The jobs hit parade is running in reverse. Hiring lowest in 14 years.
Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AI
Challenger, Gray, and Christmas notes Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AI
U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. It is up 183% from the 54,064 job cuts announced one month prior, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month. Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Through October, employers have announced 1,099,500 job cuts, an increase of 65% from the 664,839 announced in the first ten months of last year. It is up 44% from the 761,358 cuts announced in all of 2024. Year-to-date job cuts are at the highest level since 2020 when 2,304,755 cuts were announced through October.
Not only did individual companies announce large layoff totals in October, but a higher number of companies announced job cut plans. Challenger tracked nearly 450 individual job cut plans in October, compared to just under 400 in September. March, which had the largest number of job cuts this year primarily due to cuts at the Federal level, saw roughly 350 individual announcements.
October’s total is the highest for the month since October 2003, when 171,874 cuts were recorded. That month, large announcements occurred in Retail due to acquisitions and in Telecommunication as cell phones gained wide adoption.
“This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008. Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,” said Challenger.
Job Cuts by Industry
- Technology continues to lead in private-sector job cuts as companies restructure amid AI integration, slower demand, and efficiency pressures. In October, the sector announced 33,281 job cuts, up sharply from 5,639 in September. For the year, Technology firms have announced 141,159 job cuts, up 17% from the 120,470 announced through the same period in 2024.
- Retailers announced 2,431 job cuts in October, down from 2,577 the prior month, but the sector remains among the hardest hit this year. So far in 2025, Retail has announced 88,664 job cuts, a 145% increase from the 36,136 announced through October last year. The sector continues to face cost pressures, shifting consumer habits, and ongoing store closures.
- The Services sector, which includes companies that provide support to other businesses such as cleaning, staffing, and outsourcing firms, announced 1,990 job cuts in October, down from 6,290 in September. Year to date, the sector has announced 63,580 job cuts, up 62% from the 39,296 announced through October 2024.
- Warehousing led all industries in October cuts, announcing 47,878 job cuts, up from 984 in September. Year to date, the sector has cut 90,418 jobs, a 378% increase from the 18,904 cuts announced in the same period last year. The surge suggests ongoing overcapacity and automation-driven restructuring following pandemic-era growth.
- Consumer Products companies announced 3,409 job cuts in October, up from 1,983 in September. For the year, the sector has announced 41,033 job cuts, up 21% from the 33,865 cuts announced during the same period in 2024, as companies adjust production and workforce levels amid softening demand and changing consumer preferences.
- Non-profits continue to be impacted by Government funding as well as rising costs. These entities announced plans to cut 27,651 this year, an increase of 419% from the 5,329 announced by this point in 2024.
- The Media industry has announced 16,680 cuts so far in 2025, up 26% from the 13,279 cuts announced in the first ten months of last year.
- News, which Challenger tracks as a subset of Media and includes broadcast, digital, and print, has announced 2,075 job cuts so far this year, 337 of which occurred in October. That is the highest monthly total since 462 in May. For the year, News cuts are down 41% from the 3,520 cuts announced during the same period last year.
Hiring Plans
- Through October, U.S. employers have announced 488,077 planned hires, down 35% from the 750,333 announced at this point in 2024. It is the lowest year-to-date total since 2011, when 459,971 new hires were planned. On average, employers have announced 48,808 new hires per month, the lowest monthly average since 2011, when an average of 44,798 new hires occurred monthly.
- Included in Challenger’s hiring figure are 372,520 seasonal hiring plans through October (Table 8), the lowest number of announced seasonal hires through October since Challenger began tracking them in 2012.
- “It’s possible with rate cuts and a strong showing in November, companies may make a late season push for employees, but at this point, we do not expect a strong seasonal hiring environment in 2025,” said Challenger.
The two charts paint a complete picture
Except for the Covid pandemic, these are the largest layoffs since 2009 and the smallest hiring plans since 2011.
The lead chart is only through the third quarter.
