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Ceasefire Broken but Back On, Vance-Iran Meeting Called Off, Now What?

The agreement did not even last a day. It’s fundamentally flawed.

Fighting Between Israel and Hezbollah Already

As many expected, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah started almost as soon as the deal was signed.

One aspect of the deal was never valid to begin with, the first point.

1) The US and Iran and their allies “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”

Legally, you cannot impose binding conditions on parties that do not sign a deal.

You and I cannot make a deal that we can have all the peaches on another neighbor’s tree, if the other neighbor does not sign the deal.

It was an act of sheer desperation by Trump to agree to point one. The rest of the deal, however, is valid.

Desperation Is Obvious

Truth Social: We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!

Jun 19, 2026, 6:37 AM

Stupidity Is Obvious

Truth Social: The War has diminished Iran! It doesn’t, any longer, have an Air Force, a Navy, Antiaircraft Equipment, Radar, or practically anything else, and yet the Dumocrats say that Iran is better off now than it was four months ago. Can you imagine getting away with that??? How stupid can some people be??? President DJT

Jun 19, 2026, 6:33 AM

Trump “Re-Truthed” both of those messages.

But nothing signals desperation more than repeating messages that you were not desperate, while signing deals that are not even legally valid.

Please note that four Israeli soldiers and at least 18 people in Lebanon were killed during fighting that started that immediately started.

But we have another ceasefire as well.

Israel, Hezbollah Agree to Renewed Ceasefire as Iran Peace Talks Postponed

The Wall Street Journal reports Israel, Hezbollah Agree to Renewed Ceasefire as Iran Peace Talks Postponed

Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a renewed ceasefire Friday, U.S. officials said, after talks between the U.S. and Iran were postponed amid intensified fighting in Lebanon.

The violence had threatened to derail progress after an agreement was reached earlier in the week to stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire was set to begin at 4 p.m. local time, the officials said.

The White House said Thursday that Vice President JD Vance, who is leading the U.S. negotiating team, wouldn’t be traveling to Switzerland to meet Iranian counterparts as planned. The Swiss foreign ministry confirmed talks were postponed and said it stands ready to facilitate should they resume.

Iran told mediators that Israeli strikes were a breach of the preliminary agreement and that they were seeking guarantees that they would end before negotiations could start, according to Iranian and Arab officials. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the U.S. was directly responsible for the situation and warned of serious consequences for regional security, according to Iranian state media.

It isn’t clear when the talks might resume. On Friday, Trump wrote on social media: “We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!”

Fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has become a major sticking point in negotiations and driven a wedge between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump, his most important ally. Their interests have diverged as Netanyahu seeks to keep up pressure on Iran and Hezbollah, while Trump looks for a way out of the war.

Tehran insists that any peace deal with Washington must include Lebanon, while Israel says it will keep up the fight there.

“This was a train wreck waiting to happen,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military-intelligence official and a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv. “If the U.S. wants an agreement, it will have to force Israel to completely stop and withdraw, and Netanyahu is not interested in that.”

The waves of strikes overnight marked one of the most serious escalations in Lebanon since a ceasefire in April. Israel’s military said four of its soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone strike, and that it had killed dozens of Hezbollah militants and carried out more than 150 strikes in response to what it said were repeated violations of the pact.

“My directive is clear: Israel will not tolerate attacks on our soldiers or our territory, and it will exact a very heavy price from Hezbollah for these assaults,” Netanyahu said on Friday.

The Israeli strikes targeted two command centers in the Bekaa Valley, in eastern Lebanon, as well as scores of other sites in the country’s south, the Israeli military said.

Hezbollah said on Thursday that it was fighting Israeli troops as they tried to advance farther inside Lebanese territory.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the Israeli strikes were “effectively undermining all ongoing efforts to consolidate the ceasefire and bring the war to an end,” adding that his country was still committed to reaching a comprehensive ceasefire.

Netanyahu himself hasn’t publicly criticized the deal, but ministers in his government have pushed to keep up fighting against Hezbollah.

“For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!” Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right minister of national security, said in a post on social media Friday. “With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeited.”

