The latest New York Times / Siena College poll is a doozie. It has Trump in the lead. Let’s discuss why. 
Trump Slightly Ahead
The New York Times reports Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval, Times/Siena Poll Finds.
The survey finds that Donald J. Trump is retaining his support and that, on the eve of the debate, voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands.
Support for Harris Stalls
Nate Cohen comments on the poll in his take New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August. That’s a free link.
Is Kamala Harris’s surge beginning to ebb?
That’s the question raised by this morning’s New York Times/Siena College poll, which finds Donald J. Trump narrowly ahead of her among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent.
To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls.
There’s no way to know whether the Times/Siena poll is too favorable for Mr. Trump. We never know whether the polls are “right” until the votes are counted.
But the poll nonetheless finds that he has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top.
He’s more popular than before. Overall, 46 percent of likely voters say they have a favorable view of the former president. That’s down a tick from our last national poll, when 47 percent had a favorable view, but it still makes him more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020.
He has an advantage on the issues. We asked voters a two-part question. First, what’s the most important issue to your vote? Second, do you think Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump is better on that issue? By that measure, Mr. Trump has a five-point lead on the issue that matters most to voters, whatever that may be for them.
He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is “not too far” to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s “too far to the right.” Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s “not too far either way.”
He’s seen as the change candidate in a nation that wants change. While President Biden’s departure from the race lifted the spirits of many Democrats, the national mood still isn’t great. An overwhelming majority of voters still say that the economy is poor and that the nation is heading in the wrong direction. And a clear majority — 61 percent — of voters say they want the next president to bring a “major change” from Mr. Biden, compared with 34 percent who want “minor change” and 3 percent who don’t want change.
Only 40 percent of likely voters said Ms. Harris represented “change,” while 55 percent said she represented “more of the same.” Mr. Trump, in contrast, was seen as representing “change” by 61 percent of voters, while only 34 percent said he was “more of the same.”
The Mistakes of 2019 Could Cost Harris the Election
Nate Silver comments The Mistakes of 2019 Could Cost Harris the Election
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t think it’s worth it to write a story based on a single poll. But this one merits an exception.
The exceptions were:
- NYT/Siena is our second-highest-rated pollster.
- The poll has a large sample size: 1,695 likely voters.
- The poll is very recent, fully post-Labor Day and having completed its field work on Friday.
- The poll provides trendlines for comparison: the numbers are just a bit worse for Harris than the previous NYT/Siena national survey in July and considerably worse for her than a series of battleground state polls the Times conducted in early August.
- The NYT/Siena poll tends to singularly drive the media conversation about the race, given the poll’s well-deserved reputation for accuracy and the Times’s outsized influence in the media.
This morning’s NYT/Siena poll contained a pair of questions on whether voters think Harris is too liberal/progressive and whether Trump is too conservative. The numbers were lopsided in Trump’s favor. Only 32 percent of voters said Trump was too conservative, while 47 said Harris was too liberal. The demographics on this question are about what you might expect. Harris is faring poorly among white voters without college degrees, rural voters, and older voters: the types of voters who are plentiful in Blue Wall states like Pennsylvania.
Democratic messaging often suffers from the sheer abundance of potential attack lines on Trump, causing voters to tune out. The aforementioned whiny progressive media critics don’t seem to understand that elevating every minor controversy surrounding Trump only reduces the signal-to-noise ratio and makes them look like the boy who constantly cried wolf.
The last paragraph is interesting. Trump makes the same mistake.
Trump needs to stick to the inflation, housing, immigration, and education indoctrination. He just can’t do it.
Harris Will Be More Like California
Harris is attempting to run a generic campaign, pretending to be middle, yet promising everything to everyone.
She want to restrict immigration while supporting it. She promises to allow more fracking while attempting to placate the Greens.
California is a disaster, but everything she espouses translates to “more California” solutions.
Trump’s idea to bring in revenue via tariffs, is economic madness. But Harris can’t easily attack that because she wants more tariffs and a crackdown on China as well.
