Due to actions by Trump, Conservatives are no longer runaway favorites.
Snap Election April 28
The Wall Street Journal reports Canada’s Mark Carney Calls a Snap Election
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap election on Sunday, sending Canadians to the polls for a vote on April 28 that is set to revolve largely around the question of how Canada will deal with President Trump.
Carney, a 60-year-old former central banker, called the election less than two weeks after he was sworn in to succeed Justin Trudeau. Carney begins a race against the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, with some polls showing the Liberals leading public opinion for the first time in years.
The governing Liberals seemed headed for an electoral drubbing only a few weeks ago, but are now in a position to possibly win the election because of voters’ concerns about the harm Trump could do to the Canadian economy with his threats to levy punitive tariffs on one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners. Trump also has proposed using economic force to annex Canada, a threat that has animated a patriotic backlash and galvanized public opinion against the U.S.
“We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty,” said Carney in remarks delivered in Ottawa Sunday.
The dynamic has helped shift the focus away from a Canadian economy that was already struggling before Trump’s tariff threats and an affordability crisis that had sent the Liberal Party’s approval ratings to historic lows.
“This election is definitely about one thing: Trump and the damage he’s going to do to the economy,” said Gerald Butts, an informal Carney adviser and vice chairman of the Eurasia Group consulting firm.
The election will be a race between two very different candidates. Carney is a former Goldman Sachs investment banker who also led the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Poilievre, 45, and a two-decade veteran of Parliament, is a populist who rode a wave of discontent over Trudeau’s Covid, environmental and immigration policies.
Poilievre said he shares Canadians’ concerns about Trump’s tariffs. “We must put Canada first and bring about a change,” the Conservative leader said as he kicked off his campaign on Sunday. He then moved quickly to a critique of the Liberal government.
“The question is whether Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term,” he said, blaming the Liberals for feeble growth, elevated housing costs, damaging a once-admired immigration system, and thwarting projects in the country’s resource sector. The Liberals’ “radical, post-national globalist ideology has weakened our nation,” he said.
Carney has tried to tar Poilievre as “a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump.”
Scott Reid, a onetime strategist to former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin, said Carney has so far successfully distanced himself from Trudeau, and that gives the Liberals a chance to complete a historical political comeback.
The shift in the Liberal Party’s fortunes since the beginning of the year has been dramatic. Over two months ago, projections from polling aggregator 338Canada called for a big Conservative victory with the Liberals in third place. Today, it has the Liberals winning a fourth straight election with a majority mandate.
“I have never seen something like this,” said Philippe J. Fournier, the head of 338Canada. “It doesn’t mean that it will last. But could it last for a five-week campaign? Yeah, it could.”
Last week, Trump weighed in, hinting he would prefer to work with a Trudeau-less Liberal government. “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care,” Trump told Fox News. Trump said Poilievre “is stupidly, no friend of mine…I don’t know him, but he said negative things.”
Poilievre immediately tried to turn Trump’s remarks into an advantage. “It’s clear President Trump wants the Liberals in power because they will keep this country weak,” he said. “What Canadians need is a leader who is tough and firm and stands by his convictions.”
Poilievre, who used populist rhetoric similar to Trump’s in building his polling lead last year, has tried to capture some of the anti-U.S. energy in recent speeches. He unveiled a new “Canada First” slogan and warned Trump in a speech that, “I’m a tough guy to deal with.”
Collapse of the Conservatives
Newsweek comments on Mark Carney’s Chances of Beating Pierre Poilievre in Canada Election
With the general election just over a month away, polls show the race essentially neck-and-neck. As of Sunday, polling aggregator 338Canada had the Liberal Party at 39 percent, the Conservative Party at 37 percent, and New Democratic Party at 11 percent. The Liberal Party’s lead falls within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The same aggregator shows that when Trudeau announced his resignation on January 5, his party was polling around 20 percent compared to the Conservative party more than doubling support, at 45 percent. That was also prior to Trump taking office on January 20. The polls have now nearly flipped.
A CityNews-Léger poll of 1,504 Canadians conducted from March 10 to 13 found the Liberal Party at 40 percent to the Conservative Party’s 37 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.49 percentage points.
Carney also outpaces Poilievre in overall approval. He is the only Canadian leader in the poll with a higher approval than disapproval rate, earning a 48 percent approval rating and 30 percent disapproval. Poilievre holds a 35 percent approval rating, with 52 percent disapproval.
