Well that was fast. 
US-Sanctioned Tanker Tests Trump Blockade
Bloomberg reports US-Sanctioned Tanker Tests Trump Blockade With Hormuz Transit
A US-sanctioned tanker linked to China is making its way through the Strait of Hormuz, testing President Donald Trump’s naval blockade.
Rich Starry, a medium-range tanker earlier known as Full Star, was blacklisted by Washington in 2023 for helping Tehran evade energy sanctions. It is not clear on this occasion whether it visited Iranian ports before its transit, or is carrying cargo.
Saudi Arabia Is Pressing U.S. to Drop Its Hormuz Blockade
The Wall Street Journal reports Saudi Arabia Is Pressing U.S. to Drop Its Hormuz Blockade
Saudi Arabia is pressing the U.S. to drop its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and return to the negotiating table, fearing President Trump’s move to close it off could lead Iran to escalate and disrupt other important shipping routes, Arab officials said.
The blockade is aimed at raising the pressure on Iran’s already crippled economy. But the officials said Saudi Arabia has warned Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb—a Red Sea chokepoint crucial for the kingdom’s remaining oil exports.
The pushback is a sign of the risks and limitations of U.S. efforts to pry open the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran shut early in the war by attacking ships in the waterway, cutting off around 13 million barrels a day in oil exports and sending futures prices above $100 a barrel.
The blockade of Iranian ports went into effect Monday after Trump’s threats of bombardments and talks over the weekend failed to persuade Iran to relax its hold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia recently has been able to get its oil exports back up to their prewar level of around seven million barrels a day despite the blockage in the strategic strait by piping its crude across the desert to the Red Sea. Those supplies would be at risk if the Red Sea’s exit route were closed as well.
Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen control a long stretch of coastline near the Bab al-Mandeb and severely disrupted the waterway for much of the war in the Gaza Strip. Iran is putting pressure on the group to close the chokepoint again, Arab officials said.
“If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it,” said Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen and fellow at New America, a policy institute in Washington.
Daily Reports
Hello Trump
This blockade will either be porous or increase prices or both.
Also see Fed Study Shows Tariffs Boosted Goods Inflation by a Cumulative 3.1 Percent
By the seventh month, the tariff cost pass-through to consumers hits 100 percent.
Related Posts
April 10, 2026: March CPI a Blistering Hot 0.9 Percent Led by Gasoline Up 21 Percent
Inflation in March was a scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
On April 10, 2026, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops to Record Low in April, Consumers Blame the War
The war and resultant inflation is what forced capitulation by Trump
Tuesday April 14 at 6:00 pm tankers are transiting the Strait of Hormuz from:
Aruba
Malawai (the Rich Starry is back after a quick off-load… ??? To whom???
Curacao
Haiti
A tanker from Malta is about to enter…
General Cargo from Comoros
General cargo from Iran is just about through…
This blockade is not much of a blockade…
Of course at any moment the spoiled toddler could blow things up again for his buddy BiBi…
Or perhaps the US Navy turned them around and sent them back.
Either way, there is very little traffic in the strait. The world is not receiving the items that need to be shipped.
At this point anything is possible, but traffic is a trickle at best…
Food shortages in Asia will be horrific if this continued…
This is just Trump supporting the market while waiting for the economic impact on Iran to take hold. How many ways can you say no?
Nero fiddles as warehouses burn.
There is nothing Nero can do, is out of his hands…..
CENTCOM posted on X just 2 hours ago: “During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade”
If this was factually correct, then the Chinese ship (which they failed to mention) didn’t cross until after 10 A.M. Eastern time. It was before that. The Jerusalem Post reported it 11 hours ago, India Today reported it 9 hours ago which was pre-dawn time in the U.S.
Aljazeera says 3 ships have crossed. Whatever the case may be, CENTCOM is openly lying. It’s despicable. Goebbels would be proud.
The American public is only being informed about 0.000001% of the actual on the ground events going on during this Iran war and is being kept completely in the dark and pacified.
Trump posted that 34 ships made it through the Strait on Sunday, but the actual number was 4. https://x.com/GarrettHaake/status/2043730603506360603
Mish, while out for a run I was listening to Part of the Problem, Dave Smith’s excellent political podcast. The show has a huge audience, particularly among Millennials (Wikipedia claims it is one of the top two libertarian podcasts in the world). They had this exchange at one point:
’Who is it that you said was blogging about that?