Challenger reports 1,099,500 job cuts through October. In 2009, total layoffs were 1,288,000.
If there are a combined net 188,501 layoffs in November and December, this would be the second worst total in history dating to 1989, topped only by Covid 2020.
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Local business conditions are negative for small and mid-sized businesses.
What a jobs disaster.
I do not believe it’s possible to turn this ship around before the midterm elections.
Reader: Taco wasn’t on the ballot. When he is gone who will the Democrats be blaming everything on? Is Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris really a better option than Trump?
Mish: Two possibilities
The governors of New Jersey and Virginia
Right now, I think either would beat Trump if Trump could run again.
NJ and VA gov were elected on Nov 4, that’s two days ago. They are rookies. Trump has 3 years to install his chromosome. He doesn’t have to impress the just not Trump mob. He doesn’t need u. He doesn’t need Nancy the ripper.
Obama was a rookie. If you have the backing of Goldman Sachs and the rest of Wall St, you can win an election as a “communist” like Obama or “socialist” like Biden. All you have to do is sell your soul and represent the interests of the big banks like both of them did.
“I mean, you got the first sort of mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”
-Joe Biden
Mish, you are a libertarian. If you tell your readers about libertarian options, they might learn about such options. If you instead discuss D’s and R’s, it’s lost opportunity.
Every breath spent discussing D’s and R’s encourages people to continue thinking of them as the only two choices.
Replace Would with Could, and I agree, right Now, 100%!
– When he is gone who will the Democrats be blaming everything on? Is Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris really a better option than Trump?
> No they are not, but I see them, and more importantly, the newer options disliked, by the Leadership, as being given lots of rope, so they don’t have to get involved in the mess they have self created.
>> Politicians have proven over time, that they “Eat There Own” so lot of this chaos will end by The Leadership of the party when it’s time imo. They have the true power, real money, and the connections.
Mish trump was not on the ballot but his polices were. Imo the republicans stand as one. Way more than the dems. . As you can see by the take over of the party. He may not have started a lot of our problems but he sure has aggravated them.
My thoughts are dont expect the shut down to end anytime soon. If congress comes back in session they will have to swear in the new dem and she will be the finial signature for the files release. So right now he can use the dems as a shield. Trumps either in it big or protecting someone. Maybe that is what putin has on him if you recall that from the first term.
Guess time will tell
Josh Stein (NC)
Andy Beshear (KY)
Virginia is dominated by federal government workers and contractor vote in Washington DC metro area. And for the most part its been a Democrat state since at least the early 1990s.
New Jersey has been a Democrat state also since at least Bill Clinton’s first inauguration.
So these are not bellweather states.
In terms of jobs, having seen the cost of health insurance for 2026, it’s just increasingly onerous for employers (as well as employees) to shoulder huge costs before ever getting any utility in return. How much must each employer bear per employee on matching FICA, medicare, employee health insurance in addition to the incentives used to entice better employees like matching 401k, vision, dental, STD, LTD, supplemental life? That’s a whole lotta cost before sending a pre federal/state tax wage to the employee.
When premiums are $1000-$2000 per month for health insurance you have an incentive to higher the best employees and the fewest of them to accomplish the task at hand. Look for them to get leaner to maintain profit expectations.
At the core of nearly every bad thing in the US is INFLATION created by a deficit-spending government with ever more intrusive policies and programs that is “financed” by bankers ensuring there is money for that, inflating away the debt burden upon anyone and everyone.
Inflation. Something they haven’t properly defined nor measured well, same as the governments poor way of governing. Corporations have more tools to adjust to inflation than households, one of them is innovation away from the need of expensive labor. Labor, however, needs to buy housing, at least 4 types of insurance, permission to stay in their home (property taxes), transportation, fuel, electricity, communication, health care, clothing and by gosh some entertainment to get through this life.
The everything bubble has persisted for so long now that entire generations don’t even know what a non-pandemic recession or stock market retreat looks like. Gonna be interesting to see how folks react. We know how governments will react–same as always: print more.
What happens if:
The SCOTUS rules against Trumps tariffs and the government has to refund said tariffs ~ while the government is closed.
I presume they can’t make the refunds for lack of available funds and will be in default?
Does our credit rating get trashed at that point?
Moodys already bitch slapped Trump with a downgrade to Aa1 in May of 2025 citing “instability of governance”. Thank the Trump administration.
It is likely that we will be facing the combination of refunding tariffs, restarting the government and paying the back pay & interest… plus the normal funding needs and rebuilding the checkbook balance. All at once.
This will cause a flood of paper to hit the market at the same time as our credit rating takes another inevitable hit.
Elections have consequences!
Trump’s second term is already turning into a disaster, and it’s entirely his fault. In theory, there is not much wrong about most of his policy goals, but the methods and execution of said policies have been so inept and incompetent you have to wonder if it’s deliberate – because the scale of the failure is so large. The buck strops at the President’s desk, as always.
The disastrous foreign policy comes from: when your cabinet is chosen by Israel based on loyalty to Israel, and made up of brainless neo-cons, you get bad results, because Israel First = America Last, and neo-cons always fail at everyting anyway. Double the stupid on that front.
The disastrous economic policies come from a basic failure to understand how economies work. Mish could have given Trump some good points, but he doesn’t take advice, as he always knows better, or so he imagines. Like tariffs, in Trump’s mind “somebody else” pays them, in reality the end-user/importer pays them
I’ve watched Trump, Bessent and Lutnick make vacuous statements detached from reality on may occasions, and I always wonder: are they really that stupid, or just playing the part, even though they know deep down it’s wrong. Trump seems to be a weathervane who parrots whatever the last guy he spoke to said to him, unitl he speaks to someone else.
The recemt 60 Minute interview was telling, he bald-faced lied about grocery inflation – proving he knows nothing about the life of ordinary citizens, who confront that inflation every week when they buy groceries. When you are a billionaire, you send a servant out to the grocery store, and you don’t care about the size of the bill, it is just irrelevant. This kind of “then let them eat cake” talk loses elections, and sometimes your head.
In short, when you apply The Stupidity Principle, you get the stupid results.
Shouldn’t you be hiding in a tunnel in Gaza?
People are waking up, Jojo, you can’t stop that… Your short dismissive messages are just indications of not having any argument.
Please detail how blanket support of Israeli genocide policies ( their own words convict them) has helped advance American national interests…..I’m waiting.
The world is repulsed by Israel and the US blank check they have. But the views and money of a few Zionist billionaires are more important in Washington, of course. This is highly damaging to American national interests, but that does not matter to them, or you obviously.
How’s the weather in Tel Aviv?
No genocide is or has occured in Gaza dumbo. In fact, the population of Gaza is now HIGHER than before Oc 7.2023 due to unrestrained baby making!
What’s the latest on the Brooklyn tunnels. Are they still occupied? Is it still a hiding place?
Trump is a bankruptcy expert. Trump is not a business or economy builder. He is morally bankrupt as well.
When the government reopens the vote that sill take him down will occur. In the meantime the SCOTUS should be striking down his insane tariff policies and when the government fails to reimburse businesses for the tariffs collected (plus interest), the US will be in default.
Moody’s already downgraded our credit to Aa1 in May of 2025 because of the lack of coherent governance. S&P as well as Fitch should drop theirs from AA+ pretty soon.
I would give the US under Trump “Junk Bond” ratings because Trump is flat out failing!
There’s no evidence of increasing unemployment claims at the state level.
The FRED charts I posted last week currently show initial claims data through 10/25, and continued claims through 10/18.
Both claims levels are the same as last year.
Mish, I presume these numbers don’t factor in job losses due to retirement? If that’s true then with so many Boomers retiring the numbers are even worse jobs wise because companies are having to lay off over and above what they are losing to retirement!
