There’s no official word but I remain optimistic for a deal.
Please consider the WSJ article Ukraine Holds a Weak Hand by Walter Russell Mead.
It is in the wake of a disastrous meeting in which Trump expected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign a deal with Ukraine over mineral rights. In return, Trump would hammer out a peace deal with Putin.
Instead of a glorious signing, the meeting blew up when Zelensky pressured Trump for troops on the ground to preserve peace.
Mead writes …
Mr. Trump went into the meeting with the hope that he had found a path forward. He believes that Moscow is ready to accept a compromise peace that leaves Ukraine smaller, weakened and out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but still viable as a country. He thinks that the minerals deal, which Mr. Zelensky’s White House visit was to celebrate, offers him a way to satisfy key constituencies while bringing the war to an end. The minerals deal can be packaged as an “America first” win for the MAGA crowd, and it differentiates the Trump Ukraine policy from Joe Biden’s feckless approach.
MAGA happy, Ukraine rescued, normal relations with Moscow restored as a first step in pulling Russia and China apart, and the outside chance of a Nobel Peace Prize—for Mr. Trump, this looks like a winner all around.
Kyiv understandably wants more. Burned by the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to offer protection when Russia invaded in 2014, and burned again when the West’s response to the February 2022 attack proved insufficient, Kyiv wants Article 5-style security guarantees enshrined in treaties, ideally as part of NATO membership. It wants American and other NATO boots on the ground. It refuses to accept permanent cessions of territory to Russia as part of a final peace agreement.
Ukraine’s concerns are well founded, but with Mr. Trump in the Oval Office, most of Kyiv’s goals are unobtainable. Mr. Zelensky knows he must choose whether to work within the framework the Americans have offered him or to fight on with diminished and perhaps vanishing American assistance, relying on European economic and military aid together with the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people to force Russia to agree to better terms. With European leaders urging him to consider a one-month cease-fire, the prospects for meaningful as opposed to theatrical European support seem slim.
After the Oval Office meltdown, the question for Mr. Zelensky is simple: Is Ukraine better off accepting the Trump framework and trying to push for more favorable terms inside the process, or is it better off rejecting the framework up front in hopes of forcing Mr. Trump to offer something more appealing?
Like many Americans, your Global View columnist regrets the failure of successive U.S. presidents to offer more support for Ukraine over the years. But given Mr. Trump’s oft-repeated views, Mr. Zelensky would be wise to accept the minerals agreement and to let negotiations proceed. Sadly, no better offers are coming his way.
Almost
This isn’t a case of weak hand, it’s a case of no cards at all.
I can overlook that, but Mead ruins a brilliant essay with mush about militarily supporting Ukraine.
And like the Journal editorial board, Mead fails to address the West’s repeatedly broken responses about NATO moving east.
Mead’s conclusion is sensible “Sadly, no better offers are coming his way.” Some may wish to remove the word sadly.
History Lesson for the WSJ
Flashback March 12, 2014: McCain Heads to Ukraine with Seven Other Senators; Let’s Hope They All Stay; Ugly is Beautiful
Here’s the question of the day: What can senators John McCain (R-Az), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) do for Ukraine?
The answer of course is simple: Nothing.
So, why is that group of eight senators wasting money going there? The only possible answer is some combination of arrogance, political foolishness, and support for warmongering.
How Ugly Can it Get?
Inquiring minds just may be wondering “How ugly can this get?”
That’s a good question. I bring it up because Secretary of State John Kerry stated “[This] can get ugly fast if the wrong choices are made, and it can get ugly in multiple directions“.
Mercy! John Kerry made an accurate statement. I suspect however, we do not see eye-to-eye regarding “wrong choices”
History Lesson Part II
Flashback February 24, 2022 What’s the Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?
What Happened in Ukraine?
The mess today in Ukraine has its roots in the 2014 when democratically elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych was toppled in a US-backed coup.
Sen. John McCain (R‑AZ), the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, went to Kiev to show solidarity with the Euromaidan activists. McCain dined with opposition leaders, including members of the ultra right-wing Svoboda Party, and later appeared on stage in Maidan Square during a mass rally. He stood shoulder to shoulder with Svoboda leader Oleg Tyagnibok.
Q: Why did the US want to get rid of Yanukovych?
A: Because he was against Ukraine joining NATO.
The current comedian president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, repeated two days ago his desire to join NATO. I use the term comedian because he literally is a comedian who ran for office and won.
McCain dined with Svoboda Party leader Oleg Tyagnibok. The Svoboda Party is a group of neo-Nazis.
The citizens of Ukraine were used as pawns in yet another US mission that backfired.
And that’s the rest of the story US media will not discuss.
This no way absolves Putin, but US meddling backfires again, and again, and again.
History Lesson Part III
February 12, 2025: Trump Will Talk with Putin on a Peace Deal, No NATO for Ukraine
By applying pressure on both sides, I expect Trump will succeed on a good deal.
The WSJ and Europe were shocked that Trump and vice-president J.D. Vance took NATO off the table.
