The Bloomberg consensus was 162,000 so this was a very weak report.
The ADP® National Employment Report shows a gain in private employment of 77,000 in February. The BLS reports nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, comments “ADP Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month. Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”
ADP Change by Establishment Size
Once again we see weakness in small businesses.
Note that ADP is private employment while nonfarm payrolls include government jobs.
I expect a dramatic slowdown in government employment, especially at the state an local level which had been rapidly hiring to handle needs of illegal immigrants.
How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?
On February 20, I addressed the question How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact Unemployment and Jobs?
Congrats!
“So, congrats, I suppose, to the 77,000 people who get an eight-month vacation,” Leavitt told NewsNation.
Those who accepted the offer are still getting paid so there should be no unemployment claims related to the 77,000 layoffs for 8 months.
Since they are still technically working, if they take another job, the BLS will see this as a new job. However, these persons will likely take a job from someone else who would have gotten one.
Sneak Previews
Weekly unemployment claims will be released later today. So we will soon have an indication of recent unpaid layoffs.
Anna Wong is chief economist for Bloomberg.
DOGE Layoffs
The BLS reference week is usually is the 7-day calendar week (Sunday–Saturday) that includes the 12th of the month, with occasional exceptions.
Any layoffs in February on or after the 16th will not be in the payroll report. And the 77,000 who accepted offers will not show up as unemployed for 8 months.
Related Posts
January 31, 2025: The BLS Confirms US is Now Losing Jobs in Net Business Creation
The BLS BED report provides further confirmation the BLS Birth/Death jobs model is seriously screwed up.
February 4, 2025: Job Openings Drop by 556,000 in December, Quits Show Job Finding Stress
Job openings have collapsed. And the number of quits confirms people are staying put.
February 5, 2025: ADP Payrolls Better than Expected But Two-Thirds of the Economy Has Stalled
ADP reported a better than expected 183,000 jobs in January, but small business trends are unsettling.
Republicans take control and the economy falls apart, where have I seen that before?
Same place you have seen the economy fall apart when Democrats took control. Roosevelt had a recession in a depression.
Off Topic: Dept of Education End Days
Per NY Post
“300K NYC public school students — nearly 35% — ‘chronically absent’ as grades plummet, spending surges”
One of the best ways to save on the rising cost of education & better prepare our students would be for the US to track students like China does. Once you get into the 8th grade, each student should be on one of three tracks and have the opportunity to move up or down through HS:
General HS Diploma given to you after your 11th grade with fewer course requirements
VoTech HS Diploma given to you after your 11th grade year with career readiness-based course requirements
College HS Diploma given to you after your 12th grade with college level course requirements
Again, radical change is needed but most likely won’t come about due to America’s increasingly divergent views of what’s important & how to fix things.
Or the fact that we didn’t use to want to be authoritarian like China?
I thought you MAGA folks didn’t want the federal government to have control over such personal and fiscal federalist notions such as education? Why don’t you let the local parents and individual states decide how to give degrees?
Or do you want to eat your cake and have it, too?
Nice checkmate. Jay can’t decide if he’s a federalist or a states rights or something else. Odd so many “central planners” keep coming to a libertarian website.
I’ve never argued for more federal authority than what the constitution calls for.
Sending it back to the states is exactly what I’m arguing for.
Then you might want to edit better what you write before you hit the Post button:
“for the US to track students like China does” does not sound even close to states’ rights. And what do you think the odds are of all 50 states wanting the same educational design you personally advocate?
What absolute BS, dude!
IF and it’s a big freaking IF, the DoE is put to bed, then states will become educational laboratories as they should be. States already have the right to determine the qualifications of HS diploma. My question is will well run states come to realize that tracking is a better option than acting like the vast majority of students need to go to college. Ultimately, I am arguing for more student choice. I teach any number of kids who would love to graduate a year or so earlier and go ahead and join the work force.
