The FED is operating the economic engine in reverse. Interest rate manipulation decreases R-gDp more than inflation. The proper course of action is to drain the money stock and simultaneously drive the banks out of the savings business.
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
Latest estimate: 2.3 percent — October 3, 2022
Stocks have always bottomed when R-gDp bottomed. But the rebound in R-gDp is likely to reverse. Formally this was determined by the ROC in legal reserves. I.e., the distributed lag effect of money flows were mathematical constants for > 100 years.
We knew this already: In 1931 a commission was established on
Member Bank Reserve Requirements. The commission completed their
recommendations after a 7-year inquiry on Feb. 5, 1938. The study was entitled
“Member Bank Reserve Requirements — Analysis of Committee Proposal”
its 2nd proposal: “Requirements
against debits to deposits”
After a 45-year hiatus, this research
paper was “declassified” on March 23, 1983. By the time this paper was
“declassified”, Nobel Laureate Dr. Milton Friedman had declared RRs to be a
“tax” [sic].
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
residential construction has declined for 4 months. Numbers are SAAR.
May … $945 billion
June … $937 billion
July … $921 billion
August … $912 billion
Behind a paywall … but doubt this will help …
Home Builders Offer to Sell Homes in Bulk at Discount to Investors
As mortgage rates hit a 15-year high and individual buyers back away, builders look to unload both planned and completed homes
Little new construction to replace destroyed homes has occurred over the past year in the areas directly affected,” said Carliner. “It will be a decade or more before replacement building is completed, and the numbers of people and homes are unlikely to return to prehurricane levels.”
I suspect a lot of people were not insured (it’s a Florida thing) and won’t have money to rebuild. Also, there have been efforts underway to lessen the amount of building that gets permitted on barrier islands for good reason (they flood entirely).
The desire to live in Florida Hurricane Country has probably diminished. Fewer people will choose to rebuild even if they can. Many will take the money and run.
Member Bank Reserve Requirements. The commission completed their
recommendations after a 7-year inquiry on Feb. 5, 1938. The study was entitled
“Member Bank Reserve Requirements — Analysis of Committee Proposal”
its 2nd proposal: “Requirements
against debits to deposits”
paper was “declassified” on March 23, 1983. By the time this paper was
“declassified”, Nobel Laureate Dr. Milton Friedman had declared RRs to be a
“tax” [sic].