Most Cases in a Single Day
Hopes of containment we shattered as the WHO comments a on a new surge coronavirus cases surge: Most Cases in a Single Day.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference that the reported cases are “the most cases in a single day since the outbreak started” Dec. 31.
Infectious disease specialists and scientists say the virus may be more contagious than current data shows. Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is.
The respiratory illness is not yet considered a pandemic. A pandemic is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people,” according to WHO.
Looks Like a Pandemic
But hey, the WHO officials say it isn’t.
China Clamps Down On Coverage
Things are always worse than reported in China, especially when there is a Media Clampdown.
There is a new crackdown on the media and on the internet, and it signals an effort to control the narrative about a crisis that has become a once-in-a-generation challenge for leaders in Beijing.
Nearly 500 people in China have died from the virus, health officials said on Wednesday, and thousands more are being infected every day, fueling fears that the virus’s spread is not being adequately controlled.
And internet platforms have removed several articles that suggest shortcomings in the Chinese government’s response or are otherwise negative about the outbreak. Local officials have also cracked down on what they call online “rumors” about the virus.
Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases
The WSJ reports Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases
Designated hospitals in the Chinese city at the center of a coronavirus outbreak started taking only severe or critical patients, as more Chinese cities imposed restrictions on movement to help contain the fast-spreading pathogen that has killed nearly 500 people.
“The medical resources in Wuhan, especially the ICU team, are not enough to deal with this severe treatment,” he said in an interview Tuesday with state broadcaster China Central Television. The death rate from the virus in the city is 4.9%, more than twice the nationwide 2.1%, according to the health commission.
Cities throughout China are putting increasingly severe restrictions on residents. Zhumadian, a city in Henan province—which borders the outbreak-stricken province of Hubei—is allowing one person per household to leave every five days to buy supplies.
At least a half-dozen Chinese cities, including the tech hub of Hangzhou, near Shanghai, have imposed similar regulations, though typically allowing shopping every other day. Wuhan, Hubei’s capital, has been under lockdown for two weeks.
Bianco Update Yesterday
My Update Yesterday
Hiding Body Bags
Diamond Princess Cruise Quarantined
Coronavirus Passed on to Unborn
Still Growing Exponentially
How Many Deaths? 25,000?
25,000 deaths is more believable than 500. You do not lock up 60 million people over 500 deaths.
A half-dozen cities allow one person per household to leave their homes every five days to buy supplies.
And the death total is 500. Yeah, right.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Please no more hype on these hospital warehouses that the CCP built as propaganda memes. Any developed country can put up prefab warehouse in a short amount of time if necessary. They are irrelevant. What is necessary is for the Chinese Communist Party to reveal the real truth behind this massive epidemic? I am still waiting.
Excluding China, the number of new cases reported per day, with data from 1/23 to 2/5:
14,11,15,17,7,23,18,13,35,21,9,7,23,46,51
Where it goes from here is really important, and will tell us a lot about how successful the containment has been. In the early days, the cases were almost all people who had been to China in general, and Wuhan in particular. The recent cases are mostly human-human transmissions outside of China. Several factors affect what we are seeing. First, air travel was still going on early in this time, but then it got mostly shut down. Second, it takes time for a person who has been exposed to develop symptoms.
My reading of this data is that early on there was a fairly steady supply of new potential cases from people coming back from China, and that, as new cases arriving from China diminished due to ceasing travel, a few human transmission cases appeared, keeping the numbers about constant. Since it takes awhile for newly infected people to show symptoms, and given the efforts to limit the number of people exposed, the growth in human transmission cases outside of China has been slow.
What happens next? Is the 7, 23, 46 of the last three days the start of an exponential rise, as the coronavirus breaks out of containment? Or, is it an insignificant blip? Are we looking at waves, where the first infection wave was “7,23,18,13,35”, and then after a few days for the next infection cycle to begin, a second wave, 50% stronger than the first began “7,23,46,51…”
Only time can answer that.
Edit – i had an error in my spreadsheet, which i fixed. Due to the massive number of cases on the Japanese Cruise ship, the non China cases took a huge spike up the last two days. However, since those cases were confined to the cruise ship, the only people at risk are the other passengers on the ship, not the entire country of Japan.
Looking at the daily records, containment seems to working very effectively. Even based on official records, Hubei is still seeing a 20% daily increase in cases, which is what happens when it gets out, with no effort to contain it, and the death rate there is still high, which is what happens when you don’t have proper facilities and staff to treat the needed patients.
Outside of Hubei, the cases are rising more slowly each day, now at about 12% a day. Outside of China, where the records we can mostly believe, the infection rate is only rising 7% a day. Both rates are lower all the time. Prompt action, and quarantining anyone suspected of exposure, and preventing a situation where it is spreading freely in the wild…. for now, at least.