However, it was Ukraine’s crossing Russia’s red line on NATO that started the war. The US and Ukraine both understood Russia’s red line.
When Trump says Zelensky started the war, that is what he meant.
To repeat, that does not excuse Russia. However, war was the expected result once Zelensky foolishly insisted Ukraine should join NATO.
The WSJ editorial board has been a disaster from the beginning on Ukraine. In contrast, I believe I got things right.
Drivel Over Yanukovych
In response to the above I received pushback drivel and denial that the US had a hand in the toppling of Yanukovych.
It’s moot. The unquestionable fact is Zelensky pledged to join the EU and NATO. Then Putin invaded.
So, who’s fault is the war?
Sensible people, there aren’t many, see this as little different than President Kennedy demand Russia not put missiles in Cuba.
Zelensky flagrantly violated a Putin red line with consequences. Then he demanded more protection from Trump, so the meeting blew up.
Ukraine Already Lost the War But the EU Hasn’t Figured That Out
On February 24, I commented Ukraine Already Lost the War But the EU Hasn’t Figured That Out
A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.
Mish Flashbacks
August 27, 2022: Ukraine Violent Stalemate Sets In, How Long Can It Last?
Ultimately, this will end in a negotiated settlement.
How long can Ukraine deal with 60% inflation? EU with energy costs? Russia with difficulty in getting parts and losing military equipment?
November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?
A Tweet from NATO appears to back a negotiated peace in Ukraine. That was followed hours later by an official denial.
What’s Guaranteed to Happen?
I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.
When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.
Zelensky drove for a bargain that neither the US nor Russia would accept. In short, Russia would not sign a deal if it involved US or NATO enforcement of the border.
Trump understands Putin’s red line. Zelensky failed miserably twice. That’s really all there is to this.
WSJ Editorial Board Nonsense
As expected, the WSJ editorial board is 100 percent in favor of prolonging the war. Today, it writes The Kremlin Keeps Escalating
President Trump assures Americans that Vladimir Putin wants “peace” in Ukraine, but the key question is what kind of peace? The answer seems to be a peace of subjugation in which Ukraine is left to defend itself with no outside help until Russia decides to invade again.
That’s the implication of Thursday’s comments from Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, that the Kremlin won’t tolerate Western European troops on Ukrainian soil. “We see no room for compromise,” Mr. Lavrov told reporters Thursday at a press conference in Moscow. The presence of European forces in Ukraine would mean the “undisguised involvement of NATO countries in a war against the Russian Federation. It’s impossible to allow this.”
This is no surprise, as Russia responds to Mr. Trump’s pressure on Ukraine by increasing its demands as part of any agreement with Ukraine. Mr. Trump has already conceded to Mr. Putin’s demand that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO after the war ends. Now Russia is rejecting the French-British Plan B, which would put some of their troops in Ukraine after the war, though not under NATO auspices.
And Paul Wolfowitz write for the WSJ Trump’s Choice in Ukraine: Chamberlain or Eisenhower?
Mr. Zelensky faces comparable pressure. He will likely need to compromise on the open-ended promise, often voiced by the Biden administration, to fight for “as long as it takes.” Convincing the Ukrainian people to accept a compromise armistice that leaves Russia occupying significant portions of eastern Ukraine won’t be easy. But it will likely be necessary to achieve an enduring end to the, war, since there is little chance that Mr. Putin will agree to full restoration of the Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which Russia promised to respect when it signed the Clinton administration’s 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
To gain public support for an unpopular compromise, Mr. Zelensky will need firm assurances of continued arms supplies to deter Russian aggression, along with a European military presence on the ground, backed by the U.S.
From the outside, we can’t know whether Mr. Trump is following the Chamberlain pattern. If he is, he has time to change course.
Wolfowitz was deputy defense secretary (2001-05). Good riddance.
He is a discredited Neocon nutcase that supported the disastrous second war in Iraq that destabilized the region and led to ISIS.
The fact is Russia is so damn weak it is not expanding war anywhere.
Returning to reality ..
On February 28, I commented Trump-Zelensky Meeting Implodes, Trump Says “Come Back When You Want Peace”
Put a minerals’ deal with Ukraine temporarily on hold, but Zelensky “has no cards”.
On March 4, I commented Zelensky Seeks Deal One Day After Trump Cancels All Aid to Ukraine
Yesterday, Trump paused all military aid to Ukraine after a disastrous meeting with Zelensky last Friday. Now what?
Meanwhile, Zelensky made matters worse for himself. Russian troops are regaining ground.
The irony is Ukraine’s Rare Earth Mineral Reserve Is More Hype Than Reality
Ponder the implications of the headline and note the obvious bluffs.
Russia did not increase its demands. It has steadily said Ukraine will not be in NATO. By implication, there should be no NATO troops defending Ukraine. This is a red line that neocons cannot see (or refuse to see because they seek perpetual war). Which is it?
Nonetheless, I am optimistic about a deal because Trump wants this settled and there is no other way forward.
Wolfowitz and the WSJ editorial board would risk WWIII. I suggest we send them all to the front line along with Senator Lindsey Graham to Lead the Charge.
