It’s increasingly hard to find another job if you lose one.
The lead chart shows the monthly average of Continued Claims from the Department of Labor and those unemployed 27 weeks or longer from the BLS.
Continued Claims
- The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 16, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 16 was 1,907,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 1,890,250, an increase of 13,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,928,000.
Insured Unemployment
The key phrase above is “insured unemployment”.
After someone expires all of their unemployment benefits they become “uninsured unemployment” and the Department of Labor stops tracking.
Expiring Unemployment Benefits
- Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
- Many states with a maximum of 26 weeks use a sliding scale based on a worker’s earnings history to determine the maximum number of weeks they qualify
- Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, North Carolina, and Kentucky have a lower number of week.
- Massachusetts allows up to 30 weeks depending on conditions. Montana allows 28 weeks of benefits.
Insured unemployment generally ends at 26 weeks. To correct for expiring benefits, we need add those with expired benefits to the number of continuing claims.
My monthly averages are through October. I will soon be able to add November to the chart and it will show another increase.
Weekly Continued Claims Chart
Since April 20, continued claims have risen from 1.768 million to 1.907 million, an increase of 139,000. But that’s not the best way to look at things as the following detail shows.
Continued Claims and 27+ Weeks Unemployed Detail
Since the low in July of 2022, the total of continued claims plus 27+ weeks of unemployment has risen from 2.566 million to 3.482 million, an increase of 916,000. It will be close, if not top a million, for November.
The increase since April of 2024 is 452,000. Nearly 50 percent of the rise since July of 2022 has been in the last 6 months.
Now take another look at the lead chart. These trends have never occurred without the US being in recession or soon heading there.
Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
On November 20, I commented Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
My prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million. My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.
The BLS Birth-Death model is seriously messed up an/or the BLS is oversampling large corporations and under sampling small businesses.
The BLS monthly nonfarm payroll reports are consistent garbage.
Reflections on BEA Revisions
If jobs are overstated, income is too. And on Wednesday we found out the BEA overstated wages by a massive $91.8 billion from $156.8 billion to $65.0 billion.
Please note the Huge Negative Revision of $91.8 billion to Second-Quarter Private Wages
The BEA commented “With the incorporation of these new QCEW data, real gross domestic income is now estimated to have increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter, a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points from the previously published 3.4 percent estimate.”
I commented “The BEA hugely revised GDI to the downside. Hmm. It seems that voters weren’t fooled.”
Click on the above link for more details and charts.
Inflationary or Recessionary?
There are a huge number of factors in play depending on what Trump does with tariffs, what Trump does with deportations, how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate, and how much the Fed reacts to Trump’s jawboning.
Tariffs and deportations are simultaneously inflationary and recessionary depending on the time frame and how fast Trump does or doesn’t do what he has pledged to do.
Neither Trump nor the Fed is in a good position. That will be the subject of a post coming up soon.
An Austrian Perspective on Tariffs
Alan Grindler
mises.org
“… countries should carefully select their trading partners. For instance, trade with authoritarian or totalitarian regimes should be limited, and dependencies on these nations should be avoided to reduce strategic risks. Trade relations should primarily focus on allies who share similar values of open markets, respect for private property, and sound economic principles. When such alignment exists, political relationships tend to support the economic efficiency that the Austrian School advocates, fostering a more resilient and mutually beneficial trading environment.”
There will be plenty of job openings in a few months for bus drivers taking the illegals down to the southern border.
The despair goes deeper. Almost a quarter of renters report skipping meals to make their monthly rent payments Trump, a third-generation landlord and developer, of course offered nothing in the way of rent relief or other pro-tenant policies..https://www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/the-renters-republic/
The rich will be taken care of of though.
There should be NO rent relief! People need to live within their means. Maybe they need to get more roommates, get another job or move back home. People who have mortgages don’t get to skip mortgage payments, property taxes snd property insurance without repercussions.
Obamas legacy is Trump. Bidens legacy is Trump.
