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Continued Unemployment Claims Reach the Highest Since Nov 13, 2021

Continued claims are up 26,000 to 1,890,250.

Initial and continued unemployment claims data from the department of Labor, chart by Mish.

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending May 29, 2025.

Initial Unemployment Claims

  • In the week ending May 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 227,000 to 226,000.
  • The 4-week moving average was 230,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 231,500 to 231,000.

Initial Claims and 4-Week Average

Initial unemployment claims data from the department of Labor, chart by Mish.

Continued Unemployment Claims

Continued unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor, chart by Mish.

Continued Claims

  • The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 17 was 1,919,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 10,000 from 1,903,000 to 1,893,000.
  • The 4-week moving average was 1,890,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 1,887,500. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,923,500.

DOGE Impact on Claims

  • Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 610 in the week ending May 17, an increase of 15 from the prior week. There were 374 initial claims filed by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 4 from the preceding week.
  • There were 6,378 continued weeks claimed filed by former Federal civilian employees the week ending May 10, a decrease of 96 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 4,569, an increase of 188 from the prior week.

DOGE Layoffs

Image from layoffs.fyi

Those who voluntarily quit got up to 8 months of paid leave and are ineligible for unemployment claims.

Litigation impacts those who were fired.

I expect unemployment has bottomed and we will start to see significant increases in continued claims.

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Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago

I agree that nemployment has bottomed. The number of truck drivers, mechanics, warehouse workers, doge firings and other losses in employed are starting to take hold.

Popcorn?

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago

Real unemployment is much higher, always. They never count several categories, everyone knows that. People who stopped looking for jobs years ago. Or those who fool themselves as working with a YouTube channel making $50/week. Or free lancers who go through severe downturns (they could go down to zero income for months, but the BLS counts them as employed).

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

Not years ago. You need to have actively looked for work in the prior month. And you only need to work 1-hour/week to be counted as employed.

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Correct, and it’s ridiculous how they measure unemployment. It’s a propaganda tool for the gvt.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

Of course,. Any government is most interested in staying in power. That may require “massaging” data.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

you mean to tell me you think the men in power will lie to the middlebrows about everything from unemployment to wars to stealing from the common good treasury? do you think GDP which includes paying 100x more for a bullet and bomb to destroy some poor persons home and life is NOT productive? i am shocked i tell you. just shocked.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago

With employment dropping, so drops tax revenues. This is the opposite of what we need to right our deficits.

Let’s be clear, the solution to the debt problem is moderate economic growth coupled with low inflation and full employment.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

The way to make things far worse is random tariffs, uncertainty, targeted firings, defiance of the law and due process as well as a blatant disregard for the constitution.

Trumps taco truck is serving our economy rotten meat and salmonella chicken.

Electile dysfunction has consequences!

;-(

njbr
njbr
10 months ago

taking the TACO truck out for another spin

Trump raises tariff on steel to 50%, effective June 4

pity the poor planners, estimators and purchasing agents

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  njbr

Planners and purchasing agents routinely have to deal with volatile exchange rates and variable prices of inputs since supply and demand rarely match exactly. For them this is just another variable. Their worst scenario is failed deliveries rather than the cost itself.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

we are all now old hands at dealing with our schizo sybil like cult leader and his whipsawing and chickening out. GO TACO

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

You can fool yourself, but not those with the capacity for objective thought.

Although under Trump, random and radical tariff changes seem to depend on if trump wets himself the night before.

Unfortunately his incontinence is becoming a nightly thing as he tries to promote his profit platform with nightly “Tweets”.

Meanwhile, tax receipts are about to fall as jobs are lost and the supply chain breaks again under the weight of this orange tacos destructive agenda. Interesting how a government can not tax what is not available to sell and deficits swell!

Our sophisticated defense/offense weapons supplies are about to be crippled as rare earth stockpiles dry up and missile and aircraft guidance systems can not be built without them.