Russia will only agree when their oft-repeated goals are achieved. Ukraine will have no choice but unconditional surrender. The current ongoing collapse of the Kursk ‘offensive’ will only accelerate Ukraine’s lurch to disastrous defeat, regardless of outside support.
Europeans are ruling and bullying the world for a few centuries. Now its getting weaker and weaker and leading to terminal decline. Europe is a museum now and can’t catch up with the world. Ukraine war makes them irrelevant to the modern world. US leadership is crumbling too. Multipolar world order is coming. Prepare and adjust to it.
Well stated, sir. ☮
Without comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P18Af05W9FI
If you want people to look at something on another site, it helps to tell people what the subject is. I ignored your link because I have no idea what it is for and I don’t like surprises.
Difficult to see that the Saudi meeting is going to be anything other than:
So Zelensky can’t say yes but is blamed for the collapse of talks.
Along with that we will have comments from the Europeans complaining that they weren’t involved but not managing to put together a coherent story themselves.
So we will be left with more suffering.
Ukraine wouldn’t have to become Belarus. How hard would it be to
1) stay out of NATO
2) keep the CIA and western troops out and
3) let people speak Russia and reopen their churches?
Compare growth in the countries that joined the EU post soviet control. Croatia, Poland, Czech all doing well. Compare with Belarus, Montenegro, Moldova etc. It was the move towards the EU that triggered Putin not a move to NATO.
I think this is the difference between people in US who can’t understand why the war happened and those in Europe that remember the wall and can see the stiffling effect Russia has on its satellites.
EU membership with a commitment not to join NATO would work for Ukraine but I doubt it would for Putin. New member EU style growth in Ukraine would have a real damaging effect on the Russian population.
I am careful to say “New member” growth as old member growth is an embarrassement.
And how do you know that is what the WHOLE population of Ukraine wants, Einstein?
That is a fair point. There are really two Ukraines now.
There have ALWAYS been “two Ukraines” (THREE actually) , but you are just one of those who discovered Ukraine yesterday and got all of his informations from the always honest and reliable Western MSM so you know jack shit about Ukraine and Ukrainians (not to mention Belarus, as it’s clear from your post).
I have lived and worked in Belarus (and Russia) and my wife is from the Donbas, where we also have an apartment, and 99% of the people here (Mish included) keep spouting utter nonsense and have literally no idea what’s been happening, what’s happening now and what’s going to happen yet keep on posting their UNinformed opinions instead of paying attention to the few knowledgeable voices…
There were at least two Ukraines already in 2014, when Lugansk & Donetsk declared independence after the CIA coup overthrew Ukraine’s democracy.
Was it the WHOLE population of Ukraine that wanted war with the Donbas and Crimea, war to the Russian language and culture and ultimately war with Russia, Newton?
Until the Anglo-Americans installed them to power with the 2014 coup the Banderists from West Ukraine had NEVER WON A SINGLE ELECTION, Newton.
If Spanish speakers in the states of TX, NM & AZ decided they wanted to be part of Mexico as they felt more comfortable with the language and heritage of Mexico, the government of the USA would smite them until they settled down or up and moved to Mexico on their own.
Why is that hypothetical situation different from what occurred in Ukraine?
The answer in very easy and simple and you would know it if you knew anything about Ukraine and Ukrainians: the USA is not a Frankenstein state recently made by Mexico after being largely part of Mexico for most of its existence and after being put together with a piece of Canada that Mexico recently conquered from the British who taught the native Canadians to hate the Mexicans. And also, the USA isn’t made largely out of the same ethnic group of the Mexicans and has not always had a Mexican culture and spoken Spanish.
Both Mexico and the USA are countries roughly founded at the same time by European colonizers.
Colonizers from different European countries with different cultures and different languages.
One day the European will form a new NATO ex Turkey and the US.
mostly cause they enjoy fighting with friends they’ve known for decades. The problem isn’t NATO or the USA, its the bankers, its always been the bankers.
good.
Can’t happen – they’d never agree on anything. This is why the US is so key to NATO. Ignore the money – it is the leadership that counts. Hoping that the US will come to its senses after you get rid of agent Krasnov (dislike baiting :)).
One day the Palestinians rulers will beg Israel to join them in a union.
Doom and gloom sell: SPX might end up with a large selling tail
It’s up to Ukraine at this point. I suspect Russia will not accept less than the four region is annexed, parts of which are still controlled by Ukraine. Ceding control of territory is a political minefield for Ukraine, especially since it would mean the war could have ended in late 2022 when unofficial negotiations were first reported between the Russians and the West. By accepting this, Ukraine would essentially acknowledge all its losses in 2023 & 2024 were for nothing.
A peace deal on these terms would also be a blow to Nato, which failed to force its will on an adversary many times less its size despite throwing the kitchen sink at it, and on Europe in particular which paid dearly in terms of inflation and lost economic output for essentially nothing.
The US would lose in terms of influence, and it too has paid a price in terms of inflation, but at least the US did gain economically at the expense of Europe who was forced to purchase expensive gas from it. The US would also be free to focus on China, and will surely be keen to try to split Russia from China (even if the likelihood of that happening anytime soon is slim).
