Home prices remain in the stratosphere, transactions in the gutter.
Case-Shiller Chart Notes
- CS National: Case Shiller National Home Price Index
- 10-City: Case Shiller 10-City Home Price Index
- CPI: Consumer Price Index
- OER: Owners’ Equivalent Rent, the price one would pay to rent their own home unfurnished without utilities
All of the above are seasonally adjusted.
National vs 10-City Index
- The national index is a record high 577.2 in April matching the February high. In May, the index dipped to 577.0.
- The 10-city index is 517.3 down from 519.2 in February.
Case-Shiller is is the best metric for price comparison because it measures the same price over time.
Median and average price statistics from the National Association Realtors, the Commerce Department, and others fail to capture location, number of rooms, amenities, lot size and other key measures.
The one drawback to Case-Shiller is time lag. The April report released on June 30 measures prices for February, March, and April.
That’s an effective lag of approximately three months. However, the lag is the price for accuracy.
Case Shiller Reports Annual Gain in April 2026
Please consider S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in April 2026
“April’s figures confirm that U.S. home prices remain essentially flat, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index up a scant 0.8% year over year, just above March’s 0.7% pace,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With inflation accelerating to 3.8% in April, U.S. home values have now declined in real terms for an 11th straight month, further eroding inflation-adjusted housing wealth.
“Geographic dispersion remains pronounced,” Godec continued. “Midwest and Northeast markets are still leading moderate growth, while many Sun Belt and Western metros see ongoing declines. Chicago was again the strongest market with a 6.5% annual gain, trailed by New York (3.8%) and Cleveland (3.2%). Seattle’s 2.3% year-over-year drop was the steepest in April, with Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Dallas (-1.6%), and Phoenix (-1.7%) also among the notable decliners. The nearly 9 percent performance spread between Chicago and Seattle highlights how localized housing trends remain.
“Monthly price movements show seasonal strength masking underlying softness,” Godec observed. “On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the National Index rose 0.8% from March (with the 10-City and 20-City Composites up 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively), reflecting typical spring gains. Yet after seasonal adjustment, the National Index dipped 0.1%, while the 20-City Composite was essentially flat (-0.04%). The latest six months saw a 1.35% national increase, offsetting a -0.5% decline in the prior six months. This represents a modest shift in direction, but remains limited in the context of rising costs.
“The affordability pinch remains a key headwind,” Godec concluded. “After dipping below 6% earlier this year, 30-year mortgage rates climbed back to 6.3% in April, keeping financing costs elevated. In this higher-rate environment, home price growth remains constrained, with housing largely treading water in nominal terms and falling in real terms.”
St. Louis Fed Data Feed
The St. Louis Fed (Federal Reserve Economic Data – FRED) did not upload the city data, only the 10-city and the national indexes.
Here is the latest data that I have.
Case-Shiller Home Price Detail Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Year-Over-Year Percent Change
The 10-city and national averages are through April, specific cities through March.
The Chicago and New York metro areas are doing very well. Las Vegas, LA, and Miami are doing poorly.
Case-Shiller National, Top 10 Metro, Percent Change From Month Ago
That is stale, from March, due to missing update on FRED.
Long-Term Perspective
The above chart and the lead chart put the slowdown into proper perspective.
A 50 percent decline in home prices is needed before we can talk about affordability.
Between 1988 and 2000, home prices rose in sync with rent, OER, and the CPI.
A huge series of Fed mistakes, first by Bernanke, then repeated by Powell led to home prices soaring wildly.
Related Posts
January 30, 2026: Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”
Somehow, I doubt Gen Z will like this message.
May 31, 2026: Housing Stagnation for Over Three Years in New and Existing Home Sales
New and existing-home sales collapsed in 2022 and have gone nowhere since.
June 16, 2026: Housing Starts Crash 15.4 Percent on Top of Steep Negative Revision
Compared to the unrevised April number, starts decline 19.7 percent.
June 25, 2026: New Home Sales Drop Another 7.3 Percent, Builders Struggle with Rising Inventory
Sales are down. Inventory is high and rising, pressuring builders.
Confirmed! Illegal immigration did contribute to increases in rents and home prices.
Fixed it up a bit. Welcome to Trump’s turd economy. You reap what you sow but it ain’t over yet. There are 930 more days of poop to travel through the economic digestive system before this turd gets flushed.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
Mish, thanks for this summary. You need a day off, Right? You are putting in a lot of time here.