LOWER INTEREST RATES TO ZERO! /s
Stocks half price in 3 to 4 months time.
This is simply the everything bubble popping. Electing a guy that managed to bankrupt a casino only brought forward the collapse by a few years.
According to the Stats Provided, the following would be true:
From 2007-2009 we had a total of 3,280,287 Individuals.
From 2023-2025 we have had a total of 2,429,461 Individuals.
Side Note: In 2020 Alone, we had 2,304,755 Individuals.
And
2010-2012 = 1,659,417 Individuals.
2013-2015 = 1,590,732 Individuals.
2016-2018 = 1,484,344 Individuals.
2019-2021 = $3,219,281 Individuals.
Let’s see where we are, at the very end of 2025, and see what role Tariffs and DOGE, if any, will play in all of this by Year End. From the suggested amounts of money expected to, and has already in some cases, been coming ashore, we should have work for a good number of these people on the way.
If it’s that bad, some could be hired in advance to lock them up perhaps? Feds could decide that unemployment is worse, than possibly partially subsidizing the companies to hire them 2-3 months early. They can train during this time too, so when the time comes that they are starting to pay them 100%, they will be much more valuable.
A Win/Win?
There hasn’t been a real recession in 16 years. Again, the pandemic 4-week slowdown doesn’t count.
It’s obvious that the BLS cooked the jobs books under Biden and up until recently under Trump. Most importantly, the Fed has destroyed about $3T in liquidity. Finally, a strong argument can be made that horrible jobs reports in the early part of the Trump administration put the Fed about 50 BP behind the curve. There’s simply no way inflation has room to move materially higher in the coming months, unless all of this AI infrastructure spending suddenly translates into higher-than-expected economic growth & prices. It might to some degree, but I think it’s impact on the larger economy is limited. And we made it through an entire hurricane season completely unscathed, meaning construction related spending will be down significantly compared to normal years.
Just like the transitory inflation from 2021, the Fed has now made a second error thinking inflation would rise more than it has due to tariffs. At every turn over the last five years, the Fed has been wrong.
All of the Trump haters around here have legitimate reasons to point some blame at Trump, if we teeter into a recession. Deporting 2M illegals in less than 3 quarters which places a drag on demand which pushes up wages and creating a chaotic tariff regime that fostered uncertainty in the economy have combined with the Fed inaction / QT to slow down the real economy, despite robust 4% GDP.
However, the fact remains that QT is placing a significant drag on the economy. As such, I would expect the Fed to begin within six months full on QE above the $50B+ per month that stealth QE will ramp up to in December. And certainly, if the AI boom falters in the next six months, then we’ll assuredly tip into a recession.
Good luck, Trump & the GOP, you’re going to need some breaks to hold onto Congress. People are legitimately worried about AI, and your administration is asleep at the wheel. I’m fine with your blasting drug boats & continuing deportations, but it’s the economy that matters in the next 12 months. Nothing else comes close.
– Most importantly, the Fed has destroyed about $3T in liquidity.
> Perhaps Most importantly, (Names Here) and the disappearance of Trillions was remarkable. I’m also guessing Covid losses, and Skimmed monies for the years that followed, and there’s easily your $3T+…
Trumps reaction to it all? https://newrepublic.com/post/202825/donald-trump-novo-nordisk-executive-collapses-drugs
Next year is looking “not so good”
Fifty-eight percent of companies plan to lay off employees in 2026, with 39% having already conducted layoffs this year and another 35% saying additional job cuts will happen before the year ends, according to a new survey from resume building platform Resume.org.
Reasons?
55% Economic uncertainty
42% Low profits
39% Tariffs/trade policy
37% Declining revenue
36% High interest rates
35% AI adoption
Hmmm
The only one of these reasons this admin has been trying to address is the interest rate, the remainder are direct effects of intentional admin policy
Unless they adopt the MTG rebirth plan, it’s gonna be bloody…
You could have just written 100% Trump for reasons. Or more accurately:
99% Trump, 1% spinless, gutless GOP sycophants.