Mike Mish Shedlock. He’s got Mish Talk. It’s a great blog.”
https://partoftheproblem.com/watch/1551
They were talking about the Iran War rather than CPI or the Fed, so maybe your posts focused on less economic topics are getting some attention and attracting listeners as well.
Maybe sa is worried about iran attacking their pipeline in reprisal for blockade.
I bet he TACOs on the straights.
If he does seize any ships, it will only be countries we can intimidate. Certainly not China. Probably not Japan, Korea, Australia.
A ship destined or flagged as a NATO member might bring him sadistic pleasure.
I can’t believe we’re planning on allowing Trump to visit China in May to speak for us! The Republican do-nothing’s have betrayed America on the grandest of stages.
It’s not just Republicans none of Congress ever shows any leadership both sides! Why change things when they are getting filthy rich through all the domestic fraud!
The “rest of the world” will neutralize the US Navy in the Gulf. This will likely happen organically, a natural process.
Meanwhile, the Europeans are arranging to send minesweepers to clean up the Gulf.
I wonder why nobody here not even mish talks about the culprit of this war problem we are in ….?
Epstein?
Epsteins handlers
MAGA voters? We talk about it a lot.
For those who need a comedic break, here is a hilarious explanation of the war
https://x.com/AwakenWithJP/status/2042730454697013330
Ron Paul’s take on this stage of the war
https://original.antiwar.com/paul/2026/04/13/blockading-the-blockade/
I’m already bored with watching the USA repeatedly defeat itself. Back to watching late 20th Century garbage on Prime.
Just wait for season 2 of “The Apprentice” where a dimwitted hillbilly tries to make it big in the White House for the second time around. I don’t want to give the ending away but he’ll be fired in 1012 days.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory…
A Cruel and Stupid BlockadeFaced with the failure of their war of aggression, the administration has fallen back on intensified economic warfare and the collective punishment of the Iranian people.
https://daniellarison.substack.com/p/a-cruel-and-stupid-blockade
It’s not just Iranians that will be suffering. The war is estimated to already cost $1 trillion for achieving nothing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/iran-war-cost-us-taxpayer-trillion-harvard.html
The disability issues will exacerbate the demographic death spiral with an even smaller labor force that is already shrinking.
And thre are many more people who will be facing food shortages due to the war and now blockade(s) in poor countries like India, Thailand, Malawi, Sudan, Somalia, etc. The message to the Third World is clear: “The US doesn’t give a damn about you. You would be better off aligning with China.”.
Bomb the hell out of them… No no don’t do that…
Sanction them hit them finically… no no don’t do that
Bring all troops home leave them alone let them terrorize whoever they want… no non don’t do that!
Send an envoy to negotiate with them … Yes they will negotiate in good faith and tell us everything we want to hear! All will be good!
Why its Tuesday, TACO Tuesday !
He was just kidding about the blockade, and about insulting the pope and the jesus pic, and the tariffs, and the war, and the persian civilization whipeout, and taking iver other countries, and the killing of innocent civilians, and having goo s shooting people in US cities, and the major economic wreckage, and the religious white nationalism, and the plutocratic strip mining of the USA, and the big beautiful national deficit, and oh yeah raping underage girls
Thats alot of winning! These TACOs really work out
The clownshow will continue until moral improves!!
For realz?
Peter Girnus
@gothburz
I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial.
There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us “the passionate minds shaping the future of finance.”
600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President.
The distance is my best work.
I am the reason these events are unrelated.
World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence.
Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated.
Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated.
Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated.
Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated.
Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard.
On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well.
The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders.
Steven Witkoff is the President’s Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President’s fraud trial.
His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded.
The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency.
Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest “complete nonsense.” Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name.
On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President’s family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President’s assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio.
Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job.
600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access.
A congressman called us the world’s most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25.
My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper.
The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family.
I am the reason these events are unrelated.
3:07 am · 12 Apr 2026
·
5.3M
Views
News from the optimistic days at the start of the cease-fire
Resuming Normal Shipping to Take 6-8 Weeks Once Middle East Stabilizes: Hapag-Lloyd
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/04/08/864956.htm
From Chris Smith at the Oil and Gas Journal:
Saudi Arabia has returned its 7-million b/d East-West crude oil pipeline to full pumping capacity. Volumes had been reduced by 700,000 b/d following attacks earlier in the Iran War. The country’s Ministry of Energy also reported restoring 300,000 b/d of production lost at shallow-water Manifa field.
The Houthis could further restrict Bab Al Mandeb. Either way, the Axis of Evil will lose patience and bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure. That will give Iran the justification to destroy more GCC infrastructure – including that Saudi pipeline. They could also target Israel’s offshore gas.