Electing narcissistic idiots has consequences!

stu
stu
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

– random and radical tariff changes seem to depend on if trump wets himself.
> Tariffs are anything but random, and targeted is a much more appropriate word use here. As far as wetting having any input, your delusional.

– Unfortunately his incontinence is becoming a nightly thing. > Have You got an issue with going to the bathroom? Not that’s it a bad thing, but you holding on longer than needed to for this…

– Meanwhile, tax receipts are about to fall as jobs are lost and the supply chain breaks again. > No New Jobs coming? No Trillions in investments coming? Nobody needed to run all of these New Companies setting up shop in America?

– Our sophisticated defense/offense weapons supplies are about to be crippled as rare earth stockpiles dry up. > Yep, they will sit back and watch and allow that to occur. They have no plans, no materials left, and we are toast… NOT!!

– Electing narcissistic idiots has consequences! > I agree Newsom, Pelosi, etc. are all narcissist. But that’s a clan of a subset of Democrats. All the rest are pretty good in comparison.

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
10 months ago
Reply to  stu

LOL President Taco put tariffs on places where no humans live
They used AI to make up that list just like they’re using it to destroy our healthcare system with made up sH!t

Last edited 10 months ago by Phil in CT
bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

bingo. amerikans are mostly nihilists and narcissists and self absorbed babies who were reared on idiot box entertainment and schooled in k through 12 and in professional asshole factories. the rest is eyewash. democracy works perfect. always has. hat tip republic of plato.

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

Nothing there worth commenting on.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago

taco man seems more and more like sybil each day. so many personalities changing every hour.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
10 months ago

What I find unusual is how continued claims looks like it wants to head lower, but the initial claims wants to head higher. It would not make sense for continued claims people to find jobs faster than new claims are being made. Getting kicked off unemployment for failing to look for a job might explain why initial claims are moving up exponentially, but the continued claims has been flattening

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

They don’t count lots of people. The “US workforce participation rate” is 62.60%.
Imagine how many they exclude to show a low unemployment rate. Every YouTuber that makes $10/month from his channel is considered “employed”. And people who have stopped looking for jobs for years are not even counted.
It’s like inflation – they said 6% and groceries had doubled in price. Oh yeah, it was 6% indeed if you bought houses and yachts every year (and cut down on food and gasoline).
Many government ratios is just an excuse for the government to hire people who play with Excel a lot.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago

Trump only cares about one thing.  And one thing only.  Being In the limelight. Just like hitler.    He is the ubermensch of nihilists.  Why I do love him in a twisted platonic relationship.  Glad I bought X today on this little rally at us steel.  He’s really just like hitler.  Feeding on the live audiences of cult nihilists………….watcing the us steel rally live.  So great.

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

So, celebrities and influencers are also “just like Hitler” because they like being in the limelight?
— Hitler wanted a large government and central planning. Trump is for smaller government. What dictator (or fascist) in his right mind reduces the government?
— Hitler wanted almost absolute media censorship. Trump is against that.
— Hitler was primarily supported by the public sector bureaucrats and most universities (especially those engaged in eugenics). Trump’s case was the exact opposite.
— Trump is running on the agenda of the Democrats from 20-25 years ago or so. He picks the topics with high ratings in surveys and acts on them. That’s what every businessman does.
— I find nothing nihilistic in either Hitler or Trump or the Democrats (all three = ideologues with different “big plans”).

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

watch documentary “hitler a career”. or the documentary about chaplin’s film “the great dictator”. charlie chaplin knew that hitler was the greatest actor of his generation. TACO boy is our greatest actor of our generation. not even debatable. all my thespian pals agree. took some acting classes for fun a few years ago. the director/actor professor agreed, too. trump is hitler like actor level skills. you seem triggered. like many middlebrows when old adolph is mentioned. my dad guarded nazis in the war. i interviewed him for a class project in junior hs. nazis were not monsters. just ordinary nihilists.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

read “ominous parallels” and watch 4 part “century of self documentary free on youtube. adam curtis

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

if you are still confused and think the blue and red team are different i suggest watching pro wrestling and gambling on it.

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

Teachers, university professors and doctors had the highest percentage of Nazi party membership compared to all other professions in Germany. It makes you wonder why those professions are so susceptible to the totalitarian message.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

Trump is in a class of his own when it comes to profiteering from his office.

Winning and deals made are for him and his minions, not America.

Remember 200 trade deals in 90 days? Accomplished 1 lame deal with the UK.

Remember building the wall? Total failure!

Remember tariffs balancing the budget, paying off the debt and ending the IRS? Mathematically impossible bullshit!

We need to face the fact that trump is a con artist and shill in his best moments and a fraud the other 99% of the time.

This emperor has no clothes!

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

aye sir/madam

dtj
dtj
10 months ago

How meaningful (or meaningless) is a statistic like “continued unemployment claims”?

What about people who run out of benefits before they find another job? What about people who lose a job but don’t qualify for benefits?

What about people who are underemployed in a low wage job at McDonald’s because the information technology job market is currently horrendous?

Does anyone realize that the job market is not hopping like it was a few years ago? Unless you’re personally affected by it, you would never know, because the media is not reporting it.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  dtj

total nonsense. like GDP

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  dtj

The media in general reports only the headline figures, which are mostly averages that are inaccurate, such as unemployment is at 4.2% (a very good figure), which is why I regularly call for government statistics to be a 3-month moving average.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago

Another warning article:

Behind the Curtain: A white-collar bloodbath
Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen
29 May 2025

Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world’s most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:

• AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.

• Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop “sugar-coating” what’s coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

Why it matters: Amodei, 42, who’s building the very technology he predicts could reorder society overnight, said he’s speaking out in hopes of jarring government and fellow AI companies into preparing — and protecting — the nation.

Few are paying attention. Lawmakers don’t get it or don’t believe it. CEOs are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won’t realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

what was it. one tractor replaced like 20 farm hands. yawn. like ATMs. like autos and jets were gonna ruin horses and shipping. yawn. life marches on. get on the dole. like half of amerika from us military to the prisons to half the workforce like banks and MICC.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Google’s Veo 3 is amazing at creating video from scratch with just prompts. No need to hire any crews to film anything anymore, it’s all computer driven. This alone will wipe out the Hollywood ecosystem.

Amazing how far it’s come from 2022 to 2025 just 3 short years and where this will be 10 years from now.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aRb4fSgqXJ8

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

AI like the internet itself will change lots of things. but alas, the proper thing it will do is leave behind people that don’t embrace it. my professor at stanford, who worked at apple, google and meta lectured us about this just a few weeks ago. if you don’t embrace it, you are screwed. the hollywood folks who embrace it will be fine.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Which is the point of:

AI 2027

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.

We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.

https://ai-2027.com/

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Also check out:

AI-enabled “vibe coding” lets anyone write software

By John Ruwitch NPR

May 30, 2025

Chloe Samaha wasn’t trained to write software. But she and her partner at their San Francisco-based startup BOND got a working version of a new online productivity manager and website up and running in less than a day.

“He was on his way back from a ski trip and built the entire back end … in six hours. And I built the front end in, like, an hour-and-a-half, and we just had a functional product,” Samaha said.

They did it mostly by “vibe coding” — using fast-evolving artificial intelligence chatbots, as well as other new AI tools, to write the software for them.

It helped Samaha go from a concept for what she calls “an AI chief of staff for CEOs and busy execs” to a prototype and then a product on the market with lightning speed.

It also highlights advances in AI that are opening up possibilities for creators and shaking up the world of software engineering.

http://npr.org/2025/05/30/nx-s1-5413387/vibe-coding-ai-software-development

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

What is good then we could hire an AI actor to give political messages for peanuts. Today real actors and singers are ridiculously expensive for that.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

You know what makes more money than the NFL, NBA, and MLB combined? “Adult entertainment” a.k.a p0rn. AI will kill all of it and no more complaints about exploitation of actors. There are already AI OnlyFans channels online.

With AI anyone can type a prompt and create whatever “entertainment” they want with whatever type actors they want blonde, redhead, brunette, rainbow hair, tall, short, fat, skinny, etc.

But speaking of sports why bother watching the NFL when I can create a prompt where my favorite sports team always wins. Better yet, if you don’t like the rules of football, just create a prompt and change them and alter the game whichever way you want. I’d like to see the Patriots play a game of Quidditch against the 49’ers.

Don’t like how the story ended in your favorite book? Change it to what you want then ask AI to create a TV series of movie around it.

I’m just scratching the surface here, the possibilities are endless as the technology improves.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Shared experiences is why we watch and cheer for our sports teams.

If you don’t believe me, try talking about your fantasy baseball or football team to people at a party. They’ll walk away in seconds.

Not sure real porn is going to go anywhere. You can already watch made up porn in Hentai and while some do, most don’t.

Last edited 10 months ago by TexasTim65
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Why do you keep assuming that AI can’t be a shared experience? It baffles me especially since you know about fantasy teams. AI will do the same thing, bring fantasy AI everything together, except it will be better because the feedback loop is you and what you want not what others are giving you.

QTPie
QTPie
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

AI will definitely have a big impact, but at the same time the guy is talking his book – so take what he’s saying with a certain amount of salt.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  QTPie

Sometimes, people talking their book actually have something to talk about!

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

In the translation industry we always used our own translation memory software (databases you fill over time), and then gradually Machine Translation (MT). Which is just a gigantic database of already completed translations (so it picks up the best match, and you do only the corrections, saves lots of time).
So what is “AI” in my job and it’s destroying everything? It’s not a new MT. It uses the good old MT, but it’s an interface that everyone can now use. In the past you had to know what and how to use it. Now everyone can use it by just asking the machine.
AI will destroy tons of jobs, not because it’s smart, but because it provides the easy-to-use interface. It’s like moving from “DOS command prompt” to “Windows”.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  Lefteris

Making things easier to do IS the goal of computers and technology.

e.g., remember how difficult it was to do research on anything back in 1970’s? How difficult it was to publish books or music. Etc.

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

I don’t dispute that. In our case of course we never had “copyrights” etc. on translations. Google originally failed to make a machine translate, so IBM came up with the idea of the “gigantic database”. The computer just pulls out sentences already translated by humans at some point and presents them to you (advanced LMs combine parts of sentences too, almost same way it creates images). IBM copied the idea we were using for ourselves on a massive scale, and “stole” the unprotected content. We’re going towards extinction in 3-4 years. In my case I still have work because of badly written complex texts by Greek lawyers and judges, but rates are now very low due to slavery being the normal modus operandi of Greeks in Greece (Europeans generally never negotiate, they are cheap intellectual workforce) and technology advances in different sectors of our business (a project manager thinks that if an easy text costs $50 to translate, the same applies to everything).
Photographers, graphic designers, most programmers are also being destroyed as we speak. Their jobs are not replaced by other jobs. They’re just completely lost (unless you count “1 watcher at Google gets a job for every 1,000 designers losing theirs“).
Humans are not eternally constant beings – we age. Good luck trying to reeducate 50-year olds for different jobs with similar income.
And nobody is making the money that they lost to AI in order to pay taxes (the Pro version of Google Trans is almost free).
I wonder if we ever find again “two generations of stability” as it happened in the past. Stability generates family and community.

Doug78
Doug78
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

If AI wipes out all those professions as predicted then those companies will have no one to sell to. Now if we can program AI with a desire to consume then everything will work out for the companies, right?

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

How many times do I have to reiterate that once AGI/Robots/Automation replace humans and are able to do all the work necessary to produce everything that is needed, then everything will be FREE?

Now, there will be a period of dislocation and adjustment until all the kinks are worked out. Perhaps that will last 30-100 years and a lot of changes will manifest themselves

It’s called a post-scarcity society and is superbly represented in The Culture novel series by Banks.

