The war and resultant inflation is what forced capitulation by Trump. 
The overall index is a record low 47.6.
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for April 2026.
Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices. Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. Note that 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated. [Mish: OK when is that?]
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025 (see chart, black dashed line and black circle). The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.4% this month, the highest reading since November 2025. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
The expectations index is a record low 46.1.
University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations Percent
- One Year Ahead: 4.8 percent
- One Year Ahead 3-Month Moving Average: 4.0 percent
- Five Year Ahead: 3.4 percent
- Five Year Ahead 3-Month Moving Average: 3.3 percent
The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent.
Trump’s Negotiation Capitulation
Trump ran on campaign promises to cut inflation, reduce energy prices in half, and no more wars.
Trump was a star failure on all counts.
This is what forced a backdown by Trump in negotiations with Iran.
Trump’s Energy Pledge
- Clip 1: With the Trump economic plan, we will will cut your energy prices in half within – lock it down – you can get get very angry at me if we don’t do it – but within 12 months your energy prices will be cut in half.
- Clip 2: My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office.
- Clip 3: Number one, your energy bill within 12 months will be cut in half. That’s my pledge all over the country. To farmers, that’s my pledge all over the country.
- Clip 4: If you vote for me, I will cut your energy and electricity in half within 12 months. We’re gonna cut them down.
- Clip 5: And under my plan we will cut energy and electricity in half within 12 months. And that means your homes too.
- Clip 6: I will cut your energy and electricity prices in half. 50 percent. Five O, within 12 months of taking office.
- Clip 7. My plan will cut energy prices in half within 12 months. We’re gonna have energy prices for businesses, but in my opinion maybe even more importantly for the average household by 12 months from January 20th which is the day we go into office.
- Clip 8: I will cut the price of energy and electricity in half. Ready? 12 months from January 20, your electric bill, including cars, air conditioners, heating, everything. Your total electric bill will be fifty, five o, fifty percent less. We’re gonna cut it in half.
- Clip 9: And I will cut energy and electricity prices in half within 12 months of taking office. Fifty percent.
- Clip 10: The pledge that I am making now, and we’ve done this a little bit over the last month or so, we are going to bring energy down by 50 percent, five o percent, fifty percent within 12 months from January 20.
Portions of those clips are guaranteed to make some great campaign ads for the midterm elections.
Democrats have one easy task in November. All they have to do is run against Trump.
Related Posts
April 9, 2026: Inflation Has Been Above the Fed’s Target for 5 Straight Years
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has been above 2 percent since March of 2021.
On March 17, 2026 I noted Six Rules Suggest the Fed Should Not Be Cutting Interest Rates
Nothing changed for the better today.
Finally, on March 30, 2026, I noted Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.
Powell’s warning was aimed straight at Trump.
April 10, 2026: March CPI a Blistering Hot 0.9 Percent Led by Gasoline Up 21 Percent
Inflation in March was a scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
I’m a consumer.
I blame the US Congress that authorizes the expenditures of money they don’t have.
(WSJ) – Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas, according to American officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments.
Probably gonna get a lot worse. Trump cant get out the war until bibi is happy. Bibi seems not to want to stop. Now world powers wants to help trump pressure the strait to open. Iran may want to keep it closed to enough of the world economies hurt enough for them to want to “ help” trump.
Be hard for those tariffs to pay for the tax cuts to the wealthy once there is no world economy.
On the other hand trump mat be a five level chess genius. I mean what nation would not up their green energy after this mess.
.
Countries like Japan, Korea, France, and others are following Trump’s advice to “get their own oil”. They are negotiating with Iran, Russia and China to buy oil and/or refined products that are no longer sanctioned.
Trump has succeeded in pushing our allies to make deals with our enemies.
Two months ago, Iran and Russia were getting $50/barrel of oil. Now they are getting $100+.
Two months ago the strait was open. Today it is mostly closed, except for ships that Iran will allow through, while also collecting toll money.
