The Betting Odds Are All Breaking the Same Way, Towards Democrats

This isn’t random. So what is it?

There have not been that many polls in the past week or so. I watch Texas every day and it has barely changed for a week.

Texas Polls

The latest Texas poll is eight days ago.

Iowa Polls

I don’t see any reason for Republicans to drop from 59 percent to 55 percent in the past three days.

There was a new poll in South Carolina that shows Graham barely leading in South Carolina but no one seems to believe it.

South Carolina

Would you believe South Carolina is a tossup? That’s what the polls say.

What’s Going On?

The betting markets are reacting to something.

Would you believe Ohio backlash?
Trump can barely fill small venue auditoriums?
Pollsters fearing another big miss are overcompensating Republicans?
Early Voting?

I don’t believe South Carolina is a tossup but I would not be shocked if Graham lost.

I suspect it’s a combination of all four points above.

Blatant stupidity by Trump and on the Ohio Governorship ads is now filtering through nationally to women.

Please note Poll Shows Voters Switching in Ohio Governor Race After Ramaswamy Attack Ad

I believe the impact is beyond Ohio.

Voter Enthusiasm

Point two is really about voter enthusiasm. And enthusiasm is anemic among traditional non-MAGA republicans. Many will not show up to vote.

I get that sense every day on Twitter. Something changed with the war, diesel, and tariffs. More Republicans are breaking with Trump on multiple issues.

Disillusioned Blacks and Hispanics who switched to Trump in 2024 now see Trump for the liar and self-serving corrupt opportunist that he is.

Where Do Points One, Two, and Three Show Up?

I will talk about early voting later today, but that’s what I think is going on.

Analyzing early voting is fraught with error, but which way is the error?

Voting by mail, a traditional Democrat strength, is down. With all the mail threats by Trump, why wouldn’t it be? This election, Democrats are more inclined to vote in person, a big reversal from past elections.

A huge mistake people are making in Texas (which by the way does not disclose party) is looking at alleged Republican leads (based on County), instead of looking at this year vs prior years.

I suggest points two, three, and four are starting to show up where it matters, actual votes, and the betting markets have picked up on this.

Not Certain, Just Likely

I am going to up my odds of Democrats winning the Senate from 65 percent to something higher, but I am not sure what yet.

Anyone who thinks most of the races in my lead chart are tossups is overly fearful. These late breaks, all going the same way is convincing.

Yet, my base case remains the same. The single most likely outcome is Democrats pick up six Senate seats. Eight would not be a shocker. Neither would just four or even three.

But at this point, any polling error is more likely to be against Democrats than another Democrat overcount. Winning 6-7 seats is much more likely than only 2-3.

That’s what the polls say and the betting markets say. Easily visible enthusiasm confirms this is not 2016 or 2024.

The election is about Trump, his policies and his graft, not Hillary, not Biden, not communism. Trumpanomics failed, and that’s undeniable to all but the most delusional MAGA voter.