The world wants an end to this madness, especially Mideast nations, except Israel.
Oil futures were surging last night but fell back to flat. The probable reason the surge didn’t stick is the region’s mediators.
Push for a New Ceasefire
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran War Mediators Push for Traction on a New Ceasefire
Regional powers worry about the economy and the risk of escalation, but face the challenge of getting the combatants on board.
Mediators were working to push the U.S. and Iran into a new ceasefire Monday, fearful the two foes could settle into a pattern where they keep conflict below the level of all-out war but disrupt regional economies indefinitely and run the risk of a miscalculation that escalates the fighting.
The efforts come after the U.S. carried out a ninth straight night of attacks, Iran retaliated against Arab allies including Kuwait and Bahrain, and another vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a projectile that started a fire and led the crew to abandon ship.
Traffic in the strait remains crippled, with an average of 10 ships a day crossing Friday through Sunday, most via the route controlled by Iran, according to ship tracker Kpler.
Compounding the risks, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia on Monday announced a blockade of Saudi shipping amid a standoff with the kingdom. Saudi Arabia and shipping security services are taking the threat seriously, as it could cut off the Red Sea route the kingdom is using to ship oil around the blockade in Hormuz.
Qatar has floated the idea of a 10-day ceasefire and an end to restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to cool tension, mediators said. It wasn’t clear whether either side was ready to accept a new halt to the fighting after the preliminary peace deal they signed in mid-June collapsed earlier this month, they said.
Other proposals for a temporary ceasefire were also presented to Iran in recent days, but Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hasn’t responded to them, some of the mediators said.
Diplomats are in a tough spot given the mutually exclusive demands of the U.S. and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran argues that the memorandum of understanding it signed with President Trump a month ago gives it the right to administer the reopening of the waterway. The U.S., meanwhile, has been helping ships use a channel outside Iran’s oversight that runs along the coast of Oman.
“Considering the continued absence of the Iranian supreme leader and Iranian insistence to not withdraw in any manner from the management of the Strait of Hormuz, the mediation has become nearly an impossible task,” said Umer Karim, a researcher on Gulf security at University of Birmingham.
The flow of energy out of the Persian Gulf continued to shrink, said Steve Gordon, global head of maritime data provider Clarksons Research. An average of 1.5 million barrels a day of crude oil passed through the strait over the past week, down from 10 million barrels a day in early July and 15 million barrels a day before the conflict, he said.
“If you look at the attack maps, locations are all over the place. Nowhere is safe,” said Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo at broker Marsh.
The price of insurance has risen, with ships taking the Iranian route typically getting charged less and those choosing the Omani route charged more. “It’s ironic, but this is the reality of things,” Baker said.
Please Recall
Trump got his followers to spend a decade screaming NO MIDEAST WARS, and spend 2024 accusing Kamala of planning to start one if she won.
Then Trump started a new Middle East war with Netanyahu, and instantly got most of them to cheer it, and pretend it was the plan all along.
Trump’s Stupid Bravado on Display
Truth Social: Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over! This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Jul 20, 2026, 10:41 AM
Please note there would be no US military dead if Trump did not start this.
Nearly All Up to Trump
This is nearly all up to Trump. The strait was in a position to be fully open for a mere $1-2 million per ship fee to Iran.
Trump got in the way, demanding 20 percent of cargo to be the “Guardian Angel of the Strait”.
Trump changed the 20 percent fee to similar investments in the US, an equally stupid idea.
Of course, before Trump started this idiotic war, there was no fee at all. Iran even agreed to the deal Obama had.
De-Escalation Mideast Math
I say it’s nearly all up to Trump because a stubborn Trump will demand some token he can brag about. But the key piece is Trump will have to give Iran control of the strait, perhaps in writing.
See how hard Trump made matters on himself?
In theory this is easy. Ships just pay Iran the fee. Why would they try to avoid this anyway?
Iran wants $1 or $2 million on a $150 million load. That’s 1.3 percent. Trump wants $30 million for safe passage that he cannot even guarantee.
Q: So, what can Iran give Trump?