It does seem like a lot of people, including yourself, are going to be caught by surprise over the next few years with the sharp acceleration of autonomous cars and robots working in factories and elsewhere at blue-collar jobs.

Check this out:

Figure
@Figure_robot
BMW x Figure Update

This isn’t a test environment—it’s real production operations

Real-world robots are advancing our Helix AI and strengthening our end-to-end autonomy to deploy millions of robots
7:00 AM · Mar 31, 2025

https://x.com/Figure_robot/status/1906708103091138606

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
10 months ago

ICE Tampa leads construction site operation ending in over 100 arrests
https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/ice-tampa-leads-construction-site-operation-ending-in-over-100-arrests/

BenW
BenW
10 months ago

I saw that. Nice!

Would love to know if the companies employing these illegals get arrested as well.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW

arrest all families who have ever employed a maid or gardener. see something say something. get a reward too.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

And charge them $300.00 per night to pay for their prison terms?

Winning!

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

great point. i like how you think. we could arrest half of all households for employing illegal help in the past century. make amerikans pay to be incarcerated. of course we will exempt the millionaires at the yacht clubs. dad joined the yacht club in the 50s to get inside information from the boys.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago

The only thing missing from the story is who is going to do the work of 100 less workers?

Jean
Jean
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Good question.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Depends on what work they were doing. If they were just pure unskilled laborers (carrying loads, cleaning up the site, helping actual skilled workers) then they should be able to be easily replaced with high school or college kids looking for summer jobs.

If they were skilled (carpenters, plumbers etc) then there will be more of a problem.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago

And when the builder goes bankrupt and the building does not get finished – Who wins? No one – and all of the positive economic activity comes to a standstill.

Bravo! This is winning?

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

Builders are just fine in Germany although companies are lawfully raided by… Unions(!) to determine whether workers are paid the lawful salaries and work under the lawful conditions and are all authorized to work.
And builders were fine in America too before the open borders tsunami. Same for Sweden. And Ireland had lots of productive immigrants before it opened the borders to the freeloader tsunami – and now, productive immigrants (especially women) don’t chose Sweden or Ireland anymore, because of high crime and unreasonably high rent costs, both caused by the tsunami.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago

Trump just announced increases on Steel Tariffs from 25 to50% to help Nippon / US steel golden deal.   all you partisans that are caught up in blue v red team cheerleadear and pom pom girls make me LOL>. it’s stupid. nobody could detect a difference in 2 major parties in past 50 years in a blind test. nobody. impossible.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago

With more unemployment to come! But plenty of new factory worker openings sure to come soon, per Trump.

The age of AI layoffs is already here. The reckoning is just beginning

Job cuts are hitting knowledge workers from entry-level to management, from tech-forward companies to more staid corners of Corporate America

By Catherine Baab

5/27/2025

https://qz.com/ai-layoffs-jobs-microsoft-walmart-tech-workers-1851782194

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Good article. It mentions DoorDash at the end and then I saw this gem…

https://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/1kza5bt/job_market_so_bad_even_doordash_wont_take_me/

Looks like the Trump economy is falling apart exponentially.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

The bigger picture there is that they don’t need drivers because people are not ordering food and stuff for delivery, which begs the question as to WHY? Have people gotten discipline and learned to cook at home? Or have they lost their income?

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Either there are too many people wanting to become drivers or there isn’t enough demand because people are broke. I think it’s a combo of the two.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Reddit as a source, LMAO…

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  Wisdom Seeker

Criticise the content, not the source and you may gain a bit of the wisdom you claim to be seeking.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
10 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

LMAO at you too. Anecdotal evidence isn’t even content.

Dude simply posted a graphic saying DoorDash in Northern Virginia isn’t hiring right now.

DOGE has caused a long-overdue spike in layoffs in DC-adjacent, which includes NoVA and MD. So there’s your reason for slack demand.

Next time try posting comments that aren’t a total waste of everyone else’s time?