The Saudi East-West pipeline has to be very vulnerable to attack along its route from East to West, by missile or drone. Of course, that assumes it is above-ground over most of the route.
Iran has many levers it has not yet pulled. The Suez Canal is only 79 feet deep.
Or, given the convoluted logic of Israeli owned and controlled President Trump, Bab Al Mandeb could be false flagged to continue depriving Asia of critical resources.
Reportedly the blockade is applicable only to vessels visiting Iranian ports.
Even if the US blocks those ships (we’ll see what they really do to a Chinese ship), Iran will block the rest by threatening them with missiles – and using them if they need to.
There are four ships transiting Hormuz with their AIS transponder turned on right now… All Iranian flagged.
https://ship-tracker.org/marinetraffic/
Great.thanks.
It would appear to be a test to Trumps capacity to close the Strait?
Damn strange to see!
Saudi Arabia recently has been able to get its oil exports back up to their prewar level of around seven million barrels a day despite the blockage in the strategic strait by piping its crude across the desert to the Red Sea
=====
stacked in my desk under disinformation subject!
in world there are only 3 marginal l(spare capacity) players:
usa , saudi, and russia
if that was the case, PRICE WOULD NOT TRADE OVER 100$ (=paper)
and close to 150 in Asia!
alx
Not really. Spare capacity has to be available for export within 30 days and be sustainable for longer than 90 days.
Countries with spare capacities:
Saudi 2.5
UAE 0.5
Iraq, Kuwait and Iran HAD some spare capacity till the war took it out.
The US and Russia do NOT have spare capacity.
PapaDave is right, the key word is “exportable” spare capacity. As these blockades continue, I would wonder how much of the Saudi spare prduction capacity remains as exportable spare capacity. Their pipeline is maxed, so until the Strait reopens, their exportable spare capactiy is likely greatly diminished.
Thanks for that info:
Regardless; Without Iran, Qatar, Kuwaiti, the UAE and Bahrains production my back of the napkin calculations show that the world is short about ten million bbl’s per day.
That’s a lot of grease for the wheels of the global economy.
Agree. The world is short somewhere between 10 and 15 mbpd, depending on how you are measuring it, and what is happening on any given day.
That supply shortage has been offset to some degree by using up floating storage, and SPRs. But there remains a net supply shortage of 5-10 mbpd. Which means there must be a corresponding drop in consumption/demand. Some substitution is happening. But some demand is being destroyed. How much is impossible to say.
No matter how you try to figure it out, the net effect is a hit to the global economy. And higher prices.
It obviously starts in the poorest countries and moves outward and upward from there.
If 5-10 million is the consumption of those very poor countries the rest of us may well not notice because so little business is done there. Of course the people in those countries will notice and there will likely be starvation and political unrest very soon in those places.
Not just poor countries. Europe is on the verge of running out of jet fuel. No more flights.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/10/oil-rise-iran-war-ceasefire-china-factory-increase-business-latest-news-updates
The entire world seems to have forgotten that we were awash with 5 million barrels per day of excess capacity when this war was started. FSOP’s are operating all over the world now and refining capacity and transit is more of a chokepoint than actual supplies of crude and natural gas.
Those Iranian tankers have left the Persian Gulf and are being re-flagged to transport crude from elsewhere. The system is more elastic than is commonly thought IMO.
Yeah, some orange jagoff on the TV told me “boats were coming to the US to load up on our beautiful sweet crude”
Why does this guy talk like a 80 year-old baby-retard? ….boats?…beautiful crude?
He is reading off of a script written by Faux News for MAGA sycophants.
Why this guy is a 80 year-old baby-retard
Please don’t insult the baby-retards.
He knows his audience.
Think of the first maga that comes to mind, and tell me they don’t need to be talked to like a slow toddler.
Crude oil is not the largest disruption caused by this war. Crude is available from many places. Helium, sulfur, refined gasoline, diesel, jet fuel products and fertilizers are where the real supply bottlenecks are. The Persian Gulf production facilities have to be accessed and production restored now that far fewer missiles are flying around.
Qatar’s infrastructure has been significantly damaged and parts are years from recovery. Think of helium as being in a huge and structural global shortage for the next two to five years.
Just give Iran the nukes it wants and we can all return to our comfortable lives! Your family is surely embarrassed by your “crazy dad/uncle” comments.
=Just give Iran the nukes it wants and we can all ret
funny you have been living w/ Pakistan having nuclear, and=or soviet USSR for most of 20th century!
nothing happened!
i assume you are human, ,which is still debatable!
Surely, Saddam Hussein has those WMD stashed in Iraq and the world will be stabilized if we launch a war to deter him?
(Our government, media and populace don’t even bother to change their propaganda stories any more…)
China has replaced Qatari LNG with sanctioned Gazprom one.
But not Helium, that is a huge concern for China/Taiwan.
Agree.
Urea. Aluminium.
Not sure where you got that number from. The world did not have 5 mbpd of excess supply before the war. On paper, there was an estimated 1-1.5 mbpd surplus.
However:
In January and February 2026 globally, demand outstripped supply.
It was actually 4.9 mbpd, and partially from the Oil and Gas journal in articles I read several months ago and in Exxons exploration reports. The articles focused on new oil entering the markets from Argentina, Guyana, Congo, Nigeria, Brazil, the US, Russia, Iran and others. Quite a bit was from FSOP’s that represent relatively new production platforms.
I doubt they qualify under your 30/90 day criteria yet.
Thanks for all your contributions, I am learning quite a bit doing all this research and investigating various information sources.
The IEA (the same that was saying that we don’t need any new Oil and Gas project…..) was estimating 3.7 mln barrel. An average estimation from bank analysts was positioning the oversupply at 1.6mln barrel.
Thank you for the data points!
😉
In terms of whether the system is elastic and there is still an excess supply of oil, the key thing to look at is the spot price of dated Brent oil. This is not the one month futures price of oil (which is what all search engine return when you ask what the current price of oil is). The futures price is “paper” oil, these contracts won’t be settled by physical delivery. Further, the futures price can be and is being manipulated artificially lower. For example, in draw downs from the US SPR, the companies receiving the oil need to agree to repay with 1.2 barrels in the future for each barrel received now. This will make them short futures “paper” oil to cover there position. That is the net result the US government wants: depress futures prices to force selling of current inventory.
The price that refiners actually have to pay now for physical delivery of oil (and what tells you if there is excess supply) is the dated Brent price, which as I write this is $132.74, (with a recent peak of $148) vs a one one month futures price of $97.64. (Search engines don’t generally return the dated Brent price for a number of reasons including that it is usually paywalled.) So we have a huge gap now between the price of “real world” oil that refiners are taking delivery of, and “paper” oil being used by the financial markets.
Getting back to the point of capacity, the dated Brent price (real world oil) is in the range of all time highs. And it is the dated Brent price that drives what you pay for a gallon of gas at the pump. It is correct that the projection prior to the war had been for an excess of 4 million bpd. That is much less than the estimated loss of 10 million bpd. That gap is being met by inventory draw downs, which are keeping the dated Brent price from escalating even further. But that buffer will be depleted if the blockades continue more than another few weeks. In which case expect the dated Brent price to further soar (along with what you pay at the pump). It will be a fair while before we return to the scenario of excess oil supply.
Thank you! Excellent to collect multiple sources of data points. It seems correct that the global shortage if Hormuz stays closed is between 7 & 10 million bbd.
WORDPRESS NOTE: Posts loose formatting, specifically “bullets” and “underlining” after refresh
Taco’s Razor is a philosophical principle that suggest making the decision that results in the worst of all possible outcomes when faced with a situation that has a multitude of choices that would result in better outcomes.
Hence — prices will rise and supplies will be disrupted and the blockhead blockade will be ineffective and porous.
The East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia can deliver up to 7mln barrels but the choke point is the Yanbu port. Yanbu port on the Red Sea could export only 5.5mln of barrels per day. Am I wrong?
Necessity is the mother of invention and I would not be surprised to see some creative loading methods employed to avoid shut-ins.
From Wikipedia (so I am not sure if it is reliable): Yanbu port’s two terminals, Yanbu North and Yanbu South, have a nominal loading capacity of about 4.5 million BPD, but a tested actual capacity of about 4 million BPD. In 2026, consultancy Vortexa estimated that in wartime conditions, capacity would be about 3 million BPD
it is all bs
jut see price of oil, esp physical markets
Your number’s are correct. Export capacity close to 5 mbpd.
The East-West pipeline burning as we speak. So zero barrel is going through it today.
Link? Did they hit the pipeline or a pumping station?
It was hit a pump station. It seems that they lost very little production and it has already been repaired (if you are referring to the drone attack that happen 3-4 days ago)
The end of the Regime is nigh Here’s an excellent analysis!
