Cook Political shifted 4 races to the Left. 
Senate Tossup
Texas and Iowa Senate Races Move to Toss Up; Races for Governor Also Move in Democrats’ Direction
Please note Texas and Iowa Senate Races Move to Toss Up; Races for Governor Also Move in Democrats’ Direction
Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way. But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach.
That’s what we see happening in Texas and Iowa. These two races, which had been in the Lean Republican column, now are close enough to merit a move to Toss Up. Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects.
In addition, those states’ gubernatorial races are also moving in Democrats’ direction — Texas from Solid to Likely Republican and Iowa from Toss Up to Lean Democrat — reflecting the worsening national and state-based environment for the GOP in each state.
Texas Senate: Lean Republican to Toss Up
The Lone Star State has long been Democrats’ “Lucy and the football.” Just when they seem poised to finally kick it through the uprights, political gravity yanks the ball away at the last possible moment.
What Republicans haven’t settled on yet is who will pony up the hundreds of millions of dollars they may need to save this seat and shore up Paxton — though they’re running out of time to decide. The pro-Cornyn establishment has all but signaled to the White House “you broke it, you bought it” after Trump boosted Paxton, so the task may fall to MAGA Inc., or even Elon Musk.
It’s important to note that Talarico also has liabilities that Republicans can — and will — exploit, including his comments that “God is non-binary” and that there are multiple genders. He’ll soon be hit with millions in ads designed to paint him as outside of the mainstream. But the soft-spoken seminary student also has attributes that make him appealing to disaffected Republicans, whom his campaign is aggressively targeting.
Getting to 50% of the vote as a Democrat in Texas is a tall order, but Talarico also may not need to, given the presence of a libertarian on the general election ballot. If GOP voters who don’t want to vote for Talarico but can’t stomach pulling the lever for Paxton decide to vote third party, that would still benefit Democrats.
Iowa Senate: Lean Republican to Toss Up
Some private Democratic polling has Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek up within the margin of error. Republicans acknowledge it’s tighter than they’d like, but their internal surveys still have Hinson leading within the margin of error. Republicans will privately admit that Turek — a former Gold Medal basketball paralympian who’s in a wheelchair due to spina bifida — is hard to demonize. The Senate Leadership Fund has already committed $33 million in the relatively inexpensive state, hitting Turek over missed votes in the legislature. But Turek on Wednesday released an ad emphasizing the 700 times he voted with Republicans in the state legislature, saying he will work with Trump if elected.
Iowa Governor: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
State auditor Rob Sand has been running one of the strongest campaigns in the country this cycle, and he has opened up a consistent lead outside of the margin of error in both public and private polling. We don’t expect this race against Republican Zach Lahn to be a blowout, as no race in the Hawkeye State is for Democrats. But since we are shifting the Senate race into Toss Up, the gubernatorial contest belongs in a category that reflects an edge for Democrats at the top of the ticket.
Iowa Governor Race
The Numbers
“He has lived outside of Iowa for most of the last 20 years… voted in Kansas in 2018, and in 2020, and in 2022… registered to vote in Iowa in 2024, just in time to say that he was a resident to run for governor.”
“75 nights in Wichita, Kansas, to 51 nights in Belle Plaine, Iowa. Now, he can say what he wants about where he lives. I’m a numbers guy. The numbers are 75 there and 51 here.”
Rob Sand may drag Turek over the line in the Senate race.
Farm State Politics
Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
On August 2, I commented Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
The grim setup for Republicans in the midterms keeps building.
Those of you who do not like my analysis based on a combination of polls, expected economic developments, and the betting markets can now reflect of the assessment of Cook Political.
The Kalshi betting markets have shifted back toward Republican but with Alaska now in the Democrat column.
PolyMarket
- Polymarket Senate Control is 50-50.
- Polymarket has Texas Senate at 50-49 Democrat
- Polymarket has Ohio Senate as 55-47 Democrat.
- Polymarket has Alaska Senate as 61-39 Democrat.
- Polymarket has Maine Senate as 71-30 Democrat.
Given those odds, 50-50 Democrat is very underrated.
From my perspective, nothing has changed. My call is “Lean Democrat” on the Senate, not 50-50.
I have been talking about Iowa and Texas all year. Iowa is a farm vote matter and Texas is about a very corrupt and beatable Ken Paxton.
Republicans can hardly be motivated due to the unpopularity of Trump. Texas will depend on Hispanic and big city turnout, and I think both will be huge.
Diesel prices are going through the roof, fertilizer costs skyrocketed, and Trump’s tariffs increased the price of farm implements.
The possibility of 6 seats has been my stated position all year. In January that idea looked silly. It no longer is.
Six seats is not a prediction. However, I do think Democrats take the Senate (that requires at least 4) over the War in Iran, diesel prices, tariffs, and inflation.
If Democrats do take Texas and Iowa, then six becomes odd-on, with a long shot at 7, Nebraska.
Here in MN, Dems will easily win the AG, governor and senate races. Thankfully AIPAC’s democratic candidate for senate lost the primary to the anti-AIPAC candidate – by almost 20 points. Voters are reaching peak Israel fatigue. As prices rise in the fall, voters will wonder how we into this dumb war. Oh yeah, Israel dragged us into it.
Add Nebraska to that list if dicking around with Canada ends up sending diesel from a fistful of dollars to a few dollars more territory. We’ve had good and we’ve had bad, now here comes the ugly. And breaking with the dollars references, very stupid to boot.
It would be positive if decency and sanity prevailed in November
Does voting actually accomplish anything these days? I expect not.
And you wonder how we got to this situation. It certainly couldn’t be dumbasses like you letting crooks run the system… could it? Could it be that people like you letting a spoiled rotten kid rob the till over and over again has made that kid think he can do whatever he wants? Could it be that grumbling about how your vote doesn’t matter is just a flimsy bit of CYA, because otherwise you and everyone like you would have to admit that this is partially their fault?
I implore you to think on that for a bit.
I don’t it hard to believe that it’s this close. People must not be paying attention.
After Labor Day