In yet another display of momentum for Trump, the New York Times has Trump tied nationally. 
Deadlocked 48-48
The New York Times reports Harris and Trump Deadlocked to the End, Final Times/Siena National Poll Finds That’s a free link.
Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 percent to 48 percent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as Ms. Harris struggles for an edge over Mr. Trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.
The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms. Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Ms. Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Ms. Harris’s position, if anything, may have declined among likely voters since the last Times/Siena College poll, taken in early October. At the time, she had a slight lead over Mr. Trump, 49 percent to 46 percent.
There are glimmers of hope in this final national poll for both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris. For Mr. Trump it is immigration: 15 percent of respondents named immigration as their top issue, up from 12 percent.
The poll included some encouraging signs for Ms. Harris as well. She has narrowed the gap with Mr. Trump on the economy, which remains the top issue for voters. Mr. Trump had a 13-point edge over Ms. Harris on which candidate could better manage the economy in the poll last month. That has shrunk to 6 percentage points.
How the Times Siena Poll Compares
That looks like a tossup, or perhaps even a small lead for Harris.
I disagree. It’s no worse than a small lead for Trump. Three-fourths of the polls have been breaking for Trump in the past few weeks, generally on the same issues, the economy and immigration.
Nate Silver discussed this today.
The Border May Tip the Election to Trump
Nate Silver says The Border May Tip the Election to Trump. Without the word “probably” I believe that’s an obvious “duh”, but let’s review his comments.
Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced sharp cuts to his country’s legal immigration quotas. The number of permanent residents admitted into Canada will be slashed by more than 20 percent, while temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half.
I know you probably weren’t expecting a newsletter about Canada. But when he saw the news about Trudeau yesterday, a friend texted me something along the lines of “This is why Kamala is going to lose”. And I think he makes a pretty good argument.
This [NYT] poll is hardly alone in showing Harris’s national lead slipping. Quite a few recent national polls show a tie or Trump slightly ahead, in fact. Here’s our table of national polls from yesterday’s model run, which doesn’t yet include the NYT data. There’s quite a bit of red if you scroll through the first two tabs, the polls that get the most weight in our average.
Since NYT/Siena polls are among our highest-rated surveys, it becomes tough to make the case that Harris’s problems are concentrated only in low-quality polls or Republican-affiliated polls that are “flooding the zone”. In fact, when we ran the numbers last week, Trump’s win probability actually slightly improved when we restricted the model to using only high-quality, nonpartisan surveys.
Finally, the usual reminder that we’re going to be getting a lot of data over the last 11 days, and any one data point shouldn’t change your views about the race that much.
Silver has repeated that last paragraph, or something close, nearly every day for weeks.
Meanwhile Trump has steadily improved over that time.
Since October 1, Silver’s National Average for Trump has gone from 46.0 percent to 47.2 percent.
Since October 1, Silver’s National Average for Harris has gone from 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent.
The spread has gone from 3.4 percentage points in favor of Harris to 1.3 percentage points in favor of Harris. And that is before the WSJ poll that has Trump +3 and the NYT poll at +0!
I’ll take a crack that Silver will soon be at or below +1.0 for Harris, a number that Silver has assigned (from memory) a 70 percent chance of Trump winning. I cannot find his latest electoral college bias, but I am sure that shrunk.
Back to the Border
The Times poll’s large sample sizes and high quality help us dig a little deeper into the numbers — not just who’s winning, but why. For instance, it asked voters “What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November for president?”.
This was an open-ended question; respondents volunteered their answers rather than being read options from a prefabricated list. And here’s how they responded. I’ve done a little algebra on the backend here to calculate the net number of votes gained or lost by Harris based on issue groups.
This data tells a really clear story. Immigration and the economy are huge liabilities for Harris. In fact, they’re basically her only liabilities. They offset strong issues for her on abortion, democracy, and Trump’s personal attributes. Interestingly, voters who couldn’t name a most important issue also leaned strongly toward Harris — but that may be a sign that she’s offering voters more vibes than substance. Health care, long a winning issue for Democrats, barely shows up on the radar, for instance. That seems like a huge oversight for Harris given that Trump came within the margin of John McCain’s “maverick” vote on repealing Obamacare.
All year long readers will recall I implored Trump to stick with two issues, the economy and immigration.
Instead he wasted a debate talking about campaign rally size and he gave a totally stupid answer to a debate question on abortion.
This put Trump into a substantial hole that he has clearly dug himself out of.
Alternatively, and arguably more likely, the Harris media blitz backfired on her when she repeatedly refused to answer even the softest of softball media pitches, and sounded like a kackling idiot in the process.
It’s Not 50-50
The election is not a tossup. It’s breaking the way I suggested all the way back in February: People struggling with rent (young voters and blacks) will decide the election.
Not 50-50 doesn’t mean 80-20. I don’t know precisely what it means but yesterday I suggested 55-45 Trump,
Trump is clearly ahead. My one possible caveat is Trump may have needed this late surge just to get back to even. But if that was the case, then Harris was way ahead a few weeks ago.
If you disagree, then tell me whose shoes you would rather be in right now.
The poll aggregators have been so burnt by making calls, they are now willing to hide behind “It’s a tossup” statements.