Trump single-handily turned the Canadian election from a debate over Liberal incompetence to a debate over Trump.
Trifecta Success?
- If Trump wants top help elect a liberal leader in Canada, he succeeded.
- If he wanted to sour friendship between two great countries, he did that too.
- And finally, if he wanted to hurt the economies of both Canada and the United States, then Trump scored a boxed trifecta.
Related Posts
January 31, 2025: Seven Charts Show Tariffs Would Harm the US Auto Industry
The CATO institute does a great job explaining why tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be a very bad idea.
March 11, 2025: Hello Automakers, Trump Hikes Canada Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent
If Trump wants to clobber automakers, he sure knows how to do it.
March 9, 2025: Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
Trump is complaining about Canada’s cheese tariffs. In 2018, he was bragging about cheese.
That last link is a real hoot. Please give it a look if you missed it.
Only TDS fools think Canada has 250% tariffs
And who was the jackass who negotiated the USMCA deal and bragged about it?
Educate yourself here:
Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
https://mishtalk.com/economics/cheese-was-a-key-achievement-of-trumps-usmca-trade-agreement/
Would have been a lot better for you if Hillary would have been hanging out in Wisconsin with a cheese hat on her head at The Brat Stop and Wallys House Of Embers the last week of October 2016 instead of loading up her war chest in NY and CA.
What does this have to do with Canadian domestic issues like housing affordability, poverty, crime, healthcare, etc? You do know that Canada has concerns other than Trump…. right?
Little shocked by this TDS thing from you, Mike. You, also stated Canada has been a good neighbor and friend. How is it that Americans that feel that way, have TDS? I truly dislike this Trump huckster. But, well before he showed up, I was grateful for a friendly neighbor. Why make new border enemies? Quite literally, the planet is on fire and that’s why the US is concerned about their borders. I expect climate change is the underlying fear. Denied by right wing propagandists sites and yet a very real problem. Nonetheless, the extremely wealthy folks know darn well, that climate change causes mass migration. That’s the underlying big story here. That, and the multi billionaires have no intention of paying down this nations debt. They think cutting government jobs will do it. Thing is, that’s just a joke. It’s a bate and switch. They want a country for billionaires that will protect their wealth and borders that will protect them from the climate change, they made. Good deal for them. If we think it’s going to be good here, when that becomes realty…they will be mistaken.
Canada under the Liberals has over a decade taken the Canadian dollar from equal to the Yankee buck down now to .68 cents. Canada has also collapsed down to 25th place for economic growth. Healthcare is in constant freefall. So after all those positive changes most voters are still going to re-elect a Liberal Government? Americans must realize there is no Right Party in Canada. To get elected to govern in Canada it depends on your Parties degree of being Left.
From doing some digging there appears 3 main issues at hand:
#1 US (rapidly becoming Canada’s former ally) existential threat to Canada’s sovereignty – similar to Russia v Ukraine
#2 Arbitrary and inhumane detention of Canadian travellers to US – similar to travel to China
#3 Trade tariffs that contravene recent negotiated treaties – can no longer negotiate future deals on good faith
ALL of our Canadian Friends, without exception, are WOKE LEFT WING LIBERALS.
Sounds like you need some new Canadian friends. Not everyone in Canada is that way. Try meeting people outside the greater Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver areas.
The sad thing is Canadians probably think all Americans are ill informed ignoramuses who wear MAGA hats and couldn’t point to Canada on a map.
sounds like you don’t have many friends
Not sure where you’re coming from here. All nations need friendly border countries. Decades of friendship through every political party has not really been a problem for Americans.
I think I’m good that
Interested in the comments on here about the imminent collapse of Canada. When you look at most society measures, Canada is in a much better state than the US. Inequality is a key measure of the stability of society. Look at Wiki where you will find the US down at 138 (next to Morocco) and Canada up at 28 (next to Finland, the happiest country in the world). Electing Billionaires to fix things isn’t a great plan. Removing money from politics and de-politicising the judiciary seem much more important for the US rather than beating up neighbours.
I wonder how recent that ranking is. Canada is not a happy place anymore. I personally am unemployable as an older male (20yr software engineer). My wife with a med degree working for Gov in healthcare went from earning 5x minimum wage to 3x minimum wage over the last 10 years of the liberals. My son (who lives with me at 25) has $100K in the bank but can’t get a house because dependable jobs are scarce and can’t qualify for a mortgage. My daughter and her boyfriend are VERY underemployed (both pro animators) and only survive because they scored an extremely cheap co-op at 1/3rd the going rent in the area. So things aren’t good and the general populace is getting very angry. Add to that we have been called racists, genocidal, homophobic, misogynistic colonizer that don’t live in a valid country for the last 10 years and the mood is right for breaking up.
