This morning, I was trying to make sense of the discrepancy between the polls and the betting markets.
From everything I could tell at 3:00 AM this morning, the betting markets were more confident Democrats would win the Senate than what I could tell from polls.
This afternoon, that changed.
What Happed with New Polls?
CNN Texas: Talarico D+6
CNN Maine: Jackson D+4
CNN Kansas: Hamilton D+4
CNN Michigan: El-Sayed D+7
BJPP Texas: Talarico D+2
Activote Texas: Talarico D+4
Upswing Michigan: El-Sayed D+5
MSU Michigan: El-Sayed D+9
A2 Texas: Talarico D+3
ECU South Carolina: Graham R+4
Co-Efficient Iowa Senate: Hinson R+2
Q: Am I Really Surprised? A: Of course not.
The betting markets moved first and the polls caught up.
The Betting Odds Are All Breaking the Same Way, Towards Democrats
Pollsters fearing another big miss are overcompensating Republicans?
Early Voting?
Not Certain, Just Likely
I am going to up my odds of Democrats winning the Senate from 65 percent to something higher, but I am not sure what yet.
Anyone who thinks most of the races in my lead chart are tossups is overly fearful. These late breaks, all going the same way is convincing. [Even if we don’t know why – added October 29]
Yet, my base case remains the same. The single most likely outcome is Democrats pick up six Senate seats. Eight would not be a shocker. Neither would just four or even three.
But at this point, any polling error is more likely to be against Democrats than another Democrat overcount. Winning 6-7 seats is much more likely than only 2-3.
The election is about Trump, his policies and his graft, not Hillary, not Biden, not communism. Trumpanomics failed, and that’s undeniable to all but the most delusional MAGA voter.
Today we can add #5. Someone knew about these polls. Alternatively it’s #4 and #5 or #5 plus the combination I discussed today.
Texas Polls Today
Compare the chart I posted above to the following (new polls added today in yellow highlights).
A friend commented that there was no polling justification to have Texas at 65 percent. OK perhaps, but there was betting market justification.
And surprise, surprise. There is both betting market and polling market agreement today. Four new polls. I missed YouGov at D+8 in my lead chart.
Silver averages that at +3 Talarico. That’s reasonable. But it does not factor in early voting which I strongly believe is going Democrats’ way.
Texas Synopsis October 29
Kalshi: 70 percent
Polymarket: 70 percent
Nate Silver: 74.9 percent
Mish: 72.5 percent (wondering if way too low)
Look at things this way. If Texas is 70 percent, the odds of Democrats winning the Senate are easily in that ballpark.
I expect Cook Political will put Texas in the “Lean Democrat” column in the next day or two.
Texas has not been a tossup state since at least mid-September by the betting markets. And I was well ahead of that because of the way I expected Hispanic voters would break.
The polls and betting markets now both reflect what I thought would happen.
I find the title ridiculous. What the hell does a safe bet on politics even mean?
There is no such thing as a safe bet on politics unless you have inside information or are skilled enough at analyzing things to overcome the house edge which always takes something off the top.
A question that candidates and voters may be asking is: Will pollsters or the prediction markets provide the most accurate forecasts? To assess this question requires a deep dive into both approaches.
Polling has evolved over time, yet its basic premise remains the same: sampling a group of people from which a prediction about an election outcome can be drawn. A sample of 1,000 people typically results in a plus or minus three-point margin of error. This means that in close races, like one where candidate A is polling at 49 percent, Candidate B is polling at 47 percent, and 4 percent are undecided, the margin of error dampens the value of polls as a predictive tool. There are many such races in this election cycle.
Prediction markets take an entirely different approach. People trade contracts based on a yes/no question. The balance between yes/no bets determines the price of contracts and the effective odds of winning. Prediction market contracts are priced between $0 and $1, which reflects the market’s estimate of a candidate’s probability of winning. For example, if a contract trades at 60 cents, the market assigns that candidate a 60 percent chance of victory. Note that prediction markets do not provide a margin of error for their forecast.
Looking back, prediction markets were assessed to be more predictive than polls for the 2024 presidential election. One possible explanation is that odds are set by people placing bets on who they believe will win. This contrasts with polls, where people are sampled by pollsters and asked questions about candidate preferences. This means that voters who place a bet are self-selected hoping to win money, while voters have no real choice on whether they are sampled by pollsters.