I discussed this in Nate Silver’s Gut Says Trump Will Win, Just Don’t Bet On It
Nate Silver, Nate Cohn (NYT), and Sean Trende (Real Clear Politics) all say the same thing: It’s close.
Immigration Is Really a Symptom
Immigration has been a losing issue for the party in power in France, Germany, the UK, Hungary, Austria, the Netherlands, Poland, and now Canada.
Silver states the seemingly obvious: It may cost Harris the election.
But in reality, pain over immigration is a symptom of pain over the economy.
What the Election is Really About
Sure crime is up, but if people were happy about their jobs, able to afford houses, and not upset about food prices and the cost of insurance, etc., then immigration would have much less importance.
Well-off Whites don’t understand the immigration issue because they reside in ivory towers, in safe neighborhoods, and in academic wonderlands, not impacted in any way by immigration, happy their 401Ks are soaring.
The average person sees immigrants getting free benefits and shelter when they are struggling with shelter, food, insurance, and massive credit card debt.
Continued Unemployment Claims Are the Highest Since November 13, 2021
Yesterday, I noted Continued Unemployment Claims Are the Highest Since November 13, 2021
Continued Plus Long-Term Unemployment Claims Suggest Recession Right Now.
And for all the talk about the economy is humming, please note Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 3 Declining
The Fed Beige book shows a mostly steady economy in 6 of 12 regional reports. “Steady” is in context of the the worst Beige Book in years.
On October 22, I commented 20 Percent of Households Making Over $150,000 Live Paycheck to Paycheck
Bank of America has an interesting report on who’s living paycheck to paycheck (PTP). It’s not just the poor. Blame the Fed.
On October 21, I commented October 21: In California, Harris Is Down 21 Percentage Points With Latinos vs 2020
And while the The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary, Thank Harris and Biden that’s not really what the backlash against immigration is really about.
If people were not struggling with shelter, food, insurance, etc., they would not be so upset with immigration.
The backlash against immigration is really a backlash against inflation and the economy. That is what’s behind the shift towards Trump.
And it’s why this election is not the tossup everyone says it is.
One asked the question “If you could go back in time, would you kill Hitler before he took power?”, the vast majority of people reply affirmative.
The new question from the Democrats is “Will you cheat in an election to stop Hitler”
If it wasn’t the progressive agenda to nationalize the millions of illegals already in the country, it would be humorous to see Harris bungle her way through the presidency. And the progressive voters, particularly the young, try to rationalize why they vehemently backed her. Unfortunately for new Trump supporters, high inflation is already baked into the cake. There is nothing he can do, except not make it worse. Trump is not a conservative. Consumers, habituated to a decade of free money, are not ready for austerity programs to combat future inflation.
Pre-election polling, rallies, debates, media interviews means nothing- as long as one party is controlling the voting system.
The whole battle is -who’s controlling the voting machine and the mail in ballots counting !.
Currently, in most of the seven battle ground states-the total votes counts are not matching the registered voting roll. State of Florida wanted to purge the voting rolls of not eligible voters (about 500,000)-just to find out the emigration department does not want to reveal the citizen status of them (claiming these are under “special entitlements”).
I’m pounding the table about this issue for a long time-unless the federal gov makes it mandatory for all counties in America to match total cast ballots with total registered voters-election is a lost cause and America became one party system.
Heading back home from a short trip to the big box and happened to take the road which runs by a local government center.
What a Mob scene, is there a Trip or something going on and folks waiting on some Buses?
Then remembered wait a minute that is where early voting is getting done.
People lined up around the building.
Parking lot full with substantial amount cars lined up along the main road.
Never saw anything like this before.
People are pissed and motivated.
Readers can guess for themselves which Candidate voters are motivated to support.
Hint Last name does not start with an H.
This in Long Island NYS
The winner of the popular vote isn’t the winner
The winner is elected by intermediaries appointed by the states
The states make their own rules on how the electors are selected
The electors do not legally have to vote IAW the states rules
The state vote is decided on most votes, not a majority
That first past the post system reinforces a two party system, no real choice
Enrolments, voting papers, voting rules are set at state level or below
Inconsistent easily corrupted, managed by biased and low skill officials.
Electoral boundaries and voting rules are corrupted to disenfranchise people who are seen as likely to vote for the other side.
Money is supreme
There is even bullying and intimidation at polling places
But yea USA USA beacon of democracy
From ZeroHedge:
Police in the 2024 battleground state of Pennsylvania are investigating some 2,500 voter registration forms that were submitted in two massive batches — and investigators say that 60% of the forms they’ve checked so far are fraudulent. All of the ballots were submitted in Lancaster County, but two other counties are scrutinizing similarly suspect batches. While officials say it’s the work of a “large-scale canvassing operation,” they’re not yet saying who’s behind it.