As for the macro picture, the west was holding out hope of a conservative government to cancel a lot of the laws that have strangled their ability to develop their oil and natural gas. Also our environmental laws/taxes are killing businesses and stifling home construction (thus the housing crisis). I fully believe that if these laws are not killed with the next gov, Alberta will pull the separate card. This will take Saskatchewan and Manitoba with them as they are politically the same. BC is woke and will hem and haw until reluctantly following because they are screwed if they stay.
What then remains of Canada is a country that is both an energy and food importer. Ontario’s banking sector will leave the sinking ship because our political stability premium is now gone. Quebec being the only province that is self-sustainable will probably make an attempt at going it alone and might actually succeed, albeit with a much lower standard of living. The East coast will then join the US out of desperation to stay alive. The Northern Territories may become an independent native nation but will be open to the highest bidder for any an all it’s resources. If they thought British colonialism was bad, wait for what happens next.
Voila, Canada will now be the US’s 51 – 55 states (BC, Alberta, Manikatchewan, Ontario, New Found Scotwick) with two remaining basket case countries, Quebec and North Nowhere.
All from some measly 25% tariffs. I’m not a Trump fan, but that is one hell of a play.
Welcome to billionaire controlled countries. You folks can not cope with people being pissed at the billionaires. Seriously, is this just you folks thinking they will be your friends or give you the best job if they like you?
Things turn around in the right direction for for canada and the usa and any other country once they stop believing in and electing politicians who perpetuate this bad wealth effect policy which is having the opposite effect. It isnt bad to not have a house at 25. There are many poor elderly around the world that never owned a house. If he cant find a job in your area, he can rent a room where theyre hiring and use his savings to earn interest on short term gic debt. Im seeing the 120 day bill paying 3.9% . Thats around $300 cad to help pay rent where he can find a job.
Trump prefers Carney. He managed Brexit and the British pound deflation. The whole thing about invading Canada is very suspicious. It ousted Trudeau.
Baking bread in an electric kettle
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-nuclear-non-solution
The first major problem with nuclear is that the type of energy produced is just not right. I know it hurts, but from a technical perspective the current crop of nuclear reactors are nothing but giant water boilers.
Heavy, cumbersome, intricately complex, expensive kettles, providing steam for a steam engine, not a new magical form of energy. This statement is equally true for traditional pressurized water, molten salt, modular and even fusion reactors. Their primary form of energy output is heat, which is then turned into steam spinning turbines and generating electricity. That’s all to it.
Nuclear reactors provide low to medium heat only, which is OK if you want to use it to generate electricity or to make pulp for paper production, but not nearly enough to maintain a complex technologically advanced civilization. None of the current or proposed reactors (1) can produce the high heat needed to turn iron ore into steel, sand into molten glass, or limestone, clay and fly ash into cement. Without these materials, on the other hand, it would be impossible to build modern roads, bridges, dams, tunnels, high rise buildings and yes, new nuclear reactors.
Believing that nuclear can somehow magically replace coal and natural gas in these essential high heat applications anytime soon is like thinking we could bake bread in an electric kettle. (I mean you can try, but then don’t tell me that you failed.)
RCMP Secret Memo Warns Canada Is on the Brink of Economic and Social Collapse.
A secret RCMP report, recently obtained through an access to information request, paints a dire picture of Canada’s future—one where economic collapse, declining living standards, and widespread civil unrest are no longer a hypothetical. The report, titled “Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends” for Canada, was never meant for public eyes, containing “special operational information” distributed only among top government decision-makers and law enforcement.
Its conclusion? Canadians are running out of money, running out of hope, and—once they realize the depth of their economic despair—could revolt.
“The coming period of recession will … accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations,” the report states. It warns that “many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live.” In other words, an entire generation has been priced out of the dream their parents took for granted.
This isn’t alarmism—it’s backed by hard data. Canada’s economy is failing, and the government knows it.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/secret-rcmp-report-warns-canadians-may-revolt-once-they-realize-how-broke-they-are
Its not just the economy, its the social fabric, the anti-White policies, the immigration, the taxation at 50%+, the state manipulation of everything, the endless state propaganda, the social coercion.
Canada is far worse than the politeness of normie Canada would suggest.