Vance lashed out at Israeli critics on Thursday, pointing out that the country relies on American weapons to defend itself. “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who’s sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time,” Vance said. “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”

Commercial Shipping

Trump Says He Can Control Israel

Control This?!

Trump Claims Iran Surrendered

From No Rush to Desperation

Who Broke the Ceasefire?

It’s hard to say whether Israel or Hezbollah broke the ceasefire.

But it’s clear Israel wants to break the deal between Iran and Trump.

The Hezbollah statement “It was fighting Israeli troops as they tried to advance farther inside Lebanese territory,” is believable. But is that in response to actions by Hezbollah?

Also, the statements by national security minister of the Israeli regime that “All of Lebanon must Burn” speaks for itself.

The Fall Guy

Another Surrender Point of Note

The only way for Trump to have any leverage over this Israeli madness is to stop all weapons deliveries to Israel and pull out all US air defense systems of Israel.

The US needs to make it clear it will no longer defend Israel if it advances into Lebanon.

That is what Iran forced.

And it’s another victory for Iran. The US got literally nothing out of this total surrender by by Trump.

I repeat Witness the Incredible White Flag Surrender by Trump on Iran

I expected surrender, but these video excerpts go far beyond humiliating.

JD Vance is going to take the fall for this.

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108 Comments
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Tom
Tom
1 month ago

It’s beginning to look like Trump’s only option is a military strike against Israel to prevent them from being so uppity and yippee. It doesn’t have to be a big military strike just one of those love taps to get their attention.

I don’t think he will do that. I think he will claim that the MOU is valid and walk away letting JD figure out the mess.

Meanwhile, I seriously expect Cuba to be invaded within the 60-day window to draw the attention away from the surrender to Iran

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
29 days ago
Reply to  Tom

The europeans are wheedling Trump to escalate the War On Russia.

Webej
Webej
1 month ago

LOL

Trump’s antics are more transparent than a 4-year old trying to convince you they did this or that and are in complete control. Trump is going to continue pouring out lunatic statements about the sky being pink or green or whatever.

For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. \

All of Lebanon must burn!

Whatever happened to the ancient adagium ‘eye for eye’?
Proportionality remains on of the pillars of our notions of justice.

Israel is honoring its moniker as terrorist entity.
Trying to murder it’s way to peace.
IDF fulfilling its main purpose — murdering women & children, onlookers.

peelo
peelo
1 month ago

Vance dance. Some free comedy relief. In my imagination, I superimpose a really hokey laugh track after every line.

Last edited 1 month ago by peelo
MelvinRich
MelvinRich
1 month ago

It’s all in the Old Testament. Israeli behavior is patterned after the Jews of old. This war may be the end of Israel, we can only hope so. The US needs to pack up and leave the middle east.

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
1 month ago

Taco said deal is on and not to worry as he is on top of this issue.

He said “trust me.”

Tom
Tom
1 month ago
Reply to  Tony Frank

I just want to know if he’s going to respect me in the morning

CJW
CJW
1 month ago

Is Iran a bigger threat than Israel? Maybe not.

The words of this Israeli foreign minister make him sound like a lunatic. He should not be in any position of power. The US should force the Israeli leaders to turn themselves in to face the war crime charges against them so that they can have a fair trial on those charges and if guilty be sentenced accordingly.

Israel has become a rogue nation.

Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago
Reply to  CJW

Israel has been a rogue nation since 1948.

rk syrus
rk syrus
1 month ago

One side is kiting promises like a deadbeat kites checks. The Persians are clacking counting beads on their chortkehs, banking gains and giving nothing for free.

Burning question: while you might risk taking your ships OUT from Persian Gulf, would you let your ships sail IN?

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago

quick Kia and Hyundai I NEED you! lmao

https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026061916014638865

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago

Trump has one chance to save face: Resign nowIf he wants any shot at a positive legacy, time’s up. He needs to cut a deal and walk away
https://www.salon.com/2026/06/19/trump-has-one-chance-to-save-face-resign-now/

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago

He’s more likely to sprout wings and fly out the window.

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
1 month ago

The positive legacy days sailed a long, long time ago.

