Hello Mr. President, still want to hand out $1.3 trillion in free bribe money?
Bond Yields Surge
The 30-year long bond yield is the highest since Summer of 2007.
Highest Since Global Financial Crisis
Hello Treasury Secretary
AAA Fuel Prices
Another day, another record diesel price. Interestingly the price of gasoline jumpedmore than diesel today.
Crude Prices
- West Texas: $101.35 up $5.25
- Brent: $106.61 up $5.42
Wow,
The price of gasoline and diesel will both jump tomorrow.
Rate Hike Odds
In six days the Fed is going to hike.
I doubt even a good CPI report tomorrow can change that.
For discussion, please see my August 31 post Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September
Change “may” to “will”.
For my opening comment, please see Trump Offers $5,000 Bribe to All Adults if Republicans Hold Congress
The only way the US Fed will raise rates on Sept 16th is if they are 100% certain that the BOJ will do so on Sept. 18th.
And what foolish thing does our Trump sycophant do when faced with this and awaiting financing of further record deficits?
He continues to STUPIDLY BURN POLITICAL CAPITAL!
”
Scott Bessent dared the $32 trillion bond market with ‘I am the house now’ statement. It didn’t listen”
The fool is showing up for a fight when he’ll be bagging for lending.
I’ve said he’ll be our worst Treasurey Sec.ever and he’s working on that!
I laughed when a friend of mine quips today “Hey, we could cut the cost of the “Dividend” in HALF by naming it (Big letters) “THE TRUMP MAGA DIVIDEND”. Half of the folks would be outraged over the name and his picture on the check and refuse the bribe./sarc
So did the Feds just buy up $18.5BB of the $22BB today? No wonder we got such a robust auction. Magic printer money FTW
https://www.reddit.com/r/WallstreetWhales/comments/1wchjda/us_treasury_now_expected_to_buy_back_185_billion/
Good God, I hope you’re being sarcastic. Or otherwise, you’re clueless about the deficits/debts.
The Treasury buys some bonds occasionally to change the maturity structure of the debt. BUT it does not have any ‘extra’ funds to do so (it operates Congress’ checking account) and the US goes further into debt every day/week/month/… So the Treasury has to issue NEW bonds to pay for the bonds it “buys up”.
And to the SIZE effect of your Reddit expertise chain (LOL), the Treasury just issued (auctioned off) 1/4 of a trillion $ in short-term bonds in the past two days: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/ The numbers you’re quoting are miniscule in the debt market of US bonds that are traded every day.
Sheesh
I think the Treasury has access to far more reserves which I think is why he calls out Bissett for taunting with a much smaller (than.deificits) buyback
Bissett is not doing this to.rearrange.cashflow.
If you really did run a $1B+ fund in the past, you should know that the Treasury does not have “reserves”. Unlike the Fed, the Treasury cannot ‘print money’. If Bessent buys some bonds, in a very short time if not immediately, he must issue new bonds to get those funds. That’s why it rearranges cashflow.
Yes, he’s jawboning the long end of the market, but it’s not working and it won’t/can’t work.
And that’s not what the Reddit post was about.
Oil surging? Well you were told it would be a cruel summer a while back, complete with musical tribute….
https://youtu.be/l9ml3nyww80?si=zqVqM4BU1AARnBlL
Fall officially starts Sept 23 so enjoy the cruel summer folks.
And who was that guy that kept asking when oil would surge? We’re getting there buddy…right on schedule.
Jojo has been oddly absent.
JoJo would just be saying it was all worth it for Americans to suffer so Israel can benefit. He has a one track mind, support the tribe.
“Small potatoes”
‘I love the inflation” – Trump, June 10, 2026
On caring about Americans’ finances when negotiating with Iran, May 2026: “Not even a little bit.”
“I love debt. I love playing with it.” – May 2016
“I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me… I’ve made a fortune by using debt, and if things don’t work out I renegotiate the debt.” – 2016
Is that what she says? I’ve had the Hide button turned on for months. Guess I am not missing anything.
Perhaps his contract ended?
Today the 30 year bond auction supposedly took place and finished at 2:00 eastern, but on econoday website this is posted: “Released On 9/10/2026 2:00:00 PM For 9/10/2026 6:00:00 PM”. Anybody know the reason for the delay? I checked Treasury’s website and found crickits on the matter.
Diesel crack spread over WTI is $110 per barrel. Traditionally it was $25. Major diesel availability problem is coming fast. Diesel inventories are very low. Trucks, tractors, construction and minning equipment run on diesel. Not on crude oil.
That was probably the main reason why Kushner&Witkoff comedial duo flew to Moscow and Kiev to perform another circuss show as higher Russian diesel exports would help to reduce the pressure. But neither Moscow nor Kiev agreed to energy and logisitics war truce.