Anybody but Biden
The big surge for Harris was nothing more than a grateful mirage of “Anybody but Biden”.
The huge initial lead of Trump was the same thing.
So we had unsustainable surges first in one direction, then the other.
Trump vs Harris
Biden is out to pasture. Had Democrats had an open convention It would have neither been Biden nor Harris.
From here on out, Harris more than Trump needs to prove she has moved toward the center. It will be difficult at best for her to pull that off.
August 24: Vote for Harris if You Want Radical Racial Indoctrination of Your Kids
August 16: Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
More Inflation and More Indoctrination
That’s the winning message for Trump, if he can just stick with it.
As I was saying … it is all fake… look at this clip of Harris https://www.zerohedge.com/political/excuse-me-are-you-his-daughter-1995-clip-willie-brown-side-piece-kamala-resurfaces
She is EXACTLY what the men who run the world want in the fake democracy…
Someone who will do what they are told … cuz they want fame and fortune… functional idiots are the best!!! Trump is no different… Bush…
Obama was slightly different… he had a bit of ‘gravitas’…cuz that was what was called for after the Bush fake presidency…. but that was also just acting.. he is an ACTOR… a yes-man… they all are…
You are being played… this is a Ministry of Truth production
Why is Harris being called “too progressives’ instead of “Too far left wing”? Republicans are always identified as “right wing” or “far right wing”.
I wouldn’t call anything the New York Times is associated with “non partisan” including the weather forecast. Especially the weather forecast come to think of it.
harris bj’s for everyone!
Kamala is a bit dim. 10 watt bulb dim.
It is better for one to remain silent and appear a fool, than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.
Kamala is finally forced to open her mouth in the debate tonight.
Well, that is not surprising at all. That accounts for pretty much every Trump voter. They think that Harris is a communist even though she is just as much of a right-winger as Obama and BJ Clinton were.
“Calling Harris A Communist Is An Insult To Communism“https://freepress.org/article/calling-harris-communist-insult-communism
Communism should be insulted and Harris too. Harris is a Communist because Communism is just another form of Feudalism in practice. You have the elite completely controlling what can and cannot be done by the individual to a degree that far eclipses what happens in other systems. Suppression is necessary because the system defies human nature instead of working with it – without that it will implode.
Obama said he was 5 days from fundamentally changing America. There was nothing right wing in that statement.
Everyone can see Kamala is a 10 watt bulb.
Why the ‘one-two punch’ of Liz and Dick Cheney backing Harris matters
Campaigns are chasing any movement at the margins.
By Adam Wren and Megan Messerly
09/09/2024 08:20 PM EDT
Liz Cheney is hitting the campaign trail with millions of dollars at her disposal to defeat Donald Trump and down-ballot Republicans, aggressively taking on the MAGA movement that dominates a party where she, and her father, are no longer welcome.
Cheney has pledged to do anything she can to help Kamala Harris, and has resources to back that up — including a PAC that raised more than $3 million in the first six months of the year, according to FEC records.
It’s part of an unprecedented effort by one of the party’s former highest-ranking leaders to not only take down Trump but purge any trace of him from the Republican Party. GOP strategists and elected officials who share her opposition to the former president say Cheney’s campaign — including her and her father’s endorsement of Harris — could pave the way for members of their party to join their cause. A critical mass could be enough to move the needle in a tight election.
“It’s a true reflection of how bad Donald Trump is — to think about a Dick Cheney, who is as time-tested of a conservative Republican as anybody in the roster, to come out and take a stance to support, like myself, Kamala Harris,” said former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a Republican Harris supporter. “Look, the Republican Party loses no matter what. If Donald Trump gets beat by Kamala Harris — like I think is going to happen — the Republican Party loses. But if Donald Trump wins, the Republican Party loses even more: We’ll lose any and all credibility that we’ve got.”
…
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/09/liz-cheney-trump-kamala-harris-00178093
Dick Cheney coming out of his cave to support Harris should be a clarion call to real conservatives and progressives to rally around Trump.
Tulsi Gabbard said it best. A vote for Harris is a vote for Cheney.
