Fury Over Lockdowns
Global markets are reeling in the wake of more lockdowns and threats of them.
The Economist (paywall) notes surge of deadly covid cases in Europe is met by popular fury over lockdowns.
The sight of 40,000 unvaccinated Austrians marching through their capital, Vienna, in recent days was troubling twice over. The tightly packed opponents of lockdown measures were at risk of spreading the coronavirus. They also threatened to stir up an already tense political situation. Karl Nehammer, Austria’s interior minister, warned that anti-vaxxers in the Alpine republic are growing more radicalised. He called the demonstration’s mood “incensed” and “aggressive”. Some protesters were extremely provocative, carrying placards likening Alexander Schallenberg, Austria’s new chancellor, to Josef Mengele, the sadistic physician at the Nazi concentration camp in Auschwitz.
The protesters were marching against Austria’s increasingly tough measures against anti-vaxxers. On November 22nd the government imposed a full lockdown once again, to last for at least ten days. That compels Austria’s 9m people to hunker down at home, leaving only for work, essential shopping and exercise. Austria is also the first Western democracy to make covid-19 vaccinations mandatory for all, starting on February 1st 2022. “For a long time—maybe too long—I and others assumed that it must be possible to convince people in Austria to get vaccinated voluntarily,” said Mr Schallenberg when he announced his “very difficult” decision.
Let Our Guard Down
The Washington Post (paywalled) reports ‘We let our guard down’: Frustrated Europe heads into second pandemic winter
Life was finally starting to feel normal. An online flier for an October party in this Belgian beach town cursed the coronavirus and invited people to dance and drink again, to “get your clacker back from the attic” and kick off Carnival season.
Hundreds attended that event and another Carnival party the next night. Most of the town is vaccinated, and people were required to show proof, or a recent negative test, to enter. But it wasn’t enough. Coronavirus cases spiked the week after. Officials worried about pressure on the local hospital. And soon the town found itself under semi-lockdown once more.
As Americans catch up with family and friends this holiday week, with some trepidation about enduring risk, Europe is facing another wave of the virus — and a gloomy and frustrating second pandemic winter.
New Heavily Mutated Covid Variant
CNBC reports Belgium Confirms Case of New, Heavily Mutated Covid Variant.
The emerging variant arrives in Europe amid an already devastating Covid surge linked to the delta strain. Europe saw more than 2.4 million new Covid cases over the week ended Nov. 21, an increase of 11% from the previous seven days, according to the WHO’s most recent epidemiological update.
Europe represented 67% of all Covid cases reported globally during that span, the WHO measured.
Belgium tightened restrictions this week to stop the spread of the virus, requiring people to work from home four days a week through the middle of December. Austria started its fourth lockdown of the pandemic on Monday, with a nationwide vaccine mandate scheduled to take effect on Feb. 1. Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg has said that the lockdown will last for at most 20 days.
New Lockdowns and Restrictions
- Slovakia declared a two-week lockdown on Wednesday. People can leave home for a limited number of reasons, including buying groceries, going to work and to school, and getting vaccinated. And starting next week, all workers will have to show they’ve been vaccinated, recovered from the coronavirus or had a recent negative test.
- Austria, imposed a lockdown that will last at least 10 days and up to 20.
- The Netherlands ordered bars and restaurants to close at 8 p.m.
- Belgium has mandated that all but essential employees work from home four days a week. Belgium also reinstituted an indoor mask mandate this month.
- Merkel pushed for a German lockdown as its death toll passed 100,000.
- The U.K. halted flights from six countries in the region, and European Union member states have collectively agree to pause travel to and from southern Africa.
- Singapore banned flights from southern Africa
- Japan is increasing border controls for travelers from the region.
- Italy requires proof of vaccination or recovery for access to many parts of public life. Vaccination restrictions fcome into effect on December 6 and last until January 15.
Mess in Germany
Eurointelligence comments on Germany’s Federal Virus.
The massive outbreak in Covid-19 hospitalizations and fatalities in Germany raises disturbing questions about who is in charge. Having failed to achieve the right levels of vaccine procurement early on during the pandemic, the German authorities have repeated the same mistake. They did not procure the booster shots they needed. They have not set up a network of vaccination centres to deliver them rapidly.
As of this weekend, only 11.4% of the population has received booster shots. It is very difficult to get an appointment. Only doctor’s surgeries are allowed to deliver them. The network has not been expanded to pharmacies.
So why is this happening again? The answer is that the German healthcare system, well-funded as it is, is not set up for a pandemic, or indeed for public health emergencies in general. This is a publicly-funded, but privately run, healthcare system. The states are in charge of the local healthcare administrations and hospitals. Health insurance is a matter for the federal government, but states supervise the health insurance companies. What can possibly go wrong?