Add 10 million more illegal aliens into the work force over the past four years.
What could possibly go wrong?
Only government printing money creates inflation. Tariffs will only reduce demand which is deflationary. Deporting individuals is deflationary, as we’ll have less cheap workers (reducing demand), while reducing demand for housing and welfare.
But supply of employees drops, so demand for them, thus their wages, goes up. Especially true, since many recent immigrants do jobs most folks don’t want to do.
“The 4-week moving average was 1,890,250, an increase of 13,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,928,000.”
And the country was still knee deep in COVID. So what? Trying to compare the current number to anything in the ballpark of COVID is just not a viable comparison for trying to hash out if a recession is right around the corner.
Most importantly, the graph clearly shows that a recession isn’t in the cards until we’re materially above 2M claims. At least 2.25M is a good estimate.
But… I thought Covid didn’t exist?
too many conspiracies to keep straight.
It was a SCAMDEMIC!!!!
Inflation causes depression.
Financial history shows BOTH inflation and deflation can lead to economic depression. The US Great Depression in 1930’s was deflationary as credit to buy stocks on margin then in general dried up. Germany Wiemar Republic 1930’s was inflationary as printing money was met with higher borrowing costs and general prices.
Re: “ Inflationary or Recessionary?”
I suspect you meant Inflationary AND / OR Recessionary, since historically they are not mutually exclusive (except in flawed models).
Recession call number XXX! Drink!
Pretty convincing that we are already in a recession. But it looks like probably a mild one, unless Trump (or something else) does something to significantly accelerate the slowdown.
That’s what they said through the first half of 2008, too.
The clowns are donning their makeup, and the calliope player is warming up. The circus is about to begin.
The model I follow, which has been accurate for over forty years, shows a slowdown started in May 2024 and begins a prolonged recession.
Add the risk of a significant conflict or war, and you can quickly see how accurate the prediction is.
Re “you can quickly see” …. No we can’t, you didn’t share your model.
Let’s see, the model predicts a slowdown in May 2024 before Russia and Israel do their war thing. Wars always start economic downturns. Yeah, I didn’t disclose the model, and why should I? It seems Jack offs just want to argue over it so why bother?
There has not been a ‘significant conflict’ since the end of covid in mid 2021. Mostly every ‘event’ and ‘crisis’ turns out to be yet another nothing burger
At this point in the economic cycle, I would not recommend changing jobs unless loss of employment is imminent. If thinking about retiring, wait for a buyout offer.
In May 2020 cont claims reached 23 million, currently only 1.9 millions, less than 10%. In the last 60 years the globalist ruled the world. In the last 60 years there was never a 20 millions invasion.We are in a different world.
May 2020 is an outlier where government forcibly shut economy down, not a valid comparison point.
The current rise looks just like the 2000 and 2007 recession starts.
Fortunately, it’s time to do something about the invasion.
And imagine what would happen to the unemployment rate if you could get 500,000 or so of these long-term unemployed working in residential construction as plumbers, electricians, HVAC techs or even framers for those who are more able bodied?
They would much rather hire migrants, illegal immigrants and other foreign born workers before Caucasians over 45
The longest non-recession since 1968.
Surely, some crack and faults must have developed underground that one day will burst into the surface.
Yeah, it’s time. Unfortunately, Mr Trump may have substantial headwinds or accelerate those winds. It’s hard to tell this early.
No doubt, the increase will be “statistically” insignificant by the government and wall street.
Why worry? The GOP/Trump is in 100% control of all branches of government. No excuses and “no surrender” wasn’t it? Trump fought hard and won, now it’s….
Time to take us to the promised land.
Be careful. President Jackson paid off the national debt in 1835. He was declared the savior of the country. That is until the Panic of 1837.
They know his second failure will be even bigger, and are already making excuses. You think “the economy is great” bs was thick during the Biden term, just you wait. The apex liars are coming.
Worrisome.