He’s the worst president in US history. And it’s not even close.

Last edited 1 month ago by Phil in CT
Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago

25/47

Sentient
Sentient
1 month ago

Israel and their American shabbos goyim want the war to resume, but neither of the Axis of Evil have any effective military cards to play. They can’t open the Strait or dethrone the Iranian government or destroy Iran’s underground ballistic missiles. They had no cards before the MOU and they still have O cards.

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
1 month ago

I would have thought that it was pretty basic knowledge of military matters, that the front-line troops cannot always be closely controlled by the people at home. The Israelis are rather in the position of front-line troops in relation to Trump. He may not immediately be able to control what they do on the ground, but if he really wants to, and if he isn’t controlled in some way I don’t know about (let’s not have any more silly comments about Epstein – most of you people are just resentful that you weren’t important enough to be invited into the room with the little hookers yourselves), then he can cut off resupply, and Israel will eventually have to do his bidding.

The Israelis really are in a very difficult and dangerous position. I think they shouldn’t be there in the first place, but since they are there, you can expect them to fight.

I think what Vance is saying is pretty sensible. Trump knows it: it’s just that he has a New York way of exaggerating and making wild statements. You should be able to discount for that by now.

Any settlement or pacification of the Middle East will no doubt be good for American business. It will also please American feminists who think that Muslims should be made to let their women take charge of them as we do. There are hidden agendas here. Trump probably knows it.

One of the bad guys, James Carville, just made a very sensible statement praising Trump for getting out. I don’t know whether Trump has won or lost: I think the maneuvers are still going on, and there may still be fighting ahead. But Carville is right in saying that Trump is being more sensible than Lyndon Johnson in Viet Nam, or Bush or Obama in their Middle East conflicts.

Cowpoke
Cowpoke
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

What are you a closet pedo?

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago
Reply to  Cowpoke
I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell
Creamer
Creamer
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

You’re saying you… wanted to be on the island?

Mish can we all get a screen grab of this guy saying he wants to molest kids and thinks we should be jealous of that?

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

In other words surrendering to Iran is the best thing Trump ever did. On the other hand, starting the was was the stupidest thing Trump ever did.

CJW
CJW
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

Who put those troops on front line to begin with? Who started the war with Lebanon this time? If you don’t know Trump lost you are probably the only one, because it is very obvious. A lot of lives lost and money spent to get into a worse position than when he started this war is a loss. Getting out of the war was the right decision, never having started it would have been a better decision.

There is no way to spin this to say Trump did the right thing when you look at the totality of the situation. Saying he did a good thing by stopping is like shooting someone in the head and then congratulating yourself for being a good person because you drove them to the hospital.

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
1 month ago
Reply to  CJW

There are already a lot of allegations and myths floating around, and the war isn’t definitely over yet. What was that line about truth being the first casualty?

As I recollect it, Trump had a remarkable success in Venezuela. If you are a cynic, you could say that after having had beginner’s luck, he decided to try his hand at something a bit harder, and it didn’t go too well. You could blame him for being influenced by Jewish relatives and staff.

But as I see it, it isn’t over yet. He has forced a lot of people to line up on one side or the other. Singapore has come out firmly against allowing neighboring states to put tolls on narrow waterways. The various Arab states around the Persian Gulf seem to have been exchanging fire with the Persians, which doesn’t suggest to me that they are on Persia’s side. The Europeans seem to be dithering as usual, but I have heard that they are at least in favor of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Australia has been challenged about whether it is really a U.S. ally, and a good thing too. America’s defense industries will have had a good exercise, which they probably needed.

I am just glad, “looking at the totality of the situation,” that there is a competent man, capable of learning by experience, in charge. The thing I am most afraid of is the volatile American electorate, and the serious chance that we shall get another incompetent in charge in a bit under three years’ time.

American business is always looking for more territory to take over. It tried to take over Russia by way of the Ukraine, and so far has been thwarted there. Taking over Greenland would have been a good idea, but I can see the problem in terms of international law and appearances: it’s hard to justify stealing territory from Denmark. Maybe Elon Musk has the right idea, and you should take over outer space.