Why would democrats want to vote for Cheney?
Duncan: “We’ll lose any and all credibility that we’ve got.”
Duncan doesn’t have any credibility, supporting a radical leftist, over his own party.
WIll TS be the next cult figure to replace Trump when he is ushered out to pasture? Seems likely.
If ever there was definitive proof that Harris is firmly entrenched in the neocon camp, support from the Cheney family is it.
It’s important to maintain the status quo.
FYI, Dick and Liz have no future in the Republican party.
If Trump loses to Harris, and the economy crashes in 2005, as seems likely, House and Senate Democrats will have two years to find new jobs. Kamala will be impeached. Balz will be told what to do, to finish the term.
“47 Percent of All Voters Think Harris Is Too Progressive”
What’s the margin of error with this poll? 10, 20, 30%?
Half of the country is conservative. Half of 50% is 25% How does this not add up to about 75%?
My gawd, who can believe in ANY polling nowadays? It’s all made up to fit The System’s narrative. For all we know Gemini is running The System with Obama acting the Puppet Master.
Wait, what happened to Mish admiration for Nate Silver? He has Kamala ahead nationally in the polling aggregate 48.9 to 46.6. That’s today. Where’s the love?
Mish is trying to get a hold of Jimmy The Greek for the odds. He was always in-tune on the race nuances.
Barack Obama’s half brother is voting for Trump. A simple headline of “Obama votes for Trump” is a powerful campaign message. Some will assume the ex-president is voting for Trump. Others in disbelief will read the article, and still be shocked the headline is actually true, but “Obama” refers to Barack’s half brother. Malik Obama entered the country legally and earned his US citizenship, which other immigrants will identify with.
This is the most bizarre election I’ve seen in terms of a house divided. RFK Jr’s family was not happy with his decision to run for POTUS. Tim Walz had 8 relatives publicly endorse Trump. Barack Obama’s half brother publicly supports Trump.
Party swaps are just as surprising. Former VP Dick Cheney (Republican) publicly announced he will voter for Harris. His daughter Liz (Republican) endorsed Harris. Alan Dershowitz announced he left the Democrats. And I’m sure I missed others.
Cheney going with swamp puppet Harris is hardly a surprise considering his daughter’s overt rejection of Trump – she’s likely Dick’s mouthpiece anyway on many topics.
Much more than that think she’s an idiot.
Kamala Harris plans to provoke Trump. It wouldn’t work. Tomorrow vp Harris will face an ex president, a businessman who will do business with 100 million voters in front of her. On the campaign trail he is a showman who entertains his followers.
I think he’ll turn the tables:
“Not being endorsed by Dick Cheney is one of the proudest moments of my life. When the main person who pushed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan picks my opponent, that’s a badge of honor. Anyone planning on voting for same person as Dick Cheney really ought to rethink it.”
All Trump has to do is ask Kamala whether she approves of Cheney’s death and destruction agenda, and why wouldn’t she distance herself, unless her plan is to take the US into WW3.
Not pointed enough: Avert nuclear war; Close open border; Rule of Law & Justice instead of lawfare; Uncensored freedom of speech.
Housing & inflation are not easily solved or characterized.
Indoctrination is too nebulous.
All of the above are of interest to Boomers, having lived through some 70-odd years and been more or less patriotic. Millennials are great at texting and sexing.
Dwayne The Rock just was in the news saying that we needed Trump’s courage after the asassination attempt. Rock is a lefty. They are starting to run from IF Forest Gump were a semi black woman …
Kamala as Gump? Gump was funny. Everyone she’s worked with says she a grump.
No he’s got it wrong. 47% of voters think she’s too stupid.
Trump will respect vp Harris. He will talk to her like an adult carefully talking to a crazy teenager who lost her bearings. If elected, he will be the chairman of the board. Vance will be the CEO. Trump biggest enemy is frog cooking, things that change very slowly and nobody recognize them. Trump has to sell his vision of this country in the next 5 years and 20 years, in a 4/5 punchlines, and how to get get there. Tomorrow he has convince a 100 million voters to believe in him and his plan. Trump didn’t laugh at Biden when he mumbled. Biden repeated “Trump is lying”, but lost !