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
10 months ago
Reply to  Wisdom Seeker

P.S. Content on Reddit is often fake / astroturfed, so even the graphic may not be real. DYODD

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago

Trump cut 172K federal bureaucrats. States reduced a whole spectrum of entitled people. On top of that both Trump and the states cut contractors and grants.

Last edited 10 months ago by Michael Engel
dtj
dtj
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

They will replace those “federal bureaucrats” eventually with contractors and let me tell you from experience that the federal government always gets hosed with the contracts they give out.

The contractors agree to do x, y & z for a million dollars, but only do x and y and still get the million dollars because there’s little accountability or enforcement of the contract terms.

The gov’t “saves money” but doesn’t get what it pays for and the work is done by someone making lower wages with less benefits than the federal worker they replaced.

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  dtj

>>They will replace those “federal bureaucrats” eventually with contractors >>
True, though a reasonable government doesn’t reinstate departments that were doing nothing or were mostly laundering money (‘sex education in Afghanistan’ never happened in Afghanistan – it was just a working title for domestic money laundering).
Governments when they get caught usually wait about 5-8 years to restart the party.
Back in Greece in the 90s we had the EU Grants for businesses. All of a sudden they discovered small villages with dozens of registered businesses (only on paper) that got the grants. The applicants didn’t even live there. They were friends of government employees who were getting the EU Grants and sharing them with the government employees. The EU never checked, it trusted the paperwork. But everybody knew.
Similar things happened in Italy.
The only programs with low corruption where the locally funded programs. Local governments were tight, low cost, and more efficient. Because the “inspectors” were the entire local population.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago

Deportation of lettuce pickers and Harvard prof will increase demand for highly skilled a low skilled workers. The boomers are retiring and expiring every day. The zoomers don’t care about boomers health and houses. It’s a systemic change. Inflation will deflate housing and rent. MAGA cheer Trump for the rise in unemployed gov workers. They like the decline of gov bureaucrats so much they will ask for more, bc the flyover workers have been forgotten and punished for decades.

Last edited 10 months ago by Michael Engel
bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

states like WV have the most federal workers and on the dole……

Lefteris
Lefteris
10 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

It’s like Luxemburg. Non-Europeans who don’t know, assume that it must be an ultra-productive economy, given the highest GDP per capita. The country itself has become EU offices – they’re all highly paid bureaucrats.
The only thing I’ve seen “Made in Luxemburg” in my life were those ultra-white tourists searing in their sunscreen oils under the Greek sun.

Frosty
Frosty
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Two questions:

  1. Is English your primary language?
  2. Have you ever taken a logic class?
BenW
BenW
10 months ago

There is absolutely zero chance of a recession until continuing claims push past 2M and even then, they’ve got to push upwards of 2.25M before one can say we’re on the doorstep of a recession. That’s what the last 50 years of recessions have demanded.

dtj
dtj
10 months ago

Trump’s policies are going to make some of the MAGA faithful unemployed and homeless.

But they’ll still be cheering him on when they’re living in cardboard boxes and eating tree bark to survive because America will be “great” again.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  dtj

They already have, you can tell by the deafening silence of all the pro-MAGA people that used to comment here. I suspect quite a few have already had adverse effects one way or another but yeah it will get far worse with Trump at the helm of the Trumptanic.

I don’t think they are cheering him on though, check out the endless booing at all the townhalls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YozAR8jiu4

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

You’re still posting that BS.

There’s no way those booing in that crowd wasn’t a Dem setup.

Not worried about my job in the least.

ZERO!

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW

If it’s a dem setup then why isn’t there a repub setup to counter it? Believe whatever you want but Trump’s Turdonomics will get you in the end.

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Because conservatives don’t stoop to such low life tactics. And it’s not like the Dems who planned the setup called the GOP rep up & told her that she was going to be setup, so she could ensure her real supporters were in the room.

That’s why.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW
BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Right, I’ve already seen that one too.

Earnst literally says that the bill is going to remove 1.4M illegals from Medicaid who are NOT eligible, and the Dem planted heckler says, “We’re all gonna die.”

