Due to Federal Reserve Beige Book regional reports, investors increasingly believe the Fed will go on a rate hike spree this year.
CME Fedwatch sees things this way.
Talk of $100 Oil
Fun New Narrative
When We All Believe the Same Thing
That's my "Tweet of the Day"
Market in Turmoil
This is the same thing that happened in 2008. When oil hit $140, I recall comments like "Next stop $200, then $300".
The same sentiment is in play right now. Nearly everyone is convinced that the inflation bet is a "sure thing".
Atwater provides a study in psychology. Others look at fundamentals:Trade wars and rate hikes will slow the already slowing the global economy. We are near the end of this cycle.
- Saxo Bank Quarterly Outlook: End of a Cycle Like No Other
- Fed's Beige Book Notes "Dramatic" Increases in Prices Due to Tariffs
- Germany Recession Indicator Flashes Yellow (Median Possibility 32%)
Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management is fully invested in Treasuries with an average duration of a bit over 20 years. For details, please see The Name is Bond, Long Bond.
I side with Lacy.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock