Trump can piss and moan all he wants but here are the Six Critical Indicators the State will Consider Before Modifying the Stay-at-Home Order and Other COVID-19 Interventions.
- The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
- The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
- The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
- The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
- The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
- The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.
The Governor said there is not a precise timeline for modifying the stay-at-home order, but that these six indicators will serve as the framework for making that decision.
He also noted that things will look different as California makes modifications. For example, restaurants will have fewer tables and classrooms will be reconfigured.
With that announcement, Governor Newsom quietly put Trump in his place.
Western US Pact
Yesterday, Washington Governor Jay Inslee made an announcement on the Washington, Oregon and California Western States Pact.
Pennsylvania and Six Northeast States Chime In
Also note Pennsylvania One Of Seven States To Work Together On COVID-19 Plans For Reopening
Not Trump’s Call
This is not Trump’s call no matter how loudly he screams it.
For further discussion, please see Trump’s Council to Re-Open America is a Basket of Buffoonery.
And Let’s Compare Trump 2020 Comments to Nixon Comments in 1977
Taped Video Conversation
Trump: “When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s got to be.“
Reporter 1: “Total?”
Trump: “It’s total. the governors know that. You have a couple of bands of Democrat governors but they will agree to it.”
Reporter 2: “You said when someone is president of the United States, their authority is total. That is not true.”
Trump: “You know what we are going to do. We’re going to write up papers on this, it’s not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other.”
Please play the video. Trump had a chance to walk back his Tweets and instead he doubled down with a veiled threat against states that would not comply.
Comparison
- Trump 2020: “When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s got to be.”
- Nixon 1977: “Well, when the president does it, that means that it is not illegal.”
One can agree or disagree with the decisions of state governors. But it is damn idiotic to believe Trump has the legal authority to issue an order requiring Californians to go back to work.
Just imagine the howls if Obama claimed he could rescind a work order made by the Texas governor.
Fox News and Republican hypocrites would be up in arms for weeks.
Meanwhile, I do wonder how long it will take to get contract tracing up and running with everyone complying with the order.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Hm.. I didn’t know that ! Thanks it seems to me like you guys doing great job ! All articles I see today are connected with coronavirus somehow and that’s awful ! I want to read something different.. It’s nice that today you can spend some time reading some interesting stuff and stop thinking about homework (though I did it via https://edubirdie.com/assignment-writing-service ) anyway guys we need to keep on smiling, right ?
Doesn’t the executive branch have any authority over state governments violating the Bill of Rights? Theses lockdown rules are an unambiguous violation of the first amendment right to peaceably to assemble
Thank goodness for governors who pay attention to what’s actually working around the world. I’m so fed up with people who liken this to the flu. The flu runs over 7 months before it kills 35,000 and does not spread nearly as fast and does not wipe out our hospitals and ICUs and slaughter large segments of our citizens in a matter of weeks. No doubt that 7 uncontrolled months of corona would kill many hundreds of thousands. How could anyone be so irresponsible to suggest that we just throw bodies in refrigerated trucks en masse? Older People and Those with health conditions and Those with kids who vape, take heed. You’d better start advocating for yourself.
It’s the flu, this has been here since November so 5 months and flu season 2017-18 killed 80k in the US…name one hospital/icu that was wiped out? 85% of the people that lost their lives were 69 and over hate to break it to you but people die…not going to stop it, your not going to stop the virus either and treatments available work…try and keep up.
I would suggest that anyone still pushing the “just another flu” or “not as bad as the flu” or any other similar foolishness check out the 2 most recent videos on Peak Prosperity that detail recent studies on a possible second means of attack of SARS-COV-2 (much like HIV) as well as recent results of post-mortem examinations of the deceased.
It’s just a flu, less deaths than 2017-18 seasonal flu of 80k and we have a flu shot…actually flu affects both ends of the spectrum the very old and young…this only affects the very old…so now return to your milgram experiment leaders you call your governor and be culled like a little sheep..BTW IHME model all along assumed social distancing and was wrong and updated many times…rate of spread of R0 of 3 mean this bug made it across the US in 109 days, this thing was here in December and by now everyone has been exposed and the lock down was to not overwhelm the HC system, that never materialized. It was never to stop this virus you can’t and you won’t and the FED can’t buy the US economy. Stop being stupid thinking the country can be shut down for the next 2 years until a vaccine is available…protect the old and get back to work you probably already had it and didn’t even know it.
Also back compute the rate of spread with the actual number of cases, real data, and you will see the rate of spread was declining before any fascist authoritarian dictator governor announced any lockdown orders…it’s 8th grade math and you will see you were lied to, to infringe on your civil rights and you were culled like a sheep without so much as a bleat and bowed to your house arrest orders…probably cowering in the corner sewing your face mask, praying satan bill gates will save the day with his poison vaccine that will kill a few more people so he can make billions more…how soon before you’re advocating for an invisible ink “covid negative” tattoo on your forehead or a chip implanted under your skin?
I don’t like lockdowns, vaccines and the rest of it. The virus hasn’t infected but a very small percentage of the US population so far though, and infection fatality rate is 1% or higher…mostly old people sure, except when vast numbers of people are ill at once. The US figures and planning are quite chaotic, I don’t rely on them, just on studies where I know the figures are real, from whichever countries are methodical. They could all be invented? Sure, I don’t think so though.
Anyways, I’m not one who would take your freedom or choices from you, I’m just about as far outside of all of the management of this as you could imagine.
this also shows that Santa Clara County, California is at herd immunity…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/limitation-of-the-president-have-the-states-violated-the-constitution-imposing-a-lockdown/
All the references to “herd immunity” are pure assumption given the evidence that many previously infected individuals show no anti-bodies, other people show widely varying amounts of anti-bodies, and nobody has much idea at all how effective or how long any immunity from any anti-bodies present will last or whether subsequent infections, if they occur, will be any milder or more severe than the initial infection.
So all those talking about “herd immunity” are really just saying (for now at least) let everyone get infected, or even continually re-infected, and those that die, die, and those that don’t die, don’t die.
Those talking up “herd immunity” are displaying so much Darwinian compassion based on so little factual information it brings a tear to the eye …
And some of the PCR tests have been as high as 50% false positives…what is your point herd immunity was the better option instead of pausing the viral spread and chancing the mutation….and explain Sweden genius…get back to work and wear a mask like an idiot if it makes you feel safer
Changes in the structure of the virus are a function of quantity of virus in existence , whether all in one large round of infection or long low scale infection working through the population. No immunity to a change in the virus equally starts that process all over again. Sweden is under criticism, 1000 fatalities with only 0.1% of the population infected, closed CFR of 76% . There might realistically be 2 % infected in Stockholm, for Iceland they found under 1% infected after mass testing. So the idea you presented that most people have caught the virus is basically false. Even if 2% of the whole of Sweden were already infected, to reach 60% herd immunity you are looking at a very heavy toll.
With an R0 factor of 3 and 6 day mutation it would have spread to over 360 million within 109 days and full immunity around 127 days based on recovery rate
this just proves you watch too much TV and place too much trust in your authoritarian fascist governors…keep being a good sheep they love people like you that roll over to their orders.
It’s called damned if you do and damned if you don’t. There are no good solutions to this until there is a treatment. No one knows what to do. How can they?
Stay calm, stay away from people, and keep the critical industries going, keep people sheltered and fed. There isn’t a free market solution to this. We have to share, or civilization will break down.
There is a free market solution to this, just not one which keeps the former reality intact. So the transition to the new one needs at least a minimum of shared compensation to support what is now a failed system. It does not even need that, but we are talking of co-operation to limit at whatever bar personal losses for everyone, so it makes sense. The big question is what a return to normality looks like, is it just a slightly adjusted old normal or is it a permanent and greater shift in methods and understanding. It is a decision that will be made depending on many things – the nature of the virus, ability to reduce its effect, the length of time the economy is stopped, social and political inclination, and much more besides. At most we go back a century or two with isolated rural communities going feudal to protect their own wellbeing, and free market emerges from that reality, while cities live a controlled existence. Who knows, but staying calm is good advice as long as that doesn’t mean just switching off any reaction, or not formulating contingency. Most people are so set in their circumstance that doing more than being careful and following guidelines is probably not going to be possible .
Yeah it’s called HCQ and plasma with antibodies
Zero Hedge headline: “Empire State Manufacturing Crashes Most Ever To -78, Lowest In History”
Singapore and South Korea are now seeing cases of people who got sick and tested positive then tested negative and went home and felt well but now are back in the hospital with a second positive test. The common cold is a coronavirus and it looks like this strain is like the common cold in that sense. This is a total disaster because it means there will be recurrent cases and the virus is mutating the way cold viruses do.
When I’m pessimistic I just see it like a mixture of mustard gas and nerve agent that hides out with and travels around an unsuspecting population. It’s really nasty, attacks various parts of a person. In Spain they see cases decline towards warmer climate, I think this is because of social parameters ( less closed in ) more than durability of the virus, though both will help. Either way studies show it surviving 60 degrees celsius, so it isn’t just zapped by warm weather. ******* virus from hell.
The vaccine is non-sense. We are not going to have one.
The vaccine could do more harm then good. This happen with the vaccine for dengue. It.takes years to develop mosf vaccines that work. On top of this most colds are coronoviruses. A vaccine is a long longshot.
There was a vaccine for SARS, and it succeeded well in early testing, being both safe and effective. Yes, they never bothered with the final stages of testing because the SARS epidemic was over, but the experience with making SARS vaccine gives every reason to believe that a vaccine for SARS-COV2 will be available and effective.
go ahead get your bill gates poison shot, wear a mask like a wussy, that’s your choice
The guidelines are ridiculous and coupled with the stunt today in New York just randomly adding 2700 deaths with no formal review is beyond the pale. Mish, we are effectively in a police state. I can give crap about the election. We have lost our country to media driven madness. The so-called dictatorship hasn’t pulled we have. It never quarantined the whole country. The US is toast.
So have THEY showed up at your door, to silence your strident warnings? No response? OMG! They got him!
You think this funny we have given up everything. I supposed you’re okay with Gate’s idea you have mark to show your vaccination. This government has lied to us repeatedly over the last two decades, but keep voting it makes a difference.
No one’s giving up anything and we have Wall St to thank for. They are NOT buying the pandemic, hence the stock market continues to rally.
No problem. Stock market knows the truth and that’s all there is to it. Don’t listen to the media, don’t listen to experts, forget the unemployment numbers, etc. Stock market knows the truth and the truth is none of those are real.
It’s why we have the second amendment… except most people are “indoctrinated”. They have no idea that there are hundreds of things worse than dying. I’d love to see Gates on the end of a bayonet.
I haven’t given up anything… in fact, I get to work from home now instead of enduring that moronic commute. I get all the food and booze I did before, I get to ride my bike out in the desert like before (on empty trails even… just have to dodge the federales, who don’t try very hard to catch me), I even got a fat raise starting April 1.
A simple life is pretty easy to maintain under most circumstances.
If this weren’t likely to kill my mom, aunts and uncles (already picked off a couple of my wife’s uncles, and she has an aunt on a ventilator that probably isn’t going to make it), coronavirus would probably be the best thing that’s happened to me in the last couple years.
You’re fortunate to be able worked from home. I have several friends who on verge of losing their small business. I also have several friends laid off. In addition, they closed all public spaces. In my county we have had 11 deaths attributed to CV19 out 1.4 million citizens of which 8 lived in nursing homes. One was even in hospice. What we should have done is let everyone go about their lives and asked people with pre-existing conditions to modified their behavior.
If our leadership really gave a shit about saving lives. We would not have had over 2000 cases in Nursing homes in California alone. I’m going to guess a good portions of the attributed deaths in California come out of there. People who are in nursing homes are definitely not walking around in the general population.
If they are not the kind of people who would walk around in the general population, where did they get the virus from? Immaculate conception?
Small businesses, jobs? Who cares about those. If they had put ALL their money in the stock market, then they wouldn’t be so stressed right?
Good question, but even if they did walk around in the general population you would have to ask the same question – how come people in nursing homes are falling to the virus. The same is happening in Europe to a certain degree.
The answer looks something like this.
They have low immunity, catch and succumb to the virus more easily. Transmission amongst care staff is also very high. For every hundred infected, eighty don’t need hospitalisation, so you have an outbreak with just thirty mostly low symptom people in society/care staff and it moves to a nursing home from one of them, and between nursing homes by contacts, and you have all fatalities there first because they are more vulnerable. Over time you will likely have fatalities outside of there.
None of that implies lockdowns are worthwhile, or not. A state which is mostly rural and with precautions might be ok without, cities might benefit from different parameters and so on.
This is where we are approximately here in southern Europe, cases are declining, people want normal, but are being told to just hang in there…another couple of weeks…a month or two…maybe a year for those vulnerable…
So personally I understand the frustration, even if my own circumstance isn’t too much affected.
I don’t even have a fixed opinion on how or when this should be relaxed, because I am faced with a whole load of contradictory arguments that all make some sense.
Thanks for your point. I doubt most of the employees at the nursery homes showed up intentionally sick which means they we were probably asymptomatic. The virus is already in the general population. We are probably approaching herd immunity. Again, the lock down was sold as a way to slow the curve of infection not eliminate the spread. In California, we managed to succeed at developing herd immunity at Nursing homes. Brilliant!!!!
The state and local authoritarians have left behind “flatten the curve so that ICU wards don’t overflow” and quietly moved on to “stop the spread at all costs” which they are much more comfortable with because it means they get to control everything and sacrifice everybody for the foreseeable future.
Why do the state and local authoritarians want to “control everything”? What benefit do they get from sacrificing everybody, and tax revenue, for the foreseeable future for no apparent reason? I’m asking seriously because I recognize there needs to be a balance and wish Newsom had given more specifics on when the tests will arrive, how masks will be distributed, etc., to get things open again. I did not vote for Newsom and don’t agree with his politics, but I think he’s trying to do the right thing in a difficult situation. Balancing lives and the economy is a loser for every politician as the comments here attest.
“Why do the state and local authoritarians want to ‘control everything’?”
Anybody (practically) who goes into politics these days is a control freak. Why? It is the authoritarian’s moral philosophy that all humans are EVIL and all are VICTIMS — and so we must all be controlled/sacrificed AND sacrificed to. (The logical contradiction here is of no concern.) And these authoritarians are just the right heroes to do the controlling and the sacrificing.
This moral sanction of their actions is sufficient “benefit” for them. Do you think any these regressive governors lie awake worrying about the suspension of liberties they have enacted? In their heart of hearts they are getting a GD kick out of this. Yes they are collapsing next year’s tax base, but why should they care? They will still be in control doing the holy work of sacrificing everybody to everybody. Turning the entire state into a giant victim (to beg for federal handouts) is bestowing a moral honor upon the state!
Paraphrasing from Atlas:
I suspect that level of derangement is rare even among politicians. God, I hope so. I think most politicians are self-interested and just angling for the next office. An unnecessarily long lockdown hurts those prospects. At this time the governors’ focus is on saving lives and reducing the spread, but as the lockdown continues that will become more untenable and they will relent. I think they must understand they will lose all control if this goes on too long, and think things will start to reopen within a month. We’ll see.
“I suspect that level of derangement is rare even among politicians.”
Here is a list of character traits for those with NPD (from Mayo Clinic)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Have an exaggerated sense of self-importance
Have a sense of entitlement and require constant, excessive admiration
Expect to be recognized as superior even without achievements that warrant it
Exaggerate achievements and talents
Be preoccupied with fantasies about success, power, brilliance, beauty or the perfect mate
Believe they are superior and can only associate with equally special people
Monopolize conversations and belittle or look down on people they perceive as inferior
Expect special favors and unquestioning compliance with their expectations
Take advantage of others to get what they want
Have an inability or unwillingness to recognize the needs and feelings of others
Be envious of others and believe others envy them
Behave in an arrogant or haughty manner, coming across as conceited, boastful and pretentious
Insist on having the best of everything — for instance, the best car or office
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tell me that doesn’t describe nearly every single politician…
At the very least it describes every apex politician – and they are by far the most dangerous.
The lack of clear data has a lot of people, including myself, uptight.
Countries that have managed wide testing, say Iceland maybe, or the town of Vo in Italy, or even Diamond Princess, give a better picture of background infection. Those studies are not complete in terms of outcomes and demographics but they give an idea. In Spain they tried proffessional estimate by survey to deduce background infection level also. The sum of these were all in the five to ten times confirmed cases ( in Vo, Iceland, Princess it was cases that might otherwise be missed). You cannot apply that figure directly to anywhere because it depends how much testing is taking place. If you look at worldometer it has cases per million, you can multiply that % by ten and it still says we are way below herd immunity, maybe a few percent in some countries as opposed to the 60% needed by some estimates.
The collection of data is still very unreliable from many countries, in Spain they only count cases that both test and show clinical symptoms for example, this gives a “better” figure maybe though they might say more realistic. Same for fatalities, in Spain they have underestimated fatalities by a large degree, probably face saving
So it’s a pretty miserable picture as a whole, it would help if we were presented with a proper study and conclusion of all the data available. I think the fatality ratio in younger healthy people is over two in a thousand cases, plus maybe five in a hundred in that age group suffer some long lasting damage. We don’t even know if people manage to eliminate the virus properly. Figure it is 0.1 micron in size and could easily hide out in the infected person indefinitely, I hope not.