Holy cow. You can’t make this stuff up, but the best part is your trying to pass this off as legit pissed off Earnst voters.

Sentient
Sentient
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Contrary to what some believe, most Trump voters only support him conditionally and voted for him as the lesser of two evils. If we’ve clammed up, it’s not because we’re out foraging tree bark (although I do remember Euell Gibbons – “ever eat a pine tree? Many parts are edible.”) It’s because Trump is still arming the Ukrainians and the Israelis and arresting permanent residents for their non-violent speech. He’s proposed over a thousand billion dollars for “defense”. So there’s a lot to be disappointed about with Trump.

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Contrary to what some anti-Israel posters believe, most Trump voters support him because his policies mostly in-line with theirs, especially regarding Israel.

Granted, we don’t like his mouth, creating all sorts of exaggerations. But it does get the other side that got trounced by him six months ago foaming at the mouth, so there is an upside.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
10 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Commenting on this black hole is useless. I am sick and tired of u guys and your conductor.

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Me too!

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

And yet you keep coming back for more every single day.

Avery2
Avery2
10 months ago
Reply to  dtj

The crappier the new appliances are, the more cardboard boxes available.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
10 months ago

Minor numerical error in the article. The single point for continued claims is up 26,000… but not to 1,890,250. The single point value is 1,919,000.

The 4-week average of continued claims is 1,890,250 … and it is highest since 2021… but it’s not up 26,000.

IRISH
IRISH
10 months ago

Sèe how don old is fixing the mess he made?putting people out of work and making everything more expensive. way to go geriatric mental case.

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
10 months ago

Wall street says the economy is strong and don’t worry about the unemployment claims and recommend buy, buy, buy “cheep stocs.”

Jean
Jean
10 months ago

I agree with Mish. I expect things to get worse from here. The housing market is also going to get worse. When you add the deportation of so many people, we should expect severe pain ahead. Businesses will close because they won’t have enough workers.

Matt Beauchamp
Matt Beauchamp
10 months ago
Reply to  Jean

Incredibly brave call

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Matt Beauchamp

TACO already capitulated on the illegals who work for farmers and ranchers and golf courses…………sportsball chant “let’s go taco, let’s go taco……….”

Naphtali
Naphtali
10 months ago
Reply to  Jean

Home price deflation will be great for the young people. They will cheer Trump should this happen. Expect boomers to continue to eschew Trump and his policies.

Jojo
Jojo
10 months ago
Reply to  Naphtali

Hard to afford a house if you are unemployed!

Pea Sea
Pea Sea
10 months ago
Reply to  Jean

If you mean to suggest housing prices will go down, that’s not the housing market getting worse. That’s the housing market getting better.

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  Jean

Mish et all have been saying things were going to get worse for the last two years. It materially hasn’t. At a certain point, once you’ve cried wolf long enough, the economy will eventually head south.

But here’s the thing. We haven’t had a REAL recession since 2008-2009. 2020 didn’t count. It was a fake, government induced, 6-8 week global pandemic contraction.

I don’t have a problem with anyone giving Trump hell for continuing $2T deficits.

BUT IT’S GOING TO TAKE AN AWEFULLY BIG EVENT TO UNDO $2T & LURCH US INTO A RECESSION. LIKE REALLY FREAKING BIG.

Granted, most Trump haters here believe his tariffs are going to create this event. Time will tell. If they’re right, then we can all sit back and watch the S’ Show that the Dems will create once they’re back in office. We’d be gleeful for $2T deficits, if & when this happens.

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  BenW

more wall street bailouts please. toss in GM and us steel………to placate middlebrows.

BenW
BenW
10 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

Right! No tax on tips or overtime & an extra $4K deduction for retirees.

Those are big Wall Street bailouts for sure.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
10 months ago
Reply to  Jean

If your low cost servants won’t come to you, you must go to them.

Got exit strategy?

bmcc
bmcc
10 months ago
Reply to  Jean

i nice crash in r/e prices would be wonderful. i’m against deporting people who are not violent criminals.

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