A: How about improved nuclear inspections?
Something along those lines.
Unfortunately, Trump has poisoned the effort so many times with lies and threats, Iran may be reluctant to cede anything.
Alternate De-Escalation Math
If every ship would just start paying Iran $1 or $2 million, then Iran would stop attacking them.
Duh!
Oil traffic would pick up and the tit-for-tat retaliations would grind to a halt.
Whether or not an agreement was in writing, as soon as ships stop trying to evade Iran’s fee, the war would end.
Trump would still have to agree with this option.
Current Mideast Math
An average of 1.5 million barrels a day of crude oil passed through the strait over the past week, down from 10 million barrels a day in early July and 15 million barrels a day before the conflict.
Traffic is ten percent of what it was before Trump started the war. Oil prices are rising again.
Yemen is threatening to block alternate means of avoiding the strait.
The AAA average gasoline price topped $4.00 today as expected in this corner, albeit barely.
Midterm elections are coming up. Trump needs a victory. The MOU provided one.
But Trump always wants more. Always. In addition, Israel and the warmongers have been manipulating Trump.
In this regard, Trump is easy. His petty vindictiveness is what drew him into this Mideast trap in the first place.
So do we stay on the current path or will it be one of my two de-escalation paths?
Related Posts
July 18, 2026: Trump’s Foolish Escalation in Iran Results in Two More Dead U.S. Troops
Tump had a golden opportunity to declare victory and move on. He chose unwisely.
July 19, 2026: Hello America, the Price of Gasoline Tops $4.00 Tomorrow
July 19, 2026: Trump Defends the Iran War, Another US Death, Trump Says It’s a Shame
There’s another verified US death today. Expect more.
To repeat: Tump had a golden opportunity to declare victory and move on. He chose unwisely.
Easy to forget that Trump did try to ‘sell’ the MOU, even talking about a global depression if Hormuz was not opened.Clearly, his handlers/pollsters realized that, politically, it wasn’t good for Trump, so back to some version of war. More US casualties will only cement this turn to war. Realistically, I don’t see anything changing this before the election. Hopefully I’m missing something.
This is a rather long bigger picture article to show that the issues in play are not simply the price of oil. You’re welcome.
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Gatestone? You might as well just quote straight from AIPAC.
Game on Iranian Regime!
History has shown us that attempting to take over Iran by military force is a fool’s errand.
From Rome’s defeated legions and the unmatched forces of Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan, to the massive campaigns of the Ottoman Empire, the British and Russian “spheres of influence,” the 1941 Anglo-Soviet occupation, and Saddam Hussein in 1980—every external power has underestimated Iranian resilience.
Beyond its millennia-old cultural identity, Iran is protected by a natural fortress. Its geography—defined by the rugged Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges and vast high-altitude deserts—makes it a logistical death trap for foreign militaries.
History leaves a clear warning to any modern superpower: you can launch a strike against Iran, but conquering it is historically impossible.
Foreign powers operate on four-year election cycles or decade-long military doctrines. Iran plays the long game—a game measured in thousands of years. You cannot conquer a nation that outlives empires for a living.
WHY do I have to keep telling dumb people like yourself that we are NOT fighting against the country of Iran or the common people of Iran. We are fighting against the IRANIAN REGIME, which is a much smaller entity that in total comprises maybe 20-25% of the population of the country of Iran.
Were we to move boots on the ground into the country, we would get much serious assistance and cooperation from all the common people of Iran who want to free themselves form the yoke of the IRANIAN REGIME!
Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya… we were told the same thing. How’d all of those work out?
You’re not educating anyone — you’re repeating a strategy with a 0-3 record and calling the skeptics dumb.
You don’t HAVE to promote a losing strategy, you choose to. You continue to do that thing Mark Twain said about removing all doubt.
Bigger picture, we are fighting against Islam itself.
So when are we invading Saudi Arabia?
I would be happy if we closed every Mosque and banned the Quran in the US. Freedom of religion does have limits. Taking over the US government is one of them.
LOL. Kudlow was the “expert” who predicted in 2003 that once US controls Iraq, oil price would go down to $10.