So there is a lot of uncertainty, I am cautious and I really would not know what figure of fatality ratio would be “acceptable” to open up work or other activity. In Spain and other countries that move back to normal slowly we will get some idea from those maybe as well… in time. It’s very frustrating.
“We are probably approaching herd immunity.”
Citation Needed.
Visitors. Staff. Pay attention.
“I haven’t given up anything…”
Exactly.
At this point, nothing for you has changed so you don’t really care what effect anything you’ve demanded has on anyone else. Nor do you care about the potential consequences of anything else that you might deem necessary to keep you safe. As long as you “haven’t given up anything,” then whatever methods are being used or will be used are acceptable.
Fear is the most powerful motivating force for nearly all living creatures. The fear of the unknown; of pain; of death. It can override just about anything else.
“If we don’t do all these things, millions and millions of lives may be in danger.”
This is what they say out loud, on Internet boards, on social media, on televisions. But what they mean is:
“If we don’t do all of these things my life might be in danger.”
People like you use political force to control what everyone else does not because you fear for their lives, but because you fear for your own. And forcing others to accept the consequences of your fear means you don’t have to deal with it alone. If everyone is in the same boat, then we all suffer equally. Although as you just so astutely pointed out, not all animals are equal – some are more equal than others.
You will argue that lockdowns avoid the unintended consequence of spreading the virus to some people and endangering their lives. I would argue that lockdowns have the unintended consequence of destroying some people’s lives. Both of us are correct. And for me, the solution is to come down on the side that has the least amount of force and control involved.
There are many of us out here who are willing to take chances with things – including the virus. We will accept the risk because to do otherwise means we can’t make a living and put food on our tables. We have no desire to control you or anyone else. If you are afraid, you are free to stay in your house and work from home and do whatever else makes you feel safe. You can board up your doors, line your windows with plastic and duct tape, refuse to go out and shop, or wear a mask or hazmat suit when you do.
Do whatever makes YOU feel safe. Just leave the rest of us alone.
I agree to that. The trouble is that as a whole people are pretty incompetent , especially when confronted with a new paradigm like the one we have now. Our whole system is based on leverage and obligation, anyone skips payment or presence without permission and they are out, ruined. Combine the two and you will have a guaranteed chaos, because we aren’t in the 30’s where most people have an option to stay at home and self isolate frugally for a month or more. That is not to say stopping others from continuing activity is right, the problem is if you let some a free pass the others are going to be paying with their lives just to support them, that causes resentment. Lockdown… don’t turn up to work when there is no lockdown order? Well you’re fired. Everyone has to turn up, well you are on your way to Wuhan, because this virus is very transmissible.
Sure a lot of people would prefer to give it their best shot all the same, and that others make way for them to do that, but it will be very discoordinated because the workings of the economy and finance and society are so complex.
You want schooling for example, it’s obligatory, but you don’t want infection spreading to most households via that, making you responsible because of the obligation. How ?
So, and ironically this seems to go slightly against the idea of allowing people freedom of choice, the idea of martial law that I think you suggested once is possibly an answer. People don’t understand the military well, I understand why it is clichéd and people’s fears, but I actually trust the military as far less controlling, far more disciplined and pragmatic, than any politician or bureaucracy. The idea of martial law is to oversee discipline in this new paradigm while people are allowed to return closer to normal activity, basically to help people in that, at most forcefully remind them that these are the rules for now. The tech equivalent in the hands of bureaucracy would be obligatory geolocation and tracking, fines and police persecution. So with that a half normal is returned , overseen to avoid excesses, where priorities are assigned and compensation allowed for. As much as anyone I dislike a police state, do not agree with government control of economy, but here you cannot have no restrictions/subsidy , and you cannot have it just shut down indefinitely. Maybe someone will offer a better solution.
I hope everything can restart without any of these measures.
“The trouble is that as a whole people are pretty incompetent…”
Unfortunately, we created this problem. We built an entire society around providing cushions, safety nets, and bailouts so those “incompetent” people don’t have to deal with the consequences of their poor decisions. Therefore, they continue to make them. Why wouldn’t they?
Along comes a situation like this – where we can’t just create a safety net – and now we no longer want them making those dumbass decisions because we may feel the consequences. As a result, we put them – and everyone else – under house arrest. Because we are afraid for our own lives – as I said.