The roughly 2,500 applications landed at or near Pennsylvania’s Oct 21 registration deadline; some observers are speculating that the timing may have been tactical, with the intent of exploiting time-pressure administrators would be under ahead of the Nov. 5 Election Day. However, as they examined the massive heap of forms, application processors were immediately alarmed by what they saw:
Sorry Mish. According to that same New York Times/Sienna poll, “15 percent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Ms. Harris is leading with that group, 42 percent to 32 percent. Two weeks ago, Mr. Trump had a minute edge with undecided or persuadable voters, 36 percent to 35 percent.” This is consistent with a recent Emerson poll that showed Harris leading this group by double digits. Second, people are already voting, and while GOP turnout is up in some states like Nevada, Democratic voters, especially women, are reportedly casting ballots at higher rates. This is always a good sign, given Harris’s gender gap advantage with women. Even among young men — a group that Trump has spent a great deal of money and effort courting — Harris has a lead in at least one poll among likely young male voters. Finally, Harris has a far better ground operation for the final push, impacting both enthusiasm and turnout. Does that mean she will win the election? I don’t know yet. No one does. It ultimately depends on who turns out more of their supporters in the final days.
David Alexrod calling Kamala’s answers to interview questions “Word Salad City” is the final nail in Kamala’s coffin.
Axelrod is an insider with the Hillary-Rahm Mob Family.
Rambling Don and babbling Kam make senile Joe seem a great orator
NYTimes? Sorry not interested in Fake news
Every country has a capital stock of assets like infrasture, military, educated workers. Migrants want to cap into this infrasture without having done the work, like education, military service, higher wages. They just want to walk across the border without making any contribution to the common welfare.
The immigrants come in after the land was “stolen” and all the heavy lifting was done and then have the temerity to whine about White racists not welcoming with open arms as they seek their piece of the loot.
Trump is middle america giving the middle finger to the coastal elites. He was never accepted into the New York upperclass. He inherited $40 million of real estate from his farther. He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple. Where he outdid his father was to move that $40 million from the Bronz to Manhatan. (Excuse my spelling, please). He is not the Deep State’s choice. This is definetly Fourth Turning stuff.
Bronx and yeah he inherited a lot but to be fair he didn’t squander it he added to it greatly That said I despise both candidates equally
How many times has the Donald filed for bankruptcy?
Henry Ford went bankrupt a few times . What is your point other than exhibiting TDS.
Henry Ford built something that contributed to the industrial economy besides his blatant anti-semitism.
The Donald’s three, four or more bankruptcies (I can’t keep up), contributed to the rentier sector, which is a bane to classical economic and political theories. The real estate sector contributes nothing to the advancement of technology. It does contribute to the insurance, finance sectors which are also parasitic in nature.
The Donald is the only owner of a hotel in Las Vegas near the Las Vegas strip that was intended to be a casino but didn’t secure a gambling license first. He filed bankruptcy on this property on at least three occasions, the Donald migrated to minority partner status and today it is an Icahn subsidiary with no Donald involvement.
The Donald is an excellent marketer. He is a terrible businessman. He has found his niche in the private sector marketing properties and businesses that bear his name but he has nothing to do with the strategic vision nor the day – to – day management of the sales and operations.
Why is it that disingenuous people are quick to cite something for those they don’t like as a flaw while citing that same things as virtue in those that they do like?
Refute what I wrote not what you think.
You could also add something that is relavent but instead you opted to inject ad hominem, non sequiter, hasty generalization, etc.
You are an idiot.
Trump has never filed for personal bankruptcy once.
You had better re-read what I posted. I didn’t say anything about personal. As anyone with a passing knowledge of billionaires know, they don’t file for personal bankruptcy. They have tax lawyers, corporate lawyers, accountants to ensure they aren’t personally on the hook for losses they created.
Can you say LLC.
It is the way crony capitalism works.
People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
Typical reply.
You stated Trump filed for bankruptcy. That is simply false.
If you were trying to post a correct statement you should have posted that XYZ, a company/LLC/partnership/ owned totally/in part by Trump filed for bankruptcy.
I don’t care about the polls. What concerns me is whether voters can overwhelm all the cheating from the democrats this time around.
to suggest cheating mattered in 2020 shows TDS
Just to be clear however, there were a number of irregularities, and proven some people had voted twice, and voter rolls were and many still are, filled with people who don’t belong, as they moved, died, became impaired etc. but some did actually vote or I should say, we’re voted for. So there was in fact proven cheating going on.
Did it change the outcome? Probably not, but we truly don’t know for certain. I think it’s a total waste of time, at this point anyway, but wanted to make that point just the same.
I will say if anybody pulls that crap this time around, and gets away with it, would be a travesty. However, both Parties are well aware, and should be doing things to assure it doesn’t. If not, then shame on them, as crying about it after the fact is obviously going to be useless…
Every vote matters. Negating even one vote through cheating matters.
Cheating does not matter because there is no robust formal independent audit process to delete fraudulent votes from the tally.
The Federal Government is however hiring AI IT companies to detect fraud against them for the IRS and VHA. If I have some type of syndrome for pointing this out it’s for attempting to apply logic and sound reasoning in a mental institution.
There was so much corruption in 2020. Everything was on the scales against Trump, from the presidential debate commission, to the fraudulent impeachment, to election interference by Google/Facebook/Twitter. Leslie Stahl even lied to Trump that the Hunter laptop could not be confirmed, “because it can’t.”
It wasn’t a free and fair election.
Trump lost the popular vote by millions .The polls showed Biden winning by lots, But Trump over performed the polls, so if there was any wide scale cheating surely it favoured Trump.
In any case the only reason he had any chance he had then was simply due to an archaic and unrepresentative electoral system.
From your post it appears that you are a democrat and one that doesn’t support the US form of a constitutional republic.