Creamer
Creamer
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

let’s not have any more silly comments about Epstein – most of you people are just resentful that you weren’t important enough to be invited into the room with the little hookers yourselves

No no Arthur, you’re not getting away with saying this one. Go on and tell us all what you meant by ‘little hookers’.

Jon
Jon
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

“There are already a lot of allegations and myths floating around, and the war isn’t definitely over yet.“

It’s hard to imagine the idiot Trump could lose any more, but you never know.

Tom
Tom
1 month ago
Reply to  Arthur Orwell

You are a fucking disgusting pervert.
Anything more will get be banned but I’ve so much more to say…

I’ll conclude with, “fuck you and the horse you rode in on.”

Sorry Mish, don’t hate me too much. I just have a problem with people trying to normalize child rape.

Arthur Orwell
Arthur Orwell
26 days ago
Reply to  Tom

Thanks for that. I do prefer reasoned replies, especially ones that point out any real mistakes I have made, allowing me to learn something. But your sort of reaction gives me confidence that I am on the right track.

The Dude Abides
The Dude Abides
1 month ago

I would pay good money to see real-time updates of the Israel Lobby’s activities to undermine the MOU.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago

They’re scurrying around behind the scenes like methed up Oompa Loompas.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

Pipe hitting Oompa Loompas with sacks of cash.

Tom
Tom
1 month ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

What did the Oompa Loompas ever do to you to deserve such comparison? I think the Oompa Loompas have a better sense of the world than Israel.

4IronFan
4IronFan
1 month ago

Mish,
You are pandering to the Iranian cause. “ The only way for Trump to have any leverage over this Israeli madness is to stop all weapons deliveries to Israel and pull out all US air defense systems of Israel.
The US needs to make it clear it will no longer defend Israel if it advances into Lebanon.”

Yes, the wars goals were not achieved and has left Israel’s battle against the ‘resistance’ in place. This by no means invalidates the correctness of the war goals.

The destruction of Israel is still the explicit aim of Hezbollah, etc. No country on Earth would allow such forces to go unpunished when being attacked. Let’s remember who the good guys are and why we support Israel against an intolerant and genocidal pack of religious fanatics. You expect Israel to turn the other cheek to these monsters?

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  4IronFan

The United States furnishes more than arms. It also furnishes apartheid Israel with cash, intelligence and diplomatic cover , to name a few.

Israel is the aggressor here. Not Iran. Not Hezbollah.

Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

And the U.S. are Israel’s accomplice.

threeblindmice
threeblindmice
1 month ago
Reply to  4IronFan

“good guys”, “genocidal pack of religious fanatics” – cartoon caricatures based on propaganda is no way to go through school, my son. Perhaps if the yishuv had not demanded partition, instead respecting the wishes of the majority to have a secular state with true democracy instead of opting for ethnic cleansing and takings of land/businesses/homes, the Palestinian retaliation (together with their allies) would have been unnecessary. Dommage…

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  4IronFan

Israel IS the intolerant and genocidal pack of fanatics.

Israel has done more damage to the US than any other country.

I expect Israel to stay within their borders. Their “buffer zones” always end up full of settlers that need another “buffer zone” to protect them from the people who’s land they stole.

Israelis are entitled revenge junkies, crying victim because their actions made everyone hate them.

Tom
Tom
29 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

That last point, about crying victim, sounds like the kind of people Trump loves to model.

Quatloo
Quatloo
29 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

You summed it up very nicely!

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  4IronFan

At least since 9/11, Muslims have been constantly challenged by Westerners, perhaps especially by Jewish Westerners, to reform their religion to rid it of what was claimed to be its endemic violence. How many internet experts on Islam and AM radio-educated Persia scholars do we see on this site?

So why is nobody demanding that Jews rid Judaism of its ancient, inherent Jewish supremacy that began as a cope and developed into a worldview that justifies the sniper-killling of toddlers?

Tom
Tom
29 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Only the Christians went through a Reformation to climb out of the Bronze Age.