Five years later, it went up to $147.
Tell us how many bad predictions YOU Have made over the past 25 years. I bet the total numbers in the thousands.
The more you post, the more foolish you look.
Yes, the US can kill as many Iranian schoolgirls as we want, but the Iranians have no right to retaliate, or especially kill any uniformed US soldiers attacking its country. Gotcha.
Schools bombed by USIS: 763 – by Iran: 0
Universities bombed by USIS: 30 – by Iran: 0
Libraries bombed by USIS: 55 – by Iran: 0
Hospitals* bombed by USIS: 322 – by Iran: 0
(incl. medical centers, cancer clinics etc.)
Utterly cowardly, despicable, inhuman and satanic.
From a game-theoretic point of view, Trump’s stupidity has created a situation where Iran has no reason to trust any agreement or pledge by the US. Given this, Iran’s best (“mixed Nash”) strategy is not to give up its nuclear weapon aspirations, try to regionalize the conflict as much as possible, use the threat of damage to the US and global economy as a constant bargaining chip, and to NEVER sign the kind of sweeping resolution and peace agreement that Trump is desperately looking for.
Let us never forget that as long as the Chief Pedophile of the United States is attacking Iran, he keeps any mention of the million times he is in the Epstein files out of the news. He also stops the Mossad from releasing their blackmail as long as he does their work. He is a treasonous traitor and should be impeached, arrested and tried.
not only has trump the midterms but bibi the butcher also has elections to contend
with, approval ratings in the low 30s, 61% do not want him on the ballot but says he
intends to run, but with little to show so far for this incursion maybe a jail sentence awaits
the piece of shit that he is if not elected, also elections in russia in a month or so should get very
interesting from here on unfortunately. depending on the outcome of these 3
the SHTF moment could be upon us does not look good going into years end
Nutandyahoo is very shrewd, he will find a way to provoke a war, probably with Iran, to use emergency powers and keep himself in office
If I’m Iran, at an absolute minimum I would insist on getting the frozen funds that the US promised upon signing the MOU before agreeing to anything else. Iran signed the MOU and then the US said for the first time “we will let you have your money back only if you spend it on US goods”, which Iran rejected. Why would Iran do another deal with the US before getting what they were promised upon signing the last deal?
For over a century, Britain, Russia, and the United States have meddled in Iran, leaving a deep distrust of foreign powers. The U.S. backed Iraq in the 1980s to weaken Iran, fueling a war that killed hundreds of thousands and ultimately strengthened Saddam Hussein.
Without a viable proxy or internal Iranian faction to work with, the U.S. is stuck with a long‑running mess — one made worse by Trump’s overconfident approach and limited understanding of the region.
as noted before good read here: https://macmillan.yale.edu/middleeast/iran/publications/iran-modern-history
The United States can not allow Iran to have any control over the Strait of Hormuz. To do so gives Iran real, long-term leverage. That leverage can be used to force the US to allow Iran to sell its own oil on world markets, even in US dollars. Iran has significant oil and natural gas reserves. Significant enough to put downward pressure on oil and gas prices. The US must keep prices high enough to make fracking profitable, but low enough to keep alternatives off the market. Adding Iran, Venezuela and Russia to world markets could cause the collapse of US production.
Gee, should have thought of that before attacking Iran at the behest of Israel.
…or…Iran could stop committing WAR crimes by attacking civilian shipping, but that goes against Iranian propaganda
Doesn’t have to be ‘or’. Could be ‘and’. How about US stops attacking Iran. And Iran stops attacking international shipping, but requires a small fee for safe passage?
It’s possibly too apply a “reparations” fee to shipping for some theoretical cost of the war. But for how long?
Make it too painful and alternatives will be found.
Good thing that the United States never ever ever attacks schools, hospitals or fishing boats.
Sooner or later all of the Middle Eastern Nations have to recognize that the US and Israel are the source of most of the war and violence since Balfour in 1913.
It would nor surprise me to see Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Qatar, the UAE and a host of other nations affected by the constant wars to unite and kick the US and Israel out of the region.