The bigger issue is whether people who engage with prediction markets are representative of the people who will vote. This then begs the question: Is money being wagered based on who bettors believe will win or who they want to win?
[That paragraph above is nonsense. It is not an issue at all. Indeed, it is a certainty people making bets are not representative of voters. So what? Do skilled horse traders need to be jockeys or do they just need to understand horses and jockeys?]
Given that anyone with access to a prediction market platform can place bets on the election, barring state restrictions, while only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote, there is no reason why prediction markets should serve as a reliable prediction tool. [That is more nonsense, explained in detail below]
Understanding the Betting Markets
Betting markets are right more often than not because people with key information are going to drive a majority of the cases.
This is not speculation. There’s empirical evidence.
It’s not a matter of being “safe”. It’s a matter of probabilities, winning more times than not while not blowing too much on on a single bet. Money management comes into play.
I financed my way through college playing poker. No single game was a sure thing. But I had an edge over time.
I played in games where most of the time I knew without a doubt I was the best player at the table. That does not ensure a win. I lost sessions. But I won far more often than I lost, and my average win was much greater than my average loss.
I would not have an edge today in high stakes hold-em. It’s a different league and I am smart enough to know I do not belong in it.
Overall, findings suggest that Polymarket was superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, particularly in swing states. Results are in alignment with research on ”Wisdom of Crowds” theory, which suggests a large group of people are often accurate in predicting outcomes, even if they are not necessarily experts or closely aligned with the issue at hand. Overall, our results suggest that betting markets, such as Polymarket, could be employed to predict presidential elections and/or other real-world events
Prediction markets produce remarkably accurate forecasts, but the source of this accuracy is poorly understood. Two explanations dominate: crowd wisdom and insider trading. Using the universe of Polymarket transactions, we show it is neither. Instead, accuracy comes from a minority of persistently skilled traders, around 3% of accounts. Unlike insiders, whose private edge is localized, these traders exhibit depth and breadth. They react to public news when it arrives, eliminate law-of-one-price violations, and trade against the crowd’s behavioral mistakes. The crowd, in turn, generates most of the volume but little of the information, and its losses fund the minority’s profits.
Understanding Wrong
The betting markets provide information, on average, whether you believe it or not. That’s not every time, it’s average.
If the odds are 60 percent, then 40 percent of the time the bet will go the other way. It is not “wrong” to bet on 60 and lose.
In 2016 I did not have Trump as the winner. I was in the 45 percent range or so (with most giving Trump almost no chance). Yet, I was repeatedly told I got it wrong.
But wrong or right is not being right on the outcome, it’s in understanding mispriced odds.
I still maintain that were it not for Comey’s last minute email bombshell, Hillary would have won.
In contrast, the pollsters were wrong. They truly underestimated Trump’s odds of winning.
The edge is not in 60 or 40 because the payout reflects that. The edge is in finding a market where the odds themselves are wrong. It’s not the easiest thing to do. Emotions and desires get in the way.
I did place a bet on Trump in 2016, not because I thought Trump would win, but because I thought Trump had a much better chance than was reflected in the odds.
So, although I thought Trump would lose, I bet on him because I thought he was underpriced. That’s getting it right, for the right reason.
In 2020 I bought Biden at 10 cents on the dollar because I thought that 10 cents was an absurdly low price. I held Biden all the way.
My edge, assuming I have one, is understanding the economy and how it applies to elections.
Alaska and Kansas Yet Again
All year long, I sided with the betting markets vs Nate Silver on Alaska. The betting markets were much higher than Silver and still are.
I side with the betting markest. My reason was quality candidate on top of Republican woes of all kinds.
I applied the same logic to Kansas as I did Alaska and stuck with it (no bets this year but reflected in my articles).
Adam Hamilton is the senior pastor of the Resurrection, a United Methodist Church, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, with multiple locations in the Greater Kansas City area.
Mish’s Four-Point Take
Hamilton is a popular minister and a moderate.
Democrats could not possibly have picked a stronger candidate.
Trump’s policies are extremely unpopular in farm states.
Marshall is viewed as too supportive of Trump.