Jews and Muslims could learn something

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago

Trump says there are ‘no limits’ to his power
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5931777-trump-iran-war-power/

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago

The man can’t even control his bodily functions, ffs.

john
john
1 month ago

America is the 950 pound Gorilla portraying itself as the Good Cop and says they are stopping the war in Lebanon. Israel the 50 pound Monkey plays the Bad Cop and just keeps bombing Lebanon anyway. The Gorilla is just helpless it seems? But is this just really a land grab where American and Israel business interests will later develop these former parts of Lebanon for the ever expanding Israel? Is this the Good and Bad Cop really in collusion? These newly captured lands are already 15% of Lebanese territory?

why
why
1 month ago

Israel and Hezbollah seem to have agreed to a truce, for now.

“But nothing signals desperation more than repeating messages that you were not desperate, while signing deals that are not even legally valid.”

The more I think about how fast this unfolded, and what was agreed to, I can only think that Trump believes Iran wont follow through with their end of the agreement.

Trump now sits in a position where he can wipe his hands of the Iranian situation (Pontius Pilate) as Israel has the means (they aren’t bound by the MOU), and will, to provoke Iran into something that could cause a failure to meet the objectives of the MOU (I’m sure they don’t want Iran to have access to 300 billion).

In my opinion it was stupid to sign this, for no country can be controlled by another country if sovereign.

The current situation entails two ideological systems that have been at war with one another for ~1.2k years, and people believe that a signatures on a paper will cover over the long standing hatred and need for revenge? Especially when one of them wasn’t at the negotiating table or signed the agreement?

LoL!

It’s only a matter of time.

Jon
Jon
1 month ago
Reply to  why

But Trump can’t wipe his hands from a global depression caused by petroleum doubling in price. That is 100% on him. Well, JD Vance if you ask Trump.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon

Under the bus goes JD, Bumpity bump!

threeblindmice
threeblindmice
1 month ago
Reply to  why

They haven’t been fighting for 1200 years. This began at Balfour in 1917.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  why

Jews were in fact welcome in Muslim lands until 1917. There is a reason so many Jews lived in Muslim Spain, until the Reconquista.

Those same Jews fled Christian Spain for the Ottoman Empire.

Similarly, the Muslim rulers of Palestine left Jews alone. The Crusaders were far less tolerant.

Last edited 1 month ago by Feral Finster
Nate
Nate
1 month ago

Is Hormuz open? closed? toll fees? insurance?

If open, how many ships passed through in the last 24 hours? at what cost?

Flavia
Flavia
1 month ago
Reply to  Nate

30 pieces of silver.

peelo
peelo
1 month ago
Reply to  Nate

Yes, entities with their own money on the table are the indicators to look to. Trump doesn’t count: he has endless supplies of our skin (and gullibility, apparently) in the game. His concern over his “brand” (such as, say, ancient Roman leaders manifested in sometimes socially useful ways, for “glory”) in him, manifests not through actual winning, but. through throwing people under buses, while forming the usual cloud of shameless obfuscation and switching the table around.

Last edited 1 month ago by peelo
Jon
Jon
1 month ago
Reply to  Nate

Only Iranian ships are getting through.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 month ago
Reply to  Nate

If open, how many ships passed through in the last 24 hours?

A one day blip of 16 ships.

Including 7 tankers carrying 12 mb of oil. 4 Iranian, 3 Saudi. Heading for India, Sri Lanka and China.

Then Iran announced that they were closing the strait because of Lebanon. A few ships were then turned around before reaching the strait.

Compared with normal traffic levels of 100+ ships per day and 20 mb of oil and refined products.

The strait is not going to be getting back to normal anytime soon.

Pakistan confirmed the location of one mine in the Oman area, giving the location. Ships are encouraged to apply to Iran for transit through the Iranian approved routes and avoid the Oman routes.

Iran will keep the traffic to a minimum, while sending their own ships out. Every day that passes sees their leverage increasing in order to get more concessions from Trump.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 month ago

“The only way for Trump to have any leverage over this Israeli madness is to stop all weapons deliveries to Israel and pull out all US air defense systems of Israel.”

Might I add cut funding too. Regular readers here know that I can’t stand leeches that contribute nothing and take money, I make no exceptions for countries.