No one is happy with the current chaos that Trump and Nut-n-Yahoo have created except the Israeli exterminators…
Frosty spittin’ facts and logic
Israel did not exist until its rebirth in 1948, I doubt they were sourcing much violence before becoming a nation again.
Are you completely unfamiliar with The Balfour Declaration of November 2, 1917? That is when the meddling started and the Palestinian and Ottoman Empire disenfranchisement started.
(Date clarified to correct my earlier typo…)
“It would nor surprise me to seePakistan, India, China, Russia, Qatar, the UAE and a host of other nations affected by the constant wars to unite and kick the US and Israel out of the region.”
Won’t happen. Their rulers like their western bank accounts, their western investments, their western trophy properties, their shiny western toys.
You can leave India out of that! Not only is it now ruled by a pro-US right-wing party, the government is full of wimps who meekly accept any kind of ill-treatment by their US masters.
We are no longer in old times for India. Indira Gandhi was a woman, but she was the one who had the balls to stand up to the US. The current crop is full of wimps.
Bibi has the bayonet to Trump’s back…he’s boxed in, full stop.
There will be NO deal, of any kind…boots on the ground, incoming.
Would he rather risks more American lives than getting just get the CIA operatives to take out that ONE person who is holding the bayonet to his back? Surely the US has not gotten that weak and incapable?
meanwhile: PLA scientists propose a plan to destroy US carrier groups from 3,000km away China’s military proposes a strategy to attack out-of-reach American military assets as distance becomes a shield
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3355897/pla-scientists-propose-plan-destroy-us-carrier-groups-3000km-away
The Grayzone’s Max Blumenthal meets Mostafa Khoshcheshm, one of Iran’s most connected and prolific analysts and journalists, to discuss the next phase of the US-Israeli war on the country, and why he thinks Iran will emerge as a regional power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75Tj5ZIlj90
Don’t care at all, Iran leadership needed to be removed 50 years ago.
To what law or right do you attribute this to be the USA’s job to accomplish?
Or do laws and things like that mean nothing in this situation? Help me understand your line of thinking here.
This will be news to you obviously, but Iran’s leadership 50 years ago was in fact removed. Iran had a revolution when the people rose up and overthrew the hated US-installed Shah.
SOME people rose up. The majority did nothing and now suffer the consequences of going along.
same for N Korea?
we tried that once 75 years ago
The Shah of Iran, the previous puppet government installed by the US, was deposed in 1979.
50 years ago was the rule of the Shah of Iran. That Iranian leadership was removed 47 years ago.
Check your goddamn history before spouting your stupid mouth. We have enough ignorance in America already.
The last time the US did that, their puppet Shah of Iran’s cruel regime lasted only 26 years. This Iranian regime has outlasted the Shah’s puppet. 47 years now, so that tells you something. US installed puppets do not last long. Just long enough to meet the American corporate interests. Afghanistan is an example. Iraq is another … and I don’t know what the heck govt they have left over there after deposing Saddam. They didn’t care whether the Iraqis got their ‘democracy’ or not.
What is for sure, the Americans will destroy the country and leave it in ruins after fleecing it and hollowing out the land of all its natural resources. This is the real America.
Totally agree on Trump’s craziness, but I have to point out one thing. This is the second Mish post in a row that leads with a pic of women supposedly walking in Iran, unescorted, and not wearing their head scarves. I believe they are staged, to subtly portray Muslim society as more tolerant of women’s freedom than is really the case. They are probably staged.
Another explanation would be: while the regime has not changed, it has been knocked down. The hardliners have a higher priority, currently. Trying to stay alive.
It got knocked down…
But it got up again…
You never gonna keep them down…
What were you expecting, Mario Tricoci?
headscarves went away several years ago, they gave up on enforcing it, it made them look bad.
if you knew anything about Iran, you would know that.
drinking alcohol in your home still gets you jail time, since you’re soooo concerned about their freedoms.
Headscarves “went away”? What percent of women don’t wear them in public now? 0.1%?
O goodie. Another internet expert on Persia.