We created these problems by creating a culture that controls outcomes to backstop failure. Now, rather than realize that and back off, our solution is to double down on that control. And as we do, we will once again swear to god that this time it’s different and when the dust clears, we will re-evaluate everything and the controls will be lifted – even though history shows us they will not. If anything, they will be expanded.
Human beings – even those of us who don’t care much for other people in general – are herd animals. You can’t simply push them into their homes and demand they give up their way of life and means of providing for themselves and their families for weeks or months on end. Most will do it willingly for a while, but eventually, they will begin to push the envelope. At that point, a choice will have to be made at the government level to either push back or let it happen. I believe that once this tipping point is reached, that decision will be the defining moment of this whole affair. If they push back – and it comes down to anything resembling martial law, we may never recover as a country.
I was a “bend the curve” guy. I believed it was possible and even supported the move. But in the past three weeks, my opinion has changed. I now honestly believe that if a majority of people can’t get out of their houses and back to work – soon – the results will be worse than anything the virus could do or has done.
You ought to do a little more research into just what medical researchers are discovering this SARS-COV-2 virus seems to be capable of in terms of its dual paths of infecting cells as well as the consequences it causes way beyond respiratory distress.
Why?
I didn’t say anything about what the virus does or does not do.
Perhaps you should try reading comprehension.
Just so its clear I meant people as a whole are pretty incompetent in the sense that if you put them together ad hoc the results are all over the place, compete also being to strive together to succeed, not necessarily against one another. My own experience is that, for one reason or another a group of people often fall short of their objectives, it’s human nature to set the sites high or simply later readjust them out of commodity or reality. Here we have a virus that threatens the whole group if people within it start making mistakes, mistakes which are very easy to make as far as transmission of the virus is concerned.
I think a more moderate form of restrictions is possible, it depends if society will act responsibly. My view is that important labour should be allowed with certain safeguards. In reality you open restaurants or malls now and likely there would be few customers anyway by choice. Portugal is much by civil responsibility, Spain is more police state and a majority are calling for more of that. We will see with Spain what happens as workers are allowed to return now, but under guidelines of distancing etc.
I don’t think just lifting all restrictions is going to be an answer, I hope it does not come to the kind of confrontation you describe for the US. I don’t have good answers to the problem, it will likely be a long saga.
I saw today where a bunch of people took their anger to the streets in Michigan’s capitol.
I have no idea how many people but I know that some of them were carrying weapons.
What we did – and what we are doing – has had and will continue to have unintended consequences.
At this point, I am of the opinion that no matter what we do it’s going to suck. And the longer it lasts, the worse it will suck.
I honestly hope I am wrong and it’s orderly and dignified and everyone gets along and we all go back to work over the next couple of months.
It’s a sort of trap the US has got itself into. In Spain a recent article pointed out the idiosyncrasy of Spain’s basically abysmal handling of the epidemic at national level, and the reward the government got was to be asked to exercise even greater authority. That works in Spanish culture maybe, but would not in the US, and with around 400 million people.
There are examples of ways out of this, all of them had a mixture of early and coordinated action, plus sympathy and responsibility from society. These articles are in Spanish, but you know how to translate them if you feel like reading their story.
Portugal acted early, went for lockdown measures but without heavy enforcement because the population understood and complied. So far it has among the lowest rates of fatality and infection according to the article
Iceland did not have to lockdown, they tested a lot, everyone was civil about it, only where there were large gatherings closed
The good thing about Iceland is they tested (or are going about) testing the whole island. So you have a figure for asymptomatic cases ( only when tested though), background infection rate, realistic infection fatality ratio ( around 1%). So far only older people succumbed, but we know from other countries a small proportion of younger people do also. All cases are not closed, but the figures are reassuring compared to elsewhere. Not sure if I can post three links in one comment so I’ll carry on in another.
So these are the figures for Iceland
In reality, 1% fatality ratio across the US is a lot if people, at 60% herd immunity you are talking maybe two million people. If society panics because of mass illness at once even worse, etc. So they have to flatten the curve, Iceland and Portugal set examples of ways how to, Taiwan and Korea also, without causing too much disruption. In the US it is probably better this happens at local level as well. Handle each state as a country for example, let them try their methods. A federal reply means federal blame, means all against all, means confrontation or discontent gets united across the country. Local replies mean local responsibility, means those closest must act properly because they are more easily accountable. It is all I can think for reply. The federal government should just alot a central fund proportional to state that is only useable for this virus, and a fund for individuals with max per person to help mitigate personal costs in this circumstance. That is all I can think of unless the federal government really is up to coordinating a reply at national scale.
