Continued unemployment claims are the highest since Nov 2021. It’s much worse than it looks. Also, let’s discuss the impact of Trump shutting the border.
This morning the Department of Labor released Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers.
Initial Claims
- In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 217,000 to 219,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 217,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 221,000 to 221,500.
Neither Hurricane Milton nor Hurricane Helene had a lasting impact on new claims.
The good news ends there.
Continued Claims
- The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 9, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 9 was 1,908,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 1,879,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,928,000.
Insured Unemployment
The key phrase above is “insured unemployment”.
After someone expires all of their unemployment benefits they become “uninsured unemployment” and the Department of Labor stops tracking.
Expiring Unemployment Benefits
- Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
- Many states with a maximum of 26 weeks use a sliding scale based on a worker’s earnings history to determine the maximum number of weeks they qualify
- Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, North Carolina, and Kentucky have a lower number of week.
- Massachusetts allows up to 30 weeks depending on conditions. Montana allows 28 weeks of benefits.
Insured unemployment generally ends at 26 weeks. To correct for expiring benefits, we need add those with expired benefits to the number of continuing claims.
Continued Claims and 27+ Weeks
Any incentive the Biden administration had to pad payrolls with government workers is now gone.
Much of that happened at the state level and local level where illegal immigrants caused a surge in the need for health care and social workers.
Change in Employment Excluding Government
Excluding Government, Year-Over-Year Employment Is Negative 9 Straight Months
I discussed the above chart in Excluding Government, Year-Over-Year Employment Is Negative 9 Straight Months
For all of 2023 except December, year-over-year employment excluding government was +1.8 million on the low end and +2.8 million on the high end.
January of 2024 was +330,000 followed by 9 straight months of negative numbers.
BLS Nonfarm Revisions
If I am not mistaken, I believe we can spot a general trend here.
And more negative revisions are coming.
Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
Chart Notes
- The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is a dataset published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). QCEW is comprehensive, capturing 95% of US wage-and-salary jobs. The sample size is 12.2 million establishments.
- The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Nonfarm Payroll Report comes out monthly. The sample survey is 629,000 individual establishments in 2024.
- The Employment Level is from the monthly BLS Household Survey that also estimates the unemployment rates.
Yesterday, I commented Quarterly QCEW Data Provides More Evidence of BLS Jobs Overstatement
Hard evidence from QCEW report suggests more negative revisions coming for BLS nonfarm payroll report.
Mish July 26, 2024: Expect the BLS to Revise Job Growth Down by 730,000 in 2023, More This Year
At the heart of these revisions is a horribly flawed birth-death model used by the BLS. My calculation closely matches an estimate by Bloomberg’s chief Economist.
Mish August 21, 2024: BLS Revises Jobs Down by 818,000 the Most Ever, About 68,000 Per Month
Do I get to say I told you so? My advance estimate a month ago was 779,000 lower. Bloomberg estimated 730,000.
The reports are not directly comparable, with precision, especially given the jobs vs employment discrepancy.
However, my prior comparisons and advance calls suggest we see negative revisions in nonfarm payrolls from 2023 Q2 to 2024 Q2 of well over one million.
My initial stab is about 1.2 million to the downside.
Five-Point Recap
- The main driver for jobs (government) is gone once Trump shuts the border.
- Biden’s effort and incentive to pad payrolls is gone.
- Continued claims are surging.
- It’s much harder to find a job if you lose one.
- Continued claims plus 27+ weeks unemployed looks very recessionary
Other than the above, things look great, especially if you have money in the stock market.
I am not implying that uncontrolled migration is a good thing, because it isn’t.
Rather, I am simply outlining what’s about to happen given the main driver for employment has been government.
Matt Gaetz Withdraws Trump Nomination
Gee – Who Cooda Node?
I was watching Leo Terrell trying to learn. Perhaps he learned something.
Do I hear any “You called this” or just silence?
https://x.com/MishGEA/status/1859667304969273424
He was a candle in the wind…..he will be missed. Now Trump can put in virtually anyone bc they aren’t him.
But the majority of American voters signaled less than two weeks ago Trump could do and pick anyone he wanted?
You called it, but a win for the Deep State. Judge Napolitano did a show with someone stating this was a ploy to get Gaetz out of Congress. Credit to the Democrats to never back down on their own unless making negative comments against Israel. The Jewish lobby controls American government. Just terrible.
I expect a lot of chaos and a swinging door in Trump’s administration.
Regarding jobs, there are help wanted by me all over the place. The only problem is the wage you make isn’t balancing the inflation. I’m awaiting Trump’s plans for budget. Seems the US Government is going long BTC in order to pay off some of the debt. More Ponzi, more printing. Becoming less optimistic with Trump. See what happens.
“Judge Napolitano did a show with someone stating this was a ploy to get Gaetz out of Congress. “
I too mentioned that possibility..