The data from Wuhan shows how important it is to catch it early, and address it aggressively. If a country lets down it’s guard, it could explode at any time, though. Japan, Singapore and S. Korea seem to be the most at risk.
“Confirmed cases” means those poor souls who have been tested and found infected. Yet there are widespread reports of inadequate supplies of test kits.
Are the “cause of death” reports consistent with western conventions? Probably not; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM&t=2s
(4 min mark)
Most troubling to me, in light of the above evidence, is why is the African continent apparently untouched? Is it unreasonable to suppose that Chinese workers involved on China-road projects did not travel home for new years? Is this phenomena due to no spreading of the virus or simply a lack of test kits?
No doubt China didn’t address the mild cases when they were overwhelmed with serious ones. There is certainly a certain amounts of catching up going on, with mild cases being tested and identified. That is why the cases is still going up in Hubei by 20% a day, but deaths are going up at 14% . It is probable that there is a certain amount of under-reporting from China, both in terms of cases and in terms of deaths, yet not by the orders of magnitude some people think.
Regardless of what you think about the data from China, the data from the rest of the world indicates containment. Most countries are seeing very few new cases, particularly cases that didn’t involve someone who had been in China. Yes, it’s always possible that the virus will break containment in some other countries, which would make it a pandemic, but for now it hasn’t, and it no longer appears likely that it will.
Agree with your first paragraph, but I worry about what happens when this hits Africa, which I think it might.
I didn’t get chance to answer your question on another topic about quarantine. First thing to say is that I am not medically trained. My guess is that they will continue to enforce the quarantine until numbers come down to manageable levels. How long will this be? From what I can tell, Chinese people in Wuhan mostly live in apartments with several generations of the family sharing. I assume transmissibility within those environments is quite high, so probably the time for a 5 person family to get it and recover from it is a month or so. Any cases beyond that would presumably be manageable since spread outside of those units would be minimised.
Rate of new cases continues to decelerate:
We don’t really know much about this virus. I’m a skeptic about our ability to handle this crisis in a timely manner.
The solar minimum, the rise of cosmic rays, and the cooling of the climate will cause a world famine in just a few years.
Starvation and pandemics like this one will cause half the population of our planet to perish in the coming decade. We will be on the edge of extinction if we do not band together. This is a time for nationalism.
We need to build more bunkers, focus on investing in vertical farms, and prepare, prepare, prepare. Preppers, the brunt of many jokes, may have the last laugh when SHTF happens. I see the way the Chinese built those hospitals, how fast. I applaud them. Can we do the same here, right now. The number one priority is infrastructure spending building bridges, highways, and hospitals. Put people to work, build up America, make us strong. Let’s make a difference.
This pandemic will create a global recession by 2021. The stock market will lose nearly 82% of its value over the first two years of that bleak period. The banks are still broken from 2008. We are so vulnerable at this moment in history. Bank balance sheets, derivatives, and the like–its a house of cards. There’s a reason why I can’t get any interest on my savings account. That’s proof enough of how bad things are today. And consumer credit rates are high. Debt levels are astonishing.
If the Spanish Flu killed nearly 60% of the people in Philadelphia, and similar death rates happened in other city across America, what chance do we have today? Particularly if a cooling climate lowers our crop yields, and the world enters a decade where famine spreads across the planet. We do not have enough hospitals, doctors, nurses, or crematoriums in this country to handle this—right now. It will require sacrifice by everyone, to volunteer, help out, and build a strong community. Get educated. Make yourself useful.
The average mortality rate in China is about 8 deaths per 1000 lives per year. Wuhan has a population of 19 Million. Do some math and you come up with a figure of 415 people in Wuhan moving on to the next phase of life everyday. So, the number bandied about are not significant in the overall picture. The pressure on hospitals must be significant though since many of the sick probably require ICU time. I suspect there is an under reporting of the number of infections as many who are infected will probably stay to fight it out. I think a young lady who showed up in the Canadian hospital system was kept for a few days but quickly released after what was reported a mild infection.
If this thing was engineered the Chinese government knows what it is. That might account for the massive response to this.
What we know about this virus is- nothing. Not the R0, not the actual dead rate or the rate of complications. We know nothing except there is a massive response to this by the Chinese government.
The Chinese government has put their economy at risk to fight this somewhat proactively. Government are not proactive. That’s scary.
Or was it a bioweapon that released “accidently” to see the effects of in real time?Chinese people were bein used as lab rats in an experiment that went south quick.Will the PLA next move to deploy the nerve toxin in Walmarts all over US?