Lol. I posted this week that people are dying at home in New York and that is why hospitalizations are leveling off or down. Now the coroner gets more bodies everyday and you think it’s what exactly ? A lie ? Fake news ?
Get out your bu11sh!t detectors for this one, boys and girls
Have a feeling that growing economic desperation within society will trump everything. One question: who has the power to bailout? Answer: it isn’t the states. Think Trump cares about CA, OR, WA, NY, NJ? Think again.
You are the one who needs to think again. If Republican voters don’t give a darn about the constitution and throw blue states under the bus, might as well break up the Union then.
Think Trump cares to be the president that breaks up the country?
Think again.
And what do you think of a President who seeks personal vengeance against millions of citizens, including those who voted for him, because he doesn’t like the governor of the state? This is life and death so are you saying that Trump will intentionally inflict death upon even Republican voters from blue states just to get even? Do you think it’s ok for him to intentionally withhold life saving medical resources to suit his ego?
Context is important. OP mentioned that Trump cares only about red states and will subjugate blue states only. Trump in general just doesn’t care full stop, but even he will not want a civil war on his watch.
Bingo. Only the Fed can print dollars, so Trump has them by the purse strings, since they cannot bail themselves out.
The fed can print toilet paper, but the states produce things of value. Let’s see who can hold out the longest.
If we had a leader who listened to experts, we would have had a ramped up testing program for the virus and virus antibodies already underway.
Right now, our testing capacity remains stuck at about 140,000 per day. That’s not enough to identify current cases. That delay is a function of alternating between no-one in charge, I’m in charge, I have no responsibility, I’m ending financial responsibility, the states have to do it…
He’s crippling his push to re-open by this stupidity.
Testing is sporadic at best and never completely accurate. Second, we closed they system down not to eliminate the disease just to slow curve. Our hospitals were never overwhelmed in CA. As for a vaccine, good luck. It’s not going to happened.
As for experts, the said 1.3 million deaths if don’t socially distant. If we, we lose 120K deaths. They were way off. This is a farce.
“This is not Trump’s call no matter how loudly he screams it.”
Yes, we know Trump doesn’t have that authority, thank goodness.
Nor does a president have the authority to shut down the entire country which would be a far worse example of tyranny.
Trump dislikes immigrants, but the irony is he will fail the citizenship test if given one.
Did anyone check his birth certificate just to be doubly sure.
Authority? in the real world asset forfeiture by the police is a real thing. Sound like a 4th amendment problem? They don’t give ash!t.
Very confrontational between President Trump and press today at the task force presentation. I know he wants to defend his actions to the American people without the press spinning what he says, but the Q&A segment has been so acrimonious lately I do not see how it is helping anything. The first segment of the presentation was like an awards ceremony and the Q&A segment was like a boxing match.
I cannot watch much more of this. Something needs to change.
He’s addicted to the attention. He can’t do rallies now, and the bottomless pit where his self esteem should be is howling empty. He would probably stroke out if he couldn’t get on tv for a week.
How can you watch a femtosecond of it?
How have people not figured out to not pay attention to what any politician says but watch their actions? All talk out both sides of their mouth.
I’m beginning to think trumpty doesn’t lie so much as he reports back from some imaginary world. That last press conference… whew. The rubber has left the road.
Seriously though, at the end of the day, this whole thing could have been prevented if:
I still see it as a coordination problem. If there’s a way to coordinate when people go to stores in a responsible manner, there’s no reason why stores need to close.
But because the people of this country do not understand what freedom means, all of us can’t have nice things, which is especially important in a pandemic.
Freedom and population density are inversely proportional. Breeders are the enemies of freedom.
The US is less dense than many other countries.
There won’t be anything left to reopen in California if they wait for all those conditions to be met. And, the restaurants that reopen with half the capacity won’t be viable anyway.
It’ll come back, but slowly, and the rent will have to drop. This will lay waste to the finance system that has been scraping every nibble of profit off those bones.
Californians will have plenty of time and idle capital to open other stuff, then…..
Like they did in the aftermath of buggywhipmakers no longer being viable.
Economies serve to supply current demand. Not demand which existed in some bygone era.
What a ridiculous statement. We are effectively in the Soviet Union. Mask are bullshit and a vaccine is not going to happen. No matter what the Gates Foundation says. We are in deep shit. The initial reason for this was to slow the curve the rate of infection to avoid overrunning hospitals which never happened in except maybe New York. We moved into avoiding the infection phrase which is pure insanity.