Of course the democrat ticket won the popular vote by millions simply because they carried two of the biggest states by population – California and New York.
I can hardly wait to see if Wisconsin or Michigan counties report more votes cast than the total population of those counties.
Headline today: Fraud Found Among 2,500 Voter Registration Forms Submitted En Masse In PA County
Other counties eyeing similar drops: “It appears to be an organized effort at this point”
Much evidence says otherwise
In 2024 Newsom passed a law in California that you don’t need a voter id to vote. That is not cheating. And of course no cheating in California without the law in 2020
Do you really think there wasn’t cheating during the past election?
By cheating I mean the following:
1. Changing voting rules by those not authorised to do so under the laws of various state constitutions.
2. Not enforcing the rules regarding properly verified votes such as signature matching.
3. Voting by people in a district where they were no longer eligible to vote as they had moved.
4. Implementing illegal methods of vote collection such as unattended drop boxes such as in Wisconsin that were later ruled illegal. And by the way tell me how Wisconsin had one of the highest percentage turnout of voters in history…..
You don’t need widespread voting fraud across the USA to affect the outcome of an election. You only need a couple of hundred thousand fraudulent votes across the swing states and you’ll get a totally different outcome.
And the above is even before one even thinks about real cheating such as multiple voting by unsigned ballots, stolen ballots, and unmanned/unattended ballot boxes.
There is some cheating in every election and I never said otherwise. Call it a few thousand nationally. Double that and put it all in one state if you like.
Not a single state changed.
Mish,
We can guess or argue about the numbers and we’ll never really know for sure, but I think that the total number of illegal fraudulent ballots in many of the swing states was more than the margin of victory in those states.
IIRC there were some analysis done in Georgia that looked at the voting after the election that identified over 80,000 such ballots.
And I’ll add that one way to prove that a lot of the voting was shonky all over the country is too look at the rate of disqualified ballots in the 2020 election and compare it to previous historical numbers.
It was way down compared to previous numbers. I really don’t think that people in the USA all of the sudden figured out how to vote correctly either. I think it means that many ballots that should not have been counted were counted.
In any event elections in the USA are a farce compared to elections in other countries.
Here in Australia we never have to show voter id. Wonder why?
We also have to vote or are fined if we don’t.
We also use paper ballots and the ballots are all hand checked by people.
I’ve never heard of cheating or voting by dead people here either.
Let’s be clear about what one thing determined the 2020 election.
A massive media bias against Donald Trump, reinforced by US Government Departments promoting fake stories, and covering up the truth.
I went to bed and Trump had won. I woke up and Trump had loss. While I was sleeping, at 2 am, they found all these duffel bags full of mail in ballots in the swing counties.
Total bullshit and proven Bullshit
That is your opinion. Calling what happen to me and to middle america bullshit is not what I expected from someone who moved their family from Illinois to Utah.
Difficult to deal with the concept that small booths get their counts in first and big booths later. The world is complicated and if you don’t understand it, that’s OK, none of us understand everything..
“Proven bullshit” I think that was an insult from you upon me. I believe I am educated. Proof, insult me with your proof, and I will wilt away and and bother you no more.
Mish needs to ban himself from commenting asap
Hilarious comment of the day!
You need to get out more.
Amy Comey Barrett et al ruled ‘’no standing’. Another one with a skeleton hiding in the closet.
Actually there is proof that there was cheating and that’s why the man/baby lost. Elvis told me.
Whenever it comes to the NYT and the like, one has to ask, what’s the catch? They lost my trust long ago and are not getting it back.
Mine as well All mainstream propaganda in fact
Always watch for the Sunday NYT showing up on the new neighbors driveway. The first thing these commies get on are the local school boards.
America does not have an innately criminal class, except for Democrats.
To be honest just about all politicians are compromised Look at how they cheered a foreign psychopath so much
Take abortion out as a factor and the Democrats don’t even have a campaign. What are they going to run on; Food prices? The deficit? Immigration? Interest rates? Celebrating the trans? Sending Ukraine $Billions? Crime? The border?
Kamala has essentially stated she is running on DEI, reparations and more green boondoggles.
I’m in a swing district in NYS (Lawler-Mondaire Jones) so I see A LOT of political ads.
I would say 80% of the Jones’ (democrat candidate) ads are about abortion
The state Senate race in my district is between an R female challenger who’s a mom standing up for women’s sports. She has an ad stating at the end that she’s pro-choice but the bulk of that ad is about the gender issue and how it’s neg affecting women.
I believe that Mish is correct: inflation hammered working class voters 2022-23.
I can not believe that Harris and Trump are tied, Harris is a disaster for this country. Can the electorate be that ignorant?
I don’t think it’s ignorance so much as irrationality.
That’s sexist!
Fake polls again anyone?
Fathers voting to protect the abortion rights of their 8 year old daughters. According to ads.
Yes they can be Definitely
Absolutely, as they are referred to as “Ill Informed” Many don’t follow Politics at all. They simply just vote how their Parents did. They believe a lot of what they hear, and don’t pay much attention to what they see. They have a friend here or there that dabbles in it, so they listen to them Etc.
I see nothing wrong with that, as it’s their choice. Hey, they may be the smartest people in the room, and probably the least stressed out for sure. I will continue to care and stay informed myself just the same…
Harris will be horrible, but tell us why Trumpie will be any better. Harris will be down the line and obey the powers that be, Trump will blather and rant and then do what he is told.