This war has been a disaster for the US. The war has also been a disaster for our allies, who were not even consulted about it. It’s been a win for China, Russia and Iran.
Of note: China exported a record number of EVs last month as demand for them has skyrocketed because of expected fuel shortages.
Yup
Consumer sentiment never recovered from COVID. The depths it has sunken indicates a recession should have started. The US economy may also be facing a generational change. The population distribution is pyramidal for ages above 50 years old. Below those ages the distribution is fairly uniform. It’s tough for a debt based economy to thrive when fewer people are able to repay that debt or take out loans.
It’s going to collapse, slow at first, then all of the sudden.
Fox Puts Happy Face On Inflation: Take Out Rising Gas Prices And It’s Not Bad!
Stuart Varney gets an A+ on spewing Trump propaganda.
Walk off some of that piggy fat, trumplings!
– Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month. > The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) in April 2025 was at “52.20” The CSI in April 2026 was at “47.60” for a year over year decline of 8.81%.
– A decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict. > I get it, so 11% for one month, that had no effect on the Y over Y or even Monthly Data for that matter.
– currently about 9% below a year ago. > Now which Month is this referring to? Is this simply stating the Y over Y? Where did this come from and why?
– Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment. > So what happens during every recession, a wider than normal set of occurrences and of financial and other set backs. Same story different time. Inflation expectations anyone? That follows down times, and over spent economies.
– One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20%. > (See all above)
– Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%. (See all above)
– Year-ahead inflation expectations > Speculations suggest?
Interesting. Consumers are already upset despite the US being one of the least impacted countries economically due to the war on Iran. However, the effects are about to get worse.
The world has been managing the loss of 10+ million barrels per day of oil by using up all the 200 million barrels of stranded Russian and Venezuelan oil in sanctioned tankers around the world. That’s all gone now. The world is also releasing 400 million barrels from SPRs . The US portion of this is 172 million barrels and we have released 45 mb of that already.
Soon we will have used up all the world’s available storage. Then the SHTF. Prices will have to rise much higher to crush demand. The US consumer has yet to be fully impacted.
Question Papa, I have a feeling this could hit us hard, come Winter. As Crude will stay elevated I assume? This past Winter I was forced to use some diesel for 1 1/2 days to accommodate. Will this also affect diesel, because I would possibly store up on some perhaps?
Thank you in advance.
Winter is a long time away. Hard to predict.
However, the longer the strait stays restricted, the higher prices for all oil products will go.
Regarding stocking up, I imagine a lot of people are thinking the same thing. If you are ordering a delivery, you might have a long wait.
It seems likely that the strait is not going to be back to normal for a long time, even in the best case scenario. A major issue is mines. Apparently Iran can not actually locate all of the mines which it placed in the strait. The mines were placed haphazardly and in a way which allows them to drift from their original position. Both the US and Iran lack the minesweeping capabilities to address the problem. The UK and Japan have been approached by the US to see if they can provide their modern minsweepers for the task of clearing the strait. Best estimate is that once it is guaranteed that the shooting is over, and if the weather cooperates, it could take at least 2 months and perhaps upto 6 months for the strait to be swept and considered free of mines. No insurer is going to provide coverage until this happens. So the extreme backwardation of the oil futures curve seems bizarre to me–either most traders just aren’t considering the real world problems like mine clearance, or governments are manipulating futures pricing to try to force selling of inventory. I’m expecting oil product prices to remain high for much longer than the futures market seems to think.
Now the UK and Japan are gonna want their cut!!!
They will start to complain once they cant get any products on the shelf.
Iran has trump by the balls and wont open the strait until enough world militaries want to intervene. But if the dont have any strategic reserve left. .
All empires die the same way. They go broke.
I find it entertaining that the Iranians have a better strategy for beating trump in the midterms than the democrats do!
We might have to thank the Iranians one day for putting the orange moron back in his cage
How soon before Congress gives out “economic stimulus” checks like they did in 2001 and 2008 just before the financial systems crashed? That’s when you need to start worrying as it’s the surest sign of impending doom.