ECB has just hiked by 25bps which cleared the way for FED’s hike.
Trump doesn’t seem to realize that Venezuela was a client state of Russia’s. And Iran’s closest allies are Russia and China.
So Putin is stuck in a stalemate with Ukraine, and HAS to figure out a way to win there. Higher oil prices help him out, a lot. At the same time, he’s happy to give Iran good intelligence on American assets.
China holds the whip hand and is giving Iran sexy new weapons to try against US airmen and sailors.
Trump’s 4D chess is looking more like checkers, and the Persians popularized chess.
The FED would have to be absolutely sure the BOJ will hike by 25 bps on the 18th in order for them to hike on the 16th.
If the FED hikes and the BOJ doesn’t – the JPY/USD ex rate will plunge and the BOJ might once again have to intervene by dumping long-term US Treasuries.
Buckle up! If a regional war pops off in the Middle East oil will never be as cheap as what it was before Bibi and Trump did their sneak attack and decapitation strike
The calming waters due to Scotty “Checker” Bessent dancing The Twist will soon sooth the bond market. I believe that. In fact, I just took out 10 cash advances on newly acquired credit cards and paid off my 3% 30-year mortgage. Now I only have to make 10 minimum payments a month. What a strategy!!!
Great analogy. I also think of Bear Stearns financing itself in 2008 with overnight repo loans.
Great post. I’d call it brilliant if you had ended with, “Now, *I* am the House!”
Iran will keep attacking infrastructure and China will buy oil in an attempt to push the price of oil, and therefore longer dated bonds much higher than anyone can imagine.
I don’t think a 10 year yield around 6-7% is out of the question if oil surges toward 200.
I think getting rid of Trump is the primary objective of both Iran and China. They have the tools to force a democratic majority in both the house and senate. It’s much easier than fighting the US on the battlefield.
The markets are still relatively calm because of their staunch beleif in ‘Trump will never let the markets go down.”
But what if Trump is gone?
Unless he dies of natural causes, or suffers a stroke rendering him a veggie or a successful assassination, Trump ain’t goin’ nowhere. And China has fully realized Trump is the doofus who will give them the keys.
The world would rejoice if Trump got politically neutered- they are definitely working towards making his supporters suffer and generally reducing interactions with the USA. The USA is an untrustworthy partner now and everyone knows it
Rate hikes? The won’t and can’t.
The better and more effective way to tackle price inflation would be for Operation Shock-and-Awe (or whatever it is) in the Persian Gulf to JUST GO HOME
It’s Operation: Epstein Who?
Lest we forget.
Keep flushing those ayatoilets.
Was it, do i recall, Abbie Hoffman in the 60’s book Steal This Book who recommend as a revolutionary act of defiant monkeywrenching, everybody flushing their toilets at the same time? Brilliant, suddenly their own plumbing doesn’t work, wow, sure showed The Man. I see that as analogous to Trump’s/MAGA’s acts of defiance toward sound economics and currency, and the world economy.
I’ve read bits of Abbie Hoffman’s book. I don’t think he was quite that silly.
Crashing the economy will cut rates and gas prices
After the election (and the nuke attack on Iran when his majestys madness fully sets in)
Vance better engineer the 25th the instant Trump calls for a nuke.
He should.
He won’t.
Let’s see, who would Vance have to convince to go along with him? Hegseth, Bessent, Rubio, etc.
Nope, the 25fh isn’t gonna save the US.
If the billionaires want to exercise a Trump put – I’m sure Rubio and Bessent and Vance would go along with it.
The billionaires really are our only hope; the situation is that bad…
The only way the 25th amendment gets invoked if a collection of very concerned billionaires comes to the conclusion that Trump has become very bad for business.
Ultimately, Vance is serving those folks and not Trump.
Vance is too fat and soft and confused to do any fancy footwork with the nuclear football.
Of course Trump still wants to hand out the money. The big problem is that his team now needs to work out the granularity. They will probably want to bring Musk back in due to his expertise in this area in Wisconsin. It was silly to make the hand out contingent on Republicans winning the House and Senate in general and then giving money to everyone. Blue states and districts shouldn’t get a dime. Now he needs to figure out how much he gives to each resident of a state that elects a Republican senator and how much to each resident of a congressional district that elects a Republican. Live in a blue district / state? Nothing for you. Just when you think it has gotten as bad as it can get, it gets worse.
No need to plan squat: it’s just King Chaos the Shit Talker flapping his gums.
The only question is when to double down…
and propose $10,000 that you’ll never get.
What’s another 5-6% on the public debt? Small Potatoes!
Looks like a republican debacle for the mid-terms as the impact of taco’s ill-fated policies have come home to roost. All his bs gift plans and etc. will be useless as Americans are feeling the pain from this clown’s actions. Time for CHANGE.