Here you go
https://mishtalk.com/politics/how-many-senators-would-vote-against-gaetz-for-attorney-general/
5-D Chess
It’s now time to roll out the 5-D chess theory. 5-D theory has two possible parts.
Theory #1: Trump wanted to get rid of Gaetz and nominated him knowing he would fail.
Theory #2: Trump purposely nominated someone so bad to make his other picks look better.
Should Trump pull the nomination, expect his supporters to chime “It was all part of the plan“.
Should Gaetz drop out himself, Trump will cry that he is a continued victim, a martyr, doing the best, not for himself, but you.
So, it’s 5-D either way.
OMG, Trump DOES care what we get? OMG!
Perhaps the implication of this is that Tulsi and RFK have better odds now.
You think Gaetz is just going to disappear?
Bench is very deep and DOJ needs more then a Housecleaning.
Advice being given to Garlands DOJ staffers to take a long vacation.
For those for whom the implications elude, Gaetz being put in play spooked the Rats over at DOJ. They thought the RINO group would surely rescue them.
That Trump would never take a shot at True reform. they are wrong.
By the way Gaetz resigned from current congress so push comes to shove he can take the seat he just got elected for in the next Congress.
Gaetz just shoved himself right out of that option, according to his own interview. Maybe you can just let this go?
Oh look over there, Pam Bondi.
Rinos and globalists wish now they kept their mouths shut.
Lot of early retirements and resignations coming to a DOJ near you, very soooon.
Interesting. Maybe he’ll be replacing Sen. Rubio? Or, maybe he’ll be back in the house after winning reelection. Who knows? Only the legal conspirators with power and money to blow know.
Hopefully! 😉
You called it, Mish! (on Gaetz) I just heard on Two Way that the new AG nominee is Pam Bonde. Mark Halperin called her Matt Gaetz in a skirt.
Gaetz in a skirt … I wasn’t expecting high praise for her.
I prefer Gaetz himself but Bondi will rip out your beating-heart while smiling on Fox News.
Sundance at The Conservative Tree House thinks she’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/11/21/pam-bondi/
Yes, Mish, you did call this one, for sure.
I can’t wait to hear if Eric Vahlbusch acknowledges your analysis. He stepped up to the free throw line multiple times (after telling you to “sit down”) with his multiple and unequivocal Con Law reasons why Trump could put Gaetz in as AG no problem. Then Trump called Gaetz that he did not have the votes (as you analyzed). Eric misses big time with an AIR BALL.
Maybe he can make it up with some free help if you run into personal injury law issues LOL
Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years ⋆ Brownstone Institute
Some would agree with you Mish
“Also, let’s discuss the impact of Trump shutting the border.”
For each action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The Democrat Party flood of illegal aliens resulted in a substantial percentage of Hispanic American citizens supporting Trump. If government jobs have been surging to deal with the influx, the job surge will end and even reverse. Also, Trump has 2 years to accomplish what he wants, as the opposite reaction to a new president is that the party out of power tends to gain seats at the mid terms. I read the other day that Pelosi has already submitted paperwork to run in 2026.
“Other than the above, things look great, especially if you have money in the stock market.”
Added more bitcoin in my deferred “digits on a screen” accounts today. Bought more gold tonight from Costco. Free shipping and $9 over spot. I’m not a hunter, but when the uprising happens maybe I can trade some gold for guns?
My entire R&D department was shut down Jan 2 this year. All of us found new employers. 3 of the 15 relocated, my self included. I did not want to relocate, but after final, on-site interviews with 6 local companies, the first job offered required relocation. I took it because I knew where the job market was in the cycle from reading this blog. I’m very fortunate that the company has been a great match. I love the work, and the pay is good.
Congrats and best wishes
Who asked the low income citizentry if it was ok to add 10 million illegals to compete against them for jobs?
The US Federal government has violated the Constitutional Contracts with the citizentry.
Even the democrats will realize this truth once recession hits hard.
We are just getting started with stubborn high unemployment.
If you can, stay out of debt. Skip Disneyland.
As predicted in comment 298792 on 11/15, Pam Bondi
I didn’t get my money in with Poly….just Mish.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-cabinet-nominees-the-good-the-bad-and-the-very-ugly/#comment-298792
Next prediction: Scott Atlas at HHS probably within NIH under Jay.
Who needs P2025 when you have Hoover Inst?
Still, lots to clean-up….but at least we’re not sinking into the much anymore!
People usually highlight the negative effects of less illegal migrants for supply.
Few mention positive effects on demand and prices.
And there is a perfect way to balance between the “need” for cheap labor ad avoiding excess: It’s known as legal migrants, who can also be temporary (transit has improved since 1820).
As is usual, spot on. Recession is here. This position was also taken by Danielle DiMartino Booth
THE hot job of 2025: Repatriation Agent.
“After someone expires all of their unemployment benefits they become “uninsured unemployment” and the Department of Labor stops tracking.”