Russia would gain 20-30% of Ukraine, and will undoubtedly propagandize its “victory” over Nato globally. However, at the cost of 100K – 200K soldiers, the price seems a little too high. Russia would have probably never entered the war if it thought this would be the cost.
If it prevented NATO (US) Nuclear Missiles being installed in Ukraine, I’m sure the Russian were, while not happy, glad to pay the price, to keep a nuke free Ukraine.
So much democracy in every nuclear warhead – its why the USA wants to spread them around the world. Rapid uncontrolled nuclear fission is not a stable means of statesmanship.
Very smart comment, although I agree with Gwako that by 2022, Russia no longer had the option of letting the U.S. station nuclear missile in Ukraine – which Blinken told Lavrov in January 2022 the US reserved the right to do.
Unless Ukraine withdraws from the remaining portions of the four oblasts, Russia will keep fighting to take them. If the Ukrainian army is totally decimated by then, Russia may decide to take even more – especially Kharkov, which they’re well positioned to do, since they’re gaining control of Sumy. Odessa is less likely because the population there is now more Ukrainian than Russian.
Last year SPX closed at 5,882. If 2025 low is in: 5,666 and if SPX high will be: 6,500, peace on earth will send SPX almost one thousand points up.
Nixon understood the biggest stakes, so he went with the then-weaker superpower (China) to rebalance toward the stronger (USSR). Europe has a different view with a land border with Russia. But this is not 1945. Europe weakening Russia (not a stable outlook in itself) in this scenario means it is pulled more by/into China’s sphere of control. Sometimes one must pick the lesser of big junkyard dogs to become, if not friendly, then adjusted toward. China’s tendrils into Europe would be very hard to untangle.
When Marshall lost China Truman blamed Stalin. He kept millions in Europe, Japan,
and Korea to reduce unemployment. The cold war divide the world between USSR and the US, until the Eurozone was born in 1998 and China became a WTO member in Dec 2001. NATO kept the Europeans under the US umbrella for 70 years, but the US is losing its grip after piling too much debt.
The problem with a plutonium backed US Dollar, is the exchange rate is a killer.
“Inquiring minds just may be wondering “How ugly can this get?”
Well, in the immortalized words of the Prime Minister of Denmark, “Peace in Ukraine will be more dangerous than war.”
The ankle biters keep barking…
“Poland PM fires off blistering attack on Europe’s ‘cowardice’ as he seeks nuclear weapons to stare down Putin.”
you know if Ukraine is too problematic, it can be dissolved or sold to Israel, Ukraine becomes more problematic, its value dissolves.
There is no point in preserving a rapidly depreciating asset, you convert it, dump it or take the losses.
Maybe sell it to Denmark, they seem to need a large chunk of land that they cannot do anything with.
My take, 32-year US Navy O6 OIF Vet: I am optimistic … about … Absolutely Nothing. Inconsistency, Unclear Messaging, Broken Treaty Promises, Chaos and Instability breeds Instability and Chaos. In a nuclear-weapon-ed world, this chaos moves the second hand of the dooms-day clock to within a few seconds of midnight. Sad business for America and American citizens.
So why the hell should Ukraine think that a “deal” signed by Trump will be worth the paper it’s signed on???
Secretary of Treasury confirmed that USA won’t resume supplying intelligence, weapons, and ammunition to Ukraine, peace deal or no peace deal. That ship has sailed.
They need to cut off all other countries (including NATO & Five Eyes) from intelligence.
They ARE providing it to Russia, their new partner. Makes you feel a proud American, doesn’t it?
I don’t think you undestand SIGINT..
What exactly does the Sec of Treasury Have to do with intelligence info for Ukraine?
But the US IS sharing it with Russia. Find this alarming?
why would the usa share russian intelligence with russia? Russia already knows what it knows.
your statement makes no sense.
Looks like you need a better news source!
Trump flips and flops like a live fish out of water. Nothing he says can be trusted for more than a few hours, minutes or ever..
You watch the fish in the aquarium and admire the colors and shapes. A biologist watches the fish and considers the species interactions, the health of the fish and the plants.
you have insignificant knowledge or insight to understand what Trump is doing. you are watching the fish and are dazzled by the color and motion.
LOL. So what you are saying is that
Ukraine should not surrender to Russia. Europe is motivated to step-up and take the place of the USA to support Ukraine.
Trump is going to lose on this one, which is apropos for a bully.
Well, I’m motivated to win gold in the Olympic high jump, but I’ve never done it before, I have a 6″ vertical jump and I’m forty years too old. But I’m motivated.
Personifying yourself into a county or bloc of countries proves your lack of being sentient.
It’s called a metaphor. You might have heard of it. Quite sentient. But gratuitous petulance, on the other hand, is quite patent here.
The attempted metaphor is not proportional and therefore not applicable. D’oh.
The EU will be “shaping the European identity” by restoring conscription, hiking taxes and doubling down on centralization of power. Never let a good crisis be wasted. It’s all too predictable.
