stated U.S. negotiation goals, energy-security considerations, and the continuation of prior sanctions versus the non-use of new tools and the temporary degradation of a key Ukrainian capability.
The Alleged Ceasefire
Russia Pounds Ukrainian Energy Despite Ceasefire
The Wall Street Journal reports Russia Pounds Ukrainian Energy Despite Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian strikes had hit energy infrastructure across his country hours after President Trump declared an energy ceasefire between the warring sides.
The Russian attacks—including on gas infrastructure, a power plant and a substation—come as the U.S. heaps pressure on Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, and after Trump moved to allow Russia to export diesel to the U.S. in a bid to drive down American prices at the pump.
The Wall Street Journal Weighs In
Please consider Trump Waives Most Russia Sanctions Passed by Congress (Emphasis Mine)
President Trump is halting implementation of most of the sanctions that were to be imposed on Russia under a bipartisan bill he signed last month.
The announcement came in an executive order on Friday night, and was part of a broader pivot by Trump toward courting Moscow as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine and keep energy prices under control ahead of the midterm elections.
In the executive order, Trump stated that waiving implementation of most aspects of the law was “in the national interests of the United States.”
The decision follows Trump’s surprise announcement to buy Russian diesel fuel after striking a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and comes as he continues to pressure Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to end the war that started when Russia invaded.
“A U.S. sanctions blackout, easing pressure on the aggressor, financial rewards for Putin—all of this only encourages him to keep attacking,” Zelensky wrote on social media Saturday morning.
Rep. Don Bacon (R., Neb.), who is retiring after this term said, “The President is prolonging the war, not ending it.”
The president has been facing bipartisan backlash in recent days over the diesel deal, his call for Zelensky to step down and his demand that Ukraine observe an energy ceasefire that Moscow promptly broke.
Siding With Russia? You Make the Call
Trump has threatened pressure on Russia countless times only to back down. Now Trump has undoubtedly removed pressure on Russia while putting one-sided pressure on Ukraine.
So, does this amount to siding with Russia or not?
Regardless, Trump’s pledge to end the war on day of his presidency is exposed as a hoax.
And the Lindsey Graham bill made a further mess of things as predicted in this corner. This is one of those things you prefer to be wrong about.
Backlash has begun, but it’s too late. The bill as written lets Trump do whatever the hell he wants.
Only one Republican Senator got this correct, Rand Paul.
Related Posts
October 12, 2026: Trump Humiliated by Putin Within Hours of His Ceasefire Announcement
Trump wanted a ceasefire so he announced one. Putin immediately ignored it.
October 12, 2026: We Export 48 Million Barrels of Diesel per Month, Why Import from Russia?
Importing Russian diesel is illegal. There is no real need anyway.
October 16, 2026: Trump Has a 91% Disapproval Rating from Voters Under 30 on Inflation
“The worst I have ever seen in any poll, on any issue for any president”
Mosh, I love ya, but give progressive Dem senators credit where credit is due!
I know you think Warren Sanders et al are lunatics, but at least they are against wars and dictating by divine right (or whatever)
The Trump–Putin Diesel Deal Isn’t What You Think
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-trump-putin-diesel-deal-isnt-what-you-think/
Well, that’s great. Trump and Putin are, if not the adults, the big men in the room. They should work together to stop the killing. Zelensky presumably deserves to be hanged.
It seems to me to be pretty childish to pass a law just because it is what a recently dead senator, however beloved, would have wanted. I don’t suppose that is what was really going on, but that is the way it was presented to us.
This sort of war in Europe, in which two European nationalities are slaughtering each other for the amusement of a Jewish actor who has managed to wangle himself into the position of head of government of one of them, is horrible. I do realize that it is important for an empire to be able to test out new weapons and keep its military skills up to date, and that that is what America has been doing here.
Russia attacked and you know it. If you want to love Putin, fine, that’s your choice but don’t come spouting nonsense that zelensky started this war.
The idea that trump and Putin are somehow the adults in the room is insane. Trump is a greedy toddler, as shown by his actions over the last 10 years.
Tell me that I’ve been reading Russian propaganda, but as I understand it, Zelensky bombarded the Russian-speaking breakaway provinces with artillery, and killed 14,000 people, after the “Minsk accords” were signed. The “Minsk accords” were a time-buying exercise, and the Americans and the Germans used the time gained to train the Ukrainian military in fighting the style of war they have been fighting since. In other words, the Russians were double-crossed. Putin would be a fool to trust the West again, particularly as he knows that the whole idea is to subsume his country into America’s decadent empire, just as Germany and most of the rest of Europe have been subsumed into it, to a greater or lesser degree. Germany is now very decadent, except for still working hard, which Germans seem to be incapable of not doing.
Trump may not be the greatest abstract thinker, but as a practical man he is a damn sight better than you or me.
Sure dude,
The guy who was a comedy actor is the mastermind here
Not The the Cold War spy master who’s been dictator of his country for decades with an iron fist…
We have the memory of a fruit fly.
Three weeks ago, it was widely reported that Russia is importing diesel instead of exporting it. 25 to 50% of the Russian refining capacity is gone. How are they supposed to be now selling diesel if they are importing it and their refineries are still getting targeted? The Russian diesel export is not worth considering seriously.