Yeah, can’t wait for change like America Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Acts. Face it, a large enriched swath of the population doesn’t want prices to go down because prices also means homes and stocks. It’s clear the Republicans didn’t improve inflation…but what you missed is the Democrats didn’t either. Until we stop spending massively more than we take in inflation will persist. Bribes come in all forms and the 2 bills I mentioned were full of them.
Putting 10 tankers in the bottom of the Gulf surely ain’t gonna help. (no one seems to care about environmental impacts, just their precious price of gas/diesel)
Ukraine and Russia wiping out refining capacity ain’t helping.
The world looks closer to global conflict than ever as the gentrified monied class is gonna fight deflation kicking and screaming. Thank God we are seeing a hint of bond vigilanteism.
God we need a comeuppance.
You are correct that Biden didn’t help inflation but at least the country got a huge, desperately needed infrastructure improvements in return.
I am not sure that it was the best time but where we are there will never be a good time.
Not all is badly needed infrastructure, some examples: California high speed rail comes to mind as poster material for useless malinvestment as does the rail between Miami and Orlando. In the latter case, about $2.5 billion in bonds were approved for tax exempt status cutting badly needed federal revenue. DOT put up $40 million for crossing upgrades and other safety improvements. For what? Well, long sections of the ROW had the track twinned but other than Brightline, no additional traffic is moving and Brightline is on the verge of Bankruptcy. The additional rail infrastructure now belongs to Florida East coast railway, a wholly owned subsidiary of a Mexican owned company. So, in the name of improved infrastructure we are basically funding a foreign owned company for assets not needed to get a passenger service that could have been provided at a fraction of the cost using buses on the existing Florida Turnpike with a few relatively cheap lane upgrades for the same transit time.
In the Seattle metro area, the light rail project is billions over budget with costs to date running at $250,000 per daily rider. The system is losing money hand over fist at about $1.8 million per day.
If these systems have continuous daily operating losses, why should the country encourage or support building infrastructure that will only add to its future costs with no chance of ever producing a return?
The country is broke; we cannot afford to spend money on projects that do not support themselves. In these examples, California, Florida and Washington State politicians all brought home the bacon for their constituents, but their success getting support for uneconomic projects contributed to the country going broke and staying broke. This malinvestment has to stop.
As a Californian I just shake my head at this stupid high speed rail project. We need housing bad in California, run the damn train from the middle of the two biggest cities in California out to the areas where housing can be built cheaply instead of from nowhere to nowhere…it’s one thing to spend money but another thing altogether to do it the stupidest way possible…
Inflation reduction Act – love it. I don’t hand out Mishelin awards but you deserve one
Maybe we all need a comeuppance.
But that’s certainly true for those who voted for “no new wars” Trump and thought Biden’s advancement of EV tech and manufacturing in the US was stupid.
Now all the non-EV car owners get to pay exponentially increasing gas prices during each fill-up. Purchase/voting choices sometimes end up with a non-willing, but well-deserved comeuppance. But life’s a bitch, right?
Bill – you missed something in your analysis:
“Face it, a large enriched swath of the population doesn’t want prices to go down because prices also means homes and stocks.”
True – but there’s a catch.
If dollar-denominated assets lose value, foreign appetite for the dollars used to purchase them overseas would decline and – in light of our twin deficits – this could collapse the dollar.
As for that “Bond Vigilanteism” – that’s just going to lead to more heavy-handed financial repression like Yield Curve Control.
Don’t bet on a flip of the Senate.
Looks like the Dems have a greater chance of losing NH and MI then they have of winning TX or OH.
And Trump’s approval rating hasn’t dropped all that much since May.
As long as Trump continues to wage his anti-immigrant/anti-DEI/anti-woke/anti-communist wars – the MAGA base will stay loyal to him.
It was extremely clever of Trump to pull out all the stops to delay this reality setting until mere weeks before midterms. Another masterful chess maneuver of the 18th dimension!
Looks like Trump’s plan to bring gas prices down is to bomb tankers. That should work.
I figured he’d be at least smart enough to try to steal the tankers, but I guess he’s afraid of what happens when China runs out of patience with that.
meanwhile: ADEN, Yemen (AP) — The Iran-backed Houthi rebel group on Thursday took over Yemen’s port city of Mokha, an area vital to controlling shipping through the Red Sea, Houthi and Yemeni officials said. https://apnews.com/article/yemen-iran-houthi-rebels-red-sea-mokha-e4e799701b382799a955969c212800ea
The hooties are about to shut down another straight.
I’m pretty sure Hootie and the Blowfish have nothing to do with this
It has been known since the 90s that Hootie is the antichrist.
Truly long term thinking.