Harris is her own worst enemy in a far more serious way than Trump. Every time she opens her mouth you can hear the collective groan at the vapid nonsense that comes out of it. Trump may have alot of hot air but he speaks with the voice of a common man. That’s one of the reasons the Democrats and the ‘college educated’ people that tend to vote for them hate Trump – it’s an extension of their disdain for blue-collar working class people who they see as simple minded buffoons.
A “common man”? You must be joking.
<groan>
TDS rears it’s head once again. Are you willfully ‘misunderstanding’ or is it genuine lack of capacity?
I did not say he is a common man I said he speaks with the voice of a common man – i.e. in terms understandable or relatable to blue collar people. Do you understand the difference?
Duhh, yeah, I guess so, Professor.
As in ignorant and revelling in ignorance
You’re seriously delusional with your support of the Great Orange One.
If you had the opportunity to personally know the man, you may not vote for (D), but you certainly wouldn’t vote for that despicable man.
TDS describes Trump to a “T”
…and to the next question, yes, I know what I’m talking about
Please use this doll and point to where the bad man hurt you..
Can’t wait until erection day is over and everyone has shot their wads.
I see what you did there 😉
Trump can be a jerk but Harris is hardly likeable, and she lacks substance. I’ve been voting Libertarian but this time I will hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Look at a Trump vote as more a middle finger to BOTH parties establishment versus Trump himself.
This is how knowledgeable people see it
Exactly. Many of us don’t really believe in MAGA per se, we are just sick of the neoliberal elites of the uniparty who hate the common man and want to rule over us with a tyrannical stick like the lords of medieval Europe with their serfs. They want to tax us and sacrifice our kids to provoke and fight endless wars, invite the entire 3rd world to depress our wages and ruin our cohesiveness and communities, and reap the benefits of their divide and rule chaos. Kamala Harris is an 85 IQ pantsuit black vagina [her key VP selection criterion based on feeble Joe Biden himself] who as an empty vessel will facilitate war, poverty, invasion and chaos.
To a lot of white women, apparently abortion takes priority over the economic, mental, and physical well being of their own sons, brothers, fathers, and husbands based on gender gap in the polls. Very sad.
Very well said. Pretty much what myself, and those I associate with, are feeling but could not quite articulate. Thank you.
I’d wager that pollsters are shifting their biased, e.g. oversampled Dems, results to be a lot closer to the count that will be released after “all the votes” are counted.
The only real question here is whether or not the actual legitimate votes will be enough to overcome the effect of the mass-manufactured illegitimate votes.
If u vote for Harris u vote for Obama. If u vote for Trump u will get JD Vance.
I was dead wrong about Vance when he was announced. I had been hoping that he’d pick Tulsi. Tulsi is great but Vance has been knocking it out of the Park. Calling it here: my dream ticket for 2028 is Vance – Gabbard
Tulsi would be a great first woman president someday!
What do you mean, exactly?
Exactly, when someone asks who I am voting for I reply JD Vance.
There is little fact in your opinion, immigration has been a red herring discussion for quite a long time.
Anyone wo thinks immigration is a red herring issue likely has TDS Type I.
Agreed. Immigration policy falls into the nativist – xenophobic umbrella, the workers required camp, and the human rights advocacy groups.
The latest iteration of the immigration debate by the Trumplicans falls into the nativist – xenophobic umbrella for the most part. This group tends to become more vocal during declining economic conditions and national security concerns. The core believers have been in US and world history since tribalism reared its head. It is girded by fear of the other, the others cannot be trusted, the others are different, the others cost more than they contribute, the others cause a rise in crime, the others will not accept our laws, assimilate into our culture and are here to as free loaders to take advantage of the welfare state.
The nativist – xenophobic umbrella can also be boiled down to race, religion, ethnicity, creed then class.
It looks for a superman to resolve the “others” problem.
It has a cult mentality.
Its members besides the fear of the others tend to be conservative Christians and have experienced economic hardship and/or felt betrayed.
The above description can be synthesized into a flight or attack mode to resolve the “others” problem. The latter approach is the preferred method of the Trumplicans.
This is no way to fix our border illegal immigration issue.
Business wants the cheap labour. Whichever party is owned by business will have to keep bringing in cheap labour….. so vote… er.. Green
few peopl have a problem with immigration – it’s ILLEGAL immigration that is the issue. Stop conflating the two.
I’d favor reducing legal immigration as well. Too many people lowers the quality of life.
We need SOMEONE to pick veg.
i vote for robots
My parents were legal immigrants from Europe – we just need to be selective about who comes through the door.
The Democrats don’t want to have a ‘positive P&L or Balance Sheet = net worth” immigration, skills in shortage, or even a triple digit IQ requirement as they would lose their control mechanism as it would weaken their “loot the public purse to buy votes” ploys. They need double digit IQ, uneducated peasants to ensure a one party state for the country overall. It is the California strategy applied to the US. Wake up.
It’s why they want to dumb down education
Trouble is the quality people have no interest in immigrating to the US A sinking ship with huge problems The BRICS will be the nail in the coffin
I don’t believe that for a minute. Highly educated Indians and Chinese are flooding into this country.
More are coming to Australia and bringing their assets with them.