I am calling this a tossup, for now.
Unlike others who call 40.1 to 59.9 percent a tossup, I mean a range of 48-52. Forced further, I will take Hamilton as the 52.
On October 5, Polymarket was 33 percent on Hamilton and Kalshi was 35.5 percent. I stuck my neck out and called tossup. More specifically, I said “I will take Hamilton as the 52.“
That new Kansas poll today confirmed what I thought to be true.
Maybe I was just lucky, but the betting markets just caught me. Regardless, it was a market I thought to be mispriced, and was.
I intended to discuss early voting today (which is going Democrats’ way) but that will be tomorrow as I wanted to discuss these new polls.
Nate Silver called audibles in the same direction and mostly for the same reasons I did ahead of him on Ohio, Alaska, Maine, and Iowa.
I feel pretty good about that. Silver also shifted Kansas but I didn’t. I am now 10 or so points higher on Kansas vs his Deluxe model but still at tossup level.
That’s sad. George Friedman’s “geopolitics” says that political realities are bigger than leaders, and Isaac Asimov’s “psychohistory” says the same. It seems that a competent leader (Dick Nixon, Ron Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Don Trump) can halt the slide for a few years, but then it resumes. Machiavelli thought that there was no point in trying to cure a decadent society after a certain point, because you would have to kill too many people to do it.
Maybe some sort of alliance can be cobbled together between the remains of the old civilization and the people of Latin America and India. Other than that, it looks as if we shall all eventually be liquidated by the East Asians. That’s natural justice.
Evolution usually consists of the development of varieties of a species in isolation, and then the destruction of some of the varieties when they come into contact again. Our political silliness and complacency (thinking that we are safe and can indulge in nonsense such as women’s lib, paper money, and racial equality) seem to guarantee that we are going to be the variety that goes under now.
yippee
7 hours ago
one of your best blog posts of all time. i used to love when nobody knew about betting on politics and i had to use london bookies and then some nascent websites for punting. i felt like i was taking candy from babies betting my arrogant friends. i read some actual textbooks back decades ago, had some chapters which explained why gambling on politics was more accurate than pundits and polls. wish i remembered the book. no surprise you were a good poker player. i loved playing poker in junior and senior HS against all my pals. big advantage when you know the players propensities……….
Omega
11 hours ago
It looks like reality has caught up with the AI bubble as well.
As I recall from the dot com bubble, it was when basic electronics manufacturers such as Jabil, Flextronics, CLS and SANM sold off that the market collapsed.
Earnings have peaked and it’s down-hill from here. The might plunge protection team is struggling to keep things afloat for the election, but the problems with AI are now mainstream.
Gold is collapsing due to the anticipated spike in oil and its effect on strengthening of the dollar. Miners will suffer under the slow motion increase in rates. Now, if Trump TACOs on Iran then this is a really good place to buy gold.
Insurance companies are already evaluating the risks at the data centers for when the companies who own / lease / operate them go under. “LLC” – see you later – not!
Just wait till NVDA reports earnings on November 17th. Should be interesting. 👀👀👀👀
JCH1952
11 hours ago
The most informative poll out there is all the federal and state elections that have occurred since the day Trump started his 2nd term. The Democrats have won a solid majority of them regardless of how wide Trump’s margin of victory in that state, city, county, district, etc. Republicans naively believe polls can only be wrong when a Democrat leads in the poll.
DaveFromDenver
11 hours ago
I believe Trump will be gone by Christmas. The House (controlled by the Dems) will vote to Impeach. The Senate with 52%+- Dems will start the trial and at least 4 RINOs will do what is best for the US. Which is to also vote to convict (at the last minute) because that is what is best for America, not them. Trump will be gone before he can attack the RINOs. But the RINOs won’t vote to get rid of Vance. If the Dems get 60% or more, “co-conspirator” Vance is gone too. That (God help us) will give total control of everything to the Dems, who will add states for more Senators and 4 more members to the Supreme Court.
Illegal wars / war crimesEpstein etcWH Ballroom / Cheesecake Factory (i think this is where Slotkin was going)If he pinched some old lady’s @ss in the elevator in Goldblatt’s Bargain Basement 60 years ago.?
He has a lock on the old, scared, selfish white demographic though. With all their cheating, it might be enough.
