New and existing-home sales collapsed in 2022 and have gone nowhere since.
Cycle Peaks
- New Home Sales: December 2021 at 816,000 now 622,000
- Existing-Home Sales: January 2022 at 6,340,000, now 4,020,000
Decline from Peak
- New Home Sales: 23.8 percent
- Existing-Home Sales: 36.6 percent
Since January of 2023, over three years, sales of new and existing homes has gone nowhere.
This is despite falling mortgage rates.
Between October 2023 and February 2026 Mortgage rates dropped from 8.03 percent to 2.00 percent.
In October 2023, new home sales were 689,000. In February 2026, new home sales were 641,000.
That’s a 7.0 percent decline in sales with mortgage rates falling two fill percentage points.
Case-Shiller Home Prices
Case-Shiller measures sales of the same home over time. Prices have exploded.
Case-Shiller is the best measure of price, but it lags by about 5 months.
Why Sales Are Down
- New buyers cannot afford the combination of high price and mortgage rates
- Others, who would like to move, don’t want to trade in a 3 percent mortgage for a 7 percent mortgage
The housing market is broken on all fronts with no solution.
Related Posts
May 11, 2026: Existing-Home Sales Flounder for Over Three Years, What’s Going On?
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May 26, 2026: National Home Prices Decline for the First Time Since July 2025
I am pleased to report a month-over-month home price decline. But don’t get too excited.
May 30, 2026: New Home Sales Decline 6.2 Percent, Pressure on Builders to Lower Prices
Sales are mostly stable in a broad range, but inventories are rising and consumer sentiment souring.