Can SPX crawl higher > 7K until Jan: yes.
Consumers spending is up. PCE at an all time high: $21.1T. Small businesses are shrinking, but bank’s NPL/Total loans are tiny. China Xmas air shipments declined. Retailers hiring is small. The shippers are firing. Challenger announced an est of 1.3 of million layoffs from between Jan and Nov 2025. US civilian labor force in Apr peaked at: 171.1 million. In Aug : 170.78 million. 1.3M announced/171M = 0.76%. If 50% of those announced layoffs are gov workers gov labor force is down by about 20%. DC per capita is the highest in the word. Gov workers have enough fuel in the tank to go.
Well Mish – TACO says the economy is booming and prices are going down. So, either he is lying or clueless…any other possibilities lol.
He is lying AND clueless
Trump seems to be incapable of tackling inflation so no we’re in stagflation mode. I don’t see the ship turning around, especially while Trump’s sychophant Bessent is telling everyone that prices are going down.
I haven’t been impressed with a SecTreas in a long time, but with Bessent we’ve hit rock bottom and started to dig.
Its true. He means treasury prices are going down.
Well probably small factor is demand will decrease as the boomer bubble passes. Not sure if we’re there yet. There is probably a bigger chunk of the population needing goods and services that are not working.
Was pondering. Dont expect trump to come to the table for starting the gov back up. If the house comes back they have to swear in the new dem. Then she is gonna be the last signature on the files release. Trump is either in it or his buddies are or both.
Similar to bibi keeping the war going in Israel. He is gonna go to court when its over.
“Except for the Covid pandemic, these are the largest layoffs since 2009 and the smallest hiring plans since 2011…I do not believe it’s possible to turn this ship around before the midterm elections.“
So a Trump/GOP run government is the equivalent of a pandemic or a GFC. I agree that the Trumptanic won’t be able to turn either, everyone without an exit strategy is sunk. Prepare accordingly and batten down the hatches and pick a lifeboat.
Electing a bankruptcy specialist known con artist should have come with these exact expectations. But let’s never overestimate the collective American IQ ever again. We deserve exactly what we vote for.
Trump, specially Trump II, could not have happened to a more deserving country.
Many people focus on removing people from office rather than what they might be getting. So they do some heavy lifting before finding out the true game. A risk ya gotta take, imo.
Hide your sofas!
He is who Rosie O’Donnell said he is.
Because woke Brandon and Harris were better ? Surely not. It is just sad Trump betrayed the conservatives with his insane policies. The backlash will be very violent.
Someday, please elaborate on what lies within ‘exit strategies’.
Push come to shove, there is the north or the rock (Newfoundland) for my ilk. Neither sounds good.
Exit strategy implied leaving unpleasant circumstances for pleasant ones predicated on what makes you happy (i.e. leave the United States and move elsewhere). To borrow from Nomad Capitalist on YT, “Go where you are treated best.”
People keep asking me where I am moving and I’ve stated Asia (for now) but I won’t give specifics because the last thing I want is 500k Americans/Westerners following me there. If Asia isn’t for you there are six other continents to choose from or just stay where you are, no one is forcing anyone to do anything.
A while ago it was Portugal but the large influx of people moving to Portugal mucked up the visa & tax laws and immigration processes, cost of living went up and now it’s done as an escape destination.
Supposedly 66% of young people now want to exit the United States.
https://studyfinds.org/young-americans-want-out-of-usa/
IF you want out, better do it before the wandering locusts eat the cheap properties around the world.
Going to be a lot of opportunity in Gaza!
You won’t see any of it….nor will I. trump’s family will make out like bandits though
Gaza is not in Asia, learn some geography. But it won’t surprise me if Gaza comes to a neighborhood near you soon enough.
It’s hilarious to imagine this crew “turning the ship around” at all! It’s a ship of fools. They will double down on stupid and tell us it’s our fault.