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Five Signs, Led by Grains, Say Food Prices Will Keep Going Up

Wheat Futures chart courtesy of Nasdaq

Soybean Futures 

Soybean Futures chart courtesy of Nasdaq

Corn Futures 

Corn Futures chart courtesy of Nasdaq

Live Cattle Futures 

Live Cattle Futures chart courtesy of Nasdaq

Lean Hogs

Lean Hogs Futures chart courtesy of Nasdaq

Global Wheat Exports

The Wall Street Journal reports Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher

The two nations combined account for 29% of global wheat exports, according to data from the U.S. Agriculture Department. The nearby Black Sea serves as a major conduit for international grain shipments and Ukraine is also among the top exporters of barley, corn and rapeseed.

The mounting tensions and growing militarization along the Russia-Ukraine border have helped drive wheat futures traded in Chicago up over 7% over the past two weeks to nearly $8 a bushel Monday—which is just below a nearly decade high of $8.50 a bushel reached last year.

Ukraine is renowned as the breadbasket of Europe, thanks in part to its nutrient-rich “black earth” soils. But its key wheat growing regions and ports lie in Ukraine’s south and east, putting them close to Russian-held territory, analysts said. Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast, which borders both Russia and the separatist-held regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, is Ukraine’s most productive wheat region, according to data from the USDA.

Black Sea Geoeconomics

Data from USDA chart courtesy of Aljazeera

Aljazeera comments on Russia, Ukraine and the Global Wheat Supply.

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, accounting for more than 18 percent of international exports.

In 2019, Russia and Ukraine together exported more than a quarter (25.4 percent) of the world’s wheat, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity

Percentages are higher today. 

Corn Too

Reuters reports Ukraine’s unmatched corn crop gains encroach on rival exporters

Today, Ukraine accounts for 16% of global corn exports and 12% of wheat, but the Black Sea country was nearly a non-factor in trade at the start of the century, especially for corn.

Biden Says “I Feel Your Pain”, He Means His Pain in Polls

Please note Biden Says “I Feel Your Pain”, He Means His Pain in Polls

Feel “My” Pain

When Biden says he feels your pain he is lying.

What he really means is he feels the pain of the upcoming midterm blowout in which Republicans take the House and Senate.

If Biden was honest he would be saying I feel “my” pain, not I “feel” your pain.

He still wants “free” education, although he reluctantly concedes it will not happen. He still has all sorts of environmental demand all of which will raise the price of energy.

And he wants to unionize everything which of course will increase prices and encourage more outsourcing.

In short, Biden is a liar and a hypocrite who feels only his pain, not yours.

That applies to politicians in general. But the person in office is the one most deserving of attack at the moment.

CPI Up Most in 40 Years

For more on the CPI, please see CPI Jumps Most Since February 1982, Up at Least 0.5% 9 Out of Eleven Months

Alleged “Benefits of Running the Economy Hot”

Meanwhile, Charles Evans, president and chief executive officer of the Chicago Fed wants to run the economy hot.

For discussion, please see Chicago Fed President Praises the “Benefits of Running the Economy Hot”

Finally, I fail to see how the Fed hiking or a sanction war will fix this.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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9 Comments
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Siliconguy
Siliconguy
4 years ago
Also not helping the supply issue was the drought in the PNW. Winter wheat harvest last year was barely half of normal.  Various other crops like potatoes were affected as well. 
And the slugging just started in the Donbas. At least NPR will be happy. When did they switch from anti war to pro war? 
Call_Me
Call_Me
4 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
They switched in January of 2021.  They were very pro when it came to Syria a couple administrations ago.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
4 years ago
great insights.   agree on the whole thing.   especially the really twisted president who has been an idiot for over 50 years in offices.  
Cocoa
Cocoa
4 years ago
Well, Mish was so into Trump-bashing he sort of got what he wanted. And Biden doing everything Trump did(tariffs) and now Russia-baiting into a major war. In fact, my life was so much better under that guy Trump before DNC and CCP ginned up the pandemic to run him out of office. 
-We were a net exporter of energy
-Record minority unemployment
-Concerted efforts into returning manufacturing to US soil(with a ton of resistance)
-The Wokes were on their back heels
-North Korea was settled down
-Ukraine was deservedly ignored
-Southern Border was closed and DNC couldn’t stock the pong with immigrant voters
I guess Trump was a moron and had the diction of an 8 year old but man, Biden he is TERRIBLE. And Harris, who is an order magnitude even more clueless is in the wings waiting for Joltin’ Joe to have a stroke
shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
What strikes me are the continuous boom and bust of the pork and beef markets.  We’re in the boom, probably a 25-30% bust coming up sometime this year.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
4 years ago
What food inflation?  Four tomatoes and two green peppers = $15.35 (US)  in the Bahamas.
ohno
ohno
4 years ago
And the dems are getting warnings to change direction or get wiped out in the upcoming election.  That’s as timely as their Ukraine reaction lol.  They’ll be holding mask burning parties and have BLM in front of pfizer headquarters by November.
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Yes this is an important part of the crisis puzzle . But China has huge stockpiles of grain that also may be contributing to inflationary pressures .
Mean while back at the ranch I got 2 lbs of Arkansas whole grain rice for   1.20 at dollar tree.    
Ziggy
Ziggy
4 years ago
The SNAP program(Food Stamps) recipients were given a huge raise last fall.  They normally have a COLA; were given a temporary 15% increase due to the pandemic which expired on September 30, 2021.  This was replaced on October 1, 2021 with a 27% increase.  Approximately 10% of the population is on SNAP.  How many working people were given a raise which matched the CPI ?  Now the food companies have been given a license to increase prices more than they otherwise could because there is more free money to take !  Even 20%(of the 27%) for 10% of the population implies 2% more food inflation for everybody.

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