TEF
14 hours ago
How will an equity crash on 3 November 2026 affect Republican voting in states with small plus polls like South Carolina?
Silver, not Nate, is down 4% today and 71 dollars since its 121 USD peak in late Jan 2026. That 58-59% loss should provide qualitative bell weather guidance to the ongoing direction of asset valuations – with the notable exception of US sovereign debt whose purchase at 5.3-5.7% in early October (near the SPX 6 Oct 2026 peak) will be realized as a most prudent investment.
peelo
18 hours ago
All these narratives of the functional sensible Democrat candidate are pushing in a short time against the counter-narratives built in red state voters’ minds for years.
Isolated scenes like the Alaska candidate names mess, El-Sayed’s mere presence, and Trump’s last-minute California voter citizenship certification ploy, amplify those old red narratives.
Right now i am 50/50 on whats going. Could be shadiness by the dems. Could be some sort of deep republican plot / could be just some guy with the same name looking for 15 min of fame and trump is taking advantage of situation.
Seems there is some fired aid or something says he has screen shots of dem conversations. But even that can be faked. If its not backed up phone records ill call bs. Ak is a small state population wise. I would think the truth would be bouncing around. Does not seem to be concerning until now. The guy has made it through ranked choice this far
Old Mayor Daley I trick, multiple names with ‘-ski at the end.
tboneman
20 hours ago
But how will they settle the bets when Trump declares all the lost Senate seat election results fraudulent, sends ICE or the military or FBI to impound the voting machines, and declares investigations will be required, and makes sure that they drag on for years. Or employs some other means to nullify the elections?
He can’t allow such losses to actually take effect, because it will mean endless investigations exposing his family’s frauds.
If he can’t prevent the winners from taking office, he will simply ignore Congress completely. Who will stop him?
” … he will simply ignore Congress completely. Who will stop him? …”
One can foresee maybe a stalemate, a constitutional crisis with court orders conflicting with executive orders. Trump has the shortest handle on the armed federal officers, but some prominent defectors might have to openly defy him if he pushed it.
Quite a scene to see Trump family fleeing the country.
Senior democrats told LBJ you will be impeached and removed if you run for reelection. LBJ stepped down and happy Hubert was defeated in his place. Maybe this will be a post-election model for Trump. Suffer removal or resign. I’d look for much violence and property destruction if this happens.
He would be quickly impeached and removed if he hadn’t already been removed via the 25th Amendment. The military chain of command would ignore him and any illegal orders. You guys need to tamp down your fever dreams.
Fever dreams?
I don’t take such defiance of orders so easily, for granted. Trump could make complicated claims, making it very opaque and indecipherable to armed officers. They might choose to resolve complex questions of fact in favor of default behavior. They could default to obeying formal commands.. Who in the cabinet will go for the 25th? All pretty shaky, contingent stuff.
I’d be more interested in knowing if in fact W shows his face at any 9-11 memorials. Cheney and Rummy are gone, but his office wife Condi is still around.
W paints portraits of wounded warriors. His painting has at least gone to vaguely passable, after many years of awful slop. I can’t imagine what’s in his brain about that.
CJW
21 hours ago
Polling questions are answered with your heart. Betting is done with your wallet in mind.
Nice article. They will impeach POTUS and appoint more special counsels and investigators They will not release the Epstein files. Will they take us out of Iran & Ukraine or will it be more Russia, Russia, Russia and mostly peaceful student protests like France? Will they stop the looting or double down?
It’s astonishing to see GOP talking points so barren they repeat themselves without rhyme or reason like this. What’s next, the transification of the youth? Furries flying planes? Notice how the economy (idiotic tariffs, disaster wars with Israel, inflation) is mysteriously absent from these points. Are we supposed to act like the president isn’t openly robbing the coffers either?
That’s sad. George Friedman’s “geopolitics” says that political realities are bigger than leaders, and Isaac Asimov’s “psychohistory” says the same. It seems that a competent leader (Dick Nixon, Ron Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Don Trump) can halt the slide for a few years, but then it resumes. Machiavelli thought that there was no point in trying to cure a decadent society after a certain point, because you would have to kill too many people to do it.
Maybe some sort of alliance can be cobbled together between the remains of the old civilization and the people of Latin America and India. Other than that, it looks as if we shall all eventually be liquidated by the East Asians. That’s natural justice.
Evolution usually consists of the development of varieties of a species in isolation, and then the destruction of some of the varieties when they come into contact again. Our political silliness and complacency (thinking that we are safe and can indulge in nonsense such as women’s lib, paper money, and racial equality) seem to guarantee that we are going to be the variety that goes under now.
one of your best blog posts of all time. i used to love when nobody knew about betting on politics and i had to use london bookies and then some nascent websites for punting. i felt like i was taking candy from babies betting my arrogant friends. i read some actual textbooks back decades ago, had some chapters which explained why gambling on politics was more accurate than pundits and polls. wish i remembered the book. no surprise you were a good poker player. i loved playing poker in junior and senior HS against all my pals. big advantage when you know the players propensities……….
It looks like reality has caught up with the AI bubble as well.
As I recall from the dot com bubble, it was when basic electronics manufacturers such as Jabil, Flextronics, CLS and SANM sold off that the market collapsed.
Earnings have peaked and it’s down-hill from here. The might plunge protection team is struggling to keep things afloat for the election, but the problems with AI are now mainstream.
Gold is collapsing due to the anticipated spike in oil and its effect on strengthening of the dollar. Miners will suffer under the slow motion increase in rates. Now, if Trump TACOs on Iran then this is a really good place to buy gold.
Insurance companies are already evaluating the risks at the data centers for when the companies who own / lease / operate them go under. “LLC” – see you later – not!
Just wait till NVDA reports earnings on November 17th. Should be interesting. 👀👀👀👀
The most informative poll out there is all the federal and state elections that have occurred since the day Trump started his 2nd term. The Democrats have won a solid majority of them regardless of how wide Trump’s margin of victory in that state, city, county, district, etc. Republicans naively believe polls can only be wrong when a Democrat leads in the poll.
I believe Trump will be gone by Christmas. The House (controlled by the Dems) will vote to Impeach. The Senate with 52%+- Dems will start the trial and at least 4 RINOs will do what is best for the US. Which is to also vote to convict (at the last minute) because that is what is best for America, not them. Trump will be gone before he can attack the RINOs. But the RINOs won’t vote to get rid of Vance. If the Dems get 60% or more, “co-conspirator” Vance is gone too. That (God help us) will give total control of everything to the Dems, who will add states for more Senators and 4 more members to the Supreme Court.
I can agree with all of that.
Will the impeachment trial be about:
Illegal wars / war crimesEpstein etcWH Ballroom / Cheesecake Factory (i think this is where Slotkin was going)If he pinched some old lady’s @ss in the elevator in Goldblatt’s Bargain Basement 60 years ago.?
New congress is not seated until January.
From your lips to God’s ear.
That has all the looks of a trifecta bet on three pass completions. Not my style of prognostication.
I’m really hoping Lindsey Graham’s dipshit sister loses.
I do think she accurately represents the voters of South Carolina.
she does. i lived there for a decade. strom was 100 year old senator, when i was there.
According To Early Voting – Trump Has Lost:
The Hispanic Vote
The Black Vote
The Youth Vote
Young People Don’t Want To Be ‘Cannon Fodder’ In Zionist’s Trump’s Forever War’s.!
Automatic military draft registration was to take effect in December 2026.!
Both Parties Just Merged ‘US/Israeli’ Military Under NDAA (2026).!
25 Year ‘War Of Terror’ For ‘Greater Israel’ Land Grab (Control Middle East Oil Supply).!
Iraq WMD Lies ( 2001) To Iran WMD Lies ( 2026).!
US Troops Told ‘Iran’ War Is ‘Armageddon’ – (Samson Option).!
(‘FINISHING OFF – Iran’) Gen W. Clark 2001
We apologize for our midterms interruption. Our regularly scheduled war crimes will resume shortly.
https://truthout.org/articles/senator-briefed-on-trumps-iran-war-plans-warns-of-devastating-escalation/
The two months after the election will be the most dangerous. It may impede Trump’s impulse to wage war when Hegseth is impeached.
He has a lock on the old, scared, selfish white demographic though. With all their cheating, it might be enough.