If people can’t afford to borrow to keep the debt cycle going, Congress has no problem borrowing on behalf of them. Who cares if we add another few trillion to the national debt over the next year? Who cares if a loaf of bread will soon cost $20?
Congress just prints out money out of thin air…
If I were leading the Dems, I would simply say nothing until November and bury the opposition. Could be the easiest win they have had in a long time. Just let the other half of the Uni-party run that mouth 24/7. No one say a word. Try and put up someone with some semblance of decency politically and you will probably win. Vance will get skewered too, sitting back and watching all of this happen in silence. Can the Dems just sit on their hands until Nov? Keep all the receipts? Present a moderate candidate? That is a lot to ask lol.
Trump’s 2024 campaign ads are the Dems campaign ads for 2026.”My promise to farmers and all Americans, I will cut your energy prices by 50% in the first 12 months, if I don’t you can be VERY angry with me!”
That appears to pretty much be Team D strategy. Let Trump be Trump, let Trump make an ass of himself.
Cynical, but it works.
I would say make it about the republican political machine. Not to many republicans are standing up. So they all are complicate.
‘Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.’
-Napoleon Bonaparte
Obviously, to myself and the missus is; for the dems to kick the culture war in the “sea You NExt Tuesday” by declaring that the LGBT et al are forever abandoned by their party!!!!
Middle Americas religiosity zealotry will re join the free she-aht party!
Trump has preformed the precedent, hasn’t he?
Tell them what they want to hear, get elected 🙄
Then do whatever you want?
Sheese, sooooooo easy.
No, you’re all correct, the labgt faction isn’t nearly enough!
Toss in any religion or color of folks that the current tards don’t like too.
Did I miss any of the bigoted folks list of folks we hate “just because”
Thanks for your patience and understanding 🙏🏼
How does Trump not continue to smell like a Rat by the Midterms? When some voters are already— Turning up their Noses— when seeing prices at the Pumps?
I think they hate brown people enough to passively tolerate him genociding 93MM brown people. Isn’t it as simple as that?
They’ll jihad over gas and egg prices though.
We’re left with completely wiping out the IRGC.
War is good for business.
Not according to jabba the hut
Mish did you see the political breakdown on the inflation expectations? What have those Republicans been smoking the past year?
Trumpstien jenkem.
its been that way for a decade or more.
your views on the economy or more contingent on how you view the political party that holds the presidency.
and frankly that is the real issue. Americans have a hard time dealing with reality because we are subjected to our political bias with the corresponding propaganda enhancing it.
there are 2 numbers that “consumers” look at for their daily barometer of economic conditions, aka consumer sentiment. they align with the k-shaped economy.
gas prices –which have giant signs that show the general sentiment one side views, driving pessimism
stock market–mentioned daily on all news sources, the benefactors of inflation, generally happy but also don’t like giving up any of their passive wealth on costlier goods like gas
stock market – near all-time highs
gas prices–skyrocketed
The Democrats should indeed make this all about Trump and his failures. And yet, what headline do I read today but “Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election” stating she knows “what the job is, and what it requires,” while emphasizing that “the status quo is not working” for many Americans. Do the Democrats really want to turn the discussion into comparing the current failed administration with the previous failed Biden administration? There has to be a better strategy than that.
Anybody that couldn’t beat Trumpstien has no business running for any office.
A ham sandwich
No. She’s as close to the Israelis as Trump is.
We need new people.
Her husband’s Jewish….SMH
Nobody wants Kamala to run, including Democrats. You should be paying attention to state primaries now, not headlines about national elections 2+ years off. Watch primaries to see what Democrat voters are actually choosing.
But what about who’s turn it is?
I think newsom is about the best option. Least he seems to understand the bigger picture.
Well, give the guy a break. He’s not real good with percentages. You remember when he was going to cut prescriptions prices by 1000%? Hahaha!