Picture a country with the taxation of California, the economy of Maine (and the state LIKES that), the social coercion of a Democrat convention. and the condescension and corruption of D.C. — oh yeah and the affordability of NYC/San Francisco — without the salaries (which are taxed away anyway).
That’s why Trump oust Trudeau. Invading Canada is a game theory. Pierre replacing Pierre isn’t platabale.
I certainly hope it is not as bad as that.
Don’t worry … the UK is FAR worse… so they will collapse and take us all down long before Canada implodes (Lehman on steroids)
I am not in the UK.
You don’t think the UK collapsing will collapse the world?
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/financial-system-supply-chain-cross
Not sure what kind of revolt would happen.
Canadians by nature are very polite and inclined to ‘listen to authority’ rather than ‘question authority’. That’s why they didn’t join the American revolution and why they locked down for an extra year during Covid because the government told them to (and why they persecuted the truckers for daring to stand up against that lock down). They also are not armed like Americans either.
All the things you talk about are happening. My 2 nieces still live at home with my sister and her husband because they can’t afford to move out and both of them are in their mid 20s (at least one of them has their boyfriend there too in an effort to save money). This is not uncommon when I talk to my friends about their kids etc etc.
Most of this was due to unchecked immigration during Trudeau’s time in power. His 10 years have been a lost decade for Canada. It zigged (unchecked immigration, limited oil/gas drilling/pipelines, high carbon taxes etc) when the USA zagged and its becoming just how much now that Trump is exposing it.
Canada’s media is as doctrinairely propagandistic for bigger government as US regime/corporate media. They actually receive money directly from govt. as long as they stay on the reservation. Their fringe media (who tell the truth) is much smaller than US fringe media. So Canada was never very likely to vote for smaller government.
Then we have https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-mother-of-all-faked-news
Hahahahaha… that is not a comedy skit … it’s real
It’s shocking and frustrating how Trump singlehandedly took what probably would have been a Majority Conservative win and now possibly turned it into another Liberal win, what a ……..! Trump wants oil, Trump wants resources and he could have got that and more from a Conservative win, instead if Carney wins he will get a Net Zero loving Globalist. I wish Trump knew when to just shut it sometimes!
This election has gone from being a protest against the train wreck where the Liberal Party has taken Canada over the last 10 years to now becoming an anti Trump election and of course the MSM will paint the Conservatives as Pro Trump.
Pray for Canada. Pray that they do not fall for the WEF Carney Liberals.
Of course, then we have to fight the ‘Conservatives’ who are a little better–but still really quite BAD. That’s the ‘choice’.
Because the country is on the precipice of civil unrest. Even the RCMP get it. If fact they say as much.
Everybody smiles though when you ask them how everything is. Plastic smiles.
Yeah, sure thing! I’m guessing you are equally concerned about our civil unrest here in the US? Nothing to see here. No worries. Good god, you fascists are clueless. The American Conservative Party is a real interesting combo of communist/fascist. Nothing this country needs. Democracy is what we need. Not authoritarianism. But you all seem to love dictators. So, the American experiment continues.
Hmm… I don’t know…
– Due to actions by Trump, Conservatives are no longer runaway favorites. > Seriously? In the Canadian MSM of course. This Country couldn’t wait to toss the Man Child, and now they’re going to Rush for another one, but louder and prouder about it… Seriously?
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap election on Sunday, > And if he loses? What then? If he wins? How, but we will know why… Then what? Canadians start moving here while they still can perhaps?
>> Until very recently, and right before this oddity, it appeared to me, that the voters’ we more concerned about the harm that a “Non-Trump Election” could do to the Canadian economy and There Country as a whole…
– Canada is facing the most significant crisis of there lifetimes, because of President Trump and his threats to their sovereignty, Carney remarked in some fashion. > Again, Seriously? You simply can’t make this crap up. Maybe some warm milk and cookies? A rub on the back by mommy perhaps? An apology by Trump for being too Manly could do it, but it ain’t happening…
>> This election is definitely about one thing: “It Ain’t Trump IMO!” It’s the lack of any Energy, Economy, Money, Military, Etc. And it’s scaring the crap out of the Citizens IMO!
– The election will be a race between two very different candidates:
1. Carney is a former Goldman Sachs investment banker who also led the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
2. Poilievre, 45, and a two-decade veteran of Parliament, is a populist who rode a wave of discontent over Trudeau’s Covid, environmental and immigration policies.
> The question is whether Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term. It’s that simple IMO.