It’s caused by Trump. When all is said and done, it is clear that Trump is likely to be solidly rated as the worst US President of all time.
TDS isn’t a metaphor. It should be in the DSM.
That TDS can get out of hand quickly, consider a hobby or volunteering in your community once you finish your 12 step program. You’ll probably be more centered, calmer and just a happier human.
Casualties:
Ukraine: approx 700k
Russia: approx 700k
US: credibility
You have to do better than this, Jojo.
Huh?
Why doesn’t Europe just invade Russia and cut out their proxy middleman, the Ukraine altogether?
They desire peace so strongly they’ll kill every Russian to get it. Europe the peaceful source of every World War ever.
“There is no other way forward” is the main deciding factor.
Even if the EU’s fantasy army rocked up in the trenches to start nuclear war, there’s no money to pay for it… EU is broke and is being invaded itself by illegal immigrants. The superstate trying to coerce the youth of Europe to commit suicide for an unwinnable war is going to be worse than herding cats, this impoverished generation will take to the streets in violent protest, especially in France. Get real Macron.
Here’s a question:
America reigned on:
Open Skies treaty
INF nuclear treaty
ABM treaty
JCPOA
USMCA “Best deal ever” Trump 2019; “We need a better cheese deal” Trump 2025
Minsk I
Minsk II
trashed Instanbul accords
WTO treaties
Paris climate (in, out, in, out–it’s like an Epstein home video!)
Why, why in the Tsar’s name would Russia trust anything signed by America? Especially when they are winning ie: The Russians Deliver A Crushing Blow In Kursk Oblast💥Kostiantynopil Has Fallen🏰MS 9.03.2025
Keep up the great analysis Mish!
They won’t.
They will demand actions that show intent and improve the situation.
Starlink. Why hasn’t Trump turned it off? I don’t care for either party but Trump is not going to end this war. He’s transferring it to western Europe so the US can focus on China. We are also out of weapons to give Ukraine so even if he wanted to supply them there isn’t anything to give them.
There are reports of starlink failing in the Kursk region, and filtering out any ISR to use in targeting the Russian hinterland. The mineral deal and getting the Euro chihuahuas to spend big time on American weapons are to make it all look like winning.
Reports are not the same Webei. He could declare right now Starlink is turned off. Simple. He will not do it.
I voted for him but I also knew this would happen along with many other things he said he would do but never will. The war is never going to end. He is transferring it to western Europe. They focus on Russia and we focus on China.
The war on Russia is just getting cranked up. If you want to check out a real subject matter expert on it that’s not legacy media or a crappy podcaster:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=EufxrTk3yoQ
Unlike armchair generals such as yourself, Musk does not get to choose winners and losers in war.
He provides a service that has been contracted for and is being paid for by Poland. That is all.
The Ukrainian effort to capture the Nuclear plant and large nuclear weapons facility and storage in Kursk failed after the first couple of days. They have been forced back every day ever since. Now they are stuck in a little pocket with nowhere to go.
Starlink has never been reliable in the area involved. It is roughly analogous to the wilderness in Alaska There is no need to provide coverage there.
Russia keeps talking about the root causes, not even mentioned in the article.
Russia is worried about its security, and not so much about Ukraine in NATO as NATO in Ukraine. Biden assured Putin that the US would not be stationing missiles in Ukraine, only to have Blinken reneg. NATO has been training and arming Ukraine since 2015, and used the Minsk deal to buy time. Russia has vociferously protested the Aegis missile installations in Deveselu, Romania and Redzikowo, Poland and the plans for the Dark Eagle missiles in Germany. It offered a treaty to NATO and the US in Dec 2021 in a last ditch effort to settle things diplomatically, but the Biden administration blew it off. These developments were the result of the US reneging on the ABM and INF treaties.
To resolve anything in Ukraine requires the US to convince Russia that they are not at war: diplomatic relations, normal economic relations, and addressing Russia’s security concerns. As to the Ukraine, Russia wants there to be elections, regime change, a compliant legal government that respects the human rights of Russians in the Ukraine, neutrality, a limited military, and outlawing of Banderist ethno-nationalist ideology. Putin likely wants to incorporate the rest of Novorossiya in Russia, but not through conquest if a simple referendum on self-determination will suffice.
So expect either a revamping of the security architecture, else Russia will force a capitulation. Putin’s main concern is how to make this look like a win for Trump without giving up any existential concerns; and that is Trump’s main concern as well, how to come out looking a winner and a peace-maker.
Russia should be worried about the new NATO border along Finland that it helped crete by attacking Ukraine and which stretches 830 miles.
as Hitler learned, its difficult to fight a war on many fronts simultaneously. Were I a Finn, I’d worry where Russia’s focus might turn, when Ukraine returns to a smouldering lump of minor oligarchs busy swindling each other out of the remnants of American largesse.
I should think Russia would not seek a hot war with Finland, but non-kinetic warfare would increase in Finland. I forsee infrastructure problems, power failures, and unexpected social issue, perhaps a rise of Green Trannies for a Green Finland.