The question becomes why Trump made an unexecutible and if occured is miniscule.
1) The amount of fuel supposed to be sold by Russia is a drop in a bucket.
2) The US is a net exporter of diesel with approximately 20% of the world’s available supply. This means if Trump imposed a diesel ban, US companies would suffer from not being able to take advantage of the windfall.
3) Without the diesel export ban, the US is subject to world prices.
4) Most of the world’s population buys subsidized fuel. Government subsidies cause artificial shortages of subsidized fuel.
5) US inventory of diesel (distillate fuel oil) is down only 14% from last year. We 105,138,000 barrels or 4,415,796,000 gallons in storage.
Possible side effects of the non-deal.
Ukraine – Might be more pliable to make a deal to end the war. 1,000 people die a day, and 1,000’s more are casualties
.
Europe – Sends them a message that they need to use their reserves and not let the US once again bear the cost of their defense. They let their natural gas reserves so low they may run out this winter. (i.e. poor governance).
Russia – We can be trusted as a neutral party.
China – Use your oil reserves and issue permits for export to your refineries.
The implications run deep for a deal that will never be executed.
To me, this is the most fascinating part of the article
Trump believes he is a King, a God, who creates his own reality. If the mainstream press didn’t enable him, if they openly mocked him to his face when he makes ridiculous statements, he would melt down like Chernobyl
Agreed, all press that is funded by corporate ads is not trustworthy. Not because journalists are nefarious, quite the opposite in my experience, but because they are paid for eyeballs and attention, not information.
Granted good luck finding anyone independent without heavy slant (see this blog). The game is to know that slant and adjust.
I may not agree with some (lots?) of Mish’s points usually, but he is intellectually consistent and honest
Wait until after the midterms.
Russia is foolish to fall for it, again.
“ Trump agrees to buy Russian diesel, giving Russia more ability to fight longer, potentially prolonging the war.”
This is grossly misunderstood. Trump’s purchases of diesel means jack squat to Russia’s prosecution of war. Ukraine will fall regardless of what we do. Russia has not yet tapped its full escalation potential, and yet we are now seeing the results of their attrition strategy with the ongoing collapse of Donbas defenses. Combined with an effective full Black Sea blockade and destruction of energy infrastructure, Ukraine is on the ropes and we could see the siege of Kiev by spring.
Trump is likely a Russian asset on some basis. He is either a spy, on the payroll, or being blackmailed.
Please read my other answer.
Holy cow. The comment system ate it. Too much discussion of the Epstein files?
@Mish, did it go into moderation? Hopefully you can retrieve it.
Nah, the Orangutan is just envious of the managed Russian democracy and its autocratic presidency.
Aside from the merits or otherwise of the Ukraine conflict, for Trump, every one must be loyal to him, but him not loyal to anybody. And he is dragging us down into this personal mental sinkhole of his. It is the revenge of Roy Cohn, who uncovered vulnerabilities in our system. Those vulnerabilities involved us at least trying to be decent people, treating others as we might like to be treated.
I know, there are countless exceptions in US and world history. but my argument stands. Trump at last openly abandoned any decency and continuity in relations. He has no shame, no regrets, and that is an awful deficit, past a point. And he exemplifies the new predators in our world, the new opportunistic pathogens that feed on decency and good will. All the sacrifices and lessons of the 20th century are being thrown in the trash.
Sorry I became a dick 5 or so threads ago, peelo.
uniparty, we’re cool! You stir up the best stuff.
I respect sharp elbows when there is a sharp brain attached.
Lindsey Graham = War Monger
Finally.Trump does something right.
Rot in hell Lindsey. Hope your bakin’ with McCain and the rest of the sludge.
Gives income to a country that is building drones for Iran to use against our soldiers?
Yeah, this will help.
Fair play. Iran is a strategically important partner of Russia. We are the interlopers illegally waging war on Iran, who has shown great restraint so far re: killing of U.S. soldiers.
We have no business fighting Russia or Iran
War criminals deserve the noose, but drones will do for now.
The Lindsey Graham “Putin kompromat” conspiracy used to sound ridiculous. After the latest administration shenanigans, it smells a lot more plausible. At this point, conspiracy forums are probably halfway through a screenplay involving KGB tradecraft, mysterious poisonings, and enough plot twists to make a spy thriller blush.
Soviet puppetry at its finest. We have joined the Union.
Ignoramus. Modern Russia has little to do with the USSR, and Putin is not Stalin.
Jeez, not one for humor are ya
Vintage trump who always sucks up to dictators who he emulates.
i think Trump takes some sort of pleasure in undercutting people he thinks of as weaker or more vulnerable than himself. I would love to have been a fly on the wall in his house, with him and his brother there, the weak one who couldn’t bring himself to carry out the father’s ambitions of killer instinct. The brother dutifully started knocking down that community amusement place, and it broke him. Little Donnie was there to step up, to step on and step over whoever and whatever.
Nah, he just wants lower oil prices so Republicans don’t get slaughtered in the mid-terms. This man has no principles.
Which is why I say, just wait until after the midterms.