But regime change was given as the reason to go to war, by Trump. Let’s not move the goalposts just to call this a success. Which, as an aside, it if course is not even againts moved goal posts. From the fact that Iran can close the straight of hormuz, their military capacity is clearly not at 0 either.
Let’s move those goal posts a bit more shall we? Oil under 200 USD / barrel is a win perhaps? Medals all around?
Reasons, smeasons! All that counts are the end results.
Reasons, smeasons as the reason to go to war and even bomb school girls. I guess that sums op MAGA nicely.
Jojo: boy, bot, girl or circus clown?
Spoken like a robber.
I read that article earlier tonight on ZH. There are unconfirmed reports that China will test the blockade. The U.S. could warn them that they have a choice, pass through and get your oil, but pay an incremental financial penalty for each ship that passes. No shots are fired, but a high economic price is paid instead. Then the CCP would have to decide which outcome is worse for them.
The following is a list I compiled. Any one of them could have a negative reciprocated effect with rare earth minerals, etc. Before I did some reading on what the U.S. options were, I didn’t know we had so many levers of power available to try and avoid a kinetic war.
——————————————
The Insurance “Kill Switch”: Most of the world’s maritime trade relies on the “International Group of P&I Clubs” for insurance. If a ship isn’t insured, it generally cannot enter any major port.
Reinsurance Nationalization: The U.S. has already doubled its sovereign maritime reinsurance facility to $40 billion (via firms like Chubb and Travelers).
The Penalty: The U.S. can mandate that any ship that has paid an “Iranian transit fee” or carried Iranian oil is permanently barred from this Western insurance pool.
The Result: China would have to self-insure every vessel. If a state-flagged Chinese tanker has an accident or oil spill without Western P&I cover, China would be liable for hundreds of billions in damages, a risk even their state banks are hesitant to take.
Financial Derisking: Delisting companies from the NYSE or Nasdaq doesn’t just hurt the companies; it drains billions in capital from the Chinese economy. If the U.S. continues to move down this list, it signals to global investors that China is no longer a “safe” place for Western capital, potentially triggering a massive flight of investment.
Entity List Expansion: Blacklist specific Chinese shipping companies and insurers involved in the transit, barring them from using U.S. ports or services.
Targeted Tech Ban: Halt the export of specialized sub-components (like high-end sensors or aviation parts) to a pre-selected Chinese industrial sector.
Financial “Grey-Listing”: Issue a formal Treasury warning against three major Chinese banks, effectively making it risky for Western firms to clear USD transactions through them.
Delisting Tier 1: Formally move to delist the state-owned energy companies (e.g., CNOOC or Sinopec) from U.S. exchanges under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act.
Biosecure Act Execution: Trigger the immediate cancellation of all federal contracts with Chinese biotech firms (BCOCs), hitting China’s medical and pharmaceutical exports.
Tariff Ratchet (50%): Activate the proposed 50% “Secondary Support” tariffs on all Chinese-made electric vehicles and battery components.
SWIFT Access Restriction: Cut off the smaller, regional Chinese banks used for Iranian oil payments from the SWIFT messaging system.
Equity Investment Ban: Use the COINS Act to prohibit all U.S. persons/funds from holding debt or equity in any Chinese company on the Department of War’s “1260H List.”
Visa Revocation: Cancel the visas of executives and board members of the companies responsible for the blockade-running.
The “Nuclear” Financial Option: Fully sanction a “Big Four” Chinese state bank (like ICBC), essentially severing it from the global dollar-clearing system.
we dont need to read all this.
do shorter.
This gibberish doesn’t change the fact that the USA is an empire in decline and China is a rising economic super power.
I think China is at the point where they can tell the USA to f— off without serious consequence.
since when are the global oil markets going to listen to Trump’s insurance demands? Hint think sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil
What China Could Do (Realistic Countermeasures)China has been preparing for exactly this scenario for years.
A. Build parallel financial systems
B. Develop alternative insurance ecosystem
C. “Shadow fleet” expansion
China could replicate this at much larger scale
D. Diversify trade routes and partners
E. Domestic economic rebalancing
F. Strategic retaliationChina has leverage too:
Excellent analysis! Thanks.
Yeah, that’s the new talking point that surfaced yesterday. “they regime fractured itself… there is nobody in charge… the factions are fighting… disarray…” People make up all sorts of evidence-free narratives out of thin air to justify they beliefs and desires.
If they survive, they have won.
Earlier today, I was surprised listening to lib Richard Haas on BBC say he would have started the blockade 3 weeks ago!