What an idiotic dumb, unrealistic ignorant comment.
Your chosen post name apparently matches your brain power.
If Russia truly wanted to annex all of Ukraine and was as ruthless as the press often suggests, Kyiv would resemble Gaza today. Ukraine should consider negotiating a settlement now, before it finds itself pleading for the return of not only Crimea and the four eastern oblasts but also Odessa. As a significant concession and a gesture of good faith, Russia might offer to return the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—the largest in Europe—which it captured early in the war.
If Russia wanted Ukraine, why didn’t he admit the LDNR people’s republics to Russia in 2014 when they voted for independence and wanted to become Russian? The people with the Vladimir the Irrendist Conqueror of Europe narrative never bother to address this question.
Because that could have meant war with NATO, and Russia wasn’t ready for that back then. They used the next 8 years to build far and away the biggest stockpile of artillery shells in the world.
yes but Russia is not selfish, they did not build the biggest stockpile of artillery shells to horde for themselves, they are busy sharing them with the Ukraine.
“As a significant concession and a gesture of good faith, Russia might offer to return the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant”
Russia has been giving far too many significant concessions and showing far too much good faith (Putin’s fault) and all it got for it was being cheated multiple times (Euro Maidan, Minsk 1 and 2 and the Istanbul accords) and a big bloody war with its neighbor used as a proxy by the West and with the full involvement of NATO + a few non-NATO vassals. It’s now the turn of the West and of Ukraine to give significant concessions and offer gestures of good faith and apart from a few timid ones from the US, Russia is getting nothing. The opposite in fact.
The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant lies in the region of Zaporozhye which by Russian Constitution is now part of the Russian Federation and is INALIENABLE land. Not only there is ZERO possibility of it being ceded to whatever will be left and still called “Ukraine” at the end of the conflict but all of the rest of the region must and will be liberated by Russia. And not only the exact same goes for the Lugansk, Donetsk and Kherson regions but at the end of it all many more historically Russian regions will go back home to Russia.
The West is still living in fantasy land and debating and discussing with itself and with their puppets in Kiev about if and how to end the war and what conditions to impose on Russia, it really is peak Clown World…
lol, Gaza pictures are like LA pictures after a 4.5 earthquake. Pictures of the damage and none of the rest.
“Nonetheless, I am optimistic about a deal because Trump wants this settled and there is no other way forward.”
Russia is slowly losing this war economically and is running out of men to conscript to the battle field. This is another drag-out war that Russia is losing both on the front and at home.
Now is the time to push back at Putin. This is not the time to hand Ukraine on a platter to Putin.
FT (Feb 13)
“So, Vladimir Putin doesn’t want Ukraine in Nato, doesn’t want US troops in Ukraine, doesn’t want to give up any invaded territory. Even if these might have been acceptable concessions after getting something back from Russia, the apparently supreme negotiator hands all this to Putin on a plate before any meetings. Great negotiating”
Trump knows the war is lost, and does not want to be a loser; he wants Biden’s war to go away. He has no leverage, so he is not giving anything away.
Russia hasn’t even mobilized. It met 107% of its recruitment goals past month.
In the rest of the country they don’t even notice the SVO in their daily lives. The Russian army keeps getting bigger and more skilled. You are clutching on to a few pieces of copium dished up by the MSM.
Russia is not “slowly losing”, all sides are slowly losing. The diffrence is that Russia has a more of an appetite for self-destruction than the West, and that’s the deciding factor. Russia has a long history of absorbing hubristic attempts by foreign invaders.
Russia conscripts about a hundred thousand a year. They serve for about a year and are then released. So the conscripts from 2022 are long gone and the ones from 2023 have recently been released. The ones from 2024 are being discharged now.
Russia has one of he highest paid militaries in the world. They recruit about thirty thousand contract soldiers per month. There is no shortage of volunteers in relation to their needs.
at this point skip the details – peace for them would be better – peace for us domestically would be too
Saying Zelenski did this or that is really being kind of disingenuous. I understand what you are saying, but… Zelenski is only the medium that others are working through.
The real players behind Zelenski are the US and NATO Neocons. This group of evil idiots has been looking for ways to destroy Russia and acquire its vast wealth for decades. Many have admitted wanting little pieces of an enemy Russia since the mid-1800s.
With the EU in Dire straits financially, they see an opening for raising new cash as war for an excuse. This is the real reason for the war drums beating in Europe. They actually think they can win, it’s foolish thinking.
Perfidious Albion. They’ve been manipulating the US for decades. And they’ve been causing trouble in Russia since the Crimean War. They tried to take Trump down in 2016. Hopefully the entire Five Eyes setup will be dissolved. With friends like that, who needs enemies?
Albion really is not much of tail to wag that fat dog to the west over the sea.
It’s collapsing and derelicting under the weight of decades of Boa Constrictor welfare socialism, now indulging in a toxic tax raid everywhere.
And thank God for that.
Zelensky is a prophelatic for the neocon phallus.
Americans should be asking: How much $TRUMP coin did Putin buy to convert the US to a Russian ally?
