This isn’t random. So what is it? 
There have not been that many polls in the past week or so. I watch Texas every day and it has barely changed for a week.
Texas Polls
The latest Texas poll is eight days ago.
Iowa Polls
I don’t see any reason for Republicans to drop from 59 percent to 55 percent in the past three days.
There was a new poll in South Carolina that shows Graham barely leading in South Carolina but no one seems to believe it.
South Carolina
Would you believe South Carolina is a tossup? That’s what the polls say.
What’s Going On?
The betting markets are reacting to something.
- Would you believe Ohio backlash?
- Trump can barely fill small venue auditoriums?
- Pollsters fearing another big miss are overcompensating Republicans?
- Early Voting?
I don’t believe South Carolina is a tossup but I would not be shocked if Graham lost.
I suspect it’s a combination of all four points above.
Blatant stupidity by Trump and on the Ohio Governorship ads is now filtering through nationally to women.
Please note Poll Shows Voters Switching in Ohio Governor Race After Ramaswamy Attack Ad
I believe the impact is beyond Ohio.
Voter Enthusiasm
Point two is really about voter enthusiasm. And enthusiasm is anemic among traditional non-MAGA republicans. Many will not show up to vote.
I get that sense every day on Twitter. Something changed with the war, diesel, and tariffs. More Republicans are breaking with Trump on multiple issues.
Disillusioned Blacks and Hispanics who switched to Trump in 2024 now see Trump for the liar and self-serving corrupt opportunist that he is.
Where Do Points One, Two, and Three Show Up?
I will talk about early voting later today, but that’s what I think is going on.
Analyzing early voting is fraught with error, but which way is the error?
Voting by mail, a traditional Democrat strength, is down. With all the mail threats by Trump, why wouldn’t it be? This election, Democrats are more inclined to vote in person, a big reversal from past elections.
A huge mistake people are making in Texas (which by the way does not disclose party) is looking at alleged Republican leads (based on County), instead of looking at this year vs prior years.
I suggest points two, three, and four are starting to show up where it matters, actual votes, and the betting markets have picked up on this.
Not Certain, Just Likely
I am going to up my odds of Democrats winning the Senate from 65 percent to something higher, but I am not sure what yet.
Anyone who thinks most of the races in my lead chart are tossups is overly fearful. These late breaks, all going the same way is convincing.
Yet, my base case remains the same. The single most likely outcome is Democrats pick up six Senate seats. Eight would not be a shocker. Neither would just four or even three.
But at this point, any polling error is more likely to be against Democrats than another Democrat overcount. Winning 6-7 seats is much more likely than only 2-3.
That’s what the polls say and the betting markets say. Easily visible enthusiasm confirms this is not 2016 or 2024.
The election is about Trump, his policies and his graft, not Hillary, not Biden, not communism. Trumpanomics failed, and that’s undeniable to all but the most delusional MAGA voter.
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America could afford, and had its fun, with the ignorant playboy circus barker clown king. Now its gotten too expensive, financially and reputationaly, so the citizenry is getting back to voting their wallets. The USA is a country of fantastical ideas and temporary delusions, some good and some bad, its in our DNA. Its our superpower and achilles heel. Checkout the book “Fantasyland (a history of the usa)” sometime. Hopefully more sane times ahead with less violence and deception and more decency
Is it possible that MAGA has retreated to their age old practice of hiding in the shadow?
What I mean by that is they hold the same opinion but they won’t advertise or disclose that to anyone who doesn’t have the secret handshake. The KKK has been doing for 150 years but they still exist and recently became more visible via Proud Boys, Oath keepers, etc. Now that Trump is in trouble they’ll just wait it out until the 3rd.
I don’t know and I don’t know the secret handshake but I’m not quick the drop my guard either. Maybe paranoid but I have my reasons.
Or did they learn the $5000 check is not happening?