The IRGC can’t pay its people with no revenues coming in. Economic is going to be the final death blow for the Iranian Regime!
Stay the course Trump! Ignore protestations from weak hands like Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is our ally in this mess! They hate Iran just like your and Israels theocracies do. Our job is to get production on line and their revenues restored. The oil and gas fields under the Persian Gulf are free flowing and when Qatar, Kuwait and the Saudis are producing, the gas and oil from Irans fields migrates southeast to our allies. Sheesh you are clueless!
Go back to digging dirt on the farm.
=The IRGC can’t pay its people with no revenues coming in
you are uneducated id11iot! !!
Iran has local currency based economy. not $ based!
unless there is shortage of paper,. they are fine!
but inflation is concern!
alx
ps
btw, same for Russian economy, you 404bots still cant get facts from 101 economics book! it is in 1st subsection.
you morons are Amazingly stupid!
=. Economic is going to be the final death blow for the Iranian Regime!
sure. !!
they are good friends w/ Russia having sea border, and just simple land route across other country north-south path from russia!
and they are v.v..v. good friends w/ China biggest industrial might on earth.
try harder , mor1on
alx
The WSJ editorial board said the same silly thing yesterday.
Then I am in good company!
I observed and reported on the Elpis transit of Hormuz yesterday at 9:45am EDT. The cargo was a chemical/oil listed and originated from Iran’s port of Bushehr. The ship cleared Hormuz by 11:30 and entered the Gulf of Oman.
This was verified via its AIS beacon. At the moment two tankers are inbound and a bulk carrier is exiting:
Peace Gulf. (oil/chemical)
Galaxy Gas (LPG/chemical)
Manali (bulk carrier)
I estimate that ten ships passed through the Strait. Do not misconstrue this with normal shipping rates of 100 per day, but there is no apparent military blockade in effect. Insurance unavailability appears to continue to be the predominant deterrent.
The Rich Starry has cleared the Strait and entered the Gulf of Oman as mentioned..
3 Tankers are starting to load in Persian Gulf ports in Saudi Arabia, Qatar is not loading at Ras Laffan as of 2:30 am EDT, the UAE ports in the Gulf of Oman are busy. Bahrain is loading the tanker Sea Wolf, Iraq has been loading an average of 4 tankers per day.
The FSOP’s located offshore in South Pars have not offloaded anything since the war started and are probably swollen with inventory like ticks on a coon hound.
Saudi Arabias Red Sea ports are full of standard tankers and VLCC’s.
Iran shows no AIS beaconed tankers loading at Kharg or Lavan Islands. An asphalt/bitumen tanker just left Iran and is entering Hormuz from Bandar Abbas at 3:30 am EDT.
Frosty, the predominant deterrent is not lack of insurance. That’s secondary. The predominant deterrent is that Iran will shoot at and potentially destroy those ships it doesn’t approve of – which is most of them.
Do markets really think things have improved? This ceasefire is nothing more than the US giving up on opening the strait. Now that we’ve surrendered, Iran could keep it closed for as long as China’s oil reserves last. Their reserves are estimated at 100-140 days, but I have to wonder, if China welded people shut inside their apartments during Covid, they could certainly curb demand in more orderly fashion than anyone else to stretch those reserves. It’s certainly in their interest to do so. The West will suffer. China will be fine. Russia will be fine. North Korea will be fine. The CRINK alliance is well positioned. Western markets are the ones who need the oil to flow.
The headlines about the US trying to get China to pressure Iran to open the strait are hilarious. Like, does our government really not know the plan? Iran will keep it closed until China’s reserves are depleted, at which point China will pressure the US to accept terms favorable to Iran. The Trump admin is so embarassing and dangerously stupid. We are going to hell in a handcart.
The rally on this nonsense has me thinking about that Mark Twain quote, “Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it.”
Iran never blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The insurance industry did in response to Trump/Israel military activities. The status of the insurers is not known by me at this point but tankers are starting to transit the Strait and re-establishing risk ratings.
The market will tell us if shipping is getting safer through underwriting of risk. There are other ways of charging shippers than tolls.
Iran had effectively blocked by firing missiles at unapproved ships that tried to transit the strait. There were multiple ships set ablaze. That’s why the insurers wouldn’t insure the ships.
Amen.
Not a day has passed without ships passing.
It’s just quite a bit more controlled.
No “innocent passage” in Iran’s coastal waters for belligerants.
In accordance with Maritime Conventions.
A blockade, on the other hand, is an act of war and a transgression of international law and Maritime Conventions.