How will an equity crash on 3 November 2026 affect Republican voting in states with small plus polls like South Carolina?
Silver, not Nate, is down 4% today and 71 dollars since its 121 USD peak in late Jan 2026. That 58-59% loss should provide qualitative bell weather guidance to the ongoing direction of asset valuations – with the notable exception of US sovereign debt whose purchase at 5.3-5.7% in early October (near the SPX 6 Oct 2026 peak) will be realized as a most prudent investment.
All these narratives of the functional sensible Democrat candidate are pushing in a short time against the counter-narratives built in red state voters’ minds for years.
Isolated scenes like the Alaska candidate names mess, El-Sayed’s mere presence, and Trump’s last-minute California voter citizenship certification ploy, amplify those old red narratives.
Right now i am 50/50 on whats going. Could be shadiness by the dems. Could be some sort of deep republican plot / could be just some guy with the same name looking for 15 min of fame and trump is taking advantage of situation.
Seems there is some fired aid or something says he has screen shots of dem conversations. But even that can be faked. If its not backed up phone records ill call bs. Ak is a small state population wise. I would think the truth would be bouncing around. Does not seem to be concerning until now. The guy has made it through ranked choice this far
Old Mayor Daley I trick, multiple names with ‘-ski at the end.
But how will they settle the bets when Trump declares all the lost Senate seat election results fraudulent, sends ICE or the military or FBI to impound the voting machines, and declares investigations will be required, and makes sure that they drag on for years. Or employs some other means to nullify the elections?
He can’t allow such losses to actually take effect, because it will mean endless investigations exposing his family’s frauds.
If he can’t prevent the winners from taking office, he will simply ignore Congress completely. Who will stop him?
” … he will simply ignore Congress completely. Who will stop him? …”
One can foresee maybe a stalemate, a constitutional crisis with court orders conflicting with executive orders. Trump has the shortest handle on the armed federal officers, but some prominent defectors might have to openly defy him if he pushed it.
Quite a scene to see Trump family fleeing the country.
Wow Melania hanging on to a helicopter rudder like the escape from Vietnam! Bring it on, great TV.
Hopefully she can wear her “I don’t care” jacket.
It would only take one hero in the secret service to end him.
Senior democrats told LBJ you will be impeached and removed if you run for reelection. LBJ stepped down and happy Hubert was defeated in his place. Maybe this will be a post-election model for Trump. Suffer removal or resign. I’d look for much violence and property destruction if this happens.
He would be quickly impeached and removed if he hadn’t already been removed via the 25th Amendment. The military chain of command would ignore him and any illegal orders. You guys need to tamp down your fever dreams.
Fever dreams?
I don’t take such defiance of orders so easily, for granted. Trump could make complicated claims, making it very opaque and indecipherable to armed officers. They might choose to resolve complex questions of fact in favor of default behavior. They could default to obeying formal commands.. Who in the cabinet will go for the 25th? All pretty shaky, contingent stuff.
Susan Collins will not vote to impeach anybody.
I’d be more interested in knowing if in fact W shows his face at any 9-11 memorials. Cheney and Rummy are gone, but his office wife Condi is still around.
W paints portraits of wounded warriors. His painting has at least gone to vaguely passable, after many years of awful slop. I can’t imagine what’s in his brain about that.
Polling questions are answered with your heart. Betting is done with your wallet in mind.
… or with nudging pubic voting sentiment at an affordable price, in PR/advertising terms.
You don’t say! Why not hacking it to sway public opinion?
https://www.wired.com/story/polymarket-flagship-platform-hack-traders-lose-money/
Nice article. They will impeach POTUS and appoint more special counsels and investigators They will not release the Epstein files. Will they take us out of Iran & Ukraine or will it be more Russia, Russia, Russia and mostly peaceful student protests like France? Will they stop the looting or double down?
It’s astonishing to see GOP talking points so barren they repeat themselves without rhyme or reason like this. What’s next, the transification of the youth? Furries flying planes? Notice how the economy (idiotic tariffs, disaster wars with Israel, inflation) is mysteriously absent from these points. Are we supposed to act like the president isn’t openly robbing the coffers either?
Simple rejoinder: this is the nation that elected Trump. The red flags were there the whole time.
TRICK OR TREAT!