Small and medium-sized businesses shed jobs in June.
The ADP® National Employment Report for June provides a sobering set of statistics.
“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”
Change by Employer Size
- 1-19: -29,000
- 20-49: -18,000
- 50-249: +12,000
- 250-499: -27,000
- 500+: 30,000
Change by Small, Medium, Large
- Small: -47,000
- Medium: -15,000
- Large: +30,000
ADP Total Employment by Employer Size
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Year-Over-Year
ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year
Year-Over-Year Change by Small, Medium, Large
- Small: 174,000 – 14.5%
- Medium: 235,000 – 19.6%
- Large: 793,000 – 66.0%
Despite accounting for 43.6 percent of all jobs, small businesses only accounted for 14.5 percent of jobs gains in the last year.
Despite accounting for only 27.4 percent of all jobs, large businesses accounted for an outsized 66.6 percent of jobs gains in the last year.
No Driver for Job Growth
This economy is more than a bit screwed up. Tariffs and deportations rate to do more damage to small businesses.
There is no driver for job growth in the US. Expect to see negative numbers from the BLS this year.
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Since then Trump has flip-flopped. Mass deportations were put back on then taken off.
The uncertainty over tariffs and deportations is starting to bite.
The stock markets might turn down next week. A heatwave from the Maghreb invaded Spain and Portugal. People in France and England can hardly breath. DXY might turn up next Mon, after Bibi will praise Trump for blasting Iran.
More details coming tomorrow with the official BLS labor report.
Maybe, just maybe, June – July – Aug might actually establish a trend for the labor market that gives Powell cover to cut rates, even if CPI continues to edge up slightly.
Despite, despite and despite. Despite^3 ==> SPX made a new all time high today. 1M: July might be red for the knuckleheads. Q3 red. JP will do whatever to prevent
recession before he retire. Recession might come later in 2026/2027.
Option: JD Vance inauguration in Jan 2029. After the 2026/2027 (severe??) recession wages will rise until mid/or end of JD Vance second term. RE: the systemic change will last more than a decade. A bearish option 1M SPX: A-B-C down. B high in mid 2026.
Nope.
My wife works for a big hospital corp. They just laid off a bunch, and had senior management taking 25% pay cuts.
If healthcare isn’t making money, what is?
How do you know they’re not making money? If they’re not, then they’re severely mismanaged, and the Sr Mgmt should be fired.
Maybe the company is beginning to right size in terms of headcount as they prepare to leverage AI more strategically?
Oh, Amazon, MSFT, Apple, Walmart, Costco, Berkshire Hathaway, home builders (for now), and lots of other non-healthcare companies to name a few.
Correct; or revenues are dropping so costs must follow.
Deportations hitting HIC bigly. The Biden “asylum seekers” didn’t worry co-pays or deductibles. Will also see drop in hotel revenues … seekers filling hotels to 100% capacity.
If we enter a period of stagflation as some are predicting, TACO won’t be able to blame biden as it will be his tariff policies.
You grossly underestimate the ability of politicians to blame other politicians.
He can blame elon. It doesn’t have to make sense… his folllowers are stupid cultists. He really doesn’t even have to say anything… they’ll dream up their own excuses.
A perpetual moron machine.