I seriously don’t know who these supposedly educated white voters are who support Harris. You’d think that if they were as “educated” as is purported they’d recognize the parlous economic situation created by the Biden-Harris administration (and none too little aided by Trump and profligate Republicans) and that her policies would simply be doubling down on that negative outcome. It’s almost as if virtue signaling optics matters more to these people than actual sound economic, financial, and foreign policy. I guess I live in one of those areas where educated or uneducated white people are almost all decidedly not Harris supporters because I don’t know many people who view her as anything more than a glorified DEI hire with all the downside implications that brings to the table.
we traded educations for degrees years ago … greshams law affects everything.
Being educated does not mean smart, or wise, or clear thinking. Remember 80 million voted for a demented old man, who is still president. What does that say about the US?
They directly or indirectly make a living off of taxpayers or grift off of taxpayers. Hollywood, legacy media, NGO’s, homeless organizations, restaurants that feed them, corporations like Amazon that make the bulk of their money off of government contracts like the cloud and military contracts. The list is extensive. Trump is slightly better but he is also a printing machine.
It all makes sense if you use the equation educated = indoctrinated
Mr. Shedlock consistently advocates politicians sticking to the issues and avoiding childish and inappropriate personal attacks. They keep making the personal attacks. Is this because they’re inadequate as politicians, or because people are so base and ignorant that campaigning on prejudice, bias, anger and hate is the only effective way to get elected in America?
If only Mr. Shedlock were running for President…
“give the people what they want, but never give them what they ask for” … and that’s why Vince McMahon is rich.
I consistently underestimate the intelligence of voters. This time, I hope I’m wrong.
Well, he’s not, so we’re still left with the same two choices for people to choose between.
Kamala, AOC, and Bernie. I don’t believe grouping these 3 together is wrong in anyway shape or form. They are the three-headed socialist monster. And sometimes communistic. The lady initially proposed price controls as a solution for god sakes. God help us.
And let’s not forget the stellar lights and common sense of Elizabeth Warren who brings a nice fascistic set of economic policy prerogatives to the mix.
Heading into the 2008 financial collapse, Warren was flipping houses like pancakes. Remember this vividly. Pocohantas Capital LLC.
Why yes, the MAGA propaganda machine is very effective:
47% of all voters are Republicans; so only 1% didn’t get the memo.
What percentage of those still believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump?
What percentage realize he actually tried to steal it for himself?
What percentage do know but do not give a shit?
And a more pertinent final question:
I’ve heard of Republicans for Harris…
but have you heard of any Democrats for Trump?
the man who engineered Sept 11 2001.
Yes, I have heard of Democrats for Trump. They’re at least as common, if not more so, than Republicans for Harris.
Other questions:
What percentage of Democrat voters believe Trump engaged in collusion with Russia?
What percentage of Democrats believe that the entire Hunter Biden influence racket was Russian disinformation?
How many know the FBI lied under oath to a federal court and how many know that the administration’s letter from leaders in the intelligence community regarding Hunter Biden was entirely fabricated?
Further questions for the supposedly “thinking” Democrats out there to ponder:
how many think that Harris was either a) completely uninvolved in hiding Biden’s declining mental state, or b) was involved in hiding Biden’s declining mental state? If a) why was she so cut out of the power loop in the White House? If b) why do Democrats not care that she was intimately involved in deliberately deceiving the American people? Why should she be excused for being such a liar and deceiver?
These are good reminders, thank you.
Still not enough for me to change my vote to the gentleman who, while getting his stinger wet, tells the fetching porn-star that she reminds him of his daughter.
Then, later, leads his doltish followers into an unpopular, unsuccessful and pathetic ‘insurrection’ at the nation’s Capitol.
I am supporting the only candidate that intelligent investors with integrity can vote for: Cornel West.
