The agreement did not even last a day. It’s fundamentally flawed.
Fighting Between Israel and Hezbollah Already
As many expected, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah started almost as soon as the deal was signed.
One aspect of the deal was never valid to begin with, the first point.
1) The US and Iran and their allies “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Legally, you cannot impose binding conditions on parties that do not sign a deal.
You and I cannot make a deal that we can have all the peaches on another neighbor’s tree, if the other neighbor does not sign the deal.
It was an act of sheer desperation by Trump to agree to point one. The rest of the deal, however, is valid.
Desperation Is Obvious
Truth Social: We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!
Jun 19, 2026, 6:37 AM
Stupidity Is Obvious
Truth Social: The War has diminished Iran! It doesn’t, any longer, have an Air Force, a Navy, Antiaircraft Equipment, Radar, or practically anything else, and yet the Dumocrats say that Iran is better off now than it was four months ago. Can you imagine getting away with that??? How stupid can some people be??? President DJT
Jun 19, 2026, 6:33 AM
Trump “Re-Truthed” both of those messages.
But nothing signals desperation more than repeating messages that you were not desperate, while signing deals that are not even legally valid.
Please note that four Israeli soldiers and at least 18 people in Lebanon were killed during fighting that started that immediately started.
But we have another ceasefire as well.
Israel, Hezbollah Agree to Renewed Ceasefire as Iran Peace Talks Postponed
The Wall Street Journal reports Israel, Hezbollah Agree to Renewed Ceasefire as Iran Peace Talks Postponed
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a renewed ceasefire Friday, U.S. officials said, after talks between the U.S. and Iran were postponed amid intensified fighting in Lebanon.
The violence had threatened to derail progress after an agreement was reached earlier in the week to stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire was set to begin at 4 p.m. local time, the officials said.
The White House said Thursday that Vice President JD Vance, who is leading the U.S. negotiating team, wouldn’t be traveling to Switzerland to meet Iranian counterparts as planned. The Swiss foreign ministry confirmed talks were postponed and said it stands ready to facilitate should they resume.
Iran told mediators that Israeli strikes were a breach of the preliminary agreement and that they were seeking guarantees that they would end before negotiations could start, according to Iranian and Arab officials. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the U.S. was directly responsible for the situation and warned of serious consequences for regional security, according to Iranian state media.
It isn’t clear when the talks might resume. On Friday, Trump wrote on social media: “We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!”
Fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has become a major sticking point in negotiations and driven a wedge between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump, his most important ally. Their interests have diverged as Netanyahu seeks to keep up pressure on Iran and Hezbollah, while Trump looks for a way out of the war.
Tehran insists that any peace deal with Washington must include Lebanon, while Israel says it will keep up the fight there.
“This was a train wreck waiting to happen,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military-intelligence official and a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv. “If the U.S. wants an agreement, it will have to force Israel to completely stop and withdraw, and Netanyahu is not interested in that.”
The waves of strikes overnight marked one of the most serious escalations in Lebanon since a ceasefire in April. Israel’s military said four of its soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone strike, and that it had killed dozens of Hezbollah militants and carried out more than 150 strikes in response to what it said were repeated violations of the pact.
“My directive is clear: Israel will not tolerate attacks on our soldiers or our territory, and it will exact a very heavy price from Hezbollah for these assaults,” Netanyahu said on Friday.
The Israeli strikes targeted two command centers in the Bekaa Valley, in eastern Lebanon, as well as scores of other sites in the country’s south, the Israeli military said.
Hezbollah said on Thursday that it was fighting Israeli troops as they tried to advance farther inside Lebanese territory.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the Israeli strikes were “effectively undermining all ongoing efforts to consolidate the ceasefire and bring the war to an end,” adding that his country was still committed to reaching a comprehensive ceasefire.
Netanyahu himself hasn’t publicly criticized the deal, but ministers in his government have pushed to keep up fighting against Hezbollah.
“For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!” Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right minister of national security, said in a post on social media Friday. “With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeited.”
Vance lashed out at Israeli critics on Thursday, pointing out that the country relies on American weapons to defend itself. “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who’s sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time,” Vance said. “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”
Commercial Shipping
Trump Says He Can Control Israel
Control This?!
Trump Claims Iran Surrendered
From No Rush to Desperation
Who Broke the Ceasefire?
It’s hard to say whether Israel or Hezbollah broke the ceasefire.
But it’s clear Israel wants to break the deal between Iran and Trump.
The Hezbollah statement “It was fighting Israeli troops as they tried to advance farther inside Lebanese territory,” is believable. But is that in response to actions by Hezbollah?
Also, the statements by national security minister of the Israeli regime that “All of Lebanon must Burn” speaks for itself.
The Fall Guy
Another Surrender Point of Note
The only way for Trump to have any leverage over this Israeli madness is to stop all weapons deliveries to Israel and pull out all US air defense systems of Israel.
The US needs to make it clear it will no longer defend Israel if it advances into Lebanon.
That is what Iran forced.
And it’s another victory for Iran. The US got literally nothing out of this total surrender by by Trump.
I repeat Witness the Incredible White Flag Surrender by Trump on Iran
I expected surrender, but these video excerpts go far beyond humiliating.
JD Vance is going to take the fall for this.