And, it’s been like this forever, right? This isn’t some new development, right? This always happens when you’re at the tail-end of a multi-year gangbusters employment run, right? The labor market has to slow down at some point, right?
With all that said, at least you’ve stopped saying we’re in a recession. That’s welcome news. There could be one sometime next year, but for now, the job market, all things considered, remains quite solid.
You do realize that the “job market data” at this point looks almost exactly like the beginning of every postwar recession?
But the 36 trillion in debt, which is thirty six thousand billions of dollars of debt that we owe, over $106,000 per person, puts our country in a very not solid position I think.
“Rather, I am simply outlining what’s about to happen given the main driver for employment has been government.”
Federal government employment over the last 4 years. Up 150k since before the pandemic. Down 150k since the pandemic peak in Aug 2020.
Jan 2020: 2,851 million
Aug 2020: 3.157 million (pandemic peak)
Oct 2024: 3.002 million
Looks like it’s going in the right direction. Let’s hope the DOGE department gets the kind of traction conservatives are hoping for.
They will lead us to the Golden Age.
Continuing claims was at 1,350,000 when employers were *begging* for employees a few years ago, at all levels and in all job categories. You can subtract that number to get a reasonable number that excludes grift. When continuing claims passes 4 million, there’s a problem. Until then, it’s *mostly* just the lowest tier of unemployed workers milking an overgenerous unemployment system. There are some people in continuing claims that are in *real* trouble, but it is not the majority at the moment.
How to Restore Community Economies: Reestablishing the Right to Associatehttps://nonprofitquarterly.org/how-to-restore-community-economies-reestablishing-the-right-to-associate/
The inflationary depression is still steamrolling the country. It will get worse before it retreats. In the lala land of stock investing, the celebration rally of Trump’s return will give way to spectacular selective cratering as very many various issues become hopelessly toxic, narrowing the field.
The real question is not whether there’s a recession, but whether unemployment starts rising precipiotously as in 2009 and 1983; and then, whether it builds to dwarf the peak unemployment rates at the end of those precipitous rises to 10+ million.
Occupationally, now is a rough time to be alive, but by sticking it out we can always reach a point that has the sun shining in our faces once again. The jobs situation, which can best be described as “meh,” begs a closer look. In my estimation, Biden has got a “C” grade for managing the economy. His progressivist credentials — saturated with love and hope and change nonsense — have had him doing things which are counter to good capitalist logic. His urge to forgive all student loans is disastrous for the economy, for one thing. Students who have taken English courses and Fine Arts courses at university are ill-prepared to get a J*O*B when they graduate. Only a barest minority will get employment in the areas they schooled in, and these will be the sheer elite. As always, the mediocrities will get kicked to the corner.
University should never have been offered to everyone, because the intellectual rigor required to master it is not available to everyone. Nor does everyone have the temperament to excel there. Perhaps 35% of the population can benefit from a university education; the rest should be in trades schools or practicing for motherhood and children.
You can read more of my writings by going to: dark . sport . blog … on the net.
If Trump doesn’t give him the FBI Director job he can have the Attorney General hire him and put him in charge of HR (Drain the swamp)
The 10-year yield is up over 65 bps since the huge August 21 downward revision. Not very recessionary, Mish…
zig-zagging down…
Interest rates vary due to perceptions of inflation and default. If inflation is heading down, and the interest rate is going up, then and unspoken fear of defaults is building faster than inflation is falling.
The curve had been inverted for a ridiculous amount of time and it’s adjusting because people figured out that no one is taking inflation seriously (enormous deficits, the Fed encouraging speculative mania, etc). I wouldn’t call this a strong economy however. Right now there is a “white collar recession” — and it started in 2023 but they only got around to admitting it recently.
Like investing, short term ‘gains’ can be gone the next day, unless you cash out. All that counts is the long term.
Congrats on the call. Did you have money on it?
I think government jobs do not go away as the main driver of employment. Jobs created by an open border will be replaced by jobs created by a closed border/immigration enforcement. It’s going to take a huge effort to deport millions of people.
It takes a lot more man power to root out criminals who are trying to avoid you then it does to welcome people who willingly show up at your front door. Lots of jobs are going to be created as a result.
The people who presented themselves at the border are ‘near-illegal’–at least they went through the motions. It ‘s the unseen/unknown others who have to hide.
Career politicians finest example of knowing how to pump the data.
A secure border is always a must. No country on earth would exist without one.
Given that,does that mean that
1) Biden kept America’s border secure?
or
2) America does not exist?
Or, I suppose:
3) Both. And Biden did secure America’s border even though America does not exist?
Or, Biden does not exist, and America is on Uranus?
You may be on to something. America’s birth chart had Aquarius rising, ruled by Uranus.
It can take time for SHTF. There might not be any deportations if Biden sends more missiles to Ukraine.