It’s not about “Persia.” It’s about the threat of creeping Sharia. Islam is an intolerant dictatorial form of government masquerading as a religion.
You’re the one claiming that a photo coming from Iran is a psy-op. Which it isn’t.
Anyway, when are we invading Saudi Arabia?
Why do you care?
Of course, you care so passionately for women’s rights.
Why not ask people there how they prefer to live? Who died and made you The Defender Of Women?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/09/13/the-other-afghan-women
https://annebonnypirate.org/2021/08/17/afghanistan-the-end-of-the-occupation/
Why bother with another ceasefire? The U.S. CAN’T be trusted ever. They have broken many treaties over the years. So Iran wants to look foolish and humiliated a 4th time with “negotiations” with the two Zio clowns? Why not wait 2 or 3 months and see the economic destruction in the U.S.? Simple….
Absolutely. Time is on Iran’s side. Three and one half months until the mid-terms. I wonder how the Republicans will fare when gas is $10 / gallon; if you can find it. Will they stay the course with the insane orange man in the White house, or throw him overboard?
Trump didn’t create the powerful economy, or the resources and tools, he is misusing, degrading, and tossing around like a demented child. The negotiation he should be doing is apologizing, and groveling for forgiveness to the American (and planet’s) people. In a society with more honor and less shameless shifty propagandizing, he would publicly do the appropriate act.
Perhaps the US media could call him out just a little bit to his face. Without any push back its no wonder he is so unhinged.
+100
Spot on!
Fox news conservative talk radio /influences are all party of the republican propaganda machine.
Remember that song about being on the outside looking in?
The war should end in Iranian defeat and surrender.
You forgot the /s
Can you describe this great victory you are imagining, and how you see the victory by the US materializing? As an American, I would love to see Iran defeated. But I am not sure of the method by which we are supposed to beat them. Do you suggest nukes, or something more subtle?
They will wake up one day and suddenly realize the undeniable perfection of the American Evangelist idolatry of Trump. They will throw down their weapons and race to the shore begging for Trump’s forgiveness on bended knees and swearing their fealty, every man, woman, and child, to their God-King.
A solid gold monument 500 get tall of his fat sweaty ass will be raised in Tehran.
They will rebuild the Colossus of Rhodes in his image over the Straight of Hormuz
And just when they started to revel in their euphoria, Trump and the Americans, woke up from their wet dreams back the reality of a nightmare. LOL
Don’t forget that Iran did not start this war. Iran was the victim of an unprovoked attack launched during negotiations that Iran believed were being held in good faith. International law has a word for this. It is called perfidy and it is a war crime.
“Should” didn’t mean Shit.
Opinions are like assholes
So get your helmet and backpack and go, tough guy.
I’m not sure anything can really happen at this point.
Iran’s Supreme Leader says US breaches show Trump’s signature is ‘worthless’
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-says-us-breaches-show-trumps-signature-is-worthless-2026-07-18/
And I found it interesting that Iran publicly thanked Jordan for intelligence. So many theories can be drawn from that.
https://www.rt.com/news/643253-iran-jordan-us-strike/amp/
I’m not sticking up for either side, however…….
WRITTEN STATEMENTS are not proof of life! It’s been almost half a year.
Iran’s “Supreme Leader” is dead or a vegetable.
What possible reason would there be for Iran to not offer up some proof of life? What possible advantage is there to keeping his presence on this Earth a secret?
There isn’t one. No visual proof. No audio proof. If this was in a court of law it would be thrown out. If your loved one was kidnapped and you wanted some proof of life would this be acceptable? A printed out statement? Yeah…. I don’t think so.
Iran’s FOREIGN MINISTER says supreme leader is still alive ‘as far as I know’
WTF is that supposed to mean? That means to me that he is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd2jPtbHGZ4
Reportedly he was badly disfigured by Trump’s cowardly assassination attempt.
Need to do a better job next time and bury him!
Has taco had time to contact all of his billionaire buddies before announcing he agrees so they can make a sizable profit for the umpteenth time?
At least one person does not realize this is factually what Trump has been doing for months. Too busy gargling the Trump family, I guess.