Or did he have enough kompromat that they didn’t have to buy any?
Russia will lose this war, whether it takes a short or a long while.
Ukrainians understand they face genocide if they give up.
Ukraine is a winner, Trump/Putin are losers.
If you think Ukraine is losing try looking at how Jake Broe, retired US Missle Officer, so masterfully explains the situation. There’s a lot more to winning a war than simple accounting. If the “accountants” were right the war would have been over 3 yrs ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Mg5XSgsxlQ
How long do you want the US to fund 90% of a war where Ukranians and Russians are dying? Do you think we can “win” a proxy war against Russia? Are you certain enough that we could push Putin’s back against the wall and not risk WWIII or a nuclear exchange? I understand you disagree that peace is the answer … so when do you deploy and what weaponry do you plan to fight the Russians with?
There is no peace with Russia. It’s an alien society that only thinks of war & conquest. Real peace only comes with Russia being dismantled.
Europe is stepping up in a big way. Say goodbye to the US defense industry.
Also, be careful what you wish for.
perhaps he used some leftover hunter biden paintings and a bag of white powder left behind by the previous occupant of the house T now resides in
Jake Broe. lol. I forgot about that ridiculous flamer.
I bet the price of meth these days is killing you.
“war was the expected result once Zelensky foolishly insisted Ukraine should join NATO”
Trump would be well advised to start creating a true narrative. It was not Zelensky that called for NATO. It was the US, NATO and the MI6/CIA that forced Ukraine to call for NATO
Either Trump grabs the whole shebang and creates a full European Security Framework, or he should just call it the CIA/MI6/Biden war and walk away
When Ukraine was granted independence post 1991, the agreement was they would remain NEUTRAL
I wonder why anyone still reads ANYTHING in the WSJ or any corporate CIA newspaper or TV network
They are part of the globalist evil that has cost a million Ukrainian men their lives as well as several hundred thousand Russian men. Never mind the HUNDREDS of billions of taxpayer dollars in the US and Europe
I say again. This whole affair has been EVIL
Same people who have done away with democracy in Romania
EVIL
Of course the US instigated the war in the Ukraine. After two assassination attempts, Trump may be reluctant to do that much truth telling, though.
Even Elon has suggested that there is some corruption he is reluctant to uncover for fear of being assassinated.
JFK was warning shell across the bow of the executive branch.
LBJ’s 1st question to J.Edgar Hoover, post Dallas assination of JFK.
“were there any shots fired at my limousine?”
look it up.
It seems quite likely that he will refer to it as “Biden’s War”, why not?
“When Ukraine was granted independence post 1991, the agreement was they would remain NEUTRAL”
Even more than that: Ukraine’s neutrality was written into Ukraine’s very own first Constitution when the Ukrainian state was created (much like Switzerland, Austria and many other states).
Needless to say, the Constitution was changed by the terrorist war criminals put in power by the Anglo-Americans with the coup of 2014 and the very opposite was written into it: Ukraine’s goal became full NATO and EU accessions.
“I wonder why anyone still reads ANYTHING in the WSJ or any corporate CIA newspaper or TV network”
And that’s why Mish and most posters here have no idea whatsoever about what’s really been happening in Ukraine in the last 3 years, what’s happening now and what’s going to happen…
GIGO
I will repost what I have been writing since forever:
The Anglo-Euro-NATO war to Russia in Ukraine is coming to its natural end: capitulation of the extremist and illegitimate regime put in power by the Americans in 2014.
My wife, who is from the Donbas where we also have an apartment in one of its major cities, has a bottle of spumante ready.
The US-Russia negotiations will be around the new security architecture (basically a new Yalta) asked for by Putin for the last time at the end of 2021, in the face of ever growing NATO expansion and Anglo-American “color revolutions” and destabilizing terrorist activities.
The US-Russia negotiations will not be about Ukraine, Trump is clearly positioning himself to be able to drop Ukraine like the used condom that it is and walk away nominally leaving this failed project to the deranged EUropeans and the even more deranged Brits, which is totally fine by Putin since today’s NATO, against a peer adversary, has proved to be a paper tiger, NATO without the US is a wet paper tiger and everybody of real consequence around the world now knows it…
All of Trump’s moves (Canada, Greenland, Ukraine, tariffs etc etc) show that he is aware of the realities of the new “multipolar” world and of the failing USA and he is seeking to carve up and consolidate the best zone of influence possible for a much scaled down US and he will reach some agreement with the other two (re)emerging super-powers: Russia and China.
As an independent thinker, its horrific that two Christian Nations are attacking? What only hmm can’t say it, but you know what I’m talking about, killing Christians in Syria, pedos in Afghanistan?. Its horrific, the politics are one thing, but Russia and Ukraine are Christians and should seek peace at all costs. We are not the bottom feeders of civilization! Seek PEACE!
Israel supported HTS (fka Al Qaeda) in Syria and the Ukronazis in the Ukraine. I don’t think dead Christians was considered an unfortunate side effect.