The illegal immigrants entering the USA are completely different.
Opinion alone doesn’t decide elections. The other big deciding factor is willingness-to-vote. “Likely Voters” is subjective, “Actual Voters” is definitive.
The polls show opinion split basically 50-50 (within margins of error). But the actual votes could be 55-45, if one side gets their supporters to turn out in much greater numbers.
The hysterical rhetoric isn’t intended to change minds, it’s seeking to increase motivation among supporters… but it can backfire and motivate opponents instead.
Do we have data on relative turnout levels for each party? Early voters as a fraction of total registered for each party?
Pissed-off people are a lot more likely to vote than “comfortably numb”. But people scrambling just to survive have less time to vote.
Keep hope alive. Whatever gets you through the night
I voted today for Donald Trump for president in Arkansas. Had to show ID to do it!
My wife, myself, and one of my sons voted in IL (Cook Cty) for Trump. RFK Jr remained on the ballot as a fooler or for those wishing to waste their vote. My state legislators all ran unopposed as democrats. My other son living in NC with a Yale MBA, and undergrad degrees in econ and math thinks Trump is a “buffoon” and is all-in on sustainability post his time at Yale. He paid for at least half of his private college tuition via NROTC, took the Marine Corps option and spent time at Camp Leatherneck and Kuwait. He’s earned his opinion although I may disagree. Haven’t gotten an invitation for T-Giving yet, but I’m holding out hope.
Sad to hear of a fellow Marine going that way. Unfortunately the college indoctrination environment really digs in deep for many. Hopefully he’ll see the light some day. best wishes.
I don’t understand why anyone in the military, or retired from it, would consider Trump. He characterizes soldiers as “suckers” and “losers”, blows off military ceremonies if the rain might ruin his hair, and threatens any retired generals that are critical of him with reinstatement and court martial.
See ”Mark Milley fears being court-martialed if Trump wins, Woodward book says”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/bob-woodward-book-mark-milley-trump
Lol
I don’t understand why anyone in the military would want their Commander in Chief to be the person favored by Dick Cheney.
Exactly. Invade the world, invite the world.
They ARE suckers Giving your life or limb for the criminal bankers and MIC That’s pretty dumb I would say I marched in 69 against the insane Vietnam debacle My father was a marine officer MD in Korea and had terrible PTSD all his life Suicide at 46 Ain’t war great
War what is it good for. The people doing the dying. The rich get richer.
And the flow of people between DoD apparatchiks, generals and defence contractors, nothing to see , nothing to see.
most of that nonsense has been debunked ad-nauseam.
Remind me not to send my son to Yale in 4 years.
How come the overlords in all the Western democracies have pushed for immigration and demographic revolution for decades, even though 80% of the electorate is against it? Always promises, but never any results.
The only real difference at the current juncture is that it has finally risen to the number one priority issue.
In a debt based economy, sustainability depends on consumers who continue to take on debt. Inflation has increased maxed out credit cards and defaults. Immigrants arrive to the US debt free and begin to borrow. But what makes this a failed policy is the new debt slaved don’t have skills to earn a lot of money, so they won’t be able to take on large amounts of debt. And the default risks are higher among those with fewer skills.
The left wants to Mexicanize the US so elites can rule us by fiat by destroying the middle class and eradicate any culture of critique shining a magnifying glass on their misdeeds that comes from anyone to the right of Karl Marx in the political spectrum.
Indeed – the elites have been using divide and conquer tactics to keep the masses in thrall for millenia. Nothing divides people like living amongst people who do not share cultural values and language.
From my perspective US is already Mexico
Mexicanized? My Peruvian spouse would be appalled at the thought.
Repubs and Dems both owned by big $ that want cheap labour
National sentiment (popular vote) isn’t germane: it’s all down to a few counties here and there.
Instead of on the election results.
Harris will win. The Democrats have honed the systemic voting fraud machine at this point, illegal immigrants being a large part of that process. Of course, the lack of proof of identity when voting also make the voting process more resilient. Lol! I still don’t see how that con passed its way through the bowels of “democracy”. One chatty neighbor in an apartment compex who knows everyones name, address, and birthday can easily cast 20 votes.
Then the ultimate Affirmative Action baby will be in charge and we can see the foolishness of promoting a double digit IQ black vagina, albeit one with good BJ skills as ‘da mayor’ aka good old Slick Willie Brown would attest, to a role that is demonstrably above her head. She couldn’t run a Subway franchise let alone a country.
Affirmative Action Anchor Baby ….
Harris has no chance…
certification not needed
Simple new procedures dictate…
1st man to declare victory wins.
yeah, even if the vote counting is not fraudulent , the voter registrations can be fraudulent like with fake voters and non citizen voters
look at what Governor Youngkin has been doing as far as non citizen’s being registered to vote in federal elections
and look at today’s news about 2500 possible fraudulent voter registration forms in Lancaster, Pennsylvania
the “mail in ballot harvesting” by well-funded AntiFa and Act Blue activists can be for fake voters because of a lack of quality control at the supervisor of election offices (which are over-run with Democrat bureaucrats)
and now the Democrats are intimidating poll watchers by using the police
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/poll-watchers-concerns/index.html
.
I’d much rather be in Trump’s golden sneakers.