But one thing I can guarantee you is that over the next 10 years or so the value of a college degree is going to take a hit. The extent to which AI is going to affect student’s value they place on college is going to be huge. And there’s nothing you or I can do about this. Then robotics is going to start hammering people with HS diplomas. We’ve got about 15-20 years at most before the work landscape is altered in very profound, structural ways.
The internet is the worst best thing ever invented. It has essentially stopped progress in thought, philosophy, fashion, all the peripheral indicators of social and human change.
you can look at a house, or a person from the 1990’s and compare to 2025 and there is nearly no change. The homogenization of thought brought by a global economy, a global internet has destroyed creativity.
Everything is a rerun. Trump broke the rerun machine. we will have to create our own reality once again. it will be painful, most are ill prepared, even more are too young to recall anything other than the instant now, they have no tools or understanding. They will act stupidly, they cannot think.
It will take years to settle, there will be many financial and social earthquakes changing the landscape and the people.
As he writes on an Internet blogsite? LOL
No one would have ever heard of Mish or his views (and been able to debate them), if not for the Internet
Words of advice, Hunker Down.
Skip the simmer vacation and eat at home.
“How Will 77,000 DOGE Terminations Impact
Unemployment and Jobsthe budget deficit?”We don’t EVENTUALLY, YEARS FROM NOW get to a much lower or no budget deficit without job losses at the Federal level. There are tons of other ways that the WH & Congress have to find savings. Whether that will ever materialize is hard to say, but at least we have a president who’s starting to make budget cuts a priority. I agree there’s lots of room for improving on the message of why & how, but we have to start someplace. The initial push of Shock & Awe probably makes more sense in the early days simply to get past the inertia of Congress’ status quo.
The Dept of Education is the perfect example. Since 2000 outlays have jumped a massive 649% from $33B to $251B as headcount was reduced by 14%. That’s insane, and I’m a teacher calling out this waste.
The waste & fraud across the Federal government goes so far beyond staggering that it simply can’t be ignored anymore. We’re broke, so ANY statement Mish or any of us make about WHATEVER needs to be viewed through that lens.
SS/medicare. Firing federal employees might actually *cost* money and saves pennies at best. But it’s a solid dog and pony show I guess.
Every government employee is a cost not a contributor to GNP. Government should not be counted for GNP nor employment. They burden the wealth producing taxpayers. The fewer government parasites the better.
So teachers, firefighters, police officers, ICE agents, military protectors, etc. – none of them provide anything productive for society?
Thanks for your invaluable ‘contribution’ to our Internet learning today
Correct. The fewer the better.
Just print more jobs.
Well, I guess this is the ‘pull the bandaid off’ strategy.
No, cutting SS would be pulling the bandaid off.
This is just getting started. But Trump said the economy is strong, but the economy is also weak and he’s going to fix it. So it’s weak but strong. There you have it. Ohh, and we should expect pain, whatever that is. I don’t think Americans asked him what pain means. Can somebody please ask him what he means by pain?
Jean, it means a recession.
When this happens, Congress will pass a ton of deficit spending to help pull us out of the recession. If it happens before 2026, the GOP will lose the House & Senate. Then Vance will struggle to get elected president. If he doesn’t, the Dems will undo EVERYTHING Trump / DOGE do. We’ll go into even more debt; inflation will remain very high, and then at some point, we’re going to have the mother of all asset collapses. That’s when the real pain will occur & it may actually lurch the USA into a civil war over economic policy as well as 1A & 2A rights.
That’s what lies ahead. Kepich?
This will happen this year, not in 2026.
The weak private employment lines up well with the massive government layoffs.
Competition for jobs will be fierce. This will drive wages down which is great news for the overlords.
Actually, 1st-time unemployment claims dipped 21K.
September will be a different story all together.
it always is..
Wages for what? Pencil pushing?
Not many of us think those people were doing many useful things that would translate into jobs in the private sector. Unless they want to compete for Walmart greeting jobs they may find that they are unemployable.
More than a few DOGE employees resigned rather than kiss Musk’s behind. They have transferable, in demand skills, but they are going to deal with a tougher employment market than before.