Message From German Stats
In Germany, over 45% of people hospitalized for Covid-19 are fully vaccinated.
That last stat sounds more shocking than it really is. Germany is 68% fully vaccinated. Thus 55% of the hospitalizations cases come from 32% of the population.
Only 11% of Germany received a booster. Given vaccinations wear off, the proper take away is get a booster, not flout the stats.
Vaccine Mandate US
In the US, the Biden administration imposed a vaccine mandate vis OSHA on companies with more than 100 employees.
On November 15, I noted Appeals Court Blocks Biden’s Vaccine Mandate in a Blistering Rebuke
The rebuke was a huge attack on the competence of Biden’s mandate. My position, upfront was the mandate was unconstitutional.
Given multiple attacks on the mandate, jurisdiction, the case moved from the 5th Circuit to the 6th Circuit, where Biden doubled down.
On November 23, I commented Biden Doubles Down on Vaccine Mandate With Another Circuit Court
The justice department files an emergency motion with the 6th circuit court arguing the 5th circuit’s postponement of the OSHA vaccine mandate was unjustified
I strongly suspect the 6th Circuit will reaffirm the previous ruling.
Meanwhile, protests or not, mutations go on and on.
What Covid Lockdowns and Disruptions in Europe Signal to the U.S.
False Promise
“Take two shots and we will reopen society. That turned out to be a false promise.”
It’s been one false promise after another, by Dr. Fauci, by Trump, by Biden, by Merkel, globally everywhere.
Trust is essentially gone and rising protests are proof.
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Ute Bergner commissioned two statisticians to find out whether there is a correlation between excess mortality and the vaccination rate in the federal states.
Ute Bergner; until the end of the FDP parliamentary group in the Thuringian state parliament. Now: Party Citizens for Thuringia:
Bergner:
“The excess mortality increases with the increase in the vaccination rate”.
She hands over paper with sources and methodology and asks to stop the pressure on unvaccinated persons immediately.
the scientists Prof. Dr. Rolf Steyer and Dr. Gregor Kappler also concluded that excess mortality in Germany is closely related to the vaccination rate.
“The correlation is + .31, is astonishingly high and above all in an unexpected direction. It should actually be negative, so that one could say: the higher the vaccination rate, the lower the excess mortality. However, the opposite is the case and this urgently needs clarification. Excess mortality can be found in all 16 German lands. The number of Covid deaths reported by the RKI in the period under review represents only a relatively small part of the excess mortality and, above all, cannot explain the critical issue: the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the excess mortality. “
People are really tired of covid of course and many also
believe that lockdowns do not prevent spread but only slow it down. Another
factor is that front-line workers who make up the bulk of the protesters are
directly hurt by lockdowns more than those who work in offices. In France the
covid passport is widely not checked no matter whether you go to a café,
restaurant and even to a hospital. Governments in some countries faced with
this large-scale non-compliance have resorted to locking everyone out. Austria
shut down everything… except for the ski resorts. Where is the logic in that?
At present levels I would say that enough people are willing to just see it
through feeling little can be done. The new strain, Omicron, if it turns out to
have significantly higher lethality may change that view but that remains to be
seen. Focusing on vaccines as the only way to beat covid has been problematic.
If the new variate has arisen from an immunodepressed individual who had been
vaccinated before then that would put into question the value of non-sterilizing
vaccines in controlling the pandemic even if they prevent most deaths and sever
illness. We would be acting like bats in a cave in China, chronically infected
but still able to fly. That is not the vision we had when the vaccines came
out. Fortunately a lot of research has been ongoing on the treatment side and
as you can understand why, it has been kept out of the public light. Scientists
have learned that journalists are their worst enemies. Even if Omicron is worst
that the delta covid, it will run into a wall of new treatments and perhaps
better vaccines.
proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the
population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has
been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be
more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather
than because of COVID.”
This considerable proportion of the population who are not vaccinated (or not fully vaccinated) plays a major role, as the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the government agency for infectious diseases, told DW: “This also applies to the elderly, who have the highest risk of death.” Among people over 60, more than 3 million people have not yet been vaccinated.
Most of the deaths related to COVID-19 can be traced back to unvaccinated people, RKI statistics indicate. And according to intensive care medics, 90% of the COVID patients in ICUs in Germany are unvaccinated. The RKI says the https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html;jsessionid=7DC3BD40D364789653ED9844E0F11F1F.internet102?nn=13490888#doc13776792bodyText12 for COVID patients in the ICU once they go on a ventilator, whether vaccinated or not.
So in essence, Germany is facing the same mortality rate as last year — but with many more times the number of infections, and for the great majority among the unvaccinated.