Such momentum: He’s been successfully promoting himself for decades.
And he can say any stupid thing that comes to mind.
Long Live King Chaos the Shit Talker!
his only main weakness is him saying stupid things
versus Harris who does stupid things
she says stupid things also, but that is overshadowed by the disasters that result from her governing
Cue the trump derangement syndrome.
Polls.
Really all that matters is whether “The Establishment” will command their legions to steal the election or not.
The seeming unstoppable rise of Trump in these polls suggests that he may clear the feasibility hurdle for them to execute it successfully.
We shall see.
No one stole the election in 2020 and no one will steal this one.
I wish I could believe that. Just because it could not be proven doesn’t mean there wasn’t any cheating. Ballot harvesting is hard to prove. There is election fraud in Detroit and Chicago without a doubt so why couldn’t it be more widespread ?
If there were no cheating, why won’t democrats permit the periodic clean up of voting rolls to exclude dead people and non-citizens. Even in liberal Europe, they don’t do cheat by mail given the potential for election theft. In person, show ID, and limited to citizens only to restore faith in electoral process and systems would be straightforward means of avoiding the looming chaos of not accepting the results of elections, but the Democrats and their legions of corrupt judges will never permit that. They would rather have the chaos and win.
Democrats do permit periodic voter registration clean up. CA often does this in fact. However, they don’t like obvious attempts to disenfranchise voters within 90 days of an election. The latest example of this was Virginia, where Republican Governor Glenn Younkin attempted to purge more than 1,500 voters. There is no evidence that non-citizens have voted in any significant amount, and this purge would have eliminated voters who mistakenly said they were not citizens, as well as LPRs that had since become citizens. What we really should have is same day voter registration, but Republicans frequently block this as they want to make voting more difficult. It’s worth noting that North Dakota has no registration requirement and they seem to do just fine.
How exactly do you “mistake” your citizenship?
Frankly, it’s the Republican a$$-wipes that stopped the cleaning of voter roles in PA, as well as pre-canvasing
There are a lot of democrat a$$-wipes too. Just call them by their collective name, the Deep State.
Insults get us nowhere So glad I left that insane assylum called the USA
Why not? You believe that without any evidence whatsoever. Nothing, nada, zip, zero. None of you lackwits has any evidence beyond “the other lackwits said”.
You are the kind of person that can believe whatever stupid crap you want, so why do you choose to believe things that make you miserable?
Because you want to be miserable, and you want everyone else to be miserable too. It’s the thing that ties all you fascist whack jobs together. Honestly, I don’t know why you people don’t just end your suffering with your second amendment rights.
Fascist is the joining of the state and private enterprise to run roughshod over individual’s rights. That is clearly the domain of the Democrats given their censorship tyranny using mafiaso tactics to pressure advertising cartels to threaten legitimate speech they label as disinformation or hate speech, which is unconstitutional by the way, and cancellation of Elon and SpaceX in CA. There are many other examples of the Democrats fascist behavior libtard.
Talking about Elon and Trump’s little bromance?
Homophobe
You are an asshole retarded libfuck. I have the 2a for wholesale like you
The old “enemy within” eh?
Stupid fascist, the enemy is armed.
Look up the term democide. 150 million people murdered by their own government. Yea gun control works when your government wants to eliminate dissent. The enemy within is our government. They depend on trusting sheep like you. BAAH.
Heavily armed sheep here… Baaaang Baang Baaaang.
Aholes like you is why I own weapons.
Hell, the Kennedy (Mr. Joe) threw the election in Chicago, using Syndicate ties: “But in 1960, some irregularities in Illinois votes, specifically the ones in Chicago, prompted calls for an investigation from Republicans over then-Sen. John F. Kennedy’s victory.”
The saga played out in the pages of the Chicago Daily News.
“Fewer than 100,000 votes out of a total of 69 million cast in the Nov. 8 election may decide whether Vice President Nixon or Sen. Kennedy is to be our nest President,” William Harrison Fetridge, chairman of the Nixon Recount Committee of Illinois, told the Daily News on Dec. 5, 1960.”
Theft and fraud were proven. Corrupt courts would not hear the evidence.
Where is this ‘evidence’? You don’t know, and you won’t go looking. I have asked hundreds of you dumbcucks this question, and there has not been one shred of evidence presented.
There. Is. No. Evidence. You fools have been conned by The Moron Whisperer.
Doesn’t that depend who wins? If Trump wins I’m sure we’ll be back to endless claims of “Russian interference”
Everything is Putins fault don’t ya know This will be our downfall Blaming everybody for our own mistakes
I’ve been here a really long time, but these crazy MAGA mental illness-types have really degraded your site.
Probably from Zerohedge, and I read them daily too.
“People are saying things I don’t like!”
Exactly
Morons are being morons.
I don’t like Trump or Kamala but insulting people with a different point of view is very childish and unproductive
“ No one stole the election in 2020 and no one will steal this one.”
Correct Mish.
I wonder why your blog tends to attract a large number of folks who fall for these conspiracy theories?
For those of you here who think the last election was stolen and this one will be as well, my question is:
Why do you bother to vote at all?
Better to not waste your time voting. Instead, use your time to do something useful; like improve your life.
In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, 37% of democrats thought the election process had been tampered with. It took a few months of the likes of NPR braying “The Big Lie, The Big Lie” for the programming to take hold.