All true, however, the reason why people do not know, is… yup, you guessed it. The meddling media.
the laptop was real.
we gave up dick cheney and got rfk and tulsi gabbard. we won that one BIG TIME, as my soon to be president would say.
Let’s imagine, for the sake of it, that the mass media fairly treated both candidates, and that Biden was evaluated as critically as Trump. The election was stolen, not by votes, but by a complicit media.
That Biden still occupies the White House, in charge of the most powerful country in the world, reflects on the US in ways you can’t imagine.
Boy that’s a big thumbs down for me, possibly the biggest of the year.
“I’ve heard of Republicans for Harris…but have you heard of any Democrats for Trump?”
Correction, sir, you’ve heard of RINOs breaking for Kamala. These people are not real conservatives. Piers Morgan wrote a scathing editorial about Dick & Liz Cheney breaking for Harris. Given all of the horrendous things Dems have said about Dick since GW2, it’s beyond rich and horribly hypocritical of the Dems to get excited about Dick’s endorsement of Harris.
As for real Dems breaking for Trump, well yes I can:
RJK Jr and his VP
Tulsi Gabbard
Bill Ackman
A lot of black men
Some black women
And the biggest one of all may be Dershowitz who says he will reveal his pick just before the election. I’ve got a Benjamin on Trump, especially if he has a good debate tonight devoid of ad hominems
I think she’s too dumb and cringey
Very cringe, Everything she says is cringe. And that weirdo Walz, he’s a psycho.
Kamala Harris has to repeat : “Trump is lying, Trump is lying, Trump is a convicted felon”. The D will salivate.
Don’t forget the BS that he’s Putin’s b!tch
Any non-progressive (D) would destroy Trump
Any non-MAGA (R) would destroy Kamala
Yet here we are watching the two America-hating extremes argue – the demigod (R) party taken over by Trump and his loyalists on one side, and the WEF Globalists taking over the (D)
When Putin endorsed Kamala last week one of the reasons he gave was all her laughs. He has something there – Americans love a show and laughs.
In 1965, 20 years after WWII, every character in Hogan’s Heroes was a comic, including the Gestapo with the little black mustache. The Soviets were much too dour such a show.
Dude. When Putin endorsed Kamala he was joking. You Yanks never get sarcasm or tongue-in-cheek 😂
There is no way Putin is truly for Harris
Putin is just trolling. He mentioned them pulling Biden out. And just falling in line with Biden’s endorsement of the new appointment. He’s dissing America as a democracy.
As for the cackles, obviously a jab at the inanity.
Putin is showing contempt masked by humor.
Putin’s sense of humor misses most people. His actual statement bears repeating:
“I said that our ‘favorite,’ if I may say so, was the incumbent President Mr. Biden. He was removed from the race, but he recommended that all his supporters support Ms. Harris. So we will do the same, we will support her… She laughs so expressively and infectiously that it means that everything is fine with her. And if everything is fine with her — then Trump has introduced so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia that no president has ever introduced before — and if everything is fine with Ms. Harris, then maybe she will refrain from such actions of this kind.”
Bottom line, he called her a weak half-wit, the same as BIden.
When listening to Her over the last couple Months, one could arguably state that She would become the most Progressive President in U.S. History.
While at the same time also being the 2nd coming of Gerald Ford (a bumbler). She’d also wind up as the 2nd least likely president after Ford (she wasn’t the party nomination either and backed into it like he did under similar circumstances when the president more or less abdicated their position).
I would suggest that the similarities end, in the fact that they both abandoned office in the month of August.
I believe the main thing is who can pull over the independents. Trump is quite rambling in his thinking which will contrast with Kamala who is very well spoken looking more presidential
Well spoken? The lady can barely give an articulate thought.
Where do you get the idea that she is well spoken? By following Lincoln’s famous maxim?
Sir, please put down the hash pipe.
Does that mean 53% think she’s just the right amount of progressive or not enough? Last time I checked 53 > 47.