– With the general election just over a month away, polls show the race essentially neck-and-neck. > So in regards of everything said and done up until now, “Absolutely Nothing Has Changed” according to your own words…
>> I guess if nothing else, we may be an inch closer to Greenland or Canada, or ???
Since Prime Minister Carney was named leader of the Liberal Party, I like many, Canadians, changed from supporting the Conservatives, which I have been a long time supporter of, to supporting the Liberals. Mr. Carney gave up a comfortable position as Chairman of Brookfield at an income of reportedly $8 million per year, to come to the aid of his country. He will not be issuing a crypto coin in his own honour. Spelled with a U in Canada.
Everybody thinking that Canada didn’t deserve Turdeau should just read comments like yours…
Canada, like the rest of the anglosphere and Northern Europe, is just hopeless.
Canadians would be flushing a lot of personal liberty for the sake of a perceived advantage in a single negotiation.
If conservatives are no longer runaway favorites, that only proves how brainwashed Canuck voters are.
Let them decide who they want to lead. If they go down, it’s their choice. Same as America. Same as Ukraine. Same as Israel. Everyone has to contend with their own leaders. There is an interesting measure of happiness per country. Canadians have been happier than us for along time. But why learn from happier countries? I’m sure it’s all about how unhappy billionaires are… pretty much.
Australia’s ‘biggest defence export’ was meant to go to the US first, but Canada snuck past Donald Trump https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-19/canada-snuck-past-trump-buy-jorn-defence-radar/105069292
I don’t believe the polls. Remember last summer when Kamaltoe replaced Biden and suddenly polls showed her with an edge over Trump? We all know how that turned out on election day. Canadians are simply euphoric that Trudeau is gone in the same way they were when Biden was finally gone here.
Carney can of course still win because Canada is WAY more liberal than the US and there are more parties to steal votes but Carney has already been exposed as someone who is snarly with the press, the liberal press too (see what happened when the liberal press asked him about his personal businesses while he was going to be Prime Minister). I suspect his snarlyness ends up costing him as he is not polished at all.
More importantly what Mish left out is Carney went to Alberta and spoke to the Provincial governor. She told him in no uncertain terms that Alberta would not allow the Federal liberals to continue their green energy policy that keeps Alberta’s oil/gas in the ground and that whatever policy he enacted should he win could cause Alberta to have a secession vote like Quebec has had. THIS is what Trumps comments about the 51st state are all about. It’s about getting oil, gas, potash and uranium to US markets.
That is all subjective bystanding commentary. Back off this is serious.
Isn’t TexasTim65 Canadian?
I am indeed.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that
Aren’t you George Costanza? Not that there is anything wrong with it.
And from the Prairie provinces too?
Ontario. About 90 minutes east of Toronto.
Just relax.
Sort of a win-win for the US if you are right.
I don’t believe the polls either but 20 point ain’t nothin.
It could be 15 or 25.
Trump couldn’t care less about Canada’s PM. The scale of economies predetermines that the US rolls over Canada. Both sides have no tariffs or Canada is doomed as a separate economic entity.
The USMCA is reciprocal tariffs at a very low rate. Trump negotiated the only exceptions.
You are another person who needs an education. I suggest starting here:
Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
https://mishtalk.com/economics/cheese-was-a-key-achievement-of-trumps-usmca-trade-agreement/
Canada will be just fine after Canada repeals their 250% tariffs on US imports, and repeals hostile regulations. If not Canadians will suffer and Americans will laugh.
It would behoove you to
1. think
2. read
For starters you appear to have TDS Type II.
Second only TDS fools think Canada has 250% tariffs
Third, if they do, who was the jackass who negotiated that deal.
Fourth, lean to read
I suggest starting here
Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
https://mishtalk.com/economics/cheese-was-a-key-achievement-of-trumps-usmca-trade-agreement/
You are fighting the last war. The game has changed. The rules have changed.
I am not fighting any war, Tariffs are stupid.
If Trump believe it’s a win when then other guy loses more, then he is a fool.
Trump does not understand trade at all.
And the fact of the matter are
There is a cost to all of the above, whether or not Canada retaliates.
– There is a cost to all of the above, whether or not Canada retaliates.
> While I do agree, that there is indeed a cost, but will it ever get paid? With a shortened 4 Year, and what comes or in this case doesn’t come along with that, will there be anyone standing upright, that will be placed in a position to deal with what’s “Past History” literally? I think not, but who knows I suppose…