Those same people would scoff at Putin’s 87% win, saying “he controls the media”, but they don’t consider it election interference that 51 American spooks Pooh-poohed the (true) Hunter Biden laptop scandal (10% for the Big Guy) while the social media companies banned spreading the story, despite its being broken by the oldest newspaper in the republic.
As far as “why do you bother to vote?” There is such a thing as “too big to rig”. At least I hope so.
He says that shit endlessly you think he would tire of repeating his nonsense don’t bother to vote garbage. That’s what our forefathers envisioned when they fought Tyranny. Papa dave would have said why bother.
We live in a great country. You are entitled to vote. Please do. But if you do vote, don’t say it was rigged if your candidate doesn’t win. That’s been proven false over and over again. You would think that you would have learned that by now.
And I am entitled to not vote.
Proven false? Oh, really?
Yep. In 62 court cases so far. How many court cases have shown any wrongdoing? Zero.
Would you change your mind if it was 72-0?
How about 1062-0?
Lets face it. You will believe any fantasy that your cult masters tell you.
Maybe if the cases were actually allowed to go through discovery and genuine prosecution?
My favorite cases were the ones where “standing” was denied, despite the obvious truth that everyone in the nation is harmed by election malfeasance.
Standing should be automatic in any election or constitutional issue
There are many, many proven historical examples of vote-rigging in the USA, some going back centuries and others just a few years ago. Why not now too?
The best known are perhaps the early 1900s city political machines – NYC, Philly, Chicago.
But my favorites are the Battle of Athens (Tennessee, 1946), and the Box 13 adventure that got Lyndon Johnson into the Senate in 1948.
The legal shenanigans following the 2000 election, and then again after the GFC in 2008-2010, showed that the legal system is distressingly disinterested in delivering actual justice. The last 4 years of transparently hypocritical legal-system persecutions of the opposition leader have underscored the point.
Why should the electorate have faith in the election system when the rest of the legal system is transparently corrupted?
The far more plausible hypothesis is that in the absence of a muckraking press, and in the absence of genuine political competition in most districts, political machines have again flourished and now operate at possibly every level.
You must be old Pops We “ used to” live in a great nation What’s being perpetrated in the Middle East is not indicative of greatness
It has not been proven false, it just can’t be proven. A big difference. If you don’t believe in voter fraud you are truly naive. Even the ex governor of IL admitted it.
ex-governor of Illinois = jailbird
Who would know better
It’s the only way they can swallow losing… again. These people are permanent losers who think they’re victims.
“As far as “why do you bother to vote?” There is such a thing as “too big to rig”. At least I hope so.”
Then you are contradicting yourself.
No, they did not. Stop lying.
Conspiracy theories are sexy. And people like to blame anyone but themselves when things don’t go their way.
This pertains to nearly every topic on Twitter, not just the election.
ZH makes millions of dollars, perhaps a million every month, posting every conspiracy theory around. I doubt he even believes them all.
His ad revenue is amazing. I barely make a living. I suspect I make something like $7 an hour.
But we are debt free.
Mish, I think you wake up every morning and immediately think “there are no conspiracies”. You think that because you can rebut the assertion that “Oswald couldn’t have gotten off those shots in that timeframe” means that there couldn’t have been another shooter or that there was no conspiracy. Your having stood in the book depository doesn’t prove that Oswald was a lone wolf. There is a middle ground between thinking everything is a conspiracy and thinking there are no conspiracies. There is a reason the word “conspire” exists. There is fraud in every election. It’s a question of degree. My cousin (a democrat) pled guilty to having voted twice in Wisconsin. My own brother admitted to voting twice in the same election without the slightest qualm because he thought it furthered a good end. He is,of course, a flaming liberal. And he doesn’t even remember having told me about his double vote because cheating in an election was not even memorable to him. The ends justify the means to them.
The presidency is worth trillions of dollars. The incentive to cheat is tremendous. I’m not certain the 2020 election was won through fraud, but there were many anomalies. It was not “proven” to have been fraud-free. The many court cases were declined due to supposed lack of standing (does anybody have standing?) and because courts don’t want to weigh in on it.
I think it’s fair to say that I can’t prove there was fraud, but it’s not fair to say it was proven there wasn’t fraud.
I also can’t prove OJ killed his ex-wife, but he did.
“I can’t prove OJ killed his wife.” Perfect example. Enough said,
Nothing wrong with Zerohedge It has much more truth than your beloved toilet paper of record The NY Times
It must be frustrating for you Mish.
Promoting cult conspiracies is a great way to make money and reel in the morons. You can see the result here in the comments section.
So many dumb f*cks willing to believe all that garbage.
Trusting little lamb you are. Our malevolent government loves its trusting flock. See post regarding Pennsylvania voter fraud just exposed.
Dumbf**cks my ass. I have scored between 150 and 160 on multiple authentic IQ tests in childhood and adulthood and have the paperwork and memberships to prove it. How about yours libtard? You losers think anyone who is not an NPC who believes every lie the uniparty ‘authorities’ tell them is a dumbf**ck…
Lol! Yep. You are a dumb f*ck. And thanks for proving it.
You are so stupid, you immediately make incorrect assumptions about me.
What a dumb f*ck!
Glad you know the truth because I’m still undecided