Paging Frosty, paging Frosty, oil futures slowly grinding back up 🤑. A few more ticks and I’ll start selling calls and buying puts again, in the meantime I will collect dividends. Lol. The cash always rolls in.

🔅🔅🔅 3-Star Mishelin award for wise analysis, prudent thinking and putting all the fabulous facts on the table.

Eric
Eric
1 month ago

Iran spotted the weakness immediately: Trump is desperate for a deal, any deal, at any cost.
So why rush? Every week of delay, aided by Hezbollah, improves Iran’s bargaining position.
The longer the talks drag on, the more Trump appears desperate for a deal.
When a deal eventually comes, it will be the best deal for Iran the world has ever seen.

Eric
Eric
1 month ago
Reply to  Eric

At the rate things are going, Iran may find it easier to get a nuclear bomb directly from Trump than to build one by enriching uranium.

Sentient
Sentient
1 month ago
Reply to  Eric

Now there’s an idea I can get behind. Or eliminate most of Iran’s need for deterrence by eliminating Israel.

peelo
peelo
1 month ago
Reply to  Eric

Iran (or Israel, or both) can yank on a thread that immediately tugs gas prices up at the most visible everyday score card in the world: USA gas pumps. And by now, that surely makes Trump wince. Global strategic petroleum reserves are depleted.

Last edited 1 month ago by peelo
Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 month ago

Israel can easily handle bombing Iran, as long as:

  • They fly American made fighter jets
  • Refuel using American stratotankers
  • Using American produced jet fuel
  • Dropping American made munitions
  • Using American intelligence/targeting for strike packages
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 month ago
Reply to  Joe Penny
  • They have a moron in the White House enabling them.
Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

That’s been the case for at least half a century.

peelo
peelo
1 month ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Now I wonder, where will the fault lines thus appear, in US society? Splitting whom from whom, and by gaps how wide? It is like subsurface stress, and it is being contained by various containers now straining harder and harder, and we can wonder where the earthquake or volcano will appear.

Mick
Mick
1 month ago

IMO it’s a brilliant move by Iran. They’ve put the ball in DJT’s court : get your proxy/partner under control or we won’t even negotiate towards a formal agreement. Meanwhile, they get their own oil through, while economic consequences continue to play out. Many people who were even aware (and most probably were not) that a much greater energy/economic crisis is on the horizon probably breathed a sigh of relief when the MOU was signed. This relief is misplaced. The *worst* consequences may have been prevented but we’ll still lucky just to be scraping bottom. A lot of ships need maintenance (barnacles and such) to be seaworthy and traffic won’t normalize for awhile yet.

Iran has to understand that the war may not be over, and they surely are making preparations for the next round (whether overt war or more Mossad/CIA covert ops). The MOU isn’t legally binding and as you note Israel isn’t even a signatory. Even if the ceasefire holds short-term, there’s a significant possibility negotiations fall apart, and even if they agree on terms in the end, how enforceable would a final agreement be? AIPAC-bought Congress would never agree to a treaty.

Unlike Congress, American people aren’t bought off. While we don’t yet have a potent anti-war movement, anti-Israel sentiment is growing. Regardless of what happens in negotiations, I think further consequences for SOH closure will hit before mid-terms and then we’ll see if politicians begin to fear American backlash more than threats from their Israeli supporters.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 month ago
Reply to  Mick

Anyone that thinks Israel is going to lay down like a dog has never done business with these people. They are ruthless and become maniacally focused on whatever their end goal is no matter the cost ($$$ or lives, doesn’t matter). This mess is so far from over it’s not even close to funny. (but lolz anyway)

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

One could have said the same about germans. Until they met the Red Army and decided that this tough guy macho “the world belongs to the strong!” ain’t nearly as much fun when you’re on the receiving end.

Whereupon germans transmogrified overnight into the biggest metrosexual pacifists in europe.

jack
jack
1 month ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Easy when it is not their money

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
1 month ago

As long as the sun rises every morning, Israel will be killing terror babies in their hospital tunnels.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago

“Legally, you cannot impose binding conditions on parties that do not sign a deal.