This story about Russia invading the Ukraine because of the NATO threat seems like complete bs. Why pick on Ukraine when also Poland, Finland and other bordering countries want to go west? In his pre war speech, Putin only discussed how the Ukraine was historically a part of the Russian empire. No mention of its joining NATO. Putin just wants for the Ukraine to stop existing and to rebuild the former empire.
Wonder why no-one is asking why Russia did not attack Finland or Sweden for joining NATO? Why was it only bothered by Ukraine?
Because they’re irrelevant countries of 5 million people with no army or weaponry to speak of. Ukraine had the largest, most heavily-armed military in Europe and at least 12 CIA bases on its territory (per NYT). They had outlawed the Russia language (despite its being the most widely-spoken language in Ukraine) and had been bombing the Donbas for 8 years. A better question is what took Russia so long to intervene on behalf of Russians in the Ukraine. The answer is that they needed time to build up a stockpile of artillery and artillery shells ten times that of the combined West and a defense manufacturing capacity that dwarfs that of the West – in the things that matter to the war in the Ukraine.
No it’s because they are not The Ukraine, nor former-parts of the USSR. Kiev is to Russia what Kosovo is to Serbia; the difference being the ethnic composition and the history. Serbs were just sojourners in Kosovo.
Yes. That too only more so.
Finland joined NATO AFTER this conflict started. If Finland would have gone before the conflict, it could have been an issue. In that Finland is more of an EU country … it would have been a more bold step for Putin … but again … Finland started their NATO membership when Putin was already neck deep in what was supposed to be a 2 week exercise. Poland is a different story, but there were agreements to not move NATO further east.
Finland is an EU country; not more of one. Finland is obviously a western country, and always has been. It’s not part of the Russian soul like The Ukraine. It was once sa conquered territory of the empire long ago, but never an intrinsic part of it.
FInland abuts Russia on every map I’ve ever seen. Finland has always had annexation issues. It walks a tightrope.
FInland however does not block access to the Crimea and hasn’t blown up any Russian bridges lately.
Why pick on Ukraine about NATO? Because NATO forces were killing Russian speakers in Ukraine because they were Russian speakers. They did it to the tune of about twenty thousand killed before Putin finally after incomprehensibly stalling for years finally moved his troops across the border.
Ukraine joining NATO was Russia’s red line, but why did Ukraine want to join NATO if not because of concern for it’s long term security against Russia? Or are you suggesting that Russia had concerns over NATO initiating an invasion of Russia at some point in the future? I’m sincerely trying to understand this argument.
What is Putin’s overarching vision for eastern Europe?
Putting those Senators who COLLECT THE LOOT from Wars is never going to happen. We knew that.
What is criminal is that they profit from death.
Along with Graham and the others you mentioned, we need to send 7/8th of the Senate and 3/4 of the House. Then let the war rage on for 90 days. That should take care of a large part of the swamp.
Only much of the swamp is in unelected positions in the administrative complex or in the hands of those like Soros who put up NGOs that then get billions of taxpayer dollars and then recycle 50% of that into purchasing politicians. Musk has seen this and it is what is making politicians so angry at Musk.
Likely will be the most beautiful peace deal ever.
Trump does it again.
Praise King Trump.
Trump is at war with Ukraine together with Russia. Trump stopped satellite data to Ukraine but is sharing it with Russia for Russia to attack civilians. F-16-s given to Ukraine by Denmark were made useless by the US. Europe can no longer trust the US, nor can anyone else, including Canada. You guys need to wake up! Still calling this setup “peace”???
I repeat to let it sink in: Trump is sharing satellite data with Russia so Russia can better attack Ukrainian civilians to make them beg to sign his “deal”. Is this sick enough for you guys or will you find a few more ways to apologize for Trump?
Your a nut case.
Who is an apologist for Trump here. Many readers and our Author are NOT PRO-TRUMP….or Pro Ukraine or Russia or Europe.
We are PRO-FACTS!
Always remember … Truth is treason in the empire of lies.
Russia has its own satellites.
It is not peace, but PIECE.
As in: Piece of the ACTION. That is what war is for:
PROFITS. Everyone is in on it:
Ukraine has made a lot of money from this war FOR THE VESTED INTERESTS.
I wish I disagreed with you.
It explains EU and UK enthusiasm for it. The EU is broke, and the UK is on a desperate tax raid. Both trying to avoid inevitable cuts to their obese socialist utopian public sectors; there’s always a Deep State trying to feed.
Yes, and Trump was shooting his mouth off the other day about his concern with all the people being killed in this war.
Yet when Russia pounced on Ukraine with an increased barrage of missile attacks that killed and wounded more Ukrainas after Trump shut off USA satellite data, Trump said that was what he expected Putin to do. Say what? Just Trump’s usual baffle everyone with BS statements.
If they could, Europe would carry on fighting the war. If it can, Russia would like a bigger chunk before stopping the war (not the whole country however). Somehow Trump thinks that taking it as the US’s proxy war, or defence more accurately, he gets to dictate that it shall end. A nice feather in his cap. It’s more complicated than that as you suggest.
Ukraine needs to sue for peace.