I will re-iterate my demographic thesis, 5000 trump leaning boomers hit the graveyard each day, that’s a large number to have to make up over the last 4 years. Millennials now outnumber Boomers so it will be an interesting election. It is an inevitability that the highly diverse millennial group will eventually take over, and they are mostly incompatible with the MAGA movement.
But she is NOT TRUMP, which overrides.
If that was the case then why did Biden have to drop out?
Because he didn’t know what he was doing much of the time. Why are you asking this dumb question?
Harris was likely part of the team behind Biden that was and IS STILL making Presidential decisions because Biden isn’t any more capable than he was months ago..
You basically said the election choice is ‘Trump’ or ‘not Trump’. If that’s true then why did Biden have to drop out? Technically he didn’t need to since he’s not Trump and would suffice just as well as Kamala.
Harris is not a “progressive.”
She is simply working towards the same things Uncle Joe started working towards in the Spring of 1922.
Everybody unite, you have nothing to lose but your chains.
Trump’s first term was nothing but a disaster. How can people forget.
Where does scrapping the constitution and democracy fall on the Left to Right spectrum?
She’s central Left. She should not scare conservatives. He should…
…which is why so many former Republicans and his admin are against Trump.
Harris is radical left. Conservatives are not fooled by her current routine.
The debate tomorrow will be interesting, though I still probably will not watch it
The question is does the Dingbat Biden herslf or not
By which I mean come off as such an incompetent that the polls swing wider after the debate
She did it in the 2020 race where Tulsi Gabbard blew her up in the debate such that Harris dropped out
Can she be trained well enough to avoid it?
Tune in and find out. I doubt it. Supposedly she does not review anything prepared for her in real life. And maybe she will be overprepared.
In any event, whether the “CIA” is forced to resort to more violent means to keep Trump out of office may depend on tomorrow nights results.
I am buying beer and popcorn for Tuesday and avoiding chips.
I may not watch much of the debate, but I will watch the pre-game show and the post-game pundit analysts.
I think she’ll go for the low blows. The only thing she has going for her, is getting Trump upset enough to fall for her bait. It’s key he stays on point and level headed.
As a Californian, and one who has read Peter Schweizer’s books – she *is* incompetent, every bit as corrupted as Biden, every bit the liar that Biden (and Newsom) are. Newsom is also a foreign agent.
With more and more truths coming out in conservative-leaning media, such as Issues & Insights, RedState, and Revolver, the Lie Machine (TV, “news”) can’t cover for Democrats anymore. Their lies have been exposed.
BTW, when Kamala dropped out in ’20, left of Lenin Los Angeles Times published an article showing she had a 96% disapproval rating in California. In. California. We hate her here. If it weren’t for mail-in ballots only (Covid, into today), ballot harvesting, ranked choice voting in some counties, Dominion statewide, except for Smartmatic which is in Los Angeles County alone, and unions – Democrats wouldn’t have a chance. Our last Primary, we did actually start to flip back red.
Blah, blah, blah. I don’t care for Harris either and I also live in CA.
But this choice is simple- Trump or NOT Trump. PERIOD.
If the Republican had run almost anyone other than Trump, this race would have been significantly in their favor, instead of neck and neck, as it is right now.
We can’t know that because they could easily have gotten someone like Hillary that no one was excited about. There are plenty of other solid candidates but no guarantee any of them would have been the nomination if Trump wasn’t.
For that matter, if any of the rest of them were that electable then the primaries that Trump obliterated his competition in would have been a lot closer. But no one came close to winning a single state much less defeating him.
Closed mind. Block of Wood. Lives in CA. Now, it makes sense.
Bigger question: can Trump simply state facts and avoid getting lost on some personal attack tirade. Can he show some discipline in a debate or just throw out insults? I’m hoping he’s looking at the polls and what he needs to do and that people around him are telling him to stick to the facts because the facts do argue against her.
Discipline, Focus, and a Conservative — not right wing—Vision will win in November
Well, that rules out Trump on all three counts.
Trump has focus, just not the focus we all wish he had but he definitely has it.
Unfortunately Donald’s primary focus, and his secondary focus, is on Donald.