You and I cannot make a deal that we can have all the peaches on another neighbor’s tree, if the other neighbor does not sign the deal.”

Law has nothing to do with it, if the US can make Israel go along.

It’s not as if belgium had a say in the Treaty of Versailles. They weren’t happy, but the british and french told them “too bad for you….”

peelo
peelo
1 month ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Because of Israel’s nuclear capability, and limits on other global powers, the only power that can exercise control is the USA, through withholding its transfers. And any US politician who stands up in any legislature and takes a hard position on that will be gone before sunrise, with a tarnished name. Any small town teacher who stands up in any classroom to that effect will be Internet-infamous, that day, and looking for a job that has vaporized.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  peelo

What is Israel going to do nuke the US until they deliver airplane parts and diplomatic cover?

Quatloo
Quatloo
1 month ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

What nobody is mentioning at all is that Israel has invaded Lebanon. Israel is attacking another country, Lebanon. Hezbollah is attacking Israel in Lebanon. The example fails when someone crosses into someone else’s yard by force and kills the owner when the owner takes peaches off his own tree.

jack
jack
1 month ago
Reply to  Quatloo

They are complaining of a dead Israeli while they invade another country.

They are so entitled they think they should just be able to walk in and take land and possessions without any resistance.

Sentient
Sentient
1 month ago
Reply to  jack

The God most of them don’t believe in promised them whatever land they want and the right to kill anyone in their way. According to Zionists.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago

Iran to seek ‘insurance fees’ for passage through Strait of HormuzVessels must hold Tehran-approved insurance policy to use vital waterway, says government agency

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-plans-charge-insurance-fee-vessels-transiting-hormuz-after-us-deal-expires

Mick
Mick
1 month ago

Under the circumstances I think I understand why Iran would impose the requirement, but it does remind me of mobster tropes. “Say, you have a nice ship there. It would be a shame if something were to happen to it. Did I mention we happen to sell ship insurance?”

Frank
Frank
1 month ago
Reply to  Mick

Iran is dealing with gangsters. Netanyhu and Trump along with their gangster military.

Jon
Jon
1 month ago
Reply to  Mick

The goal is more like “I saw you keep on doing business with the Zionists. I guess having oil isn’t that important to you…”

Creamer
Creamer
1 month ago

Trump absolutely can stop Israel, all he has to do is cut them off. Should be simple for a guy who’s entire presidency so far has been cutting allies off for much less. No American bombs and planes (that we can shut off remotely if we want to) = no more big mister tough guy Israel.

The real question is: Will he pull that ripcord?

top gone
top gone
1 month ago
Reply to  Creamer

he cant they have the files

jack
jack
1 month ago
Reply to  top gone

War starts because of the file, and does a 360 lol.

Blackmail can be a forever thing.

peelo
peelo
1 month ago
Reply to  Creamer

There are so many powerful people in and out of the White House, as well as both parties in Congress, to put a stop to that. And I’m no conspiracy wingnut.

Bill
Bill
1 month ago

Israel attacked/defended, is attacking/defending, and will attack/defend as any other nation on earth did do/is doing/will do and to think one could bind a third party without their signature or agreement is folly. Even if we choose to not sell weapons to them, the Israelis will get their hands on weapons in the same fashion as Iran does or Libya or Egypt or Uruguay or Myanmar…..

So both parties of this deal will have to simply agree that the US and Iran have agreed for now and know that Iran will funnel money and weapons to Hezbollah while claiming they are not terrorists and Israel will continue to deal with what that means as they exist in that region.

What a total waste of time, money, weaponry, political capital, and human capital since February. From the President who knew better in term 1, claimed he knew better on the stump for term 2 and yet plowed blindly forward.

It shone a light on the worldwide vulnerability to Persian Gulf oil and the superpowers are now weaker in the age of drones, espeically when the fighting involves something which doesn’t have the commitment required to finish, if one chooses to start.

<sigh>

peelo
peelo
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Even pre-drones, the two Iraq wars showed that (1) we could not control such a regime remotely from the air, and (2) even putting boots on the ground in such a place didn’t bring about the desired result. All this, impoverishing us into the bargain. And Mister No Principles built his political brand criticizing our folly there, only to betray his word — shocking!