Major Chinese cities are still on lock-down with an uncertain outlook about when the quarantines will end. Trucks are spraying disinfectant in the empty streets. Evacuation flights to Wuhan by other countries are restricted to using the airport during nighttime hours only. There are multiple separately leaked stories over the last week about the crematoriums running 24/7. Any media out of China that is not state sanctioned is increasingly sparse.
I cannot imagine the Chinese Communist Party taking such extreme measures if doing nothing meant 2% of their population might die. The reality must be much, much more grim.
Chinese politicians don’t hold the rights to lying as a crisis management tactic. (“When it gets serious, you have to lie.” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s 2011 comment re Greek debt crisis.), however, I’m becoming suspicious.
The first WHO situation report on January 21st, Wuhan had 258 cases of Coronavirus, including 51 severely ill, 12 critical and six deaths. Based ostensibly on this, they began actual construction of a 1,000 bed hospital in Wuhan four days later, finishing it in ten days.
I’m having a problem imagining the following conversation taking place between Beijing and Wuhan authorities:
Wuhan: We need help. We want to build a 1,000 bed hospital.
Beijing: Understood. How many actual deaths do you now have?
Wuhan: Six.
That’s the best point I have heard so far.
How about “we need help, we need to build a 1000 bed hospital”
“Understood, how many cases do you have”
“258, all of them needing hospital care, and 50 new since yesterday”
Alternate source for some statistical summaries and some specifics typically left out of the discussions.
From link for those who insist only older people are badly affected
“Serious Cases of 30 year old patients in France
As of Jan. 29, according to French authorities, the conditions of the two earliest Paris cases had worsened and the patients were being treated in intensive care, according to French authorities. The patients have been described as a young couple aged 30 and 31 years old, both Chinese citizens from Wuhan who were asymptomatic when they arrived in Paris on January 18 “
I’m an err on side of caution sort.
Took a quick peek of Washington Post / Fox News / Drudge / NBC headlines and you have to squint to find any mention of virus.
Must not disturb our false idol, I guess.
Hope we are at least preparing behind the scenes.
What do they know that results in such a massive lock down? Those in charge in China are scared.
It’s the main story on BBCs News at 10, looks as if they’re finally taking it seriously. Apparently in the main cities that are locked down they’re only allowing one member of the family to go out to get food every other day.
That Tencent bit is most likely a hoax.
Or this: https://twitter.com/stacyherbert/status/1225058409558544386
What about the 154,000 infections?
Good point. But I can go to any website, easily change the numbers in my browser, make a screenshot and claim that it was there accidentally for a minute before they fixed it.
Took me 10 seconds to make this: https://i.imgur.com/TdnXKVg.png
Someone else on another site explained how it could easily be faked as well. Doesn’t mean it is of course, just that you have to take everything with a pinch of salt.
Infections, maybe. Confirmed infections? No way they have tested that many people.
We should not have to guess at this point.
The WHO will know true mortality rate, which is all that really matters right now as the virus will be pandemic.
I’ll repeat that – the WHO knows the true mortality rate, 100% certain they have figures that are as close to reality as are able to be understood.
However they are not releasing independent info, info which might be useful to slow the dispersion of the virus and spare people.
Instead they are asking for over half a billion in extra funding.
So either :
There is dereliction of duty. If China wants to expel them for publishing so be it, it is their duty to inform, not to withold data so as to spy on China.
Western authorities are taking the lead from WHO, but some will certainly know the true extent also. If it were as serious as insinuated here, they would still not act independently to close their own borders because the economic cost of closing them completely would be too high, because society would not accept, because equally the virus is understood to achieve pandemic status even with borders closed.
So there would be international collusion and willingness to act under the guidance of WHO.
Or:
The figures are close to what China reports, and so there is little to add.
We will find out eventually, just remember at this point that whatever the mortality rate is, that most if not all governments and the WHO are aware of it, and will already now have been aware of it for weeks.
“China misinformed” will not be an acceptable excuse if it turns out much higher than reported by China at the moment.
I’m thinking 25k way more realistic considering actions taken. Probably a good idea to keep an eye on things real close in the US in case it’s time to make a run to Aldis, the stock up store, before everyone else does.
A big finding by one medical group is that a lot of the transmissions are fecally transmitted. Remember some were talking about Aids. That was way off because most fecal transmissions are made by people that live in unsanitary conditions, like Asia, India, etc. Was your hands thoroughly and use sterile wipes. In America it has been trending that way, until we had a small blip on the bottom of the analysis curve. A few more days and we will know if that is truly the case. Masks do nothing unless you do not want to give the virus to somebody else. As of right now be real sterile, and breath a little easier.
“Masks do nothing unless you do not want to give the virus to somebody else.”
Don’t give wrong advice.
One benefit of mask is it stops you touching your mouth. Which in the context of feral transmission is not insignificant.