Expect a Bloody Protracted War
NATO is committed to support for ‘as long as it takes’—not to win, only to stave off Russian victory says the Wall Street Journal.
Please consider West’s Ukraine Strategy Will Mean a Prolonged, Bloody Stalemate
Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization last month rallied around a new slogan for Ukraine: “As long as it takes.” When a reporter asked President Biden to explain what that means, he said: “As long as it takes so Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.” Note what he didn’t say: as long as it takes for Ukraine to win.
The West’s strategy is to give the Ukrainians enough military aid to defend against Russian advances, and to counter Vladimir Putin’s belief that he can win on the ground or wait out the Alliance until it runs out of gas, wheat or patience—in other words, to wait Mr. Putin out.
While the Russians are taking a tactical pause after winning a protracted fight in Severodonetsk, the Ukrainians are being resupplied with even more equipment and ammunition. Rather than win through maneuver, the goal is now to win through exhaustion. Both Mr. Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky seek to wear the other side down, and the NATO promise of indefinite resupply to offset the Russian artillery advantage will likely result in even more static front lines.
As long as Messrs. Putin and Zelensky both believe they are winning, or at least not losing, and as long as they are listening to their generals and not their diplomats, it is likely that this conflict will remain a slow, bloody and long war resembling the Western Front of 1915-18. “As long as it takes” may make the Donbas into a 21st-century Flanders field.
Institute for the Study of War
The ISW makes many Tweets daily regarding the progress or lack thereof.
Operational Pause
Batting for Putin?
People confuse being sick of endless US meddling and support for wars with going to bat for Putin.
Why Earnings and the Stock Market Will Get Crushed
A prolonged war was one of my 10 factors in Artificial Wealth vs GDP: Why Earnings and the Stock Market Will Get Crushed
Case for an Earnings Crash
- Recession
- De-globalization costs
- Retirement of 22 million boomers will lower productivity and slow spending
- De-carbonization is very expensive, do we even have the natural resources?
- End of a 40-year bull market in interests rates
- Potential for protracted war in Ukraine
- Central bank concern over reigniting inflation
- Renewed union push
- Wealth impact of stock market decline will itself slow spending
- Various bubbles have just begin to pop
With NATO and Biden committing to ‘as long as it takes’ while Germany and the EU stick with counterproductive sanctions, the case for a protracted war just increased.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
Thanks for Tuning In!
Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.
Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.
If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.
Mish
We are going to discover who did their operational calculations better in advance.
Remember, Putin said at the beginning the sanctions were inevitable anyways, and so far the EU seems in more sanctions danger than does Russia.
Russia will have none of it — they will proceed to destroy Ukraine’s military.
Remember, Putin wants to destroy the unipolar American world hegemony. After Ukraine, he wants NATO to back off, and American troops off his doorstop, including their missiles. Russia has been gaming this since 2007, when they warned they would develop new asymmetrical weapons and that nyet=nyet: no NATO on their doorstep. All of this has been a long time coming. Every opportunity to create peace and undo the damage (all weapons treaties and promises have been torn up by the US) has been rejected.
China & Russia no longer see the US as a rational party that one can deal with.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive
… and there has been none of that war business in the US. If you’re gonna fight, do it in somebody else’s house.
Kimberly Kagan, a military historian who is married to Frederick Kagan,
who is also a military historian and does work for ISW. Frederick is a
well-known neoconservative, though not as well-known as his brother
Robert. In the 1990s, Robert Kagan, along with Bill Kristol (who is on
ISW’s board), founded the Project for a New American Century, which in
the view of some observers played an important role in convincing George
W. Bush to invade Iraq.
who very publicly supported Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution—the
overthrow of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, which led Russia to
seize Crimea and give military support to secessionist rebels in the
Donbass.
you’re always afraid
better stop Hey, what’s that sound?
But the Russians have always told the truth! How can this be? It must be the intelligence agencies of every major nation collaborating in a perfect conspiracy! Evidence? How can there be evidence… the conspiracy is perfect! WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
You feel like Tucker when you say that?
“America goes not
abroad in search of monsters to destroy; she is the well-wisher to the freedom
and independence of all; she is the champion and vindicator only of her own.” John Q. Adams
I haven’t been very satisfied with voting, but I feel like I got to do something, and the only other things I can think of would almost certainly get me shot.