Anthony
Anthony
1 month ago
Reply to  Bill

Israel isn’t helping itself here. they seem to openly be striking civilian targets with no military value, destroying and killing just to stop the Iran deal. Israel is winning battles and losig wars. if there’s a blue wave in the fall, there will be a new stance towards israel do this is strategcally stupid.

everytime i defend Israel on something legit, it does somthig unwarranted in the West Bank. the givernment is tolerating literal pogroms there. so it’s hard to pick the good stuff when it’s doing so much bad at the moment.

jack
jack
1 month ago
Reply to  Anthony

With Israel, I cannot see any what good stuff.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  jack

I like their little hats.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago

Trump forgot to bring Iran deal to signing — leaving Rubio scrambling for printer:That tells me that Trumps handlers have all but set him out on a dingy without any ores

peelo
peelo
1 month ago

That, or the team is as big a bunch of Keystone cops, of monkeys pulling levers, as we thought.

jack
jack
1 month ago

Trump fired the team that negotiates these types of deals last year. He has no team.

He was using the Pakistanis to negotiate the deal for him.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago

Israel doesn’t want the war to end and obviously believes they have leverage.

Last edited 1 month ago by Feral Finster
Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Maybe the right ally is Iran and the right enemy is Israel.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago

It was an unconditional surrender with conditions.

Mike R
Mike R
1 month ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

nonsense! it was a total unconditional surrender…

…. by Trump…

Buffalobob
Buffalobob
1 month ago

Now what? Now it is time for the US Political Class to decide who they represent. Do they represent 9 million Zionists whose representatives pervert the US political system with hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes (campaign contributions), or do they represent the best interests of 300+ million US citizens

Rarely in US politics is there such a stark,defining choice. Hopefully voters are paying attention.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
1 month ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

There is no question

Jon
Jon
1 month ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

When half the population believes that Jesus is trying to get back but can’t do it until the Jews make a new temple for him, you can’t have much concern for the American people.

pokercat
pokercat
1 month ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

They will represent the people that bribe and blackmail them. Epstein ran wild not only through the rich elite but through our political class also. Even those that have retired or quit don’t want their past revealed and will do all they can to prevent it.

top gone
top gone
1 month ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

it is time for a change no billionaires when you have 100 million you get a trophy and a nice jacket that you won. the rest of the money goes to help the society that got you there. I was a pretty staunch repub way back but now I am voting democrat socialist because frankly this ends one of two way tax reform so the wealthy start paying up or revolution and the end of capitalism the epstein class and the lobbyist controlling government will not stand. If they leave they cannot profit in this country. period they will not leave. anyone that is that greedy truly need physiological help.

Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago
Reply to  Buffalobob

Who pays for the political class? The AIPAC. Mice, meet the piper.

The Window Cleaner
The Window Cleaner
1 month ago

Trump is politically desparate to end the war and Iran, Israel and Hezbollah knows this. Its what happens when egotists, authoritarians and dilletantes like Trump and Hegseth fail to consider supremely important factors like control of the Strait of Hormuz.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago

The stupid rich kid that gets drunk at a high stakes poker game…

peelo
peelo
1 month ago

Remember “shock and awe”? The projected $100 million fast-forward air-based war that was going to instantly modify the culture and consciousness of Iraq? And tip the world into a paradise of Mickey Ds? Neither does every fool who loudly cheered for it, bullied everyone on their block about it, then quietly, unapologetically turned tail on W Bush, slinking away, and subsequently voted for Trump. And now defends him until the next fiasco. It must be enormous work to be so consistently stupid.

Bill Meyer
Bill Meyer
1 month ago

One of history’s greatest “Unforced Errors”, but the U.S. is in for a penny in for a pound, so to speak.

JCH1952
JCH1952
1 month ago

Exactly like the great unconditional surrenders of the past, only better.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  JCH1952

It was unbelievable! Very few people have seen such a great unconditional surrender.

Jon
Jon
1 month ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

It was tremendous. Really beautiful.

jack
jack
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon

The best there has ever been

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