Iran spotted the weakness immediately: Trump is desperate for a deal, any deal, at any cost.
So why rush? Every week of delay, aided by Hezbollah, improves Iran’s bargaining position.
The longer the talks drag on, the more Trump appears desperate for a deal.
When a deal eventually comes, it will be the best deal for Iran the world has ever seen.
At the rate things are going, Iran may find it easier to get a nuclear bomb directly from Trump than to build one by enriching uranium.
Israel can easily handle bombing Iran, as long as:
IMO it’s a brilliant move by Iran. They’ve put the ball in DJT’s court : get your proxy/partner under control or we won’t even negotiate towards a formal agreement. Meanwhile, they get their own oil through, while economic consequences continue to play out. Many people who were even aware (and most probably were not) that a much greater energy/economic crisis is on the horizon probably breathed a sigh of relief when the MOU was signed. This relief is misplaced. The *worst* consequences may have been prevented but we’ll still lucky just to be scraping bottom. A lot of ships need maintenance (barnacles and such) to be seaworthy and traffic won’t normalize for awhile yet.
Iran has to understand that the war may not be over, and they surely are making preparations for the next round (whether overt war or more Mossad/CIA covert ops). The MOU isn’t legally binding and as you note Israel isn’t even a signatory. Even if the ceasefire holds short-term, there’s a significant possibility negotiations fall apart, and even if they agree on terms in the end, how enforceable would a final agreement be? AIPAC-bought Congress would never agree to a treaty.
Unlike Congress, American people aren’t bought off. While we don’t yet have a potent anti-war movement, anti-Israel sentiment is growing. Regardless of what happens in negotiations, I think further consequences for SOH closure will hit before mid-terms and then we’ll see if politicians begin to fear American backlash more than threats from their Israeli supporters.
Anyone that thinks Israel is going to lay down like a dog has never done business with these people. They are ruthless and become maniacally focused on whatever their end goal is no matter the cost ($$$ or lives, doesn’t matter). This mess is so far from over it’s not even close to funny. (but lolz anyway)
As long as the sun rises every morning, Israel will be killing terror babies in their hospital tunnels.
“Legally, you cannot impose binding conditions on parties that do not sign a deal.
You and I cannot make a deal that we can have all the peaches on another neighbor’s tree, if the other neighbor does not sign the deal.”
Law has nothing to do with it, if the US can make Israel go along.
It’s not as if belgium had a say in the Treaty of Versailles. They weren’t happy, but the british and french told them “too bad for you….”
Iran to seek ‘insurance fees’ for passage through Strait of HormuzVessels must hold Tehran-approved insurance policy to use vital waterway, says government agency
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-plans-charge-insurance-fee-vessels-transiting-hormuz-after-us-deal-expires
Under the circumstances I think I understand why Iran would impose the requirement, but it does remind me of mobster tropes. “Say, you have a nice ship there. It would be a shame if something were to happen to it. Did I mention we happen to sell ship insurance?”
Trump absolutely can stop Israel, all he has to do is cut them off. Should be simple for a guy who’s entire presidency so far has been cutting allies off for much less. No American bombs and planes (that we can shut off remotely if we want to) = no more big mister tough guy Israel.
The real question is: Will he pull that ripcord?
Israel attacked/defended, is attacking/defending, and will attack/defend as any other nation on earth did do/is doing/will do and to think one could bind a third party without their signature or agreement is folly. Even if we choose to not sell weapons to them, the Israelis will get their hands on weapons in the same fashion as Iran does or Libya or Egypt or Uruguay or Myanmar…..
So both parties of this deal will have to simply agree that the US and Iran have agreed for now and know that Iran will funnel money and weapons to Hezbollah while claiming they are not terrorists and Israel will continue to deal with what that means as they exist in that region.
What a total waste of time, money, weaponry, political capital, and human capital since February. From the President who knew better in term 1, claimed he knew better on the stump for term 2 and yet plowed blindly forward.
It shone a light on the worldwide vulnerability to Persian Gulf oil and the superpowers are now weaker in the age of drones, espeically when the fighting involves something which doesn’t have the commitment required to finish, if one chooses to start.
<sigh>
Trump forgot to bring Iran deal to signing — leaving Rubio scrambling for printer:That tells me that Trumps handlers have all but set him out on a dingy without any ores
Israel doesn’t want the war to end and obviously believes they have leverage.
It was an unconditional surrender with conditions.
nonsense! it was a total unconditional surrender…
…. by Trump…
Now what? Now it is time for the US Political Class to decide who they represent. Do they represent 9 million Zionists whose representatives pervert the US political system with hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes (campaign contributions), or do they represent the best interests of 300+ million US citizens
Rarely in US politics is there such a stark,defining choice. Hopefully voters are paying attention.
There is no question
Trump is politically desparate to end the war and Iran, Israel and Hezbollah knows this. Its what happens when egotists, authoritarians and dilletantes like Trump and Hegseth fail to consider supremely important factors like control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The stupid rich kid that gets drunk at a high stakes poker game…
One of history’s greatest “Unforced Errors”, but the U.S. is in for a penny in for a pound, so to speak.
Exactly like the great unconditional surrenders of the past, only better.
It was unbelievable! Very few people have seen such a great unconditional surrender.