What is ridiculous? Economies don’t serve to supply current demand? Californians won’t open other businesses? I think you’re confusing Stuki’s statement with your view of Newsom’s criteria.
The president can call on the National Emergencies Act to exercise authority since the Federal has had to provide financial support for the states. Some folks here need to move on from your obsession with Trump. He is president which is far more powerful than being a governor, like it or not.
Forgive my ignorance, but what part of the National Emergencies Act or Public Health Service Act grants the Federal Government authority to compel states to lift internal quarantines or quarantines imposed to prevent spread of disease coming from other states? I think the Federal Government could impose restrictions to prevent the spread of disease between states if they were unwilling to do that themselves, but I do not think it can force states to lift restrictions that they separately imposed.
You mentioned federal financial support being a factor. That is always a factor and has eroded state independence from the Federal Government over the years with respect to everything, hasn’t it? Theoretically, the Federal Government could blackmail any state at any time over anything if it has enough financial leverage. In this case though, what would happen politically if the Federal Government withheld financial aid to a state because that state insisted it could not lift a quarantine due to safety concerns? Withholding federal aid in that case does not seem like a plausible option.
Regardless of the administration in the White House, I do not see how the Federal Government can compel states to lift quarantines earlier than they want to. If the states drag quarantines on longer than the White House would like them to and that causes extra economic pain, it is a tricky situation for President Trump.
What am I missing?
Congress passed the NEA. Its a tool. Will he use it, I do not know. Just pointing out it exists. Congress can also eliminate it.
So the constitution is your toilet paper?
Unfortunately, at this point I feel like all of the wealthy and all of the politicians treat the constitution like toilet paper.
“3. The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;”
That’s the only legitimate reason to suspend liberties — because generally individuals have the right to do what they want but they do not have the right to collapse the health care system for everybody else. (So it still comes down to preservation of liberties, IMO.)
#1 partially plays into this, as gov needs a baseline of data and knowledge to project surges. But this is far less of a factor now, as nowhere on the left coast is projected to turn into NYC, let alone Lombardy.
For thousands of years maintaining public health has been considered to be a valid role of government. It’s always been that way. This is a more extreme health crisis than most, so there are more extreme limits. Yes, you can’t use your personal liberty to infect others and break down the public health system, any more than you can poop in the street, or fill your front lawn with old tires to collect rain, or burn toxic waste in your back yard. All those infringe on your liberty to do anything you want, but all of them are for valid reasons.
Here’s a related story:
Now It’s Obvious: The Political Class and the Media Are Spinning Tales
Phillip W. Magness
– April 14, 2020
At the outset of the coronavirus lockdowns my colleague Pete Earle penned a prescient article about the propensity of political actors to rewrite the history of the unfolding crisis in real time. Assisted by a thoroughly politicized national press corps, politicians across the spectrum were busy trying to retrofit blame for the unfolding pandemic to their own political talking points and weaponize it to justify aggressive government action.
Sadly but not unexpectedly, this real-time revisionism has only accelerated in the last month. We’ve now reached a point where reporters, public officeholders, and federal bureaucrats are now revising their own words and actions from only a few weeks prior – all while hoping that nobody will notice.
….
“I take no responsibility”
That is so open-ended, we may never open again. Not a single metric or data point in the release, just a bunch of political speak for saying “we don’t have a clue” or “and no plan either”.
If Biden loses to Trump, Newsom WILL run for president in 2024.
Oregon Governor Kate Brown pulled the exact same thing a few hours ago: no timeline, no specifics, just promises to develop a “framework” in the coming weeks.
They don’t have good data, and until they do, this is the best they can do.
Science doesn’t care about your feelings, or how people vote.
What were you expecting? For a situation that has no particularly recent occurrence, I think they covered a number of bases that everyone is talking in general terms about but no one has fully connected together.
Trump gets triggered easily when anyone challenges his view of his authority. He then puffs out his chest and spews the first thing that pops into his head.
It’s hard to believe that some 42% still support him but then the alternative seems to be Joe Biden for the job next year. Biden should provide plenty of jokes with what comes out of his mouth. Sad!
1 choice is tyranny but 2 choices is total freedom…. usa logic
Mish now favors the fascist Newsom over Trump. I am ashamed Mish. How far you have fallen over the past couple of years.